1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pricing advantages of domestic and foreign natural rubber futures vary significantly. The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) takes the lead globally with its consumption - end dominance, efficient mechanism, and global leadership. The Singapore Exchange (SGX) solidifies its regional pricing core with production - sales connection, cross - border adaptation, and regional radiation. The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) has its pricing advantage continuously weakened and has become a follower due to the lack of industrial support and mechanism defects [5][40]. - The mismatch in the global supply - demand pattern is the fundamental premise for the differentiation of advantages. The adaptability of delivery systems is the core support, the market positioning and investor structure are important influencing factors, and opening - up is external empowerment [5][40]. - The SHFE has achieved the global pricing core status. In the future, there is room for improvement in aspects such as delivery target adaptation, international participation, and cross - border transmission. The global authority of the "Shanghai Price" needs further strengthening. With the deepening of the "Belt and Road" rubber industry cooperation, the "futures + spot" linkage pricing model between China and Southeast Asian major producing countries can be further studied to help build a natural rubber pricing system of "Chinese pricing, globally recognized" [5][40]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot prices oscillated and rebounded, and the basis widened [1]. - Futures prices rose, and the monthly spread turned into a premium [1]. 3.2 Rubber Market Supply and Demand - The output of rubber - producing countries steadily recovered, increasing supply pressure [5]. - Tire operating rates slightly rebounded [5]. - Automobile market sales improved significantly [5]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone also rose [5]. 3.3 Research Background and Significance - Natural rubber is a key industrial raw material. The global production exceeds 14 million tons annually, with a supply - demand pattern of "major production in Southeast Asia, major consumption in East Asia". The mismatch in supply and demand makes the pricing power of the futures market a focus of competition among countries [11]. - The core of the pricing advantage of natural rubber futures includes three aspects: pricing foundation advantage, pricing mechanism advantage, and pricing influence [11]. - The global natural rubber futures market has three core platforms: TOCOM, SHFE, and SGX. In May 2025, the Osaka Exchange listed the "Shanghai Natural Rubber Futures" based on the SHFE's delivery settlement price, marking the official output of the "Chinese Price" overseas [12]. 3.4 Overview of the Operation Foundation of Domestic and Foreign Natural Rubber Futures Markets - **Contract Design and Delivery Rules**: The SHFE uses domestic full - latex and imported RSS3 as delivery targets, with RMB pricing and physical delivery. TOCOM uses RSS3, with yen pricing and cash delivery. SGX uses TSR20, with US dollar pricing and physical delivery covering Southeast Asian ports [25]. - **Industrial Relying and Market Positioning**: China is the largest consumer of natural rubber. The SHFE serves the domestic real economy and leads global pricing. Japan focuses on high - end rubber product exports, and TOCOM is for international speculation and hedging. Singapore has no natural rubber production, and SGX acts as a bridge between production and consumption areas [26]. - **Investor Structure and Trading Activity**: The SHFE has domestic industrial and speculative customers. TOCOM has overseas speculative institutions and Japanese financial institutions. SGX has Southeast Asian traders and global institutions [27]. 3.5 Core Comparison of Pricing Advantages of Domestic and Foreign Natural Rubber Futures Markets - **Pricing Foundation Support**: The SHFE has an absolute advantage in the consumer end. China's 45% global consumption share forms a strong pricing foundation. SGX has a hub support advantage in connecting production and sales. TOCOM's traditional advantage is weakening due to the shrinking consumption scale in Japan [30]. - **Pricing Mechanism Efficiency**: The SHFE has an efficient pricing mechanism with physical delivery. SGX has a cross - border adaptable pricing mechanism. TOCOM has insufficient pricing efficiency due to cash delivery and speculative capital dominance [32]. - **Pricing Influence**: The SHFE has a global leading pricing influence. SGX has a regional radiation pricing influence. TOCOM's traditional influence is shrinking and has become a follower [33]. 3.6 Analysis of the Causes of the Differences in Pricing Advantages of Domestic and Foreign Natural Rubber Futures - The mismatch in the global natural rubber industrial supply - demand pattern is the fundamental premise. The SHFE has pricing power due to consumption - end dominance, SGX has supply - side information advantage, and TOCOM's traditional advantage weakens [36]. - The adaptability of delivery systems and contract design is the core support. The SHFE's physical delivery anchors the real economy, SGX's delivery targets fit global trade, and TOCOM's cash delivery leads to the weakening of pricing advantage [37]. - The synergy of market positioning and investor structure is an important influencing factor. The SHFE's positioning and investor structure ensure price alignment with the real economy, SGX's price reflects both production and consumption, and TOCOM's price deviates from supply and demand [37]. - The degree of opening - up and international layout affect pricing influence. The SHFE and SGX enhance their influence through opening - up, while TOCOM's influence is limited [38]. 3.7 Conclusion - The pricing advantages of the three exchanges vary significantly, with the SHFE leading globally, SGX being the regional core, and TOCOM becoming a follower [40]. - The causes of the differences include supply - demand mismatch, delivery system adaptability, market positioning and investor structure, and opening - up [40]. - The SHFE has the global pricing core status, and there is room for improvement in the future. The "Belt and Road" cooperation can help build a new pricing system [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The supply - demand fundamentals of 20 - rubber futures show "supply disruptions, weak demand, and rising inventory", and the long - term supply expansion pressure brought by the adjustment of delivery rules may limit the upward space of rubber prices in the future. It is expected that the futures of 20 - standard rubber may maintain a stable and fluctuating trend in the future [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - The global rubber market presents a new pattern of "dominated by Southeast Asia and rising in Africa". From January to September 2025, the total output of ANRPC member countries in Southeast Asia reached 8.167 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.60%. Although the supply is generally sufficient during the peak tapping season, there are short - term supply fluctuations due to weather disturbances. In November this year, tapping in southern Thailand was hindered by floods, and local output in some parts of Vietnam was also affected by rainfall or cooling. In China, the rubber - tapping season in southern Yunnan has ended, and Hainan will gradually stop tapping in mid - December. Meanwhile, the African rubber industry has risen rapidly in recent years, and the mechanized rubber plantations in countries like Côte d'Ivoire have significantly expanded production capacity [3]. Demand Side - The downstream demand of the domestic rubber market shows the characteristics of "strong domestic demand, weak overseas demand, and structural differentiation". As the main consumer of 20 - rubber, the operating load of tire enterprises has rebounded recently. As of the week of December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire industry was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points but a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of domestic all - steel tire enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. However, due to the weak recovery of terminal demand and the slowdown of real estate and infrastructure investment growth, there is still a negative impact on 20 - standard rubber. Overseas markets are weak. In October, China's tire exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The EU's anti - dumping policy on Chinese tires and the US tariff pressure have reduced the orders of export - oriented tire enterprises, dragging down the external demand for 20 - rubber. From January to September 2025, the total consumption of ANRPC member countries was 8.1833 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.28% [4]. Inventory - As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.72%. Among them, the bonded inventory was 73,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9%, and the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.67%. The continuous increase in rubber inventory highlights the weak supply - demand structure and drags down the rebound of 20 - standard rubber futures [5]. Policy Impact - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has included 20 - rubber substitutes in the physical delivery scope, which significantly expands the delivery supply. It extends the deliverable resources from traditional Southeast Asian rubber to African production areas, effectively alleviating the previous problem of short - term shortage of delivery warehouse receipts, reducing the delivery premium and the fluctuation range of the basis. In the long run, this adjustment will reshape the pricing logic, weaken the short - term price increase logic relying on supply disruptions, reduce price volatility, and create cross - regional arbitrage opportunities [6].