研究报告 Research Report 27 Nov 2025 蔚来 NIO Inc. (9866 HK) 3Q25 规模与盈利双改善，盈利拐点已现但持续性待验证 3Q25 Scale and Margin Improve, Profit Inflection Emerges but Sustainability Remains Uncertain [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持中性 Maintain NEUTRAL 评级 中性 NEUTRAL 现价 HK$46.82 目标价 HK$50.02 HTI ESG 4.7-1.1-3.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$91.13bn / US$11.71bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$71.24mn 发行股票数目 1,946mn 自由流通股 (%) 66% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$61.20-HK$24.50 注：现价 HK$46.82 为 2025 年 11 月 25 日收 ...

25 November 2025 | 7:49PM CST Equity Research NIO Inc. (NIO): 3Q25 First Take: Operating profit beat on higher vehicle margin, 4Q25 volume/revenue guidance below expectation Exhibit 1: Nio 3Q25 result summary Nio reported 3Q25 result with total revenue slightly below expectation but operating profit beat, mainly attributed to higher vehicle gross margin from greater-than-expected BOM cost reduction. However, 4Q25 volume and revenue guidance was below expectation, with vehicle sales volume of 120k-125k units ...

NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) is set to release its quarterly earnings with an anticipated EPS of -$0.24, showing improvement from the previous year.The company has experienced a 37% increase in stock value year-to-date, driven by new model introductions and strong delivery figures.Projected revenue for the upcoming quarter is approximately $3.14 billion, with concerns about high debt levels and negative cash flow remaining.NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) is a prominent player in the electric vehicle (EV) market, known for its i ...

（本文原标题为 蔚来公司副总裁马麟：蔚来"三个坚持"助推产业提质升级） "我们坚信，只有企业真正成为创新主体，中国汽车产业才能在下一轮全球竞争中继续掌握主动权，这是决定未来汽车产业能否壮大的根本。"近日， 在中国汽车报社主办的第二十届中国经济论坛平行论坛——"展望'十五五' 巩固车优势"现场，蔚来公司副总裁马麟如是说。 产品、技术及能源 三方协同发力 马麟指出，在过去十几年，智能电动汽车浪潮兴起，推动汽车产业重回科技创新前沿，当前行业正处于信息技术、能源与汽车三大领域变革的交汇 点，而中国凭借市场规模、供应链体系、人才基础以及制度环境四大关键要素的综合优势，构建起全球独有的完整体系能力，在全球汽车产业中已从多年 前的跟随，到开始逐步引领行业发展。 "蔚来也非常有幸参与到这个进程中去，努力成为推动中国企业持续引领的关键力量之一。"马麟表示，2025年是蔚来的技术大年、产品大年和换电站 建设大年。 据介绍，产品布局方面，蔚来在2025年完成多品牌战略落地，形成蔚来、乐道、萤火虫三大品牌布局。其中，蔚来品牌坚守30万元以上高端纯电市 场，聚焦商务与个性用户需求；乐道品牌面向主流家庭市场，已交付L60、L90两款车型 ...

Core Insights - The Guangzhou Auto Show in November is characterized by a cold atmosphere, reflecting the intense competition in the Chinese automotive market, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector [1][3] - The shift towards electrification is irreversible, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) becoming the focal point of the industry, dominating exhibition spaces and sales strategies [4][8] - Traditional rules of the automotive market are being overturned, especially regarding vehicle classification and pricing, as the demand for larger vehicles, particularly SUVs, increases [5][11] Industry Trends - The trend of producing larger vehicles is driven by consumer preferences, with a notable shift towards larger SUVs that exceed 5.2 meters in length and 3.1 meters in wheelbase [5][11] - The Chinese automotive market is increasingly resembling the North American market in terms of vehicle size preferences, influenced by rising income levels and changing family structures [7][11] - The production of larger vehicles is facilitated by advancements in EV technology, allowing manufacturers to overcome previous limitations associated with traditional fuel vehicles [8][12] Competitive Landscape - The competition among manufacturers is intensifying, with many brands launching large SUVs to remain relevant in the market [12][23] - Companies like NIO and Li Auto are focusing on larger models to capture market share, with the expectation that the demand for large vehicles will continue to grow [20][23] - The upcoming years are expected to see an influx of large SUVs in the Chinese market, leading to increased competition and potential market consolidation [18][24] Consumer Behavior - Chinese consumers are increasingly seeking larger vehicles for family and lifestyle needs, paralleling the desire for larger homes, which reflects a broader trend of consumption upgrading [11][24] - The perception of larger vehicles as a status symbol is becoming more pronounced, with manufacturers needing to adapt their strategies to meet these evolving consumer expectations [24][25]

他表示，"以前智能电动汽车的纯电技术还没有发展到这样临界点的时候，很多体验都不是那么高频， 用户就觉得可能也就这样，但是我们L90和ES8让大家看到了纯电技术优势，它的本质是技术路线的优 势，加上我们可换电的这样一个架构，给用户带来的价值创造和体验提升是非常大的。" 专题：2025广州国际车展 李斌讲，"其实如果大家去看数据，大三排SUV里面纯电的销量，其实九月份是第一次第一名，十月份 连续是第一名。十月份我们看到最新的一个数据是超过了39000多台，而增程大三排只有24000多台，所 以这个量差得已经非常多了。所以数字已经充分证明了，增程大三排SUV的黄金时代已经过去了，纯电 大三排SUV的黄金时代已经到来了。" 新浪科技讯 11月21日午间消息，在广州车展上，蔚来汽车创始人、董事长、CEO李斌表示，"纯电的技 术发展到今天，有一些用户没有太多感知，但非常重要的就是减重，这个减重带来的不管是是操控的体 验，还是安全的体验，它的优势都是巨大的。" 责任编辑：王翔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The challenge for NIO to achieve its target of 150,000 vehicle sales in the fourth quarter is significant, primarily due to the complexities of its battery swap model and the need for infrastructure to support it [2][3][5]. Group 1: Sales Target Challenges - NIO's unique battery swap model allows for diverse pricing but also presents risks, as the profitability of battery swap stations is uncertain and they may not generate sufficient revenue to support expansion [2][3]. - The current delivery volume of NIO is 910,000 units as of 2024, and maintaining a delivery rate of 40,000 units per month is crucial for doubling the vehicle ownership in two years [2][3]. - The competition in the charging infrastructure is intensifying, and if battery swap stations cannot keep pace with vehicle sales, it may lead to a shortage of available battery swaps for customers [2][3]. Group 2: Perspectives on Achieving Sales Goals - Some analysts believe that NIO will meet its sales target due to its strong capital structure and the need to demonstrate progress to investors [5][9]. - The reduction in vehicle prices and operational costs is expected to boost sales, as consumers respond positively to lower prices [5][9]. - The production capacity and delivery logistics are seen as the main hurdles, but existing orders indicate a potential for achieving the sales target [6][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - NIO's strategy involves a focus on service and positioning itself as a mobility company, which may enhance its market appeal and sales performance [9][10]. - The introduction of new models and potential price adjustments could further stimulate demand, especially if the company can maintain a competitive edge in the market [10][12]. - Analysts suggest that 40,000 units per month could become a new normal for NIO, but achieving profitability while maintaining brand integrity will be a significant challenge [10][11].

Core Insights - NIO Inc. reported a record monthly delivery of 40,397 vehicles in October 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 92.6% [1] - Year-to-date deliveries reached 241,618 vehicles, marking a 41.9% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its sales forecast for NIO from 2026 to 2030 by 6% to 11%, citing improved competitiveness of new models L90 and ES8 [1] Delivery Performance - October 2025 deliveries reached 40,397 units, a new monthly record [1] - Year-to-date deliveries as of early November 2025 totaled 241,618 units [1] - The year-over-year growth rates for October and year-to-date deliveries were 92.6% and 41.9%, respectively [1] Future Outlook - NIO plans to accelerate the delivery of the new ES8 model in November, with a projected 70% increase in production capacity compared to October [1] - The company is set to expand its product line by introducing two new models, L80 and ES9, along with a refreshed ES7 by 2026 [1] - The introduction of these new models is expected to further enhance sales momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised NIO's sales forecast for 2026 to 2030 by 6% to 11% due to the improved market competitiveness of new models like the L90 and ES8, which have driven continuous sales growth in the past quarter [1] Group 1 - The company has accelerated its new model product line rollout to 2026, planning to launch two new models, L80 and ES9, along with a facelifted model ES7, which is expected to further enhance sales momentum [1] - The firm now predicts that the company will achieve full-year non-GAAP EBIT breakeven by 2028, one year earlier than the previous forecast of 2029 [1] - The target price for the US stock has been raised from $4.3 to $7, while the target price for the H-shares has been increased from HKD 33.3 to HKD 55, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - NIO's Chairman Li Bin emphasized the importance of balancing long-term goals with short-term operational objectives, stating that the company's stable operation is a responsibility to its users [1][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - In September, NIO delivered approximately 34,700 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 64%. The breakdown includes about 13,700 vehicles from the NIO brand, 15,200 from the Lada brand, and 5,775 from the Firefly brand [6]. - Recent data indicates that NIO's overall weekly deliveries surpassed 10,600 vehicles in the third week of October, suggesting a monthly delivery capacity that could exceed 40,000 vehicles [6]. - NIO is systematically increasing its production capacity, with the monthly capacity for the L90 model rising from approximately 10,000 units in August and September to 15,000 units starting in October. The new ES8 model's production capacity will also gradually increase to 15,000 units [6]. Group 2: Future Outlook - NIO aims to achieve a quarterly profit in Q4, which is seen as a critical measure of the team's operational efficiency and capability [7]. - The total production capacity across NIO's three brands is expected to approach 56,000 vehicles, with average monthly sales projected to rise from 35,000 units in Q3 to 50,000 units in Q4 [6].