Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is entering a new round of capital expenditure amidst unclear demand signals, with a notable shift in production dynamics between lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and ternary batteries, indicating a demand "window" in the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - Since May 2025, the production growth rate of LFP batteries has fallen below that of ternary batteries, a rare occurrence that highlights a demand "window" in the industry [1]. - Major automotive and battery manufacturers have reported significant production cuts and slowed capacity expansion from May to July, reflecting strategic adjustments in response to market pressures [1][2]. - Some leading automotive companies may only achieve less than 40% of their annual sales targets in the first half of 2025, leading to downward revisions in sales forecasts [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - In the first and second quarters of 2025, the price of LFP batteries has decreased more than that of ternary batteries, with the second quarter's decline exceeding the average decline for all of 2024 [3]. - The price of LFP cathode materials dropped approximately 10% in the second quarter, marking the largest decline among major materials [3]. - The prices of LFP electrolytes have also fallen for two consecutive quarters, with declines greater than those of ternary electrolytes [4]. Group 3: Demand Challenges - A global demand gap has emerged, largely due to "advance overdraft" effects from previous surges in demand, particularly driven by U.S. tariff policies and the "Inflation Reduction Act" [6]. - In the first five months of 2025, exports of energy storage batteries from China to the U.S. saw a year-on-year growth exceeding 2000% [6]. - Concerns about the sustainability of demand are heightened by uncertainties surrounding domestic "trade-in" policies and the slowing growth of electrification [7]. Group 4: Capital Expenditure Trends - Despite cautious demand sentiment, a new round of capital expenditure is beginning in the industry, with improved capacity utilization rates in the first half of 2025 compared to the same periods in 2023 and 2024 [7]. - Capital expenditures for industry leaders like CATL have increased by over 40% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, with certain materials seeing a shift from negative to positive capital expenditure [7]. - Major battery equipment suppliers expect new orders to grow by over 45% in 2025, reversing the downward trend seen in 2023 and 2024 [7]. Group 5: Strategic Shifts - CATL is focusing on long-term strategies, including advancements in energy storage technology and transitioning from a pure manufacturer to an energy system operator [8]. - The industry faces a dilemma of prolonged capacity clearing and demand gaps while simultaneously entering a new capital competition [9]. - The parallel of "clearing" and "investment" complicates the industry's ability to establish clear expectations for price and profit recovery, emphasizing the importance of demand certainty [9].