——铝市震荡折射行业转型阵痛 2026年1月8日，铝价遭遇"黑色星期四"：伦铝跌至3070美元/吨附近，沪铝主力合约重挫705元/吨，单日 跌幅达2.89%，最新收盘价报23725元/吨；长江现货市场，A00铝锭报价每吨24000元，单日大跌140元/ 吨，现货贴水幅度收窄至150元/吨。尽管短期回调压力显著，但行业数据显示，铝在新能源、高端制造 等领域的渗透率正加速提升，结构性机会悄然浮现。 一、价格波动：宏观扰动下的周期性调整 1. 短期利空集中释放 美元反弹压制：美国非农数据前避险情绪升温，美元指数升至四周高位，伦铝单日跌幅达0.44%； 库存累积预警：国内铝锭社会库存逼近55万吨，较去年同期增长15%，现货贴水反映下游接货意愿疲 软； 季节性需求转弱：春节前消费淡季叠加疫情扰动，建筑、交通等领域用铝量环比下滑10%-15%。 2. 产业韧性不容忽视 成本支撑较为稳固：国内氧化铝价格维持在2655-2955元/吨区间，预焙阳极价格同比上涨25%，电解铝 完全成本突破1.9万元/吨； 产能天花板效应：国内有效产能触及4500万吨政策红线，海外电解铝新增产能受能源价格制约释放缓 慢。 二、结构性机会：新能源 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 有色金属 2025 年 12 月 24 日 中孚实业 (600595) ——成本改善释放业绩弹性，高分红凸显长期价值 报告原因：首次覆盖 增持（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 8.07 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 8.34/2.71 | | 市净率 | 1.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 32,344 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,919.98/13,368.99 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | | 4.16 | | 资产负债率% | | 31.03 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | | 4,008/4,008 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -200% 0% 200% 400% 12-23 01 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in high-end aluminum alloy production, benefiting from growth in sectors such as ultra-high voltage, 3C electronics, and automotive lightweighting [5][7]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 72.84 billion RMB in 2023 to 82.22 billion RMB in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.08% [6][57]. - The company aims to expand its international presence through a project in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge globally [56][57]. Summary by Sections 1. High-End Aluminum Alloy Leader - The company has established a diverse product portfolio, including aluminum profiles for 3C electronics, automotive lightweighting, and aluminum rods and cables, which are widely used across various industries [7][20]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholder holding 35.78% of the shares, ensuring strong backing from its parent company [18][20]. - Revenue has steadily increased from 594.3 billion RMB in 2021 to an expected 809.4 billion RMB in 2024, driven by robust downstream demand [22][57]. 2. Growth in High-End Aluminum Alloy Business - The aluminum rod and cable segment is expected to benefit from ongoing investments in ultra-high voltage projects, with a total investment of 380 billion RMB planned during the 14th Five-Year Plan [31][32]. - The 3C aluminum profile segment is experiencing accelerated demand due to the adoption of aluminum frames in the iPhone 17 series, which is expected to boost sales [40][41]. - The automotive lightweighting segment is also growing, with the company focusing on components such as crash beams and battery packs, entering partnerships with leading automotive brands [46][43]. 3. Raw Material Layout - The company is actively expanding its recycled aluminum operations, achieving a total recycling volume of 637,500 tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.37% [55][54]. - The Saudi project aims to establish a comprehensive aluminum industry chain, enhancing the company's international market reach and competitiveness [56][57]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 7.5 billion RMB in 2025, 11.4 billion RMB in 2026, and 13.0 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 14, and 12 [6][57]. - The report compares the company with peers like Lichung Group and Yongmaotai, which have higher average P/E ratios, indicating potential for growth in the company's valuation [59].

Core Viewpoint - The fire incident at Novelis' plant in Oswego, New York, is expected to halt production until early next year, significantly impacting the supply of aluminum for the U.S. automotive industry, which relies on this facility for approximately 40% of its aluminum sheet supply [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Aluminum in Manufacturing - Aluminum is referred to as the "universal metal" due to its lightweight, high strength, corrosion resistance, ease of processing, conductivity, and recyclability, making it essential across various industries including automotive, aerospace, electronics, construction, packaging, and renewable energy [3][5]. - The demand for aluminum is increasing, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, where reducing vehicle weight is crucial for enhancing energy efficiency and range [6][11]. Group 2: U.S. Aluminum Industry Challenges - The U.S. aluminum industry has been in decline, with domestic production dropping to only 670,000 tons in 2024, representing less than 1% of global output, a stark contrast to its peak of 4.65 million tons in 1980 [14][16]. - The decline is attributed to a lack of bauxite reserves and high electricity costs, which are critical for aluminum production. The U.S. has only 20 million tons of economically recoverable bauxite, a negligible amount compared to global reserves [20][28]. Group 3: Recycling and Strategic Responses - The U.S. is increasingly relying on recycled aluminum, with 2023 production reaching approximately 3.31 million tons, surpassing primary aluminum production and becoming a cornerstone of the U.S. aluminum supply [32][33]. - The U.S. government has recognized aluminum as a strategic material, leading to increased tariffs on imports to protect domestic production, although this has not effectively addressed the underlying issues of electricity supply and production costs [38][50].

Core Insights - Brunei's Guangxi Huahang Aluminum Industry (Brunei) has received the first import license for recycled aluminum, with the Brunei National Investment Fund committing to invest 30% of the total project cost, which amounts to 30% equity in the company [1] - The project aims to establish a stable import channel for recycled aluminum through the Brunei-Guangxi Economic Corridor, previously reliant on Malaysia and Indonesia [1] - The project will be developed in three phases, with an initial investment of 10 million Brunei dollars (approximately 56 million RMB) to achieve an annual production of 200,000 tons of recycled aluminum [1] Company Developments - The Huahang Aluminum project in Brunei plans to expand its production capacity through three phases, with total investments of 10 million, 20 million, and 200 million Brunei dollars, respectively, leading to a total annual production of 80 tons of aluminum products [1] - The company has achieved a 20% increase in the strength of recycled aluminum alloys and a 35% reduction in weight, with 30% of its annual capacity of 100,000 tons being exported [2] - The unique technology developed by the company allows for 95% recycling of aluminum, significantly reducing carbon emissions compared to electrolytic aluminum production [2] Industry Trends - The push for recycled non-ferrous metals is gaining momentum in China, with ports accelerating the expansion of overseas sourcing channels [3] - The establishment of innovative customs clearance models for recycled metals, such as the one implemented by Ningbo Customs for recycled copper, is being suggested for Guangxi to enhance its position in the global aluminum processing market [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the company, indicating a potential price increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [23]. Core Views - The company has shown significant profit growth due to a decrease in raw material prices and an increase in aluminum prices, with a net profit of 707 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.55% [6][9]. - The improvement in performance is attributed to enhanced profitability in aluminum deep processing and increased electrolytic aluminum capacity, alongside reduced costs from alumina and electricity [9]. - The company completed a 24% equity acquisition in Zhongfu Aluminum, raising its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 750,000 tons per year, and is advancing its green aluminum development strategy [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.82%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 59.55% [6]. - The gross profit margin improved to 11.66%, up 1.40 percentage points from the previous year, and the net profit margin rose to 5.93%, an increase of 1.59 percentage points [9]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average alumina price in the first half of 2025 was 3,450.64 yuan per ton, down 1.17% year-on-year, while the electrolytic aluminum price was 20,315.42 yuan per ton, up 2.66% [9]. - The price of thermal coal decreased by 26.81% year-on-year, contributing to cost improvements [9]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on green low-carbon transformation, with a new distributed photovoltaic capacity of approximately 21.5 MW added in the first half of 2025, bringing the total to about 77.55 MW [9]. - The proportion of recycled aluminum in deep processing products reached 61%, further reducing the carbon footprint [9]. Shareholder Returns - The company initiated an employee stock ownership plan, with employees purchasing approximately 330 million shares, representing 8.21% of total shares, at an average price of 3.21 yuan per share [9]. - A cash dividend plan was established, aiming to distribute at least 60% of the distributable profits in cash annually from 2025 to 2027, reflecting confidence in future profitability [9]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 24.108 billion yuan, 24.469 billion yuan, and 24.861 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 2.126 billion yuan, 2.232 billion yuan, and 2.390 billion yuan [10].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance and strategic initiatives of Henan Mingtai Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. for the first half of 2025, emphasizing its focus on high-end manufacturing, low-carbon circular economy, and the expansion of recycled aluminum applications. Company Overview and Key Financial Indicators - The company reported a revenue of approximately 16.99 billion RMB, an increase of 11% compared to the same period last year [2] - The total profit decreased by 10.9% to approximately 1.07 billion RMB, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 12.11% to about 940 million RMB [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 80.56% to approximately 1.1 billion RMB [2] - Total assets grew by 20.38% to approximately 28.08 billion RMB, and net assets increased by 5.36% to about 18.23 billion RMB [2] Industry and Main Business Situation - The aluminum plate, strip, and foil industry maintained resilience supported by demand from the new energy sector, while recycled aluminum applications expanded rapidly due to policy and technological advantages [3] - The company has developed into a leading player in both diversified aluminum processing and recycled aluminum applications, with products used in various sectors including new energy, transportation, electronics, and military [3][4] - The company operates four hot-rolling production lines and has advanced recycling technology, with an annual processing capacity of over 1 million tons of waste aluminum [3] Operational Analysis - The company employs a "sales-driven production" model, ensuring stable procurement of raw materials through long-term agreements with suppliers [4] - The company focuses on high-end intelligent manufacturing and low-carbon circular economy, aiming to enhance product structure and management efficiency [5] - The company has made significant advancements in technology, including the development of high-performance aluminum foil for solid-state batteries and lightweight aluminum structures for robotics and aerospace applications [5][6] Financial Performance and Cost Management - The company reported an increase in operating costs by 18.96% to approximately 15.96 billion RMB, while sales expenses decreased by 13.99% [11] - The company has implemented measures to reduce costs and improve efficiency, including the use of recycled aluminum to lower raw material costs [7] - The company achieved a sales volume of 780,000 tons in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 17 billion RMB [7] Competitive Advantages and Future Outlook - The company has established a strong competitive position through continuous technological innovation and a focus on green production practices [8] - The company has received multiple certifications for its green manufacturing processes and aims to further enhance its recycling capabilities in response to new regulations [8][13] - The company is actively pursuing international procurement of recycled aluminum to expand its supply network and reduce carbon emissions [13] Governance and Investor Relations - The company has undergone a board restructuring to enhance decision-making efficiency and governance practices [14] - The company emphasizes transparent communication with investors and has implemented a systematic investor relations management framework [15]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Zhongfu Industrial with a target price of 6.3 CNY [3][12]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from increased electrolytic aluminum capacity and a decline in raw material costs, leading to improved profitability and asset quality [9][10]. - The company is set to initiate its first dividend in years, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [10][46]. - The transition towards green electricity consumption in the electrolytic aluminum sector presents a significant competitive advantage for the company [10][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 22,761 million CNY in 2024 to 27,764 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.7% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rebound from 704 million CNY in 2024 to 2,688 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.18 CNY in 2024 to 0.67 CNY in 2027 [4]. Company Overview - Zhongfu Industrial is a veteran in the electrolytic aluminum industry, with a diversified business model encompassing coal, electricity, and aluminum processing [8][15]. - The company has undergone significant restructuring since 2021, improving its financial health and operational efficiency [8][17]. - As of 2024, the company has a production capacity of 690,000 tons of deep-processed aluminum and 750,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, positioning it among the top players in China's aluminum sector [15][27]. Growth Drivers - The completion of 100% control over electrolytic aluminum assets is expected to enhance production capacity by 19.3% [10][58]. - The company is actively working on cost optimization through self-supplied electricity and high self-sufficiency in carbon materials [10][61]. - The upcoming regulatory changes regarding green electricity consumption in the electrolytic aluminum industry are anticipated to favor companies like Zhongfu that are investing in green energy solutions [10][11]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute at least 60% of its distributable profits as cash dividends from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [10][47]. - The expected dividend yield for 2025-2027 is projected to be between 2.5% and 7.7%, depending on the approach to covering past losses [10][50].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance and operational strategies of Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. for the first half of 2025, showcasing significant growth in revenue and net profit, alongside a focus on sustainable practices in the recycling aluminum industry [5][10]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the reporting period reached CNY 7,126,279,774.01, representing an increase of 11.75% compared to CNY 6,376,853,691.63 in the same period last year [6][18]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 151,055,661.76, a substantial increase of 114.05% from CNY 70,570,447.33 year-on-year [6][18]. - Basic earnings per share rose to CNY 0.27, up 58.82% from CNY 0.17 [6][18]. Business Overview - The company operates primarily in the recycling aluminum alloy ingot production and sales, contributing to resource conservation and environmental sustainability [8][9]. - The main business segments include casting aluminum alloy, deformed aluminum alloy, and hazardous waste disposal [8][9]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has established four production bases in Chongqing, Guangdong, Hubei, and Anhui, with a total capacity of 1.05 million tons, targeting major consumption markets in Southwest, South, East, and Central China [7][13]. - The Anhui Shunbo Phase I project has released 400,000 tons of casting aluminum alloy capacity, with ongoing capacity ramp-up [7][9]. Market Position and Strategy - As a leading player in the recycling aluminum industry, the company aims to enhance its market share through strategic regional expansions and customer relationship management [9][16]. - The company’s products are widely used in various industries, including automotive, machinery, and electronics, with a growing focus on lightweight materials for new energy vehicles [15][16]. Technological Advancements - The company has developed a comprehensive core technology system covering the entire industry chain, emphasizing cost reduction and quality improvement [15][16]. - Continuous innovation in production processes and technology is a priority, with a focus on high-value, intelligent, and low-carbon solutions [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd., plans to issue A-shares to specific investors to meet funding needs for business development and enhance capital strength and profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Purpose of the Issuance - The issuance is in response to national policies promoting the recycling of resources and the development of a circular economy, particularly in the aluminum industry [1][2]. - The company aims to raise up to 600 million yuan to fill a funding gap for projects including a 630,000-ton aluminum alloy ingot project and a 500,000-ton aluminum plate and strip project [2][3]. Group 2: Necessity of the Securities Issuance - The issuance will involve domestic RMB ordinary shares (A-shares) with a face value of 1.00 yuan each [3]. - The previous fundraising was reduced from 1.5 billion yuan to 600 million yuan due to market conditions, necessitating this new issuance to complete the required investments [2][3]. Group 3: Selection of Issuance Objects - The issuance will target up to 35 specific investors, including qualified institutional investors and other legal entities [4][5]. - All investors will subscribe to the shares in cash, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [5]. Group 4: Pricing Principles and Methods - The pricing will be based on the average trading price of the company's shares over the 20 trading days prior to the issuance date, set at no less than 80% of that average [6][7]. - The final pricing will be determined by the board of directors in consultation with the lead underwriter after regulatory approval [6][7]. Group 5: Feasibility of the Issuance Method - The issuance complies with relevant laws, including the Company Law and Securities Law, ensuring that all shares have equal rights [8][9]. - The issuance process has been approved by the company's board and supervisory board, and will be subject to shareholder approval and regulatory review [12][13]. Group 6: Fairness and Reasonableness of the Issuance Plan - The issuance plan has been reviewed and approved by independent directors and the board, ensuring it aligns with shareholder interests [12][13]. - The company commits to transparency by disclosing the issuance details to shareholders, safeguarding their rights [12][13]. Group 7: Impact on Shareholder Rights and Measures to Mitigate Dilution - The issuance may dilute existing shareholders' immediate returns, but the company plans to enhance capital strength and market competitiveness to mitigate this effect [13][14]. - Measures include expanding market reach and increasing product development to improve profitability and shareholder returns [13][14]. Group 8: Commitment to Regulatory Compliance and Governance - The company has established a robust governance structure and internal controls to ensure compliance with laws and protect shareholder interests [15][16]. - Commitments from major stakeholders to uphold shareholder rights and ensure the effectiveness of measures to mitigate dilution risks have been made [16]. Conclusion - The planned issuance of A-shares is deemed necessary and feasible, aligning with the company's strategic goals and benefiting shareholders [17].