Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and intraday trends being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.96% to 15,755 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic Shanghai rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Southeast Asian producing areas are in the rubber - tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has seen a decline in inventory, a decrease in operating load, and obstacles in export sales with a slowdown in growth. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut also affects the market [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising significantly by 2.03% to 11,790 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is also dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, with a slight increase in supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has a decline in inventory, a decrease in operating load, and obstacles in export sales with a slowdown in growth. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut also has an impact [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-08-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期国内沪胶期货市场处在由供需基本面因素为主导的行情中。目前东南亚产区处在割 胶旺季，国内产区也持续释放新胶产量，供应压力处在偏高水平。不过近日公布的 8 月国内重卡销 量数据和新车产销数据均好于市场预期，呈现同比大幅增长的态势。随着胶市迎来多空分歧阶段， 本周一夜盘国内沪胶期货 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong pattern. Shanghai rubber 2509 and synthetic rubber 2508 are expected to maintain a volatile and relatively strong trend on Wednesday, June 19, 2025 [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and relatively strong; Overall view: relatively strong operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Since this week, the conflict between Iran and Israel has continued to escalate, with missile attacks on energy facilities, increasing the premium of energy - chemical commodities. The resonance factor in the strong energy - chemical sector supports the Shanghai rubber futures to maintain a relatively strong pattern. The negative impact of the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market is covered by the bullish atmosphere. On Tuesday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly, with the futures price up 1.37% to 14,045 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and relatively strong; Overall view: relatively strong operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Since this week, due to the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel and attacks on energy facilities, the premium of energy - chemical commodities has increased. The cost factor and resonance factor in the strong performance of crude oil futures and energy - chemical commodities support the synthetic rubber futures to maintain a relatively strong pattern. The negative impact of the weak supply - demand structure of synthetic rubber is covered by the bullish atmosphere. On Tuesday night, the 2508 contract of synthetic rubber futures rose slightly, with the futures price up 1.33% to 11,470 yuan/ton [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: As previous macro favorable factors are gradually digested, weak industrial supply - demand factors start to dominate. Currently, natural rubber production areas at home and abroad are in the full - scale tapping stage, with raw material output growing steadily and new rubber supply gradually rising. On Thursday night, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillatory and weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.54% to 13,695 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: As previous macro favorable factors are gradually digested, weak industrial supply - demand factors start to dominate. Currently, the domestic synthetic rubber supply is expected to increase, while the demand from the downstream tire industry is weak, with the operating rate down significantly week - on - week and year - on - year, highlighting the off - season effect. On Thursday night, the 2508 contract of synthetic rubber futures fell 1.72% to 10,835 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of the rubber and synthetic rubber markets is that they are likely to operate weakly in the short - term and remain volatile in the medium - term. Specifically, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract and the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract are expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly operating [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: As macro factors are gradually digested, the trading logic of the rubber market turns to the supply - demand fundamentals. With the full - scale tapping in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas, raw material output is steadily increasing and new rubber supply is rising. Meanwhile, the operating rate of the downstream tire industry is gradually returning to normal, and procurement demand is expected to increase. On Wednesday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures fell 1.95% to 13,795 yuan/ton, continuing the downward trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly operating [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: As macro factors are gradually digested, the trading logic of the synthetic rubber market turns to the supply - demand fundamentals. The approaching US debt crisis in June may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the production increase, and crude oil demand is expected to be weak. Recently, the supply of synthetic rubber is expected to increase, and the utilization rate of device capacity is rising. Although the 2507 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly rose 0.18% to 11,350 yuan/ton on Wednesday night, it is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, consider phased profit - taking or defensive operations, and consider short - selling on rallies for small and medium - cap indexes [10]. - For treasury bond futures, adopt a volatile mindset and mainly stay on the sidelines [11]. - For the European container shipping line, the previous market trading momentum has been released, and now focus on the implementation of the price increase announcement for European line freight rates. The 08 contract may be more elastic in the peak - season contracts but will consolidate in the short - term following the spot trend [12]. - For cotton, the short - term downstream demand expectation is enhanced, which is beneficial for the raw material procurement and boosts the cotton price to rebound, but the expected pressure still exists [14]. - For sugar, the supply is temporarily abundant, and there is uncertainty in making up the production - demand gap, so the sugar price fluctuates [16]. - For eggs, before the Dragon Boat Festival, the spot price has limited upward momentum, and the egg price is expected to face significant pressure in June. It is recommended to short the egg 07 contract on rallies [19]. - For apples, it is recommended to mainly conduct light - position positive spreads [20]. - For red dates, appropriately reduce short positions and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production areas [20]. - For live pigs, the spot price is running weakly. The policy restricting second - fattening over the weekend further exacerbates the negative impact on short - term prices. It is recommended to short near - month contracts [21]. - For crude oil, in the long - term, the supply side is expected to increase production, and the demand side may be affected by the weakening global economy. The price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [22]. - For fuel oil, the unilateral price will follow the oil price, and it is stronger than crude oil [23]. - For plastics, L and PP are currently weak. Consider a rebound after the price further drops, and in the long - term, they are still recommended for short - position allocation. Consider a long - position allocation for the 9 - 1 inter - month spread [24]. - For rubber, the macro improvement may boost the short - term demand for dark - colored rubber, but the supply pressure and weakening far - month demand may gradually emerge. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [26]. - For methanol, do not chase short positions in the short - term. After a rebound, it is still recommended for short - position allocation [27]. - For caustic soda, the futures market has a pessimistic expectation for future demand, while the spot is short - term strong, but the continuous upward momentum may be limited [28]. - For soda ash and glass, the supply pressure of soda ash increases, and the price is still weak. The glass may fluctuate in the short - term, and if the supply does not substantially decrease, the price is still prone to fall [29]. - For asphalt, the futures basis converges, and the price is expected to follow the oil price and approach 3400 [31]. - For the polyester industry chain, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies [33]. - For pulp, pay attention to the impact of macro sentiment. The fundamentals are short - term volatile. Sell call options at high prices to reduce holding costs or increase sales profits [34]. - For logs, pay attention to the impact of funds and macro sentiment. The short - term is expected to maintain a volatile market [35]. - For urea, the futures are expected to run weakly in the short - term until there is a new positive factor on the export side [36]. - For synthetic rubber, the cis - butadiene rubber is under obvious pressure and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [37]. - For aluminum and alumina, aluminum is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended for short - term range trading. Alumina is expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [38]. - For industrial silicon, maintain a short - position mindset before there is an effective supply reduction in the wet season. For polysilicon, the near - month contract has a basis - repair motivation, but the upward space is limited [39]. - For coal and coke, it is expected to continue to run weakly and volatile in the short - term [43]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices and hold short positions in ferromanganese [45]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro Information - In April, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March. The profits of new - kinetic - energy industries such as equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing grew rapidly [8]. - As of the end of April, China's public - offering fund assets under management totaled 33.12 trillion yuan, a record high [8]. - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18th to 19th [8]. - The US durable goods orders in April declined more than expected, with the core capital goods orders falling by 1.3% month - on - month [9]. - The yield of Japan's ultra - long - term government bonds dropped significantly on Tuesday, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance may adjust the bond issuance plan [9]. Futures Strategies Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Consider phased profit - taking or defensive operations, and consider short - selling on rallies for small and medium - cap indexes [10]. - Reason: The profit growth of industrial enterprises from January to April was basically in line with expectations. The market may consolidate in the short - term, waiting for new drivers [10]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Adopt a volatile mindset and mainly stay on the sidelines [11]. - Reason: The capital market is balanced and loose, but the bond market is weak due to factors such as the increase in CD rates and market concerns about sales pressure and fund redemptions [11]. Commodity Futures European Container Shipping Line - Future expectation: The previous trading momentum has been released, and now focus on the implementation of the price increase. The 08 contract may consolidate in the short - term [12]. - Fluctuation reason: The near - month contract follows the spot price towards the delivery logic, and the peak - season contract's price height needs to be verified [13]. Cotton - Logic and view: The short - term downstream demand expectation is enhanced, but the expected pressure still exists [14]. - Future view: Pay attention to the macro and supply - demand situation. The cotton price is under technical pressure and rebounds under pressure [15]. Sugar - Logic and view: The supply is temporarily abundant, and the sugar price fluctuates [16]. - Future view: The expected supply increase will suppress the sugar price. The domestic sugar price is resistant to decline before the import supplement is realized [17]. Eggs - View: Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the spot price has limited upward momentum. It is recommended to short the egg 07 contract on rallies [19]. - Future view: The egg price is expected to face significant pressure in June due to factors such as large supply and poor quality [19]. Apples - View: Mainly conduct light - position positive spreads [20]. - Future view: The apple price and sales volume are expected to be stable before the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in the production areas [20]. Red Dates - View: Appropriately reduce short positions and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production areas [20]. - Future view: The market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the futures price may fluctuate in the bottom range [20]. Live Pigs - View: The spot price is running weakly. Short near - month contracts [21]. - Future view: The supply is under double - negative pressure, and the demand may weaken seasonally. The spot price is expected to adjust weakly [21]. Crude Oil - Fluctuation reason: OPEC+ plans to increase production in July, the result of the US - Iran negotiation is uncertain, and trade conflicts are frequent [22]. - Future view: The price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the long - term [22]. Fuel Oil - Fluctuation factor: The Brent oil price falls, and the fuel oil price follows the oil price. The supply from Iran is a risk factor [23]. - Future view: The fuel oil price will follow the oil price and is stronger than crude oil [23]. Plastics - View: L and PP are currently weak. Consider a rebound after the price further drops, and in the long - term, they are still recommended for short - position allocation [24]. - Future view: The short - term market sentiment improves, and the downstream export demand may increase briefly. Pay attention to the downstream replenishment after the price drop [24]. Rubber - View: The macro improvement may boost the short - term demand for dark - colored rubber, but the supply pressure and weakening far - month demand may gradually emerge. Sell out - of - the - money call options [26]. - Future view: The domestic raw material supply increases, and the spot - futures spread may shrink. Pay attention to international macro factors and downstream demand [26]. Methanol - View: Do not chase short positions in the short - term. After a rebound, it is still recommended for short - position allocation [27]. - Future view: The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth is weak. The price is likely to weaken, but the probability of a sharp decline is small [27]. Caustic Soda - Market situation: The futures market is pessimistic about future demand, while the spot is short - term strong, but the continuous upward momentum may be limited [28]. - Future view: The futures price is in a discount state. The spot price may loosen after the alumina enterprise replenishment and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance [28]. Soda Ash and Glass - View: The supply pressure of soda ash increases, and the price is still weak. The glass may fluctuate in the short - term, and if the supply does not substantially decrease, the price is still prone to fall [29]. - Future view: The soda ash supply is high in the long - term, and the glass demand is not improved. Pay attention to the cold - repair news of glass production lines [31]. Asphalt - Fluctuation factor: The Brent oil price falls, and the asphalt price follows the oil price. The refinery output is lower than expected [32]. - Future view: The futures basis converges, and the price is expected to follow the oil price and approach 3400 [31]. Polyester Industry Chain - View: It is recommended to try shorting on rallies [33]. - Future view: The supply of PX and PTA is expected to increase slowly, and the downstream demand is average, putting pressure on the price [33]. Pulp - Logic and suggestion: Pay attention to the impact of macro sentiment. The fundamentals are short - term volatile. Sell call options at high prices to reduce holding costs or increase sales profits [34]. - Future view: The supply - demand situation is stable in the short - term. The future arrival volume is expected to recover in May and decrease slightly in June [34]. Logs - Logic and suggestion: Pay attention to the impact of funds and macro sentiment. The short - term is expected to maintain a volatile market. Sell covered call options for short - term spot wheeling [35]. - Future view: The supply - demand situation is balanced in the short - term, and the inventory slightly increases. Pay attention to the entry of emotional funds near the delivery [36]. Urea - Market situation: The futures are expected to run weakly in the short - term until there is a new positive factor on the export side [36]. - Future view: The supply and demand are expected to strengthen, but there may be an oversupply situation under the current export policy [36]. Synthetic Rubber - View: The cis - butadiene rubber is under obvious pressure and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. Do not chase short positions at low points and consider shorting on rallies after the basis is repaired [37]. - Future view: Pay attention to device changes, inventory, and downstream procurement sentiment [37]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: Logic and view: It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended for short - term range trading [38]. Future view: The tariff impact still exists, but the demand is strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [38]. - Alumina: Logic and view: The capacity is gradually recovering, and it is expected to be balanced in June. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [38]. Future view: The cost bottom is clear, but there is still an oversupply pressure. Be cautious about chasing long positions [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: Maintain a short - position mindset before there is an effective supply reduction in the wet season [39]. - Polysilicon: The near - month contract has a basis - repair motivation, but the upward space is limited. The supply is expected to increase in June [39]. Coal and Coke - View: The fundamentals have not substantially changed, and they are expected to continue to run weakly and volatile in the short - term [43]. - Future view: The iron - water output may decline, and the coke supply and demand are basically balanced [43]. Ferroalloys - View: Go long on ferrosilicon at low prices and hold short positions in ferromanganese [45]. - Fluctuation reason: The ferrosilicon price decreased due to possible technical trading or sentiment suppression, and the ferromanganese price had a narrow - range fluctuation [46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with an intraday view of being weakly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: Last Friday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.16% to 14,850 yuan/ton [5]. - **Driving Logic**: Although the macro - factor has improved and boosted the confidence in the rubber market, the new rubber supply is increasing as the natural rubber producing areas at home and abroad enter the new tapping season. Meanwhile, the downstream tire industry's procurement demand is expected to increase as the operating rate returns to normal. With limited improvement in the supply - demand structure, it is expected that the domestic rubber futures may maintain a weakly volatile trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: Last Friday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract closed slightly lower by 0.45% to 12,290 yuan/ton [7]. - **Driving Logic**: Although the Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and the macro - factor has turned optimistic, the approaching US debt crisis in June may cause a new round of negative macro - impacts. Also, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the expected demand for crude oil is weak. With the weakening of cost factors, it is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend on Monday [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties have different trend judgments, including trend short, oscillating short - biased, oscillating, oscillating long - biased, and trend long [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, different futures varieties are judged as short - biased, oscillating, or long - biased [5]. - For various futures varieties, corresponding trading strategies and trend analyses are provided, such as maintaining a long - term mindset for stock index futures, considering a steeper yield curve for bond futures, etc. [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China - US trade relations have eased. The State Council Tariff Commission has adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods from the US. International investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China and the outlook for the Chinese stock market [7][8]. - The US 4 - month CPI was lower than expected, and Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. Traders are betting on Fed rate cuts in September and October [7]. - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, and the US and Saudi Arabia have reached a large - scale commercial agreement [8]. - The US House of Representatives is promoting a tax bill, and the US Treasury Secretary downplayed the possibility of a quick trade agreement with the EU [9]. Futures Varieties Analysis Stock Index Futures - Consider maintaining a long - term mindset and pay attention to possible style drifts. The market has digested the impact of the China - US joint statement, and the domestic economic fundamentals in Q2 are expected to be revised upwards [11]. Bond Futures - It may be better to consider a steeper yield curve for bonds, and it is advisable to remain moderately cautious. The inter - bank funds are loose, and the domestic economic fundamentals in Q2 are expected to be revised upwards [12]. Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The focus of the market game is on whether the spot price will further decline and whether shipping companies will announce and implement price increases in June. The contract trend in the second half of the year is highly uncertain [13]. Cotton - Domestic cotton prices are under pressure to rebound at a low level. The actual orders and demand outlook are worrying, and the USDA supply - demand report is negative [13][14][15]. Sugar - Sugar prices are oscillating. There is uncertainty in making up the production - demand gap. The expected increase in supply restricts the upward space of sugar prices [16][17][18]. Oils and Oilseeds - Short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. Palm oil is expected to be weak in the short term, and soybean meal is also expected to be weak [19][20]. Apples - Adopt a light - position positive spread strategy. The sitting - fruit situation varies by region, and the inventory is at a low level in the past 6 years [20]. Jujubes - Close short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The market supply is sufficient, and the futures price may oscillate at the bottom [20][21]. Pigs - The futures price is at a discount, and the long - short situation is stalemated. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand may decline [21]. Crude Oil - In the long - term, the oil price is expected to decline. In the short term, the rebound space is limited due to the easing of the trade war [22]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the rebound of crude oil, and it is necessary to evaluate the demand's ability to bear the increase in production [22]. Plastics - L and PP are expected to have a small - scale rebound in the short term due to improved market sentiment and increased export demand for downstream products [23]. Rubber - The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the digestion of macro and emotional factors [23]. Methanol - Adopt a short - term small - scale rebound strategy, but be cautious as the supply pressure is large [23]. Caustic Soda - The futures price is expected to oscillate under the influence of the macro market, and the spot price is showing signs of loosening [23]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash is expected to have limited downward space in the short term, and glass is expected to oscillate weakly [23][24]. Asphalt - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate around 3400, and the inventory is stable with price support [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - Consider buying at low prices, but pay attention to the possible postponement of maintenance when the price rises continuously [26]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The futures price may rebound after offsetting the short - term tariff impact, but the upward space is limited [27][28]. Pulp - The fundamentals are short - term oscillating. Pay attention to the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products [29]. Logs - The short - term is expected to oscillate. Consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the long - term [30]. Urea - The UR2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a short - term short strategy can be adopted if it rises significantly [30]. Synthetic Rubber - The raw materials and finished products are oscillating strongly. Take profit when the price rises and buy again after the callback [31]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to buy at low prices. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, maintain a short - term short strategy. For polysilicon, the 06 contract has limited upward space, and the 07 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [32]. Steel and Iron Ore - The short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, but the medium - and long - term is still weak. Pay attention to the cost support level [33][34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The short - term price fluctuates with macro policies, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The price is in a downward channel [35][36][37]. Ferroalloys - Adopt a range - trading strategy without a clear trend [38].