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中金:日历效应视角下,年末应配置哪个风格?
中金点睛· 2025-11-18 23:59
中金研究 我们观察到一些市场主流的风格在特定月份收益表现胜率较高,优于该风格在其他月份的收益表现。 如:2023年以来,连续3年的4月份中证红利指数 均明显跑赢中证全指。由此,我们思考,市场主流风格在不同月份的收益表现是否存在日历性规律?如果存在的话,其背后是否有季节性因素主导这 一规律,使之持续生效?为此,本篇报告梳理和总结了A股市场中主流风格所表现出来的日历效应,并尝试对其成因和市场的行为规律进行剖析,以 期合理利用各个风格的周期性规律。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 日历效应:年末或可关注质量风格的配置机会 小盘风格呈现上半年波动较大、下半年总体向好的特征。 1、4月小盘风格组合表现较弱,中证2000指数超额收益分别为-2.3%、-2.2%。而3、5月则是小 盘风格平均收益较高的月份。下半年8月以后,小盘风格组合收益表现相对较高,风格组合胜率维持较高水平。 成长风格表现呈"前高后低"特征。 成长风格组合在1月和6、7月有较显著超额收益,胜率达到90.9%。800成长指数在1月也延续组合优势;偏股基金指数 4-6月收益连正(均为0.8%),总体比800成长表现更佳。下半年成长风格总体回落 ...
年末或可关注质量风格的配置机会,自由现金流ETF(159201)近20个交易日合计“吸金”超15亿元
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-14 01:59
Group 1 - The report by CICC summarizes the calendar effect exhibited by mainstream styles in the A-share market, highlighting that the growth style portfolio shows significant excess returns in January and June/July, with a win rate of 90.9% [1] - The quality style demonstrates a "strong at both ends" pattern, with January (excess return of 1.4%, win rate of 81.8%) and December (excess return of 0.5%, win rate of 80%) being the advantageous months for this style [1] - The 800 quality index also performs relatively well in January and December, indicating strong seasonal trends for quality stocks [1] Group 2 - On November 14, the Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) experienced a slight decline of approximately 0.5%, while leading stocks such as Huaren Health, Hailu Heavy Industry, and CIMC Vehicles showed gains [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF has seen net inflows in 19 out of the last 20 trading days, totaling over 1.5 billion yuan, indicating significant capital attraction [1] - The latest scale of the Free Cash Flow ETF reached 6.464 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception and outperforming similar products [1] Group 3 - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) and its linked funds (A: 023917; C: 023918) closely track the National Index of Free Cash Flow, selecting stocks with positive and high free cash flow after liquidity, industry, and ROE stability screening [1] - The index is characterized by high quality and strong risk resistance, making it suitable for core portfolio allocation and long-term investment needs [1] - The fund management fee is set at an annual rate of 0.15%, and the custody fee at 0.05%, both representing the lowest rates in the market, maximizing benefits for investors [1]