今日（2.24），大消费板块冲高回落，盘初一度涨超1%，规模领先的消费ETF（159928）转跌0.64%，盘中成交额已超3.6亿元！资金再度青睐，盘中获2400 万份净申购。最新规模超223亿元，同类持续领先！ 消息面上，春节出行强度提升，春节假期前6日全社会累计跨区域人员流动量增速较春运返乡阶段进一步上行。消费迎来开门红，商品消费需求旺盛、服务 消费活力满满。旅游市场热度高涨，"分段式过年"普及，主题上"南下避寒、北上冰雪"双线并行，出入境旅游双向增长。春节档电影方面，票房明显走弱。 政策面上，高层杂志发表重要文章《当前经济工作的重点任务》；我国将对53个非洲建交国全面实施零关税举措；加大农村地区企业上市辅导培育力度，帮 助更多企业利用多层次资本市场进行融资；三部门发布重要五年规划期间支持科技创新进口税收优惠政策。 东吴证券指出，历史上A股"春节效应"特征显著，节后资金有望"重振旗鼓"带动量价共振修复，A股有望迎来积极开局。春节休市期间全球股市多数上涨， 全球风险偏好较优。流动性层面，美降息路径虽存变数，但市场对全年流动性预期未显著恶化；离岸人民币汇率假期运行平稳。内需方面，动能稳步修复。 产业趋势层面， ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 信心逐步企稳 白酒春节渠道跟踪报告 消费品/食品饮料 本篇报告重点反馈河南、江苏、四川、山东、安徽等地白酒渠道春节动销情况， 综合来看，26 年春节期间行业动销符合节前预期（双位数下滑），各价格带分 化延续，高端与大众价格带韧性较强、次高端有一定压力。政商务延续承压， 大众消费场景需求提振显著、占比持续提升。除茅台、五粮液等强势品牌外， 多数品牌不再要求开门红，节后库存低于去年同期，渠道压力继续释放，叠加 费用兑付周期加快，经销商与终端信心逐步企稳。价格侧考虑到茅台供需具备 支撑，其他多品牌价格调整接近触底、26 年不再强压任务，后续淡季下探空间 有限，春节后行业配置建议精选强势头部品牌与动销超预期品种。 ❑ 26 年春节动销符合预期、品牌分化延续、渠道信心逐步企稳。 1）行业整体动销方面：26 年春节期间行业动销符合节前预期（双位数下滑）， 分价格带来看，高端与大众价格带韧性较强、次高端具有一定压力。分消费 场景来看，政商务需求仍然承压，家庭消费与个人聚饮等大众消费需求明显 提振，占比持续提升，悦己属性不断强化。 2）任务执行进度方面：当前除 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the sales performance of key brands is expected to accelerate in the week before the Spring Festival, with tight supply and rising prices supporting market sentiment. Despite a potential decline in financial reports for 2026, leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have safe margins in valuation and dividends, suggesting a potential dual upgrade in performance and valuation as negative factors gradually dissipate [1] Industry Overview - Sales performance before the Spring Festival is expected to decline but aligns with forecasts, with Moutai showing leading market conditions. The overall industry is experiencing a double-digit decline in sales, but confidence is gradually recovering as companies ease pressure on sales targets [2] - The overall collection and delivery progress in the industry is slower than the same period last year, with Moutai and Wuliangye showing faster delivery rates. The inventory levels of distributors are lower than last year, but the days of inventory have not decreased significantly due to slower sales [2] Product Analysis - Moutai's sales volume and price have exceeded expectations, with a projected net increase of over 2,000 tons in January. Wuliangye's sales are expected to remain stable, while other brands like Laojiao and Fenjiu are experiencing varying degrees of decline [3] - The demand for low-end products remains, but brands like Jiannanchun and Yanghe are seeing significant declines in sales, with some brands experiencing double-digit drops [3] Consumption Scenarios - Business dining consumption remains suppressed, with mid-to-high-end dining showing poor performance. However, there is a rebound in gift-giving consumption, and the demand for affordable genuine products is increasing, with the proportion of mass consumption rising to 20% [4] Future Outlook - There is potential for further sales growth during the Spring Festival, with Moutai's supply-demand imbalance expected to continue into Q1, supporting prices. The overall industry volume and price have not yet bottomed out, and close attention is needed on the recovery of Wuliangye and Fenjiu's sales and distributor confidence [5] Institutional Holdings - Institutional holdings in the liquor sector are at historical lows, with the proportion of actively managed funds in the liquor sector dropping to 3.5% in Q4 2025. The overweight ratio has also decreased, indicating a stabilization in holdings among major liquor companies [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [5] Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with the "opening red" sales expected to remain under pressure year-on-year, while brand differentiation is evident. Positive feedback from high-end liquor is significantly boosting market confidence, and a shift in style and improved expectations may catalyze liquor stock prices [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The liquor market is experiencing a deep adjustment, with sales and revenue expected to decline throughout the year. However, there are signs of marginal improvement starting from Q4 2025, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye leading the market [6] High-End Liquor Performance - High-end liquor brands are showing resilience, with Moutai and Wuliangye implementing strategies to stabilize prices and enhance channel profits. Moutai's sales performance has improved, with significant user engagement and order volume [6][7] Stock Recommendations - The report recommends stocks with price elasticity, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as other brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu, which are expected to clear inventory [6][7] Future Outlook - The liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its current cycle, with potential catalysts for stock prices including improvements in sales, price increases, and inventory reduction. Positive signals from policy changes could further enhance market sentiment [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the stability in the production volume of Moutai and the cyclical layout of food products [1][15]. Core Insights - Moutai's production volume for 2026 is set to remain stable, with a focus on balancing supply and demand, and a shift from production-driven to sales-driven strategies [2][11]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in supply-demand dynamics compared to 2025, driven by emerging channels stimulating consumer demand for alcoholic beverages [1][15]. - The dairy sector is expected to see a turning point in milk prices, with leading dairy companies projected to experience performance recovery and increased valuation support in 2026 [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic planning and product innovation among key companies to navigate market challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities [12][14]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Moutai aims to enhance the market share of its 500ml Flying Moutai while reducing the production of high-value products and focusing on a diversified sales network [2][11]. - Luzhou Laojiao maintains a restrained pricing strategy for its Guojiao product, anticipating Q1 2026 as a critical adjustment period for the industry [12]. - Shouxiangu is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of over 20% from 2026 to 2030, with a focus on major products and channels [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on Moutai and other key brands for the upcoming Spring Festival, with recommendations for stocks like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao due to their potential for rebound [15][16]. - Attention is drawn to consumer goods companies such as Weidong and Angel Yeast, which are expected to benefit from cost advantages and cyclical performance improvements [16]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: improving sales volume, cyclical opportunities, and cost benefits across various companies in the sector [16]. Industry Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating market capitalizations and projected earnings for 2025 to 2027, showcasing the financial health and growth potential of major players in the industry [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in Chinese liquor sales over the past decade, highlighting a trend of "decreasing volume and increasing price" in the market, particularly for high-end baijiu [2][3]. Sales Changes - In 2016, baijiu sales peaked at approximately 1305 million tons, but are projected to drop to around 414 million tons by 2024 [2][4]. - The sales figures for baijiu from 2017 to 2025 are as follows: - 2017: 1200 million tons - 2018: 860 million tons - 2019: 755 million tons - 2020: 740 million tons - 2022: 670 million tons - 2023: 629 million tons - 2024 (forecast): 414 million tons - 2025 (forecast): 350 million tons [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The decline in baijiu consumption is attributed to reduced business banquets and a subsequent drop in high-end baijiu prices, which compresses the premium space for all baijiu [5]. - The high prices of brands like Moutai are linked to scarcity and marketing strategies, but as production increases, the perceived value diminishes [3][5]. - The article suggests that the high prices of Chinese liquor are not justified compared to international spirits, which are often of higher quality and lower price [4]. Consumer Behavior - The changing drinking culture, influenced by regulations and generational shifts, is leading to a decline in traditional drinking occasions, particularly among younger consumers [11]. - The article notes that while overall baijiu sales are declining, mid to high-end products are experiencing growth, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [12].

Core Points - The Xuzhou market supervision department aims to enhance consumer protection by focusing on issues that significantly impact public welfare and safety, emphasizing strict enforcement against various illegal activities in the consumer sector [2] Group 1: Case Summaries - Case 1: A dental clinic in Xuzhou was fined 30,000 yuan for false advertising, including misleading qualifications of doctors not practicing at the clinic [3] - Case 2: A seller in Suining was penalized for selling 531 bottles of counterfeit liquor, with a total illegal revenue of 83,724.04 yuan and illegal gains of 30,807.36 yuan, resulting in a fine of 10,000 yuan [4] - Case 3: A cosmetics store in Jiawang was fined 20,000 yuan for selling prohibited food products, specifically capsules containing banned substances, with a total sales amount of 400 yuan [5] - Case 4: A trading company in Gulou was fined 40,000 yuan for misleading consumers by using the Li Ning brand logo without authorization, creating confusion about its relationship with the brand [6] - Case 5: A food store in Yunlong was fined 30,000 yuan for false advertising targeting elderly consumers, lacking scientific evidence for its claims about the benefits of its products [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the liquor industry indicates that companies are entering a phase of pressure relief and clearing, with future expectations centered on performance recovery [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The liquor sector's total revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders down by 6.7% [2] - In Q3 2025, the liquor sector's total revenue fell by 18.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 21.9% [2] - The macroeconomic environment is affecting demand recovery, particularly in high-end and mid-high-end liquor segments, which rely on a recovery from deflation [1][2] Group 2: Sales and Revenue Trends - The sales performance of liquor companies is under pressure, with many experiencing a decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025 [2] - The pre-receipt balance for liquor companies is at a near two-year low, indicating potential challenges in future revenue realization [2] - High-end liquor companies are adjusting their product structures, while mid-high-end liquor sales are facing temporary pressure [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in Q1-Q3 2025 was 82.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 2025 saw a margin of 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points [3] - Sales expense ratios for most liquor companies increased year-on-year in Q3 2025, although some companies improved their ratios due to better cost control [3] - The profit growth rates for high-end liquor (-0.5%) outperformed those of mid-high-end (-7.6%) and real estate liquor (-34.7%), indicating a trend of increasing cost control among leading companies [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently in a phase of pressure relief and clearing, with expectations for performance recovery in the future. The focus should be on companies that show early signs of a turning point and have leading growth elasticity [3] - The overall revenue of the liquor sector has declined, with a 5.5% year-on-year drop in total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, and an 18.3% decline in Q3 alone. Net profit also saw a significant decrease of 21.9% in Q3 [12][24] - The high-end liquor segment is under pressure, with a need for macroeconomic recovery to achieve a balance in volume and price. Companies with strong brand positioning and national expansion potential are recommended for investment [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Q3 Performance and Market Conditions - The Q3 performance of the liquor sector shows a slow recovery in consumption scenarios, with overall sales continuing to face pressure. The high-end and next-high-end liquor demand remains under pressure, particularly in business and personal dining scenarios [12][13] - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in Q3 dropped by 18.3% year-on-year, with net profit down by 21.9%, indicating a significant acceleration in the decline compared to previous quarters [12][24] 2. Revenue Trends - The liquor sector's revenue has been on a downward trend, with a 5.5% year-on-year decline in the first three quarters of 2025. The Q3 revenue decline is particularly sharp at 18.3% [12][24] - High-end liquor companies are experiencing a shift in their financial reports, with revenue declines driven by pressure on major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [30][41] 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector has decreased, with Q3 margins at 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in profitability is attributed to structural issues and increased costs [2][3] - The report highlights that the majority of liquor companies have seen an increase in sales expenses, while management expenses have also risen slightly due to weaker revenue realization [2][3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies that are likely to recover first, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have strong governance and dividend yields. Other companies to watch include Zhenjiu Lidu and Shede Liquor [3][12] - The focus should be on companies that can maintain channel stability and show early signs of marginal recovery, as the market is expected to support valuations for these firms [12][13]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is actively releasing pressure on financial statements, with the industry gradually bottoming out. The frozen food sector is witnessing a turning point, while the soft drink and snack sectors maintain high levels of prosperity [3][4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The liquor sector's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 319.23 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.76%, with net profit down 6.85% to CNY 122.67 billion. In Q3 alone, revenue fell 18.38% to CNY 78.48 billion, and net profit dropped 22.00% to CNY 28.09 billion [14][28] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai showed stable growth, while others like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao faced significant declines. Moutai's revenue grew by 9.28% year-on-year, while Wuliangye's fell by 10.26% [17][19] - The second-tier liquor brands, such as Fenjiu, showed resilience with a revenue increase of 5.00%, while others like Shui Jing Fang and Shede experienced declines [26][22] 2. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector saw significant growth, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage reporting a 34.13% increase in revenue year-on-year. The energy drink segment, particularly, showed robust growth [30][31] - The introduction of new flavors and products, such as Dongpeng's summer limited edition, contributed to the sustained high growth rates in this sector [30] 3. Dairy Products - The dairy sector, led by Yili, maintained stable performance despite high base effects, with significant growth in milk powder and cold drink products. New Dairy's low-temperature products continued to show double-digit growth [4][31] 4. Frozen Foods - The frozen food industry is experiencing a turning point, with companies noting that the price war has peaked. The focus is shifting towards rational competition and value [7][30] 5. Snacks - The snack sector is undergoing strategic adjustments, with member stores and instant retail becoming key growth channels. The overall consumption environment remains weak, but the snack sector is adapting with targeted strategies [7][30]