T-Mobile US (TMUS) Q2 2025 Earnings Call July 23, 2025 04:30 PM ET Speaker0Good afternoon. Welcome to T Mobile's second quarter twenty twenty five earnings call. Joining me on our call today are Mike Sievert, our President and CEO Srini Gopalan, our COO Peter Oswaldik, our CFO as well as other members of the senior leadership team. During this call, we will make forward looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. We encourage you to review th ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2, consolidated service revenue and adjusted EBITDA both grew by 2% year-over-year, with strong margins and free cash flow [6][21][22] - Wireless service revenue and adjusted EBITDA each grew by 1%, with total subscriber net additions of 61,000, including 35,000 postpaid [7][18] - Cable service revenue and adjusted EBITDA increased by 13% respectively, supported by strong retail Internet net additions of 26,000 [8][19] - Media revenue was up 10%, driven by expanded content and strong viewership during the NHL playoffs [8][20] - Free cash flow reached $925 million, a 39% increase year-over-year, due to higher adjusted EBITDA and lower capital intensity [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wireless: Service revenue and adjusted EBITDA grew by 1%, with churn improving to 1% and blended mobile phone ARPU at $55.45, down 3% from the prior year [18][19] - Cable: Service revenue increased by 1%, with adjusted EBITDA up 3% year-over-year, driven by steady retail internet subscriber growth and cost efficiency initiatives [19][20] - Media: Revenue increased by 10% to over $800 million, with improved EBITDA driven by NHL playoffs and higher Toronto Blue Jays revenue [20][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The wireless market is expected to grow about 3% for the full year, with Q2 growth estimated at around 2.5% [55] - The competitive environment remains intense, impacting ARPU and subscriber growth, but the company is focused on improving customer retention and value propositions [56][57] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on deleveraging and maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet while investing in growth [5][24] - The acquisition of a 75% controlling interest in MLSE is expected to unlock significant value in sports and media assets, with a pro forma estimate of $3.9 billion in revenue for 2025 [5][26] - The company aims to monetize its sports assets and strengthen its balance sheet, with ongoing discussions about various options [41][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about returning to growth in cable and maintaining discipline in wireless and media segments [4][6] - The company highlighted the importance of government leadership in fostering competition and investment in the telecommunications sector [15][16] - Future guidance for 2025 reflects a service revenue growth expectation of 3% to 5%, with adjusted EBITDA unchanged at 0% to 3% [27][28] Other Important Information - The company launched satellite to mobile texting, expanding coverage significantly across Canada [10][11] - Capital expenditures decreased by 17% year-over-year, reflecting a focus on lowering capital intensity while investing in network infrastructure [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on 2025 guidance and core telecom outlook - Management confirmed that the updated guidance reflects the inclusion of MLSE and shows a return to growth in cable and continued growth in wireless [31] Question: MLSE performance expectations - Management indicated that it is too early to provide specific guidance for MLSE's performance but emphasized the clean aggregation of businesses for 2025 [34][36] Question: Monetization of sports assets - Management acknowledged significant underlying value in sports assets and is focused on monetizing them to strengthen the balance sheet [41][42] Question: Sustainability of cable EBITDA growth - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of cable growth due to market share performance and ongoing cost efficiency initiatives [43][44] Question: Competitive environment in wireless - Management noted that the wireless market is experiencing lower growth due to reduced immigration but remains optimistic about subscriber growth and ARPU improvement [55][56] Question: Wireless roaming impact on service revenue - Management highlighted that roaming has been a headwind but expects travel to pick up, which could positively impact service revenue [61][62] Question: CapEx profile and potential reductions - Management indicated a focus on driving lower capital intensity in cable, with ongoing efforts to prioritize investments [102][103] Question: Multi-line discounts impact on ARPU - Management stated that while multi-line discounts may dilute ARPU, they are expected to generate incremental service revenue [110][111] Question: Synergies related to MLSE deal - Management confirmed that it is too early to discuss specific synergies from the MLSE deal, but planning is underway [112][113]

Group 1 - Qualcomm showcased its cutting-edge technologies in various fields including 5G Advanced, AI, smartphones, PCs, automotive, XR, and IoT at the third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo [1][3] - The company aims to deepen collaboration with Chinese partners, leveraging 5G-A and AI technologies to promote cross-industry and cross-regional ecosystem synergy [3][11] - Qualcomm's "Wireless Care" initiative provided 5G-A network services at the expo, utilizing 26GHz high-frequency spectrum to support high-bandwidth applications and seamless Wi-Fi coverage [3][6] Group 2 - In the PC sector, ASUS and Lenovo's AI PCs highlighted the capabilities of the Snapdragon X Elite platform, with over 85 AI PC devices launched and expectations to exceed 100 by next year [6] - The XR field featured products from Xiaomi, Thunderbird, Yingmu, and PICO, showcasing immersive experiences powered by Snapdragon platforms [6][7] - In the automotive sector, the Ideal MEGA vehicle, equipped with the fourth-generation Snapdragon cockpit platform, demonstrated advanced graphics processing and AI capabilities for enhanced user interaction [7][9] Group 3 - Qualcomm's new enterprise brand "Qualcomm Leap" was introduced, showcasing applications in robotics, industrial, agricultural, and retail sectors, highlighting the company's strengths in edge AI and low-power computing [9] - The company emphasizes the importance of open collaboration in the global supply chain and aims to continue deepening partnerships to achieve technological innovation and industry application integration [11]

Core Viewpoint - The communication industry is at a critical juncture requiring transformation, particularly in the Chinese market, which is characterized by a large user base and strong demand for 5G capabilities, yet faces challenges such as weak monetization and low user value [2][3]. Industry Overview - China has approximately 1.4 billion users, with the three major telecom operators generating around 1.96 trillion yuan in revenue, while the U.S. with 345 million users generates over 3.1 trillion yuan, and Japan with 125 million users generates over 1.3 trillion yuan [2]. - Despite leading in infrastructure coverage and performance, Chinese operators are experiencing a common industry issue of "incremental growth without revenue increase," which is exacerbated by the rise of mobile internet, cloud computing, and AI technologies [2][3]. AI Integration in Communication - AI applications in the communication sector can be categorized into two parts: AI for Network, which enhances network planning and management, and Network for AI, which ensures that telecom networks support future AI services effectively [3]. - The telecom industry has historically focused on providing consistent network connectivity, but declining revenues necessitate a shift towards platform-based network services that offer differentiated connections tailored to various applications and user needs [3][4]. Business Model Transformation - Ericsson aims to create higher value through differentiated network connections and assist the telecom industry in developing new business models, leveraging high-performance programmable networks and AI technologies [4][5]. - The challenge for enterprise users lies in upgrading networks to support more use cases and complex demands, with the benefits of differentiated network connections being clearer in terms of enhanced productivity [4][5]. Consumer Market Dynamics - In the consumer sector, Ericsson seeks to enhance user experience through superior and differentiated network connections, although the willingness to pay among users remains limited [4][5]. - The consumer market's size and subscription volume imply that even a small shift towards differentiated network services could lead to significant market changes [4]. Current Market Challenges - The scale of 5G commercial applications in China is still underdeveloped, and telecom operators are encouraged to pursue new use cases without waiting for complete technological maturity, emphasizing the need for synergy between business models and technology [6]. - Examples from the U.S. and Singapore illustrate how operators have built competitive advantages through differentiated network connections, highlighting the potential for similar strategies in the Chinese market [6].

Core Insights - T-Mobile and Verizon are major players in the U.S. telecommunications industry, each with distinct competitive advantages and challenges [3][19]. Verizon's Position - Verizon boasts one of the most efficient wireless networks in the U.S., focusing on customer-centric planning and strategic investments to enhance its 5G capabilities [4][19]. - The company has launched Verizon Frontline Network Slice to provide dedicated 5G capacity for frontline workers, enhancing public safety communications [5]. - Verizon Business Assistant, powered by generative AI, aims to streamline interactions for small business owners, indicating a diversification of revenue streams [6]. - Despite these strengths, Verizon faces intense competition from T-Mobile and AT&T, leading to increased promotional spending that pressures margins [7][19]. T-Mobile's Position - T-Mobile is experiencing growth in postpaid services and has rolled out a nationwide 5G advanced network that incorporates AI and machine learning for optimal resource utilization [8][10]. - The company supports a wide range of platforms, including IoT devices and wearables, enhancing user experience with low latency and high throughput [9][10]. - T-Mobile is actively diversifying its operations through acquisitions, such as Blis and Vistar Media, to strengthen its advertising solutions and expand broadband access [12]. - However, T-Mobile also faces competitive pressures that strain pricing and margins, necessitating significant investments in network advancements and promotions [11][19]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects T-Mobile's 2025 sales and EPS growth at 5.91% and 9.32%, respectively, with a recent EPS estimate improvement of 1.44% [13]. - For Verizon, the 2025 sales growth is estimated at 1.71%, with EPS projected to increase by 2.18%, showing no change in EPS estimates over the past 60 days [14]. Price Performance - T-Mobile's shares trade at a forward P/E ratio of 21.24, significantly higher than Verizon's 9.2, indicating differing market valuations [17]. - Over the past year, T-Mobile has outperformed with a gain of 45.4%, compared to Verizon's 9.7% increase and the industry's growth of 34.4% [20].