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中金:日历效应视角下,年末应配置哪个风格?
中金点睛· 2025-11-18 23:59
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the calendar effect observed in the A-share market, where certain market styles exhibit better performance in specific months, suggesting the presence of seasonal factors influencing these patterns [2][4]. Summary by Sections Calendar Effect of Styles - The small-cap style shows significant volatility in the first half of the year, with better performance in the second half. Specifically, April has weak performance for small-cap stocks, while March and May yield higher average returns [4][13]. - The growth style demonstrates a "high early, low late" pattern, with notable excess returns in January and June-July, achieving a win rate of 90.9% [4][13]. - The quality style exhibits strong performance in both January (excess return of 1.4%, win rate of 81.8%) and December (excess return of 0.5%, win rate of 80%) [4][14]. - The dividend style performs well in April and August, with a win rate of 83.3%, but shows lower performance in June and October [4][15]. Mechanisms Behind Calendar Effects - The performance of growth and small-cap styles is significantly influenced by the rhythm of financial report disclosures, with concentrated disclosures in January, April, and July favoring growth stocks [5][20]. - High dividend announcement days and ex-dividend days can impact the performance of dividend stocks, with positive excess returns following high dividend announcements and negative returns post ex-dividend days [5][24]. - Institutional investors exhibit seasonal changes in risk preferences, with a tendency to favor growth stocks mid-year and quality stocks towards year-end, impacting the performance of respective styles [5][35]. Implications for Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on growth opportunities during the earnings announcement periods in January and April while avoiding small-cap stocks during these times [23][35]. - Attention should be given to the concentration of dividend announcements in March and April, which can enhance the performance of dividend styles, while caution is warranted during the ex-dividend periods [30][34].
年末或可关注质量风格的配置机会,自由现金流ETF(159201)近20个交易日合计“吸金”超15亿元
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-14 01:59
Group 1 - The report by CICC summarizes the calendar effect exhibited by mainstream styles in the A-share market, highlighting that the growth style portfolio shows significant excess returns in January and June/July, with a win rate of 90.9% [1] - The quality style demonstrates a "strong at both ends" pattern, with January (excess return of 1.4%, win rate of 81.8%) and December (excess return of 0.5%, win rate of 80%) being the advantageous months for this style [1] - The 800 quality index also performs relatively well in January and December, indicating strong seasonal trends for quality stocks [1] Group 2 - On November 14, the Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) experienced a slight decline of approximately 0.5%, while leading stocks such as Huaren Health, Hailu Heavy Industry, and CIMC Vehicles showed gains [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF has seen net inflows in 19 out of the last 20 trading days, totaling over 1.5 billion yuan, indicating significant capital attraction [1] - The latest scale of the Free Cash Flow ETF reached 6.464 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception and outperforming similar products [1] Group 3 - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) and its linked funds (A: 023917; C: 023918) closely track the National Index of Free Cash Flow, selecting stocks with positive and high free cash flow after liquidity, industry, and ROE stability screening [1] - The index is characterized by high quality and strong risk resistance, making it suitable for core portfolio allocation and long-term investment needs [1] - The fund management fee is set at an annual rate of 0.15%, and the custody fee at 0.05%, both representing the lowest rates in the market, maximizing benefits for investors [1]