Core Viewpoint - NIO has achieved profitability for the first time in Q4 2025, marking a significant milestone in its 11-year history [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, NIO reported an operating profit of 1.25 billion yuan and a GAAP profit of 810 million yuan, with total revenue reaching approximately 34.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.9% [3]. - The company's cash reserves increased to 45.9 billion yuan, up nearly 10 billion yuan from the end of Q3 [3]. Vehicle Deliveries - NIO delivered over 48,000 new vehicles in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.6%, setting a new historical record [6]. - For the entire Q4 2025, NIO delivered over 124,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 71.7%, also a historical high [7]. - In total, NIO delivered over 320,000 vehicles in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 46.9% [8]. Product Strategy - The success of NIO's new generation SUV ES8 and the L90 model has significantly contributed to its sales performance [10][19]. - The ES8 achieved a monthly delivery of 22,000 units in December 2025, accounting for nearly 70% of NIO's total sales, with a gross margin of 20% [18]. - The L90 model, launched earlier, sold over 40,000 units within four months, serving as a turning point for NIO's annual sales growth [19]. Management and Future Goals - NIO's CEO, Li Bin, has implemented a long-term equity incentive plan that ties his compensation to the company's market value and net profit [8]. - NIO aims to achieve profitability for the entire year of 2026, with plans to expand its SUV product lineup to cover a broader market [23][28]. - The company is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements, with a commitment to maintain R&D investments of 2 to 2.5 billion yuan per quarter [33][36]. Industry Context - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China reached 62.2% in December 2025, indicating a significant shift in the automotive market [25]. - NIO's recent profitability reflects the competitive landscape of the new energy vehicle industry, which is characterized by intense market competition [26].

证券研究报告 蔚来 (NIO US) Q4 扭亏为盈，看好 ES9 和 L80 新车 2026 年 3 月 13 日│美国 乘用车 公司 25 年总营收/归母净利 875/-156 亿元，同比+33 %/减亏 31%，营收创 历史新高。25Q4 营收 347 亿，同比+76%，归母净利 1.2 亿，24 年同期为 净亏损 71.3 亿，首次实现单季度盈利转正，核心源于 25 年上市的 ES8 和 L90 交付高增，并贡献高毛利（改善产品结构），以及 CBU 管理系统下的 人员端费用优化。考虑 26 年 ES8、L90 等有望继续放量，新车 ES9、L80 车型周期强势，维持"买入"评级。 ES8 和 L90 带动盈利向好，公司费用端持续改善 25Q4 公司销售新车 12.5 万辆，同比+71.7%，其中主品牌，乐道分别销售 6.7/3.8 万辆，同比+27.8/+92.1%，环比+84.3%/1.7%，萤火虫销售 1.9 万 辆，环比+52.8%，三大品牌交付量均创单季度历史新高。全新 ES8 和乐道 L90 车型竞争力突出，成为销量核心支撑。25 全年综合毛利率 13.6%，同 比+3.7pct；汽车毛利率 ...

证券研究报告 蔚来 (NIO US) Q4 扭亏为盈，看好 ES9 和 L80 新车 2026 年 3 月 13 日│美国 乘用车 公司 25 年总营收/归母净利 875/-156 亿元，同比+33 %/减亏 31%，营收创 历史新高。25Q4 营收 347 亿，同比+76%，归母净利 1.2 亿，24 年同期为 净亏损 71.3 亿，首次实现单季度盈利转正，核心源于 25 年上市的 ES8 和 L90 交付高增，并贡献高毛利（改善产品结构），以及 CBU 管理系统下的 人员端费用优化。考虑 26 年 ES8、L90 等有望继续放量，新车 ES9、L80 车型周期强势，维持"买入"评级。 ES8 和 L90 带动盈利向好，公司费用端持续改善 25Q4 公司销售新车 12.5 万辆，同比+71.7%，其中主品牌，乐道分别销售 6.7/3.8 万辆，同比+27.8/+92.1%，环比+84.3%/1.7%，萤火虫销售 1.9 万 辆，环比+52.8%，三大品牌交付量均创单季度历史新高。全新 ES8 和乐道 L90 车型竞争力突出，成为销量核心支撑。25 全年综合毛利率 13.6%，同 比+3.7pct；汽车毛利率 ...

Summary of NIO Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NIO Inc. (NIO/9866.HK) - **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) sector in China Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - NIO achieved its first operational break-even results in 4Q25, with expectations for stable vehicle margins in 1Q26E, primarily due to a high delivery mix of the ES8 model and raw material cost inflation not fully reflected yet [1][2] - The company revised its 2026E-28E non-GAAP net profit estimates from Rmb-5.6bn/-1.6bn/1.3bn to Rmb-2.9bn/1.3bn/3.6bn, reflecting higher-than-expected margin guidance and operational expense optimization [2] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 16.0% in 2026E from 13.6% in 2025, driven by a better model mix and economies of scale [2] Model Pipeline and Product Launches - NIO's 2026 model pipeline will focus on large SUVs, including the ES9, L80, and a new large 5-seat SUV, with launches planned for Q2 and Q3 [1][6] - The company aims for a 40%-50% volume growth target in 2026, with Q1 delivery guidance set at 80k-83k units [7] Cost Management and Profitability - Management has implemented cost control measures since March 2025, leading to adjusted operating profit in 4Q25 for the first time [9] - R&D expenses are projected to decline to Rmb9bn in 2026E from Rmb11bn in 2025, with a maintained quarterly non-GAAP R&D expense of Rmb2-2.5bn [7] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of 4Q25, NIO reported Rmb30bn in net cash, an increase from Rmb20bn in 3Q25, driven by strong sales and improving profitability [7] - Payable days increased to 261 days and receivable days to 73 days, indicating potential cash flow sensitivity [1][7] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - NIO's market share in the NEV segment has decreased from 3.8% in 2020 to 2.3% in 2025 due to intensified competition [9] - The company is focusing on improving model competitiveness and expanding its product lineup to regain market share [9] Valuation and Price Target - NIO's stock is trading at 0.8x 2026E P/S, in line with the average for the China auto OEM sector [3] - The 12-month DCF-based target price remains unchanged at US$6.6/HK$52, with an expected upside of 15.8% for ADR and 19.5% for H-share [8][10] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include stronger government policy support for the auto industry and potential lower-than-expected sales volume due to competition [10] - The company faces ongoing cost pressures from rising raw material prices, which could impact profitability in the near term [7][9] Additional Important Information - NIO's brands include Nio (premium BEV), Onvo (mid-end family market), and Firefly (niche boutique market) [9] - The company is also making advancements in intelligent driving technology and self-designed chips, with plans for mass production of a second-generation automotive-grade chip [7]

10 March 2026 | 8:04PM CST Equity Research NIO Inc. (NIO): 4Q25 First Take: Operating profit beat on cost saving, with higher loss from equity investees; Neutral Nio reported 4Q25 result with total revenue in line with GSe, EBIT beat on better SG&A cost savings, but Non-GAAP net income missed mainly from expanding losses from equity investees. 1Q26 volume and revenue guidance was largely in line with expectations, with vehicle sales volume of 80k-83k units (+7%/-8% vs. GSe /Consensus at the midpoint) and re ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, total revenues reached RMB 34.7 billion, up 75.9% year-over-year and 59% quarter-over-quarter [24] - Vehicle sales were RMB 31.6 billion, representing an increase of 80.9% year-over-year and 64.6% quarter-over-quarter [24] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached RMB 1.25 billion, while GAAP operating profit was RMB 810 million [6] - The company achieved its first-ever quarterly profit with a net profit of RMB 0.3 billion, compared to a net loss of RMB 7.1 billion in Q4 last year [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, vehicle margin reached 18.1%, up from 13.1% in Q4 last year and 14.7% last quarter [25] - Other sales margin reached a record high of 11.9%, reflecting improvements in profitability from services and community-related businesses [25] - The company delivered a total of 326,028 vehicles for the full year 2025, marking a 46.9% year-over-year increase [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The penetration rate of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the premium segment increased from 14% in Q4 2024 to 27% in Q4 2025 [34] - The large three-row battery electric SUV model led the segment across all powertrain types for five consecutive months [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to launch three new models in 2026, further strengthening its product portfolio in the premium large vehicle segment [23] - The company is committed to investing in 12 full-stack technology domains for smart EVs to ensure leadership in products and technology [23] - The Power Swap network is seen as a unique competitive advantage, with over 3,800 stations installed and plans to expand by 1,000 new stations annually [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges in the auto industry but remains confident in achieving a year-over-year volume growth target of 40%-50% for 2026 [40] - The company expects to maintain vehicle gross margin at a similar level as in Q4 2025 despite rising raw material costs [49] - Management highlighted the importance of the Power Swap system as a systematic solution to address mismatched life cycles of vehicles and batteries [81] Other Important Information - The company achieved positive free cash flow for two consecutive quarters and positive operating cash flow for the full year of 2025 [7] - The smart driving chip subsidiary, GeniTech, raised CNY 2.257 billion in its first round of equity financing, enhancing its R&D capabilities [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the plan for product and volume sales growth target in the second half of the year? - Management confirmed that despite industry challenges, they maintain a target of 40%-50% annual volume growth, supported by new model launches [32][40] Question: What feedback has been received regarding user experience with autonomous driving? - The usage of smart driving functionality increased by over 80% month-over-month after the rollout of the new version, indicating positive user feedback [42] Question: Can the company pass on raw material cost inflation to customers? - Management indicated that while there are pressures from rising material costs, they believe larger vehicle models will help mitigate these impacts [56][57] Question: What is the outlook for SG&A expenses in 2026? - SG&A expenses are expected to grow in absolute terms but will be controlled to remain within 10% of sales revenue [97] Question: What is the expected gross margin for the service business in 2026? - The company anticipates continued improvement in service gross margin, supported by the growth of the user base and operational efficiency [92]

Core Viewpoint - The company's core objective is to achieve annual Non-GAAP profitability by 2026, building on the financial foundation established by achieving adjusted operating profit for the first time in Q4 2025 [1] Performance and Operations - Key factors supporting the profitability goal include sales growth and product mix optimization, with approximately 326,000 new cars delivered cumulatively in 2025, including a record high of 124,800 units in Q4, representing a year-on-year increase of 71.7%. The gross margin for high-end models like ES8 exceeds 20%, contributing to the overall improvement in automotive gross margin [2] - The company is implementing cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures through the CBU (Core Business Unit) mechanism to drive organizational change, optimize supply chain costs, and integrate channels to improve operational efficiency [3] Strategic Initiatives - The business plan for 2026 includes three key tasks: focusing on improving R&D efficiency, expanding the charging and battery swap network, and deepening operational transformation across the organization to support the profitability goal [4] Market Outlook - According to a report by Founder Securities in November 2025, the company is expected to leverage strong cycles of models like ES8 and L90, along with the launch of new models, to target annual sales of 600,000 units in 2026, providing a scale foundation for profitability [5] - The realization of the profitability target is still subject to market competition, demand fluctuations, and cost control effectiveness. The chairman emphasized the need for a clear understanding of the challenges in achieving profitability [6]

Summary of NIO Inc. (NIO) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NIO Inc. (NIO) - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EV) Key Financial Highlights - **4Q25 Profit Alert**: NIO announced a non-GAAP operating profit between Rmb700 million and Rmb1,200 million, marking the first positive quarterly non-GAAP operating profit in the company's history [1] - **Sales Volume Growth**: Achieved 124,000 units sold in 4Q25, representing a 71% year-over-year increase [1] - **Product Mix Improvement**: The ES8 model contributed 32% to total sales in 4Q25, a significant increase from 2%-5% in the previous three quarters [1] - **Cost Reduction Efforts**: Ongoing initiatives have contributed to the positive operating profit [1] Future Outlook - **2026 Expectations**: Anticipated launches of ES9 and ONVO L80, along with a facelift of ES7, are expected to drive 46% volume growth and 48% revenue growth [2] - **Vehicle Margin Projection**: Expected to increase to 16.7% in 2026 from 14.5% in 2025 due to scale economics and cost optimization [2] - **Raw Material Price Concerns**: Recent increases in raw material prices (Lithium, Aluminum, Copper, and DRAM) may pressure margins, depending on cost-sharing with suppliers and the ability to pass costs to consumers [2] Investment Rating and Price Target - **Current Rating**: Neutral with a 12-month price target of $7.0 for ADR and HK$55.0 for H-share [3][6] - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately $10.8 billion [8] - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2026 are Rmb127.87 billion, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [8] Competitive Landscape - **Market Share Decline**: NIO's NEV market share has decreased from 3.9% in 2020 to 2.0% in 2024 due to intensified competition [4] - **Model Competitiveness**: Improved competitiveness expected with new model launches, similar to the success of L90 and ES8 [4] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: Potential for stronger government support for the auto industry and better order momentum on the upside; conversely, risks include lower-than-expected sales volume and higher-than-expected price cuts on the downside [6][7] Additional Insights - **Cost Control Measures**: Management has focused on cost reduction since March 2025, contributing to the first positive operating profit in 4Q25 [4] - **Premium Valuation**: NIO is trading at a premium EV/Sales compared to peers, justified by its free cash flow turnaround and near-term product momentum [6] This summary encapsulates the critical financial metrics, future outlook, competitive positioning, and associated risks for NIO Inc. as discussed in the conference call.

Domestic News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a mandatory national standard for automotive door handle safety requirements, effective from January 1, 2027, mandating mechanical release handles for each car door [3] - Nine departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, encourage local governments to increase subsidies for trade-in programs during the Spring Festival, aiming to boost consumer spending on various products [4] - The Ministry of Finance projects that sales of products related to trade-in programs will exceed 2.6 trillion yuan by 2025, benefiting over 360 million people [5] - Shanghai is actively supporting the development of smart connected new energy vehicles and other industries, focusing on modernizing the industrial system and promoting major industrial projects [6] - Guangdong province is supporting multiple regions to advance road testing and demonstration applications for smart connected vehicles, promoting their use in various scenarios [8] - NIO's sub-brand, Ladao, has launched in Uzbekistan, with several models introduced to the market, marking its first entry into overseas markets [9] - Dong'an Power and Lantu Automotive have established a joint innovation center to focus on next-generation efficient range-extending power and rotor engine technologies [10] - Quanzhou City has signed a cooperation agreement with CATL to build a smart zero-carbon battery factory, enhancing the new energy industry ecosystem [11] International News - France's new car sales fell by 6.55% in January, totaling 107,157 vehicles [12][13] - Italy's new car sales increased by 6.2% year-on-year in January, reaching approximately 142,000 vehicles [14] - Tesla has officially announced its entry into the Moroccan market, with a launch event scheduled for February 6, introducing the Model 3 and Model Y [15] - India's 2026 federal budget supports the automotive and electric vehicle industries through various policies aimed at reducing battery manufacturing costs and enhancing supply chain resilience [16] Commercial Vehicles - SAIC Maxus has announced a new vehicle plan, with multiple models including pickups, light trucks, and MPVs set to be released [17] - Iveco has officially launched the new Dedi 8AT model, featuring an 8-speed automatic transmission, enhancing performance while maintaining pricing strategies [18] - The Jiangxi section of the East China-South China expressway has officially opened, featuring 12 new heavy truck battery swap stations to improve logistics efficiency [19] - Dongfeng Motor is advancing the DPW (Dongfeng Production Way) initiative at its Shiyan base to enhance manufacturing competitiveness [20]

Core Thesis - NIO Inc. is positioned for growth with a multi-brand strategy and strong operational performance, aiming for sustainable profitability and global market relevance [1][6]. Company Overview - NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles across China, Europe, and internationally, with a focus on premium and family-oriented segments through its NIO, ONVO, and FIREFLY brands [3]. Operational Performance - The company achieved record deliveries of 87,071 vehicles in Q3 2025 and 40,397 in October, resulting in a 40% year-over-year growth [4]. - Revenue increased by 16.7% year-over-year to RMB 21.79 billion (approximately US$3.06 billion), with vehicle gross margins improving to 14.7% and overall gross profit rising by 51% year-over-year [4]. Strategic Initiatives - NIO's battery swap network, consisting of 3,600 stations globally, enhances customer loyalty and supports the Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) model [5]. - The company is expanding its international presence, particularly with FIREFLY deliveries entering Europe [3]. Market Challenges - NIO faces intense competition from companies like BYD, Tesla, Xpeng, and Li Auto, along with potential impacts from policy shifts and economic cycles affecting its mid-range ONVO models [5]. Future Outlook - NIO anticipates Q4 deliveries of 120,000–125,000 vehicles, representing approximately 70% year-over-year growth, and aims for quarterly break-even [6]. - Long-term targets include achieving annualized deliveries of 500,000–600,000 units, with a focus on strategic expansion, margin improvement, and technology leadership [6].