撰 文 / 刘宝华 设 计 / 赵昊然 7月第一天，蔚来交出销量成绩单。 6月，公司三品牌总计交付新车24,925台，同比增长17.5%。二季度整体交付72,056台新车，环比一 季度大增71.2%，创下历史第二好成绩。 蔚来三品牌呈现出协同发力的良好态势。蔚来主品牌6月交付14,593台，继续担当销量主力；乐道 品牌交付6,400台，创今年月交付新高；firefly萤火虫品牌也交付3,932台，同样创下年内最佳表现。 截至目前，蔚来公司累计交付新车785,714台，其中蔚来品牌725,248台，乐道品牌52,623台，firefly 萤火虫品牌7,843台。这一数据验证了蔚来公司三个品牌不同定位的产品，正在各自细分市场逐步 站稳脚跟。 在多重挑战叠加之下，蔚来这份答卷的含金量尤为凸显。新能源汽车市场"价格战"空前惨烈，小米 SU7的强势入局更吸走了大量关注，环境异常残酷；同时，蔚来主销车型5566正处于产品切换关键 期；加之25Q1财报后遭遇密集恶意唱衰。 然而，蔚来前期投入的价值正加速兑现，成功顶住压力逆势而上，在这场硬仗中交出了一份韧性十 足的答卷，这样的表现在当前残酷的中国汽车市场大环境下显得格外珍贵 ...

Core Viewpoint - The optical sector in Hong Kong is experiencing active performance, particularly with Sunny Optical (02382.HK), which has shown significant price movements and technical indicators suggesting a critical turning point for investors to consider [1][3]. Technical Analysis - Sunny Optical's stock price is currently at HKD 65.5, with a slight increase of 0.46%. The stock has recently broken through the upper Bollinger Band at HKD 66.69, reaching a high of HKD 67.3. The stock has shown a volatility of 10.7% over the past five days [1]. - The stock is positioned above the 10-day moving average (HKD 62.58) and the 30-day moving average (HKD 64.27), but faces resistance at the 60-day moving average (HKD 68.01). The MACD indicator shows a buy signal, while the RSI at 58 indicates that the stock is not yet in the overbought territory [1]. - The Bollinger Bands indicate an upward movement along the middle band, supported by a buy signal from the VR volume ratio indicator, suggesting a moderate inflow of funds. However, the Williams and Stochastic indicators are signaling sell, indicating a clear divergence in market sentiment [1]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support is identified at HKD 61.8, with stronger support at HKD 60.2. On the upside, the short-term breakout target is set at HKD 70.2, and if surpassed, the next target would be HKD 74 [3]. - The Bull-Bear Power indicator suggests a bullish market sentiment, but the Ichimoku Cloud shows a neutral signal, indicating that a breakout may require additional volume [3]. Investment Products - For investors optimistic about the optical sector, JPMorgan's call option (15709) offers a leverage of 4.2 times with a strike price of HKD 76 and low implied volatility. Societe Generale's call option (15995) provides 4.8 times leverage with the lowest premium and implied volatility, suitable for medium to long-term positioning [6]. - Short-term investors may consider Citigroup's bull certificate (55660) and HSBC's bull certificate (55910), offering leverage of 6.3 times and 6.1 times, respectively, with a buyback price of HKD 58, ideal for capturing short-term rebounds. For those bearish on the market, JPMorgan's bear certificate (56227) offers 5.6 times leverage with a buyback price of HKD 77 and the lowest premium [6]. Market Sentiment - Investors are encouraged to share their views on Sunny Optical's short-term trends, particularly regarding the potential to break the resistance at HKD 70.2 amidst a recovering demand for optical components. The high volatility of the stock raises questions about preferred trading strategies, whether to hold shares directly or utilize structured products for trading opportunities [9].

Core Viewpoint - NIO has reported a significant recovery in Q2 2025 after facing challenges in Q1, with a focus on organizational transformation and new product launches to drive growth [1][2][8] Group 1: Q1 Performance and Recovery - In Q1 2025, NIO delivered 42,100 vehicles, marking a 40.1% year-on-year increase despite facing sales challenges [1] - The company experienced a low point in Q1, but CEO Li Bin stated that they have reached the bottom and are set to return to an upward trajectory starting in Q2 [1][2] - Sales began to recover in April, with May continuing the growth trend, indicating the effectiveness of organizational changes [2] Group 2: Organizational Changes - NIO has implemented a "Company Business Unit" (CBU) structure to optimize operations, dividing the business into 12 core units with clear goals and measurable return indicators [3] - The CBU model has improved collaboration efficiency and decision-making, with a focus on prioritizing projects with clear ROI [3] Group 3: Market Strategy and Brand Performance - NIO is exploring unique sales models in lower-tier markets, utilizing battery swap stations to reduce fixed costs and enhance user experience [4] - The company aims to achieve profitability in Q4 2025, with sales driven by three brands: Firefly, NIO, and Lada [5][6] - Firefly brand achieved a monthly sales volume of 3,680 units, while NIO ET9 surpassed competitors in the luxury segment [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - NIO anticipates a 70% increase in Q2 sales compared to Q1, with improved gross margins and reduced expenses [8] - The company is confident in reaching a monthly sales target of 50,000 units, supported by new product launches and enhanced operational efficiency [8]

在访谈过程中，李斌没有回避蔚来的财务情况，也深知蔚来所处的经营境况和竞争环境。其认为，在 内部调整和产品推新并行的举措下，蔚来的转机即将到来。 "最低的谷底已经在今年一季度过去了。" 在2025年一季度财报发布次日，李斌在接受多家媒体访谈 时提到。 对一季度的财务表现，蔚来已有预期。背后有多方面原因：一是一季度本就是销售淡季，难以延续四 季度的涨势；二是财报周期正值蔚来内部调整时期，部分调整成效未能释放；再者，一季度蔚来产品 尚未焕新，新产品势能仍有保留。 李斌上调了二季度的交付预期，并依旧维持四季度盈利的目标。在泥潭之中的蔚来，需要向外界解释 ——今年销量到底从哪儿来？四季度盈利目标如何实现？蔚来的整改动作，是否能够带来实际成效？ 最难的时候已经过去 今年一季度，蔚来营收超120亿元，同比增长超21%。一季度整车毛利率10%，整体毛利率为 7.6%， 环比有所下滑。李斌解释称由于前期存在清库和促销活动，实际上二季度蔚来新车的平均售价已经提 升 10% 以上，毛利率也因此提升了近 10 个百分点。 相比去年同期，蔚来的销量已有明显提升。一季度交付新车 42094 辆，同比增长 40.1%。受季节性 因素影响， ...

等待翻盘。 6月3日，蔚来汽车发布了2025年第一季度财报。 数据显示，2025年第一季度，蔚来公司共交付42094辆汽车，同比增长40.1%，环比下降42.1%，其中包括蔚来品牌27,313辆和乐道品牌14781辆。 报告期内，蔚来公司总营收为120.35亿元，同比增长21.5%，环比下降38.9%；同期净亏损67.5亿元，同比扩大30.2%，环比下降5.1%。 | | 2025 Q1 | 2024 Q4 | 2024 Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Vehicle Sales | 9,939.3 | 17,475.6 | 8.38 | | Vehicle Margin | 10.2% | 13.1% | 9.2 | | Total Revenues | 12,034.7 | 19,703.4 | 9.90: | | Gross Profit | ala.e | 2,308.9 | 48 | | Gross Margin | 7.6% | 11.7% | 4.C | | Loss from Operations | (6,418.1) | (6,032.9) | (5,394 ...

Core Insights - NIO is accelerating its efforts in response to intense competition in the Chinese automotive market, focusing on product innovation and operational efficiency [3][12][14] - The company has launched several new models, including the ET9, ES6, EC6, ET5, and ET5T, which have contributed to a significant increase in sales [3][6][9] - NIO's sales in May reached 23,231 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with the NIO brand delivering 13,270 units and the sub-brand Lada showing a 42.8% month-on-month growth [3][6] Product and Market Performance - The new "5566" models have undergone substantial upgrades, with a 40% hardware refresh and over 200 standard features, enhancing their competitiveness in the high-end electric vehicle market [6][9] - NIO's market share in the high-end electric SUV segment has reached 49%, indicating strong brand performance [6] - The Lada brand has also seen a resurgence, with the L60 model gaining traction in the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan price range, delivering 6,281 units in May [9][11] Technological Advancements - NIO's new models are equipped with the self-developed Shenqi NX9031 chip, which significantly enhances the vehicle's intelligent driving capabilities and reduces costs by approximately 10,000 yuan per vehicle [21][25] - The company has introduced the "NIO World Model" (NWM), which improves the predictive capabilities of its autonomous driving systems [21][24] Organizational Changes and Strategy - NIO has initiated a comprehensive organizational reform aimed at improving operational efficiency and reducing costs, including the implementation of the CBU (Core Business Unit) mechanism [14][16] - The company is focusing on a multi-brand strategy, with plans to launch additional models under the Lada brand to cater to diverse consumer needs [11][19] Industry Context - The competitive landscape in the Chinese automotive market is evolving, with traditional automakers restructuring and new entrants like NIO adopting more mature business practices [17][19] - The industry is shifting from a single product focus to a more complex product matrix, emphasizing technology and ecosystem development [19][25]

雖然RSI跌至40超賣區域，威廉指標與隨機震盪指標同步發出買入訊號，但MACD與保力加通道仍維持「強力賣出」觀點。值得關注的是，股價已跌破所有 主要均線，10日線(63.89元)形成明顯反壓，短線若無法收復59元支持位，恐下探51.3元年內低點。上方阻力在66.6元和74.4元。 截止14點30分，舜宇（02382）報59.8元，跌1.89%。股價呈現弱勢，自5月12日股價破頂後，股價持續下跌，目前逼近日線圖的保利加通道底部58.8元，今日盤中最低 59.8元。 | 0.236+ | - 最 高 - - - - | 0.243 開 市 ----- | 0.240 | 0.2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -0.012 -4.84% - - 最 低 -- | | 0.240 前 收 | 0.248 | -0.017 | | 成交量 | | 2.42萬 有效槓桿 | 3.55 成交量 | | | 街貨比 ① = = 溢 價 | | 8.15% 引申波幅 | 61.844 | 街貨比 | | 街貨量 | -- 換股價 | 11.800 換股比率 | 50.00 | 街貨量 ...

目前，图达通是全球唯一同时拥有1550nm和905nm激光雷达技术并均实现量产的企业。公司已在苏 州、德清、平湖等地建设自动化生产基地，通过规模化生产控制成本，为企业拓展市场份额奠定了基 础。 随着智能驾驶技术日渐普及，"智驾平权"已成趋势，激光雷达行业也随之进入高速发展期。在这一背景 下，图达通凭借稳定的客户基础与多元化的市场拓展策略，正在显现出日益强劲的市场竞争力与商业化 增长潜力。 此次推出的2025款蔚来"5566"系列车型在座舱体验和智能驾驶芯片领域均有显著提升。2024年，这一系 列车型销量占蔚来整体销量的比重超过六成，已成为品牌销量的中坚力量。为保障智能驾驶系统性能， 新车型搭载了图达通猎鹰系列激光雷达，采用1550nm波长技术，具备500米超远探测距离和高精度点云 成像能力，在夜晚暗光和复杂道路场景下表现突出。这一配置进一步推动蔚来智能驾驶体验的豪华化和 大众化趋势。 在深耕蔚来之外，图达通近期在市场拓展方面也取得了重要突破。据媒体消息称，公司已获得国内另一 家新势力车企的定点订单，该车企主要定位于10万到20万元的经济型市场，新订单预计将在今年内交 付。这意味着图达通在客户结构多元化方面取得 ...

反映顶级投资机构新一季度持仓情况的美股13F报告进入密集披露期。 根据高盛5月9日提交给SEC的文件，去年最后一个季度同时减持"蔚小理"后，该机构在2025年Q1继续减持蔚来和小鹏汽车，对理想汽车则进行了大幅增 持。 Whalewisdom数据显示，高盛报告期内减持了239.3万股蔚来和24.12万股小鹏股份，环比分别减少57.1%和16.5%。截至2025年Q1末，高盛对蔚来和小鹏的 持仓规模分别降至179.58万股和122.07万股，均创九个季度以来新低。 其中，高盛对蔚来已是连续第四个季度减持，对小鹏则是连续两个季度减持。 报告期内，高盛增持理想股份150.6万股，环比增加133.3%至263.62万股，回到2024年Q3末的持仓水平。持仓市值在"蔚小理"中最高，达到6643万美元。 2025年Q1，高盛新买入376只标的，增持2189只、减持2264只，清仓标的则高达1311只。 截至报告期末，该机构合计持有标的环比减少935只至5058只，创2013年Q4以来新低；但持仓总市值仅环比下滑2.6%至6178.4亿美元，连续三个季度超过 6000亿美元。 高盛2013年Q4以来持仓总市值变化，图片来源： ...

证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 (8621)23297818× zhufz@swsresearch.com 证 券 研 究 报 2025 年 05 月 08 日 重点公司更新：整车（蔚来、上 汽、零跑、长城）、零部件 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W105） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 1. 整车：蔚来、上汽、零跑、长城 蔚来：萤火虫车型在车展表现超出预期，后续有望迎来经营拐点。在车展上，蔚来萤 火虫车型的质感、设计与用户洞察均超出预期，具备在中国市场实现规模化销售的潜力。 该车原计划主打欧洲市场，但考虑到欧洲变数，转向中国成为关键。若萤火虫月销量达 4000–5000 辆，总销量将从 1 万辆左右提升至 2–2.5 万辆，有望复制小鹏 Mona M03 的 路径——通过放量摊薄成本，推动毛利率回升，并激发市场对其 ...