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泸州老窖(000568):经营仍有压力,调整幅度可控
CMS· 2025-10-31 02:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue and net profit decline of 9.8% and 13.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with revenues at 6.67 billion and net profit at 3.10 billion [1][7]. - The overall demand in the industry remains suppressed, particularly in July and August, leading to a more challenging environment compared to Q2, although the company's adjustments have kept the quarterly decline manageable [1][7]. - The company is waiting for signs of improved consumer sales activity, as it has maintained a strong pricing strategy despite a decline in sales of its premium product line [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for 2023 is 30.23 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20%, but a decline of 14% is expected in 2025 [2][15]. - The company's operating profit for 2023 is estimated at 17.84 billion, with a growth of 29%, but a decrease of 15% is anticipated in 2025 [2][15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 13.25 billion in 2023, with a growth of 28%, but a decline of 16% is expected in 2025 [2][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is revised down to 7.73 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17 times [7]. Company Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 87.2% in Q3 2025, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points, with a notable decline in the sales of its premium products [7]. - The company has a strong channel management capability, which has helped mitigate the impact of declining sales [7]. - The company’s cash flow from operations in Q3 2025 was 3.76 billion, down 11.4% year-on-year [7].