Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, reflecting the industry's transformation pains, with structural opportunities emerging in the context of increasing demand from new energy and high-end manufacturing sectors [1][10]. Price Fluctuations: Cyclical Adjustments Under Macro Disturbances - Short-term bearish pressures are evident, driven by a rebound in the US dollar, rising social inventory of aluminum nearing 550,000 tons (up 15% year-on-year), and weakened seasonal demand due to the upcoming Chinese New Year and pandemic disruptions, leading to a 10%-15% month-on-month decline in aluminum usage in construction and transportation sectors [1][2]. Industry Resilience Cannot Be Ignored - Cost support remains stable, with domestic alumina prices between 2,655-2,955 yuan/ton and pre-baked anode prices up 25% year-on-year, while the complete cost of electrolytic aluminum has surpassed 19,000 yuan/ton [2]. Structural Opportunities: New Energy Demand Reshaping Industry Logic - The economic viability of aluminum is increasing as the copper-aluminum price ratio rises to 1.8:1, with aluminum substitution in power cables and radiators reaching 30%, and the aluminum usage in a single GW photovoltaic module reaching 2,000 tons [3]. - Emerging sectors are witnessing explosive growth, such as humanoid robots requiring 80 kg of aluminum per unit, driven by Tesla's Optimus mass production plans, and the low-altitude economy pushing aluminum demand in aviation materials, with the market expected to exceed 50 billion yuan by 2026 [4]. Global Supply Chain Restructuring - Capacity transfer to Southeast Asia is anticipated, with an additional 1.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity expected in Vietnam and Indonesia within three years, while Chinese aluminum companies are seizing overseas markets through a "primary aluminum + deep processing" model [5]. - The share of recycled aluminum in domestic production has risen to 25%, with companies like Shunbo Alloy achieving profits of over 2,000 yuan per ton [5]. Market Outlook: A New Cycle of Recovery - Despite short-term pressures, long-term prospects remain positive, with strong support for the Shanghai aluminum main contract at 23,000 yuan/ton, and pre-holiday inventory replenishment by downstream processing enterprises potentially accelerating the inventory turning point [6]. - Three major trends are reshaping the industry landscape: the high-end upgrade driven by automotive lightweighting, smart production with AI quality inspection systems improving yield rates to 99.8% and reducing energy consumption by 12%, and global expansion with Yun Aluminum's alumina project in Indonesia increasing overseas resource share to 40% [6]. Investment Strategy: Seizing the "Dual-Driving" Main Line - Leading companies with high resource self-sufficiency include Shenhuo Co., with profits exceeding 4,000 yuan per ton and a strategic layout in Yunnan hydropower and Xinjiang coal power, and Zijin Mining, with African bauxite production expected to reach 5 million tons by 2026 [7]. - New energy material leaders such as Dingsheng New Materials, holding a 42% market share in battery aluminum foil, and Hesheng Co., ranking among the top three in CTP battery tray shipments [8]. - Recycled aluminum circular economy targets like Shunbo Alloy, with a capacity utilization rate exceeding 120%, and Huajin New Materials, achieving breakthroughs in recycled aluminum technology with costs 18% lower than primary aluminum [9].

Core Viewpoint - A materials revolution driven by both policy and market forces is accelerating, with the "low-altitude economy" being highlighted in government work reports, indicating significant growth potential for aviation-grade materials [2][3][39]. Market Dynamics - The low-altitude economy is projected to consume over 1.25 million tons of aluminum by 2025, with a market size reaching 32 billion yuan and a compound annual growth rate exceeding 36% [3]. - The demand for aviation-grade aluminum is surging, with prices for aluminum ingots reaching 24,200 yuan per ton, a 23% increase from the previous year, while orders for low-altitude aircraft are rapidly increasing [5][6]. Industry Transformation - Traditional metal mining companies are facing a critical need to transform their operations to capture opportunities in the low-altitude economy, as failure to adapt could result in losing market share [4][7]. - Major metal companies are making strategic shifts, with some investing heavily in expanding aviation-grade aluminum production capacity to meet the growing demand from eVTOL and logistics drone manufacturers [8][12]. Competitive Strategies - Companies are adopting collaborative approaches, such as forming alliances for lightweight material development and engaging in joint research projects to enhance their competitive edge [13][21]. - The negotiation dynamics between material suppliers and drone manufacturers are becoming increasingly complex, focusing on both pricing and technical standards [15][20]. Technological Innovations - The materials revolution is pushing for advancements in material technology, with companies exploring the use of rare elements like scandium to enhance the performance of aluminum alloys [27]. - Innovations in titanium alloys are also being pursued to meet the high-temperature requirements of eVTOL engines, showcasing the industry's commitment to overcoming technical challenges [28]. Challenges and Barriers - The transition to aviation-grade materials is fraught with challenges, including lengthy certification processes and a shortage of skilled talent in the aerospace materials sector [30][31]. - Significant capital investments are required for transformation, with companies facing pressure to deliver returns within a short timeframe to satisfy investors [32]. Future Outlook - The industry is witnessing a shift towards integrated solutions, where companies are not only supplying materials but also providing design and operational support to clients [35][38]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies aiming to position themselves as global suppliers for the low-altitude economy, indicating a broader strategic vision for future growth [36][39].

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the metal mining industry driven by the emerging "low-altitude economy," which is expected to create substantial demand for aviation-grade aluminum and other materials [3][4][8]. Industry Trends - The low-altitude economy is projected to see aluminum consumption exceed 1.25 million tons by 2025, with a market size reaching 32 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 36% [3][6]. - Companies are experiencing a surge in orders for aviation-grade aluminum, with one manufacturer reporting a 23% increase in prices to 24,200 yuan per ton compared to the previous year [6][10]. Strategic Shifts - Metal mining companies are compelled to transition towards producing aviation materials, with some firms planning to double their production capacity for 7-series aluminum alloys to meet the growing demand from eVTOL and logistics drone manufacturers [9][10][14]. - A central enterprise has decided to invest 52 billion yuan to enhance its aviation aluminum production capacity to 40% of total output, indicating a strategic pivot away from traditional markets [14][15]. Competitive Landscape - Companies are adopting collaborative approaches, such as forming partnerships to create lightweight materials and participating in product design phases to secure long-term contracts with drone manufacturers [20][21]. - The competition is intensifying as firms engage in price negotiations and technical standard discussions, with some companies leveraging their material properties to differentiate themselves in the market [20][21]. Technological Innovations - The development of advanced aluminum alloys, such as the 7B50 alloy, is enabling significant weight reductions in drone manufacturing, which is critical for performance [18][24]. - Companies are investing in R&D to enhance material properties, such as strength and thermal resistance, to meet the stringent requirements of low-altitude vehicles [24][26]. Challenges and Barriers - The transition to aviation materials faces hurdles, including lengthy certification processes that can take up to 24 months and the high costs associated with them [28][30]. - There is a notable shortage of skilled talent in the aerospace materials sector, with a projected gap of 47,500 professionals by 2025, complicating the industry's ability to meet demand [29][30]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the ongoing material revolution will reshape the supply chain dynamics, with companies exploring new business models that extend beyond traditional material sales to include technical services and operational partnerships [34][35]. - The global market for low-altitude economy materials is expanding, with companies aiming to position themselves as key suppliers in this emerging sector [35].