Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as one of the few private IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer) semiconductor firms in China, with strong competitiveness in its IPM (Intelligent Power Module) products, particularly benefiting from demand growth in the home appliance and industrial sectors due to national subsidies and economic recovery [6][8]. - The company is expected to achieve significant net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 640 million RMB, 880 million RMB, and 1.16 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 192%, 38%, and 31% respectively [6][8]. - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 65, 47, and 36 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, which supports the "Buy" rating [6][8]. Financial Summary - The company anticipates a net profit of 24 million to 28 million RMB in the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year, with a year-on-year growth of 90% to 122% [8]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 9.34 billion RMB in 2023 to 14.03 billion RMB in 2025, with a steady increase in operating profit expected [11]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable due to cost reduction measures and increased production capacity, particularly in its 12-inch wafer production lines [8][11].

Core Viewpoint - Guomin Technology Co., Ltd. (国民技术) has submitted its prospectus for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities as the sole sponsor. The company is a platform-based integrated circuit design firm focused on providing high-security, high-reliability, and highly integrated control chips and system solutions for various smart terminals [1][3]. Company Overview - Guomin Technology is ranked among the top five Chinese companies in the global platform MCU market by revenue in 2024, and it ranks first in the Chinese MCU market with built-in commercial encryption algorithm modules [3]. - The company was established in March 2000 and is located in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, with a registered capital of approximately 580 million RMB [5]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is approximately 1.195 billion RMB, 1.037 billion RMB, and 1.168 billion RMB, respectively. The gross profit for the same years is approximately 426 million RMB, 18 million RMB, and 182 million RMB, while the net losses are approximately 18.93 million RMB, 594 million RMB, and 256 million RMB [4][6]. - Adjusted net profits (losses) according to non-IFRS measures for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are approximately 119 million RMB, -591 million RMB, and -192 million RMB, respectively, primarily due to the impact of share-based payments [7]. Product Sales and Market Trends - The sales volume of chip products increased from 136 million units in 2022 to 190 million units in 2023, and is expected to reach 341 million units in 2024. However, revenue from chip products decreased by 8.96% in 2023 to approximately 417 million RMB, with a projected increase of 33.22% in 2024 to about 556 million RMB [8]. - The sales volume of artificial graphite products increased from 14,000 tons in 2022 to 19,600 tons in 2023, and is expected to reach 26,500 tons in 2024, attributed to customer trust in the company's quality products [8]. Market Outlook - The global MCU market is projected to grow from approximately 29.9 billion USD in 2024 to about 48 billion USD by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.9% [3].