高盛对中际旭创和新易盛这两大光模块行业的龙头，展现出前所未有的乐观。 8月26日，高盛调研报告认为，即使新易盛和中际旭创的股价近期大幅上涨，但两者估值依然合理。 高盛按最新股价计算，新易盛和中际旭创的2026年预期市盈率（P/E）分别为19倍和23倍，与两家公司自2021年以来的历史平均水平（19倍/22倍）基本一 致。 此外，基于三大驱动因素，高盛大幅上调中际旭创和新易盛目标价： 供给持续紧张与规模优势：行业产能紧缺，将进一步利好具备规模和硅光技术优势的龙头企业，特别是中际旭创。 关税风险消除：美国更新的关税政策明确豁免了从泰国、马来西亚等地出货的光模块，消除了市场对出货前景的一大担忧。 价格下跌速度放缓：由于供应紧张和更优的产品组合，预计年均价格（ASP）下滑幅度将从此前预测的20%放缓至15%。 基于以上判断，高盛将中际旭创和新易盛2025-2027年的每股收益（EPS）预期上调了3%至38%，并将中际旭创的12个月目标价上调至人民币392元，新易盛 目标价上调至人民币398元。 供应紧缺成就竞争优势 目前行业正面临上游组件（如200G EML激光器）和光模块自身产能的紧张局面。 报告指出，中际旭创和F ...

Core Viewpoint - The global AI infrastructure boom is creating a significant supply-demand imbalance in the optical communication industry, leading to unprecedented profit opportunities for the entire supply chain, particularly benefiting upstream chip manufacturers [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The optical communication industry is experiencing a structural shortage driven by AI, which is expected to sustain its growth and profitability beyond market expectations [3]. - The demand from global hyperscale AI and cloud service providers is expected to support the continuous growth of Chinese optical transceiver manufacturers [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Lumentum (LITE) reported impressive results with Q4 FY25 revenue of $480.7 million, a year-on-year increase of 55.9%, and a turnaround from a net loss of $252.5 million to a profit of $213.3 million [5]. - LITE's forward guidance for Q1 FY26 estimates revenue between $510 million and $540 million, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6%-12% and a year-on-year growth of 51%-60% [5]. - Coherent (COHR) showed stable growth, with Q4 FY25 revenue increasing by 16.4% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the data center segment [7]. Group 3: Chip Supply and Demand - The EML chip supply bottleneck is highlighting opportunities in the industry, with LITE achieving record EML chip shipments and nearly doubling revenue year-on-year [6]. - LITE is transitioning from 3-inch wafers to 4-inch wafers to alleviate chip shortages, with plans to upgrade to 6-inch wafers in the future [6]. - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a breakthrough year for the shipment of 100G and 200G laser chips [7]. Group 4: Data Center Business - The data center and communication business contributed 62% of total revenue, growing 39% year-on-year to $942 million [8]. - The company began shipping 1.6T transceivers in Q2 and expects significant revenue contributions from these products in FY26 [8].

Core Insights - The strong performance of Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR) in Q2 indicates a significant supply-demand imbalance in the optical communication industry driven by the global AI infrastructure boom [1] - Nomura Securities suggests that the current AI-driven optical communication industry cycle has greater sustainability and growth potential than previously expected, creating unprecedented profit opportunities across the supply chain [1] Company Performance - Lumentum reported Q4 FY25 revenue of $480.7 million, a year-over-year increase of 55.9%, with GAAP net profit turning from a loss of $252.5 million in the same period last year to a profit of $213.3 million [2] - Lumentum's forward guidance for Q1 FY26 estimates revenue between $510 million and $540 million, representing a quarter-over-quarter growth of 6%-12% and a year-over-year growth of 51%-60% [2] - Coherent's Q4 FY25 revenue grew by 16.4% year-over-year, with non-GAAP earnings increasing by 73.6% to $192 million, driven by strong performance in the data center segment [2] Market Dynamics - The EML chip supply bottleneck is creating significant opportunities for the optical communication industry, with Lumentum transitioning from 3-inch wafers to 4-inch wafers to alleviate chip shortages [3] - The data center and communication segments contributed 62% of total revenue, which grew by 39% year-over-year to $942 million [4] - The company began shipping 1.6T transceivers in Q2 and expects meaningful revenue contributions from these products in FY26 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Coherent's stock plummeted nearly 20% in pre-market trading due to disappointing revenue guidance for the next quarter, despite achieving record revenue in the fourth quarter driven by AI data center investments [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Coherent reported revenue of $5.81 billion, a 23% increase year-over-year, with a GAAP gross margin of 35.2%, up 424 basis points from the previous year [2]. - The fourth quarter revenue reached a record $1.53 billion, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth and a 2% quarter-over-quarter increase [2][4]. - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $1.00, compared to $0.91 in the previous quarter and $0.51 in the same quarter last year [4]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates next quarter's revenue to be between $1.46 billion and $1.6 billion, which is below market expectations, raising concerns among investors [4][5]. - Coherent's network business is benefiting from a surge in AI data center investments, with data center revenue growing over 60% year-over-year [7]. - The demand for 800G transceivers is expected to continue increasing, with initial shipments of 1.6T transceivers also contributing to revenue growth [7]. Industry Trends - Approximately 80% of market demand for optical modules is driven by AI data centers, primarily supporting high-performance networks [8]. - The global Ethernet optical module market is projected to reach $10 billion in 2024, nearly doubling year-over-year, with a sustained growth rate of around 50% in 2025 [8]. - The evolution of AI data center architectures is expected to drive long-term demand for high-end optical modules, providing growth momentum for the industry [8].

Core Viewpoint - Coherent's stock plummeted nearly 20% in pre-market trading due to disappointing revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter, despite strong performance in the previous fiscal year driven by AI data center investments [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, Coherent reported a record revenue of $1.53 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase [2][6]. - The total revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached $5.81 billion, up 23% from the previous year, with a GAAP gross margin of 35.2%, an increase of 424 basis points [5][6]. - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $1.00, compared to $0.91 in the previous quarter and $0.51 in the same quarter last year [8]. Future Guidance - Coherent expects revenue for the next quarter to be between $1.46 billion and $1.6 billion, which is below market expectations, raising concerns among investors [2][8]. - The company anticipates a non-GAAP gross margin between 37.5% and 39.5% for the upcoming quarter [9]. Market Dynamics - The demand for AI data centers significantly boosted Coherent's network business, with a growth rate exceeding 60% for the year [11]. - The market for Ethernet optical modules is projected to reach $10 billion in 2024, with a nearly 100% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by AI data center demand [12]. Industry Outlook - The evolution of AI data center architectures is expected to sustain high-end optical module demand, providing long-term growth momentum for the industry [12].