2025年，徐州市场监管部门以"服务民生、护航消费"为宗旨，聚焦消费领域人民群众反映强烈、社会危 害性突出的问题，坚持以"打假、处劣、治虚、惩偷"为重点，严厉打击掺杂掺假、以假充真、以次充 好、以不合格冒充合格产品、偷工减料、缺斤短两、非法改装、商标侵权、虚假广告、"霸王条款""幽 灵外卖"等违法行为。现公布2025年第六批铁拳行动典型案例。 案例一 徐州市市场监管局查处徐州某口腔医院有限公司虚假宣传案 2025年5月22日，徐州市市场监管局根据市卫健委移交线索，对徐州某口腔医院有限公司开展执法检 查。经查，当事人在经营场所内悬挂含医生姓名、学历等资历内容的宣传图片，其中3名医生并非该医 院坐诊医生，5名医生学历文凭与实际情况不符。 当事人将未在其医院坐诊的医生资历信息图片，及含有不实学历的医生资历信息图片悬挂在其诊疗场所 内进行宣传的行为，违反了《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》第八条第一款的规定。徐州市市场监管 局依据《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》第二十条的规定，责令当事人停止违法行为，作出罚款 30000元的行政处罚。案后，经执法人员现场复查，当事人已改正违法行为。 案例二 睢宁县市场监管局查处陈某销售 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the liquor industry indicates that companies are entering a phase of pressure relief and clearing, with future expectations centered on performance recovery [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The liquor sector's total revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders down by 6.7% [2] - In Q3 2025, the liquor sector's total revenue fell by 18.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 21.9% [2] - The macroeconomic environment is affecting demand recovery, particularly in high-end and mid-high-end liquor segments, which rely on a recovery from deflation [1][2] Group 2: Sales and Revenue Trends - The sales performance of liquor companies is under pressure, with many experiencing a decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025 [2] - The pre-receipt balance for liquor companies is at a near two-year low, indicating potential challenges in future revenue realization [2] - High-end liquor companies are adjusting their product structures, while mid-high-end liquor sales are facing temporary pressure [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in Q1-Q3 2025 was 82.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 2025 saw a margin of 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points [3] - Sales expense ratios for most liquor companies increased year-on-year in Q3 2025, although some companies improved their ratios due to better cost control [3] - The profit growth rates for high-end liquor (-0.5%) outperformed those of mid-high-end (-7.6%) and real estate liquor (-34.7%), indicating a trend of increasing cost control among leading companies [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently in a phase of pressure relief and clearing, with expectations for performance recovery in the future. The focus should be on companies that show early signs of a turning point and have leading growth elasticity [3] - The overall revenue of the liquor sector has declined, with a 5.5% year-on-year drop in total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, and an 18.3% decline in Q3 alone. Net profit also saw a significant decrease of 21.9% in Q3 [12][24] - The high-end liquor segment is under pressure, with a need for macroeconomic recovery to achieve a balance in volume and price. Companies with strong brand positioning and national expansion potential are recommended for investment [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Q3 Performance and Market Conditions - The Q3 performance of the liquor sector shows a slow recovery in consumption scenarios, with overall sales continuing to face pressure. The high-end and next-high-end liquor demand remains under pressure, particularly in business and personal dining scenarios [12][13] - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in Q3 dropped by 18.3% year-on-year, with net profit down by 21.9%, indicating a significant acceleration in the decline compared to previous quarters [12][24] 2. Revenue Trends - The liquor sector's revenue has been on a downward trend, with a 5.5% year-on-year decline in the first three quarters of 2025. The Q3 revenue decline is particularly sharp at 18.3% [12][24] - High-end liquor companies are experiencing a shift in their financial reports, with revenue declines driven by pressure on major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [30][41] 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector has decreased, with Q3 margins at 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in profitability is attributed to structural issues and increased costs [2][3] - The report highlights that the majority of liquor companies have seen an increase in sales expenses, while management expenses have also risen slightly due to weaker revenue realization [2][3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies that are likely to recover first, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have strong governance and dividend yields. Other companies to watch include Zhenjiu Lidu and Shede Liquor [3][12] - The focus should be on companies that can maintain channel stability and show early signs of marginal recovery, as the market is expected to support valuations for these firms [12][13]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is actively releasing pressure on financial statements, with the industry gradually bottoming out. The frozen food sector is witnessing a turning point, while the soft drink and snack sectors maintain high levels of prosperity [3][4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The liquor sector's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 319.23 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.76%, with net profit down 6.85% to CNY 122.67 billion. In Q3 alone, revenue fell 18.38% to CNY 78.48 billion, and net profit dropped 22.00% to CNY 28.09 billion [14][28] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai showed stable growth, while others like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao faced significant declines. Moutai's revenue grew by 9.28% year-on-year, while Wuliangye's fell by 10.26% [17][19] - The second-tier liquor brands, such as Fenjiu, showed resilience with a revenue increase of 5.00%, while others like Shui Jing Fang and Shede experienced declines [26][22] 2. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector saw significant growth, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage reporting a 34.13% increase in revenue year-on-year. The energy drink segment, particularly, showed robust growth [30][31] - The introduction of new flavors and products, such as Dongpeng's summer limited edition, contributed to the sustained high growth rates in this sector [30] 3. Dairy Products - The dairy sector, led by Yili, maintained stable performance despite high base effects, with significant growth in milk powder and cold drink products. New Dairy's low-temperature products continued to show double-digit growth [4][31] 4. Frozen Foods - The frozen food industry is experiencing a turning point, with companies noting that the price war has peaked. The focus is shifting towards rational competition and value [7][30] 5. Snacks - The snack sector is undergoing strategic adjustments, with member stores and instant retail becoming key growth channels. The overall consumption environment remains weak, but the snack sector is adapting with targeted strategies [7][30]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the severe financial downturn of major Chinese liquor companies, particularly Wuliangye, which has experienced unprecedented revenue and profit declines, signaling a significant shift in the industry landscape [5][25]. Financial Performance Summary - Major liquor companies reported disappointing third-quarter results, with Wuliangye's revenue plummeting by 52.66% year-on-year to 81.74 billion yuan, marking its largest quarterly decline since its listing [6][8]. - Wuliangye's net profit fell by 65.62% to 20.19 billion yuan, with a net profit margin dropping from 38.2% to 24.7%, the lowest in nearly a decade [9][12]. - Other companies like Yanghe and Kweichow Moutai also reported significant declines, with Yanghe posting a loss and Kweichow Moutai's profit growth slowing to just 0.48% [5][6]. Internal and External Challenges - The decline in Wuliangye's performance is attributed to a combination of internal mismanagement and external market pressures, creating a "perfect storm" for the company [11][12]. - Wuliangye's strategy of channel inventory pressure led to excessive stock levels, with inventory reaching 5-6 months, forcing distributors to sell at a loss [12][14]. - The company's reliance on a single product line, "Pu Wu," which accounts for over 60% of its revenue, has become a vulnerability in a declining market [16][17]. Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The ongoing "strict ban on alcohol" has severely impacted the consumption of high-end liquor, particularly in government and business settings, which were previously significant revenue drivers [18][22]. - Younger consumers are increasingly turning away from traditional liquor, favoring alternative beverages, which poses a long-term threat to the industry [21][22]. - Economic downturns have led to reduced discretionary spending, further diminishing the market for luxury alcohol products [22][23]. Strategic Implications - The article suggests that the era of relying on channel inventory and government consumption for growth is over, necessitating a reevaluation of business strategies within the industry [25][31]. - Wuliangye's announcement of a significant mid-term dividend aims to stabilize investor confidence, but it may not address the underlying issues of market share and brand reputation [26][27]. - The industry must adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic realities to survive, focusing on rebuilding trust and understanding new consumer demographics [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao reported a decline in net profit for Q1-Q3 2025, with a total of 10.762 billion yuan, down 7.17% year-on-year, and Q3 net profit of 3.099 billion yuan, down 13.07% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the current market environment [1] Industry Summary - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a new adjustment cycle, shifting from a "capacity expansion" model to a focus on "quality improvement, brand influence, cultural expression, and value creation" [1] - The overall trend in the industry is characterized by "reduced volume and increased quality" [1] Company Strategy - The company is committed to maintaining price stability for its flagship product, Guojiao, while gradually shifting resources towards mid-to-high-end mainstream products [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is actively entering the high-growth segment of light bottle liquor, with the new Luzhou Laojiao Erqu product currently in pilot promotion [1] - The company aims to leverage its complete price pyramid product system to enhance overall competitive advantages [1] - In response to current market demands for lower alcohol content, health-oriented, and diversified products, the company will continue to promote its 38° product line [1] - The company will persist with its "2358+100" regional strategy to deepen and strengthen its base market, consolidating and expanding its market advantages [1] - The company is optimistic about its long-term performance growth sustainability due to superior channel price management capabilities, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,960.19, down 0.41% [2] Company Analysis: Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) - For the first three quarters of 2025, Kweichow Moutai reported total revenue of 130.90 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion, up 6.25% [6] - In Q3 2025, the total revenue was 39.81 billion, growing 0.35% year-on-year, while the net profit was 19.22 billion, increasing by 0.48% [6] - Moutai's revenue growth was primarily driven by its liquor sales, with Moutai liquor revenue at 34.90 billion, up 7%, while series liquor revenue fell by 34% [6] - The direct sales channel saw a revenue decline of 15%, largely due to a more than 50% drop in "i Moutai" sales [6] - The company maintained stable profitability with a net profit margin of 50.97% and a gross margin of 91.28% in Q3 2025 [6] - Future expectations suggest a gradual improvement in demand, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 90.46 billion, 97.32 billion, and 105.20 billion respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 19.8X, 18.4X, and 17.0X [6] Company Analysis: Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) - For the first three quarters of 2025, Luzhou Laojiao reported revenue of 23.13 billion, a decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit of 10.76 billion, down 7.17% [9] - Q3 2025 revenue and profit were 6.67 billion and 3.10 billion respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 9.80% and 13.07% [9] - The company’s mid-to-low-end products performed better than high-end products, with expectations of a 10%+ decline in Guojiao sales [9] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 46.67%, down 1.09 percentage points year-on-year [9] - Future projections estimate net profits for 2025-2027 at 12.35 billion, 12.49 billion, and 13.80 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 15.9, and 14.4 [9] Company Analysis: Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 8.96 billion for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, while net profit was 2.90 billion, down 1.38% [10] - The company’s product lines, including Qinghua 20 and Glass Fen, contributed significantly to revenue growth [10] - The sales net profit margin for the first three quarters was 34.78%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points year-on-year [10] - Future estimates suggest net profits for 2025-2027 at 12.30 billion, 12.90 billion, and 13.65 billion respectively, with PE ratios of 18.9, 18, and 17 [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) [3][6] Core Views - The company reported a decline in Q3 performance, with revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 at 231.27 billion yuan and 107.62 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 4.84% and 7.17% [3][4] - The report anticipates continued pressure in Q4, but notes that the decline in performance was better than market expectations [4] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the liquor industry as it enters a destocking phase, with stable management and organizational structure [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 231.27 billion yuan and a net profit of 107.62 billion yuan, with Q3 figures showing a revenue of 66.74 billion yuan and a net profit of 30.99 billion yuan, both down year-on-year by 9.80% and 13.07% respectively [4][5] - The sales net profit margin and gross profit margin for the first three quarters were 46.67% and 87.11%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous year [5] - Cash flow from operations in Q3 was 37.58 billion yuan, down 11.16% year-on-year, with a slight increase in contract liabilities [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation Analysis - The report forecasts net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 to be 123.51 billion yuan, 124.91 billion yuan, and 137.99 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 8.39 yuan, 8.49 yuan, and 9.37 yuan [6][8] - The projected P/E ratios for the same period are 16 times, 15.9 times, and 14.4 times, indicating a favorable valuation compared to current market conditions [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance resilience and operational toughness amidst industry demand weakness, gradually clearing inventory in an orderly manner [1] - The company adheres to a strategy of controlling volume and stabilizing prices during the downturn, with stable pricing for high-end products and better performance for mid-tier products [2] - The gross margin is under pressure due to a shift in product mix and cost factors, with a decrease in profitability metrics observed [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 231.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 107.62 billion yuan, down 7.17% [1] - The gross margin for Q1-3 and Q3 of 2025 was 87.11% and 87.17%, respectively, reflecting a decline of 1.32 and 0.95 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company expects revenues of 271 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected decline of 13.2% year-on-year, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [4][5] Product and Market Strategy - The company focuses on optimizing channel distribution and enhancing cooperation with e-commerce platforms to increase consumer reach [2] - The performance of mid-tier products, represented by the "Old Brand Special" series, aligns well with current consumer trends, showing resilience against market pressures [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 114 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected decline of 15.4% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4][5] - The report highlights the potential for digital transformation to enhance management efficiency in the medium to long term [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [6][10]. Core Views - The company continues to experience a decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with total revenue of 23.13 billion yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year, and net profit of 10.76 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year. Q3 2025 revenue was 6.67 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, and net profit was 3.10 billion yuan, down 13.1% year-on-year. The gross margin decreased by 0.95 percentage points, likely due to an increase in the proportion of mid-range liquor products [1][3]. - The company is expected to focus on stabilizing prices for its flagship product, Guojiao, while reducing inventory and alleviating channel pressures. The revenue contribution from the report may not be significant [3][9]. - The company plans to shift resources towards mid-range liquor products and enhance marketing efforts targeting consumers, including visits to technology and AI companies [3][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the sales expense ratio increased by 1.74 percentage points to 13.5%, reflecting increased spending on consumer-facing initiatives to boost brand image. Sales cash collection was better than revenue, with cash sales of 7.963 billion yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 27.22 billion yuan, 28.07 billion yuan, and 31.11 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -12.8%, +3.1%, and +10.8% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 11.34 billion yuan, 11.83 billion yuan, and 13.28 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -15.8%, +4.3%, and +12.2% respectively [3][9]. Market Position - The company maintains a strong market position with a stable pricing strategy for its high-end products. The expected P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 16.9 and 16.2 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [3][10]. - The company is expected to continue gaining market share in the low-alcohol segment due to its first-mover advantage and digital marketing initiatives [3][9].