2月11日，A股市值1752亿元的输配电龙头思源电气正式向港交所递交H股招股书，由中信证券独家保荐。 这家2025年营收突破212亿元、净利超31亿元（同比+54%）的民企巨头，携手中宁德时代签订50GWh储能盟约，依托覆盖100+国家的全球网络冲 刺"A+H"双资本平台，既是资本结构的优化升级，更是从"国内设备商"向"全球能源解决方案提供商"的战略跃升，为电力装备行业全球化树立全新样本。 攻坚全球化扩张瓶颈 此次IPO募资绝非单纯补充现金流，而是精准直击全球化战略的核心短板。 招股书明确，资金将投向高压开关、变压器及储能产能扩张，750kV GIS等核心技术研发，以及全球服务网络搭建三大关键领域。 数据显示，思源电气2025年海外收入占比已达34%，同比激增89%，但与国际巨头相比仍存差距。 通过港股融资平台，其不仅能降低美元债务成本，更能深度对接全球资本，支撑北美、欧洲高端市场的本地化快速交付。 行业格局层面，身为国内民企第三、国际第八的输配电设备商（市占率3.5%），思源正通过产能升级突破增长天花板。 目前其750kV GIS市场份额已从2024年的1.3%飙升至20%，成为国内唯一掌握该技术的民企，此 ...

Sieyuan Electric (002028.SZ) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Sieyuan Electric - **Stock Code**: 002028.SZ - **Market Cap**: Rmb159,176 million (US$22,841 million) [6][9] Key Industry Insights - **Transformer Exports**: China's transformer exports rose 36% year-on-year to US$64.6 billion in 2025, driven by strong global demand [2][11] - **US Supply Gap**: The US faces a supply gap of about 30% that may persist until 2030, presenting opportunities for Sieyuan [2][11] - **State Grid Capex**: The State Grid's capex is projected to reach Rmb4 trillion in the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), which is about 40% higher than the previous plan [14][19] Financial Performance - **2025 Results**: Sieyuan's net profit for 2025 is expected to increase by 54.4% year-on-year to Rmb3,163 million, exceeding consensus estimates by 8% [21][25] - **Revenue Growth**: Revenue is projected to grow by 37.2% year-on-year to Rmb21.2 billion in 2025 [21][24] - **Earnings Forecast**: Net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 8-26% due to higher revenues and margins [25][26] Product and Market Strategy - **Product Mix Upgrade**: Sieyuan has started production of 750kV GIS, winning orders for over 30 units in 2025, with an average selling price (ASP) of Rmb20 million [3][12] - **Export Growth**: Revenue from exports is expected to continue growing, with a 90% year-on-year increase to Rmb5.9 billion in 2025, accounting for 28% of total revenue [2][11] Management and Corporate Strategy - **Management Track Record**: Established in 1993, Sieyuan has a strong focus on power grid equipment and is expected to benefit from the State Grid's capex plans [4][11] - **H-Share Listing**: The forthcoming Hong Kong listing is anticipated to enhance Sieyuan's global market recognition and facilitate export business development [22][24] Competitive Positioning - **Peer Comparison**: Sieyuan's 2025E revenue is approximately 95% of HD Hyundai Electric's, but significantly lower than Hitachi and Siemens Energy [11][12] - **Margin Analysis**: Sieyuan's operating profit and net profit margins are expected to be lower than those of HD Hyundai Electric due to differences in ASP and market exposure [12][13] Financial Ratios and Projections - **Earnings Projections**: - 2025E Net Profit: Rmb3,163 million - 2026E Net Profit: Rmb4,560 million - 2027E Net Profit: Rmb6,056 million [5][24] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Target Price: Rmb260 per share, up 53% from previous estimates [6][25] - Expected Total Return: 27.5% [6] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: The company is rated as a "Buy" with expectations of significant growth driven by strong demand, management effectiveness, and favorable market conditions [1][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][11]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was below expectations, with revenue of 730 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1% [4]. - The decline in profit is attributed to delays in product delivery cycles, while increased R&D expenses have impacted profitability [4]. - The investment climate for the power grid sector is improving, with a 12.5% year-on-year increase in completed investments in power grid projects from January to July 2025 [5]. - The company continues to secure orders and expand its product offerings, including successful bids for its 550kV GIS in national grid procurement [5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 7.22 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 4.5 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 3.7 billion yuan [3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's gross margin was 37.2%, and net margin was 14.4%, with a rise in sales expense ratio to 6.4% and an increase in R&D expense ratio to 8.4% [4]. - The company forecasts revenues of 2.09 billion yuan, 2.50 billion yuan, and 3.00 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 360 million yuan, 460 million yuan, and 560 million yuan for the same years [6][9]. Market Outlook - The report highlights the ongoing development of new products, including 750kV GIS and energy-efficient transformers, which are expected to contribute positively to future revenue growth [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Sieyuan Electric, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [4][8]. Core Insights - Sieyuan Electric reported a net profit increase of 45.7% year-on-year to Rmb1,293 million in 1H25, surpassing market expectations [1][11]. - Revenue grew by 37.8% year-on-year to Rmb8,497 million, significantly exceeding the company's target of over 20% growth for 2025 [1][11]. - The net profit surge was attributed to both revenue growth and net margin expansion, which increased by 0.8 percentage points to 15.2% [1][11]. - The company aims for new orders to grow over 25% year-on-year in 2025, with a focus on international markets and non-grid customers [2][8]. - Sieyuan's R&D expenses were 7% of revenue in 2024, supporting new business developments such as energy storage systems and advanced switchgear [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025E, net profit is forecasted to reach Rmb2,660 million, reflecting a growth of 29.8% year-on-year [3][12]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) improved to 9.89%, an increase of 1.72 percentage points year-on-year [1][11]. Market Position - Sieyuan's overseas orders accounted for approximately 30% of total orders, with significant growth from regions like the Middle East and South America [2][8]. - The company has established a strong presence in the UHV gas insulated switchgear market, enhancing its market recognition [6][8]. Valuation - The target price for Sieyuan Electric is set at Rmb87.00 per share, based on a discounted cash flow model, indicating a potential upside of 24.3% from the current price [4][12]. - The expected total return, including dividend yield, is projected at 25.2% [4].

Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.29 billion yuan, up 45.7% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 5.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50.2%, with a net profit of 850 million yuan, an increase of 61.5% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations [1] Operational Analysis - The main network construction exceeded expectations, transformer exports maintained high prosperity, and non-network new energy installations saw significant growth [2] Domestic Market Insights - From January to May 2025, investment in power grid projects reached 204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20% [3] - The third batch of bids for State Grid's transmission and transformation equipment amounted to 21.19 billion yuan, up 38% year-on-year, setting a new record for single-batch bid amounts [3] - Cumulatively, the first three batches totaled 54.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, driven by unexpected growth in the Northwest power grid construction [3] International Market Insights - From January to May 2025, China's power transformer exports reached 2 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 45%, maintaining rapid growth [4] - The company achieved breakthroughs in markets such as the UK, Italy, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, and passed various national certifications, indicating potential benefits from overseas power equipment demand [4] Non-Network Business Growth - From January to May, new installations of wind and solar power reached 46 GW and 198 GW, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 134% and 150% [4] - The company is actively developing non-network businesses in power generation, rail transit, petrochemicals, and metallurgy [4] Profitability Improvement - In the first half of 2025, the company's operating profit margin was 18.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 15.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The improvement in profitability is primarily attributed to high-margin ultra-high voltage equipment and an increase in the proportion of overseas revenue [5] - The company aims to achieve new orders of 26.8 billion yuan (excluding tax) in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and expects to exceed its operational targets for 2025 [5] Forecast and Valuation - The company's development strategy is clear, and its business planning is well-defined, with expectations for continued revenue growth across various products due to accelerated domestic grid investment and sustained overseas demand [6] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.75 billion yuan, 3.48 billion yuan, and 4.34 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 34%, 27%, and 25%, respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 20, 16, and 13 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [6]