Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expresses unprecedented optimism for the leading optical module companies, Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, despite their recent significant stock price increases [3][4]. Group 1: Valuation and Price Targets - Goldman Sachs has raised the 12-month target prices for Zhongji Xuchuang to RMB 392 and Xinyi Sheng to RMB 398, based on their reasonable valuations despite recent stock price surges [9][24]. - The expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2026 are 19x for Xinyi Sheng and 23x for Zhongji Xuchuang, which align closely with their historical averages since 2021 [4][24]. Group 2: Market Drivers - Three main drivers are identified for the upward revision of target prices: ongoing supply tightness, elimination of tariff risks, and a slowdown in the rate of price declines [5][9]. - The industry is facing a tight supply of upstream components, such as 200G EML lasers, which benefits leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang due to their scale and silicon photonics technology advantages [11]. - The recent U.S. tariff policy has exempted optical modules shipped from Thailand and Malaysia, alleviating concerns about market share loss due to trade tensions [7][14]. Group 3: Price Trends and Earnings Projections - The average selling price (ASP) decline is expected to slow from a previous forecast of 20% to 15% annually from 2025 to 2027, driven by supply constraints and increased demand for higher-end products [8][14]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng by 3% to 38% for the years 2025-2027 [9][16]. Group 4: Long-term Growth Potential - The value of optical modules in AI infrastructure is continuously increasing, with a rising "binding rate" between optical modules and GPUs [17]. - The expected spending on optical modules per dollar of GPU expenditure is projected to increase from $0.07 in the H100 GPU era to $0.12 in the next-generation Rubin Ultra GPU era [18][20]. - This trend, along with product upgrades from 800G to 1.6T and eventually to 3.2T, is expected to provide strong and sustainable revenue growth for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, mitigating concerns about cyclical risks in the industry [21]. Group 5: Reasonable Valuation Post-Price Surge - Despite significant stock price increases, Goldman Sachs believes the valuations of both companies still do not fully reflect their growth potential [23][24]. - Long-term profit forecasts suggest that peak net profits for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng could reach approximately RMB 400 billion and RMB 360 billion, respectively, by 2029 [25].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expresses unprecedented optimism for the leading optical module companies, Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi, despite recent significant stock price increases, indicating that their valuations remain reasonable [1] Group 1: Valuation and Price Targets - Goldman Sachs calculates the expected P/E ratios for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi for 2026 at 19x and 23x, respectively, which aligns closely with their historical averages since 2021 [1] - The target prices for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi have been raised to RMB 392 and RMB 398, respectively, based on three driving factors [3][7] - The expected EPS for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi for 2025-2027 has been increased by 3% to 38% due to improved market conditions [3][7] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The industry is facing tight supply conditions for upstream components, such as 200G EML lasers, which may limit competitors like Fabrinet while benefiting Zhongji Xuchuang [5] - Zhongji Xuchuang has a workforce of 7,000-8,000 in Thailand, significantly larger than its competitor Coherent, which has over 3,000 employees in Malaysia [5][6] - The recent U.S. tariff policy has exempted optical modules shipped from Thailand and Malaysia, alleviating concerns about market share loss due to trade tensions [2][6] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Resilience - The annual average selling price (ASP) decline is expected to slow from a previous forecast of 20% to 15% due to ongoing supply constraints and increased demand for higher-end products [3][6] - If all tariff uncertainties are removed, ASP declines could potentially be limited to 10%, translating to higher revenue and profit margins [7] - The binding rate of optical modules to GPU spending is increasing, indicating a growing value of optical modules in AI infrastructure [8][9] Group 4: Long-term Growth Potential - The upgrade cycle from 800G to 1.6T and eventually to 3.2T products is expected to provide strong and sustainable revenue growth for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi [8][11] - Goldman Sachs projects peak net profits for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi to reach approximately RMB 40 billion and RMB 36 billion, respectively, by 2029 [12] - The theoretical stock prices calculated based on peak earnings align closely with the new target prices set by Goldman Sachs [13]