2026年1月9日早盘，能源板块走高，截至10:13，中证新能源指数强势上涨1.30%，成分股明阳智能上涨 10.03%，金风科技上涨9.99%，厦门钨业上涨9.86%，科士达，迈为股份等个股跟涨。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证新能源指数前十大权重股分别为宁德时代、阳光电源、特变电 工、隆基绿能、华友钴业、亿纬锂能（维权）、中国核电、赣锋锂业、天赐材料、三峡能源，前十大权 重股合计占比43.23%。 新能源ETF(159875)紧密跟踪中证新能源指数，是一键布局新能源龙头的便利工具。 国金证券指出，智能化方面，AI Agent上车重塑座舱体验，成为差异化竞争手段；智驾领域新一代架构 及大算力芯片加速落地，城市NOA功能向低价格带下沉，头部车企技术迭代提速。行业结构上，增换 购需求主导消费升级，高端车市场表现优于经济型车型，自主品牌份额提升空间显著。同时，燃油车在 智能化升级与HEV技术突破下迎来发展机遇期。尽管行业竞争加剧导致盈利承压，但出口放量、规模 效应及本地化产能投产有望带动车企海外盈利能力持续改善。 此外，华泰证券指出，全国统一电力市场建设加速推进，预计"十五五"期间电网投资有望达到4万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive outlook on the commodity market for 2026, analyzing 31 institutions' strategies across various sectors including non-ferrous metals, ferrous metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, covering 47 trading varieties [1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - Institutions show a strong bullish sentiment towards copper, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from sectors like renewable energy and AI, with expectations of a global supply gap [3][4]. - For aluminum, the consensus is cautious bullish, with domestic production hitting a ceiling while overseas supply is increasing, leading to a tight balance or slight surplus [81][82]. - Zinc is expected to experience a weak oscillation due to relative oversupply, but macroeconomic conditions may limit significant declines [118][119]. Precious Metals - There is a strong consensus for a bullish outlook on gold and silver, supported by long-term structural demand driven by sovereign credit risk hedging and central bank purchases, despite short-term volatility influenced by monetary policy [5][6][10]. - Price predictions for gold range from 920 to 1300 CNY per gram, while silver is expected to be between 12000 to 20000 CNY per kilogram [14][18]. Energy and Chemical Products - The outlook for nickel is bearish, with ongoing supply surplus due to the expansion of low-cost Indonesian production, which is expected to further depress prices [160][161]. - The article highlights the importance of monitoring the progress of Indonesian policies as a key risk factor for the nickel market [166]. Strategy Recommendations - The article suggests maintaining a long position in copper and precious metals, while being cautious with nickel and zinc due to their respective supply-demand dynamics [70][80][164]. - Institutions recommend focusing on macroeconomic indicators and policy changes to identify trading opportunities, particularly in the context of potential price corrections [8][28][29].

国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布关于促进电网高质量发展的指导意见，其中提出，加大电网投资力 度。落实国家重大战略部署，适度超前、不过度超前开展电网投资建设，加大存量电网改造升级力度， 保障新型电力系统建设。鼓励符合条件的民间资本参与电网投资建设。优化电网企业投资经营考核管理 机制。 诚通证券认为，全球电网投资持续增长，以应对全球风光发电占比持续提高对电网的冲击，预计全球电 网投资将保持长期景气。发电侧方面，受益于风电、光伏行业的快速增长，全球电源端投资近几年增速 显著快于电网端投资，一方面提升了并网升压设备需求，另一方面电网需要加大投入以应对风光发电占 比提升带来的冲击。电网侧方面，发达经济体电网设备老旧，超过20年使用年限设备占比高，更新换代 需求迫切。国内电网设备公司将受益于电网投资增速中枢上移，同时海外出口业务有望保持稳定增长。 东莞证券认为，当前我国智能电网、西电东送、城乡电网改造等重要项目都需要大量的电网设备，并提 出了新的要求，高效、节能、环保的变压器将成为未来市场的主流，电源电网的转型升级为我国的电网 设备制造业创造了巨大的发展机遇。 ...

Group 1: Copper Industry Insights - The copper ETF (512400) has increased by 0.89%, with a trading volume of 937 million yuan and a turnover rate of 4.51% [1] - Key copper smelting indicators are signaling tightness, with the 2026 copper concentrate long-term processing fee benchmark set at $0/ton and $0/pound, a significant decrease of $21.25/ton and 2.125 cents/pound year-on-year [1] - The decline in processing fees indicates fierce competition among smelting companies for raw materials, suggesting that profits in the industry chain are shifting towards upstream mining [1] Group 2: Titanium Alloy Demand - Titanium alloys are on the verge of a demand explosion, with a projected growth rate exceeding 10% over the next three years due to their high strength, low density, and corrosion resistance [2] - The maturity of 3D printing technology is breaking the application bottleneck of titanium alloy powders, which now account for approximately 20% of mainstream 3D printing materials [2] - The downstream titanium materials and powder segments are expected to become the fastest-growing areas within the industry chain as they transition from "0-1" validation to "1-10" scale expansion [2] Group 3: ETF Overview - The copper ETF (512400) closely tracks the CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index, which includes 50 listed companies from the nonferrous metals and non-metallic materials sectors [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, China Aluminum, Ganfeng Lithium, Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Tianqi Lithium, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [2]

投资建议：展望"十五五"，国内电网投资有望维持高景气度。2025 年 7 月雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工， 西南水电外送需求持续增加；财政部部长蓝佛安表示，2026 年将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，通过扩大 财政支出、优化支出结构等措施，着力扩大内需。预计特高压设备、电网智能化升级改造等板块有望从中 受益。建议关注平高电气、国电南瑞。 风险提示：电网投资力度不及预期；市场竞争加剧的风险；原材料价格大幅上涨的风险。 评论： 12 月 29 日，国家电网公司党组召开会议，传达学习习近平总书记近期重要文章、重要贺信精神。公司党 组书记、董事长张智刚强调，要充分发挥电网基础支撑和投资拉动作用，以更大的力度、更实的举措助力 扩内需、稳增长；加大电网投资力度，坚持电力发展适度超前，紧密对接国家重大战略，衔接"两新""两 重"建设，更加有效带动社会投资和产业链供应链发展。 全国财政工作会议 12 月 27 日至 28 日在北京召开，财政部部长蓝佛安表示，明年将继续实施更加积极的 财政政策。"更加积极"既体现在资金规模上，更体现在提高资金使用效益上。具体包括：扩大财政支出 盘子，确保必要支出力度；优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥 ...

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [3] Core View - The current market has weak supply and demand with no prominent contradictions. It is expected that steel mill production will continue to operate at a low level, and the increase in demand during the off - season is limited. The screw and coil futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with the resistance level for rebar at 3200 and the support level at 3030. Short - term operations are recommended [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - Rebar and hot - rolled coils closed higher during the night session on Wednesday [3] Important Information - Beijing has further optimized and adjusted the housing purchase restriction policy, including relaxing the conditions for non - Beijing household registration families to purchase houses, allowing multi - child families to buy an additional house within the Fifth Ring Road, and adjusting mortgage and provident fund loan policies [3] - According to CISA data, in mid - December, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 1.845 million tons, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period. The steel inventory was 16.01 million tons, an 8.6% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 2.6% increase from the same period last month [3] - The US government announced on the 23rd that it will impose tariffs on Chinese chips in 2027, ending a trade investigation initiated by the previous Biden administration. However, it will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months [3] - This year, the State Grid will complete fixed - asset investment of over 650 billion yuan, a record high [3] Market Logic - The current market has weak supply and demand with no prominent contradictions. Steel mill production is expected to remain at a low level, and demand growth in the off - season is limited [3] Trading Strategy - Short - term operations are recommended [3]

Group 1 - The total installed power generation capacity in China is expected to exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 14% [1] - The total electricity consumption in China has surpassed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, marking a significant milestone in the country's economic and energy development [1] - The energy self-sufficiency rate in China has increased from around 80% to over 84% since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, establishing the largest renewable energy system globally [1] Group 2 - The rapid development of artificial intelligence has led to a surge in electricity demand, with internet data service electricity consumption increasing by 43% year-on-year from January to October [1] - Citibank indicates that global electricity demand is being driven up by AI data centers, electrification, and the integration of renewable energy, alongside a reduction in financing costs due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Domestic policies are reinforcing long-term opportunities in ultra-high voltage, flexible DC transmission, and smart grid sectors, with structural demand continuing to emerge [2] Group 3 - The construction of a unified national electricity market is accelerating, with expected grid investments during the 15th Five-Year Plan projected to exceed 4 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the 2.8 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - The A-share electric grid equipment index has risen by 31.28% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by over 17 percentage points [2] - Ten electric grid equipment stocks have seen cumulative gains exceeding 100% this year, with Huatong Cable leading at nearly 200% [2] Group 4 - According to Wind's consensus forecast, 12 electric grid equipment stocks are expected to have net profit growth rates exceeding 20% in both 2026 and 2027 [3] - Far East Holdings is projected to have the highest average net profit growth rate of 48.89% over the next two years, with significant contributions from its AI-related products [3] - Three of the high-growth potential electric grid stocks have rolling P/E ratios below 30, including Samsung Medical, which has a rolling P/E of 17.11 [3]

"十五五"时期，电网投资有望迎来新一轮增长。 全社会用电量首超10万亿千瓦时 据人民日报，记者从2026年全国能源工作会议上获悉：今年全国发电总装机预计超过38亿千瓦，同比增长14%，全社会用电量首超10万亿千瓦时。"1万亿千 瓦时"便相当于日本全年的用电量总和，7月和8月全社会用电量连续超过1万亿千瓦时，我国有力有效应对迎峰度夏电力负荷20次，超去年峰值考验。 据证券时报·数据宝统计，截至12月15日收盘，A股电网设备指数年内涨幅达到34.77%，超同期上证指数19个百分点以上。电网设备股合计A股市值达到1.62 万亿元，其中3股A股市值超1000亿元，分别为国电南瑞、思源电气、特变电工。 从个股来看，10只电网设备股年内累计涨幅翻倍，包括华通线缆、智洋创新、灿能电力、洛凯股份、红相股份等。 中国电力企业联合会统计与数智部副主任蒋德斌说，全社会用电量首超10万亿千瓦时，这不仅标志着我国用电规模稳居世界首位，更成为中国经济与能源发 展进程中的重要里程碑。 国家能源局有关负责人表示，"十四五"以来，我国能源自给率从80%左右增至84%以上，建成全球最大的可再生能源体系，能源体量规模稳居世界第一。 "十五五"时期 ...

"十五五"时期，电网投资有望迎来新一轮增长。 全社会用电量首超10万亿千瓦时 据人民日报，记者从2026年全国能源工作会议上获悉：今年全国发电总装机预计超过38亿千瓦，同比增长14%，全社会用电量首超10万亿千瓦时。"1万亿 千瓦时"便相当于日本全年的用电量总和，7月和8月全社会用电量连续超过1万亿千瓦时，我国有力有效应对迎峰度夏电力负荷20次，超去年峰值考验。 商业连锁龙头逆市涨停 今日（12月16日）早盘，A股市场再现调整，上证指数下跌1.22%，创业板指下跌2.35%，科创50指数下跌2.02%。盘面上超4400股飘绿，智能驾驶与日常 消费相关的题材逆市走强。 截至上午收盘，商业连锁板块中，龙头股永辉超市录得涨停板，涨停板封单173.77万手。百大集团、欧亚集团、中央商场、广百股份、红旗连锁、利群股 份等也涨停。其中百大集团(600865)目前已连续收获4个涨停板，是商业连锁板块中连板次数最多的个股。 百大集团12月15日晚间发布风险提示公告称，经公司自查，公司目前尚未发现可能或已经对公司股票交易价格产生影响的媒体报道或市场传闻和涉及热点 概念的事项。 百大集团还发布了一则股东提前终止减持计划的公告。公 ...

保险行业这两天有两个新闻，值得大家关注一下。 而横向比较来看， 平安的股东们损失的还有机会成本，下图 ，是2020年12月15日至今的5年时间里，其他四家上市险企，以及六大行、中证红利 全收益、10年国债期货的区间涨幅，可以看到，不管是和同业相比，还是从底层资产的角度看，平安的股价都是大幅跑输的（区间平安的涨幅为 负）。 股价的波动，是很多因素叠加的结果，但有一点，恐怕大家都会认同——作为曾经被戏称为全国实际最大的地产投资商，这一轮地产的下行周 期，给平安带来了伤筋动骨的影响，以至于其需要用更久的时间，去抹平伤疤，为曾经的激进投资买单。 但另一方面来看，平安这种大家伙，还可以用时间换空间，去消化问题，而很多中小保险，就没这么厚的家底了。 比如，国华人寿，其上周公告宣布，对20年发行的30亿元次级债，不行使赎回选择权。 我简单解释一下这个事。 一方面，今天保险股集体大涨的过程中， 中国平安暴涨5个点，股价终于回到了5年前 ，也就是2020年底前后的水平，下图，其谷底一度跌至30 块出头——2025年的平安股民们就坐在那里，深情的目光望过去，都是自己上一轮牛市站岗的影子。 在《 必看，解读两个重磅新闻 》中，咱们 ...