Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The home appliance industry has shown a relative return of 12.0% over the past 12 months, with an absolute return of 21.1% [3] - The industry has a low valuation with a PE ratio of 15.33, ranking 28th among 31 industries, indicating potential for upward movement [5] - The "old-for-new" policy has been strengthened, leading to a 21.7% year-on-year increase in sales of six categories of home appliances and four categories of digital products during the Spring Festival holiday [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The home appliance industry experienced a decline of 0.42% this week, ranking 26th among its peers, while the CSI 300 index rose by 1.08% [4][9] - Over the past month, the industry gained 1.02%, ranking 20th, and has a year-to-date increase of 0.04%, ranking 27th [9] Valuation Analysis - The PE ratio of the home appliance industry is 15.33, compared to the CSI 300 index's 13.41, with a valuation percentile of 34.2% [5][26] - The industry is positioned at a historical low valuation, enhancing its investment attractiveness [5] Consumer Trends - The Spring Festival is a significant period for appliance upgrades, with a reported 510.6 million units sold during the holiday, reflecting strong consumer demand [6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading white goods companies with strong R&D capabilities, stable market positions, low valuations, and high dividend yields [7] - Identify niche sectors that can leverage new products and technologies to create demand, such as smart projectors and cleaning robots [7] - Monitor component manufacturers with strong R&D capabilities in response to the trend of replacing copper with aluminum due to rising copper prices [7] - Pay attention to "hidden champion" companies in the small appliance sector [7][56]

证券研究报告 2026 年 2 月 24 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 家电行业周报 2025 年地产配套家电市场下滑，2026 年或有低基数效 应 相关研究： | 1.《新国补落地首月成效显著》 | | --- | | 2026.2.9 | | 2.《板块下挫，咖啡机龙头递表港 | | 交所》 2026.2.1 | | 3. 《12月空调销售承压，行业洗 | | 牌加速》 2026.1.26 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 1.2% 0.4% -9.1% | | | 分析师：张弛 证书编号：S0500525110001 Tel：17621838100 Email：zc08241@xcsc.com 分析师：李育文 证书编号：S0500523060001 Tel：021-50295328 Email：liyw3@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 2 月 9 日-2 月 13 日，家电行业上涨 0.16%，其他黑色家电等子行业领涨 2 月 9 日-2 月 13 日，家电行业涨跌幅为 0.16%， ...

产业冷现实：高价格下的"需求疲软"与"累库压力" 与宏观层面的火热情绪形成鲜明对比的，是产业基本面面临的"冷现实"，尽管长期"供应刚性和需求增 长"的叙事逻辑难以被证伪，但短期却面临严峻考验。终端领域，新能源汽车市场因补贴政策的转换， 正处于过渡期，消费者观望心态较重，进入2月后，家电排产量也将出现环比下滑，据产业在线最新发 布的三大白电排产报告显示，2026年2月空冰洗排产合计总量共计2379万台，较去年同期生产实绩下降 22.1%，降低需求预期。高铝价对下游加工企业的抑制作用也十分明显，叠加需求淡季和部分地区环保 管控的影响，需求疲态进一步显露。据SMM数据，截至1月27日，长江A00铝贴水180元/吨，现货市场 持续处于高贴水状态，现货市场采购以刚性需求为主，尽管后续存在节前备货的需求，或使得整体下游 需求出现小幅回暖，但考虑到目前价格依然偏高，企业备货或以已有订单为依据，备货需求有限。 征稿(作者：国信期货 张嘉艺）--2026年伊始，铝价经历了一波凌厉涨势，以超过市场预期的速度刺穿 25000元/吨的高位，创下历史新高，尽管随后市场进入高位震荡与获利回吐阶段，但价格中枢已实现系 统性抬升。1月28日 ...

新华财经北京1月28日电大宗商品看涨情绪不断蔓延，28日，资金涌入沪铝期货，推动这一"生性稳 重"的有色品种盘中大涨超5%至25500元／吨附近，创出历史新高。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，近期有色金属板块整体处于高位震荡之中，而铝市场放量上涨的异军 突起，或是金融市场在博弈中的押注选择。另外，"以铝代铜"概念给予铝价需求长期增长的预期，且目 前国内铜铝比虽已回调至4.2附近，但仍处于历史较高区间，铜铝比异常对于铝价补涨的指引驱动力依 旧存在。 不过顾冯达也提示，整体来看，金融市场对于铝的多头配置属性大幅提升，切忌以下游实际需求衡量铝 价波动，同时建议保持多头进攻性，适当控制仓位，谨防春节敏感时点前的市场异动和冲高回落风险。 （文章来源：新华财经） 高盛周二将上半年铝价预期从每吨2575美元上调至3150美元，理由是全球库存低位、印尼新冶炼厂电力 供应担忧以及全球需求强劲增长。 同时，美元连续几日大幅走弱，推动金融属性较强的金属价格显著走强。 股市方面，1月28日盘中，中字头大宗资源品板块集体拉升，铝行业龙头企业中国铝业快速触及10%涨 停板，创历史新高，股期联动效应明显。 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The aluminum market is entering a structural bull market driven by macroeconomic and fundamental factors, with Citigroup raising the 0-3 month target price from $2,950/ton to $3,400/ton [1] - A slight structural shortfall of 61,000 tons is expected in 2026, expanding to 847,000 tons by 2027 [1][4] - Financial demand is currently driving prices, but fundamental support remains strong, with a cautious outlook on the speed of price increases due to lagging physical indicators in China [1][3] Group 2: Chinese Economic Factors - China's fixed asset investment growth is projected to turn positive at 2.0% in 2026, a significant improvement from -2.8% in 2025, with infrastructure investment expected to rebound from -1% to 6% [2] - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, is anticipated to boost aluminum extrusion demand, particularly for photovoltaic frames and structural profiles [2] - The copper market's positive outlook is expected to support aluminum prices through shared macro themes and increased financial inflows [2] Group 3: Price Predictions - Citigroup has adjusted the 0-3 month target price for aluminum to $3,400/ton, with a baseline average price of $3,100/ton for Q1 2026 [3] - The bullish scenario predicts a price of $3,500/ton, while the 6-12 month target is set at $3,300/ton, acknowledging potential short-term volatility [3] - The report emphasizes that speculative positions reflect structural bull market expectations, but evolving physical fundamentals should support this trend [3] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is expected to face slow supply constraints, project ramp-up risks, and reduced inventory driven by energy transition themes [4] - The current price increase is attributed to financial demand, but fundamental factors provide underlying support [4][5] Group 5: Industry Trends - The high premium of aluminum over copper is accelerating the replacement process in China's home appliance sector, particularly in air conditioning heat exchangers [6] - Different penetration scenarios suggest that new aluminum demand could reach approximately 44,000 tons in the first year and up to 228,000 tons by the third year under a conservative scenario [10] - The transition from copper to aluminum is becoming a significant incremental factor due to policy drivers and cost pressures, despite uncertainties in the adoption speed and technology paths [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is in a tight supply - demand balance, and aluminum prices still have upward potential under the support of global wide - policy and the tight supply - demand balance. The traditional consumption areas have a slowdown in growth, and exports are restricted by US tariff policies, but emerging areas such as artificial intelligence, energy storage, and robotics show clear incremental demand. The "aluminum substituting for copper" trend will continue due to the high copper - aluminum price ratio. [7] - The raw material bauxite supply is expected to remain loose, but policy changes in Guinea need attention. Alumina supply pressure exists with large - scale new production capacity, and policy adjustments in the domestic industry should be closely watched. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity expansion channels are basically closed, and overseas supply growth in 2026 is limited. [7] - The strategy is to hold medium - term long positions and buy on dips. The medium - term support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2603 is 23,000 - 23,300 yuan/ton. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Macro**: Geopolitical events such as the US military action in Venezuela, the US - EU tension, and the uncertainty in the Middle East have increased market concerns. The US employment growth in December 2025 was still sluggish with 50,000 new non - farm jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate. [7] - **Supply**: Bauxite supply is expected to be loose, but Guinea's policy changes are a risk. Alumina supply pressure persists with large new - capacity projects, and cost provides some price support. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is relatively stable, and the expansion channel is basically closed. Overseas supply growth in 2026 is limited. [7] - **Demand**: Traditional consumption areas have a slowdown, and exports are affected by US tariffs. However, emerging areas like AI, energy storage, and robotics will drive demand growth, and the "aluminum substituting for copper" trend will continue. [7] - **Inventory**: Domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, social inventory is increasing, and the spot discount is widening. [7] - **Strategy**: Hold medium - term long positions and buy on dips. The medium - term support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2603 is 23,000 - 23,300 yuan/ton. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents figures on domestic aluminum futures and spot prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premiums and discounts, LME aluminum prices, and the Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio, but no specific analysis is provided other than the data sources. [11][15] 3.3 Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a 22.50% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 187 million tons, a 29.61% year - on - year increase. In 2024, the cumulative import was 158.767 million tons, a 12.3% year - on - year increase. Guinea was the main source, accounting for 69.41%. Domestic bauxite production from January to October 2025 was 50.5155 million tons, a 5.19% year - on - year increase, but in October, it decreased by 6.96% year - on - year. Since July, domestic bauxite port inventory has declined. [25][31] - **Alumina**: In November 2025, the weighted average full cost of domestic alumina was 2,870 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease. The spot price dropped to 2,869 yuan/ton, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease. The industry was near the break - even point with an average loss of 1 yuan/ton. In November 2025, China's alumina production was 8.138 million tons, a 7.6% year - on - year increase; from January to November, the cumulative production was 84.657 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 970,300 tons, a 30.92% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export was 2.3433 million tons, a 46.7% year - on - year increase. The net export was 1.373 million tons, a 612.58% year - on - year increase. In 2025, it was a year of large - scale capacity investment, and there are still many projects to be put into production in 2026 and later. [39][41] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In November 2025, the electrolytic aluminum industry showed "increasing cost and growing profit". The weighted average full cost was 16,297 yuan/ton, a 1.9% month - on - month increase. The average profit was about 5,400 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum smelting enterprise's built - in capacity was 45.158 million tons, and the operating capacity was estimated to be 43.479 million tons, with an operating rate of 96.28%. In November 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.086 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 64.93 million tons. From January to November 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 40.172 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports were about 1.47 million tons, a 2.44% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative import was about 23.578 million tons, a 19.35% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the domestic primary aluminum export was about 5.83 million tons. As of January 8, 2026, the LME futures inventory was 501,800 tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 718,000 tons. [55][61][62][68][72][73] 3.4 Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Aluminum Alloys**: In November 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 1.739 million tons, a 17.0% year - on - year increase; from January to November, the cumulative production was 17.456 million tons, a 15.8% year - on - year increase. In 2024, the cumulative production was 16.141 million tons, a 9.6% year - on - year increase. [81] - **Aluminum Products and Bars**: In November 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.931 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative production was 61.511 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. In 2024, the national aluminum product production was 67.8311 million tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. [88] - **Aluminum Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's imports of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products were 240,000 tons, a 14.0% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative import was 3.6 million tons, a 4.4% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, the export was 570,000 tons, a 14.8% year - on - year decrease and a 13.3% month - on - month increase; from January to November, the cumulative export was 5.589 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease. [94] - **Downstream Demand**: In real estate, from January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a 15.9% year - on - year decrease. In 2026, building aluminum consumption is expected to decline by 5% to 9.088 million tons, and its proportion in the overall electrolytic aluminum downstream demand will drop to 21%. In the transportation industry, the demand for aluminum in the automotive sector is expected to increase, with new energy vehicle aluminum demand reaching 4.373 million tons in 2026. In the power industry, the growth of photovoltaic aluminum consumption will slow down, while energy - storage aluminum demand is expected to increase significantly, with a 60% year - on - year increase in global energy - storage battery shipments in 2026, driving an 815,000 - ton increase in aluminum demand. [105][109] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: Domestically, the decline in real - estate aluminum consumption in 2025 will be offset by the growth of new demand in photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles, and domestic electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a tight balance in 2026. Globally, the global primary aluminum production in 2026 is expected to be 75.4 million tons, a 2.2% year - on - year increase. The global aluminum demand is expected to increase by 2.7%, and the supply - demand will be in a tight balance. After 2027, as China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity reaches its peak, the supply increment will mainly come from overseas, and the demand from new energy and AI will continue to grow, leading to an expanding supply - demand gap. [112] - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content analysis is provided other than the data source. [116]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, reflecting the industry's transformation pains, with structural opportunities emerging in the context of increasing demand from new energy and high-end manufacturing sectors [1][10]. Price Fluctuations: Cyclical Adjustments Under Macro Disturbances - Short-term bearish pressures are evident, driven by a rebound in the US dollar, rising social inventory of aluminum nearing 550,000 tons (up 15% year-on-year), and weakened seasonal demand due to the upcoming Chinese New Year and pandemic disruptions, leading to a 10%-15% month-on-month decline in aluminum usage in construction and transportation sectors [1][2]. Industry Resilience Cannot Be Ignored - Cost support remains stable, with domestic alumina prices between 2,655-2,955 yuan/ton and pre-baked anode prices up 25% year-on-year, while the complete cost of electrolytic aluminum has surpassed 19,000 yuan/ton [2]. Structural Opportunities: New Energy Demand Reshaping Industry Logic - The economic viability of aluminum is increasing as the copper-aluminum price ratio rises to 1.8:1, with aluminum substitution in power cables and radiators reaching 30%, and the aluminum usage in a single GW photovoltaic module reaching 2,000 tons [3]. - Emerging sectors are witnessing explosive growth, such as humanoid robots requiring 80 kg of aluminum per unit, driven by Tesla's Optimus mass production plans, and the low-altitude economy pushing aluminum demand in aviation materials, with the market expected to exceed 50 billion yuan by 2026 [4]. Global Supply Chain Restructuring - Capacity transfer to Southeast Asia is anticipated, with an additional 1.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity expected in Vietnam and Indonesia within three years, while Chinese aluminum companies are seizing overseas markets through a "primary aluminum + deep processing" model [5]. - The share of recycled aluminum in domestic production has risen to 25%, with companies like Shunbo Alloy achieving profits of over 2,000 yuan per ton [5]. Market Outlook: A New Cycle of Recovery - Despite short-term pressures, long-term prospects remain positive, with strong support for the Shanghai aluminum main contract at 23,000 yuan/ton, and pre-holiday inventory replenishment by downstream processing enterprises potentially accelerating the inventory turning point [6]. - Three major trends are reshaping the industry landscape: the high-end upgrade driven by automotive lightweighting, smart production with AI quality inspection systems improving yield rates to 99.8% and reducing energy consumption by 12%, and global expansion with Yun Aluminum's alumina project in Indonesia increasing overseas resource share to 40% [6]. Investment Strategy: Seizing the "Dual-Driving" Main Line - Leading companies with high resource self-sufficiency include Shenhuo Co., with profits exceeding 4,000 yuan per ton and a strategic layout in Yunnan hydropower and Xinjiang coal power, and Zijin Mining, with African bauxite production expected to reach 5 million tons by 2026 [7]. - New energy material leaders such as Dingsheng New Materials, holding a 42% market share in battery aluminum foil, and Hesheng Co., ranking among the top three in CTP battery tray shipments [8]. - Recycled aluminum circular economy targets like Shunbo Alloy, with a capacity utilization rate exceeding 120%, and Huajin New Materials, achieving breakthroughs in recycled aluminum technology with costs 18% lower than primary aluminum [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the impact of political risks from the situation in Venezuela, leading to a decline in aluminum prices due to weak seasonal demand and inventory pressure [1][2] - The latest closing price for London aluminum is reported at $31,084 per ton, down by $50, reflecting a 1.60% decrease, with trading volume at 35,127 lots, a reduction of 10,581 lots [1] - Domestic aluminum production capacity is limited due to regulatory constraints, resulting in minimal increases in output, while overseas production also faces disruptions [2] Group 2 - The recent rise in the US dollar index to a four-week high has put pressure on aluminum prices, as a stronger dollar makes aluminum more expensive in dollar terms [2] - Despite a seasonal decline in demand, new growth points in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, energy storage, and robotics are gradually emerging [2] - Current market conditions indicate a potential further decline in spot aluminum prices due to weak demand and inventory accumulation, with traders showing a strong desire to liquidate holdings [2]

Core Insights - The domestic alumina market is expected to experience significant fluctuations in 2025, with prices declining from historical highs to near cost levels due to increased supply and external factors [1][7] - The aluminum price is projected to rise overall in 2025, influenced by various positive factors including U.S. economic data and international cooperation agreements [2] - The aluminum alloy ADC12 prices are anticipated to show a mixed trend, with an overall increase compared to 2024, driven by raw material price changes and demand fluctuations [3] Domestic Alumina Market - In 2025, domestic alumina production reached 81.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.44%, with a notable recovery in production capacity in the second half of the year [7] - The domestic alumina market is expected to maintain a growth trend in 2026, but the incremental space is relatively limited due to regulatory and environmental factors [4] - The cumulative import of bauxite in China from January to November 2025 was 186.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.44%, with Guinea being the largest supplier [4][5] Global Bauxite Supply - Guinea's bauxite production increased by 24.36% in the first three quarters of 2025, contributing significantly to the global market despite local policy changes [5] - The global bauxite supply is expected to see an increase of 40 to 50 million tons in 2026, primarily driven by production recovery in Guinea [6] Aluminum Price Trends - The aluminum price is expected to rise steadily in 2025, supported by a combination of favorable economic conditions and reduced global aluminum inventory [2] - The domestic aluminum alloy ADC12 prices are projected to fluctuate, with a general upward trend influenced by raw material costs and market demand [3] Emerging Consumption Areas - The demand for aluminum in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence and energy storage is expected to grow, providing new opportunities for the industry [11] - The automotive sector in China showed strong growth in 2025, with production and sales of new energy vehicles leading the increase [11] Cost and Profitability - The production costs for alumina are expected to decline due to lower prices for raw materials, with the theoretical loss margin narrowing significantly by the end of 2025 [8] - The profitability of aluminum companies is projected to improve due to the dual benefits of falling alumina prices and rising aluminum prices, with profit margins reaching approximately 5,800 yuan per ton by the end of 2025 [10]

Summary of the Conference Call on Nonferrous Metals Industry Focus - The report focuses on the nonferrous metals industry, specifically aluminum and copper markets. Key Points and Arguments Aluminum Price Performance - Since the beginning of the year, LME copper 3-month contracts have increased by 27.2%, while LME aluminum 3-month contracts have only risen by 11.2%, leading to a copper-aluminum price ratio of 4.4 [3][4] - The disparity in price performance is attributed to two main factors: copper's stronger financial attributes under macroeconomic conditions and global inventory imbalances caused by U.S. demand [3] - It is anticipated that aluminum may perform tighter than copper in 2026, with liquidity benefits potentially already priced in [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to remain low in 2026, with the pace of new projects in Indonesia likely to be slower than market expectations [4][5] - The supply constraint reflects the scarcity of an efficient industrial system rather than just insufficient capital expenditure at the mining level [6] - Demand for aluminum is expected to be more resilient due to its cost-effectiveness compared to copper, with a notable shift in the air conditioning industry towards aluminum usage [4][8] Trade and Regulatory Impacts - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will come into effect on January 1, 2026, impacting the cost structure for aluminum production in Europe [9][10] - The CBAM tax will apply to direct carbon emissions from aluminum production, which could increase costs for new smelting plants and affect overall demand [11] Future Outlook - The supply constraints in aluminum are expected to persist, while demand is likely to benefit from its cost advantages, leading to potential price increases [12] - The ongoing transition from copper to aluminum in various applications, particularly in the air conditioning sector, is expected to further support aluminum consumption [8][12] Statistical Insights - As of December 22, aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 578,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory fell to 120,000 tons, indicating a trend of inventory depletion [8] - The average direct emissions for global aluminum production are approximately 1.57 tons CO2e per ton of aluminum, with the EU's baseline emissions for 2026 set at 1.55 tons CO2e per ton [10] Additional Important Information - The report highlights the historical correlation between copper and aluminum prices, suggesting that price movements in one metal can significantly influence the other [3][18] - The anticipated increase in aluminum prices is expected to help restore the copper-aluminum price ratio to its historical average [12]