摘要 创新药产业链 - CXO 近期观点分享 20260115 当前创新药行业的周期性变化及其投资机会有哪些？ 创新药行业目前正处于一个新的上行周期。根据对过去 20 年投资周期的复盘， 创新药大致以 3-4 年为一个周期。本轮周期的低点出现在 2022 年，2023 年 投资增速下滑收窄，2024 和 2025 年逐步回升，并在 2025 年进一步提速。 这表明创新药行业正在持续复苏。此外，从 BD 交易金额来看，2025 年的总金 额远超 2024 年，这也反映了市场热度的回暖。 在此背景下，有两个主要维度 可以形成投资机会。首先是成长维度，一些重磅药品的持续上市和商业化放量 将带动相关 CDMO 外包订单增长。例如，多肽类药品（如礼来的替尔泊肽）和 GLP-1 类减重药品市场规模持续上涨，将带动多肽相关产能储备充足公司的业 绩增长，如药明康德等。 其次是从整体周期拐点角度看，可以关注一些盈利能 力边际改善的公司。例如，以昭衍新药为代表的临床前 CRO 公司，其实验用猴 价格自 2025 年以来逐步反弹；以泰格医药为代表的临床 CRO 公司，其订单结 构改善将推动今年（2026 年）的盈利能力提升；以及博 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese innovative drug industry is experiencing a systematic valuation increase, primarily benefiting from the realization of business development (BD) opportunities abroad, with multinational corporations (MNCs) beginning to pay for early pipeline products, reshaping the valuation system and reversing the previous reliance on domestic market payments [1][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - The industry has reached an operational turning point, with large biotech companies like BeiGene demonstrating profitability trends, entering a profit window, validating the market acceptance of the innovative drug commercialization model [1][5][6]. - MNCs are facing a patent cliff and urgently need to introduce innovative drugs through BD to fill sales gaps, while Chinese innovative drug research has made significant progress over the past decade, providing high-quality alternative products for BD collaborations [1][7]. - BD activities in the Chinese innovative drug sector are concentrated in the areas of antibody-drug conjugates (ADC) and second-generation immuno-oncology (IO), with companies like Kelun-Biotech and Innovent Biologics leading globally by enhancing product efficacy and reducing toxicity through innovative designs [1][9][10]. - The Harmony Two study data from CanSino Biologics has sparked MNC interest in the second-generation IO track, accelerating related layouts and facilitating several large BD transactions, such as BMS's collaboration with a biotech firm totaling over $9 billion [1][12]. Market Trends - The current innovative drug market is performing strongly, with minor adjustments observed primarily in second- and third-tier stocks, while core assets remain largely unaffected, indicating a good entry opportunity [2]. - The valuation levels of innovative drugs are not yet at a bubble stage, and the current market cycle is believed to be far from over, with a shift in valuation dynamics due to MNCs beginning to pay for early-stage products [3][5]. Future Prospects - The Chinese innovative drug industry is optimistic about future development, with more biotech companies entering profitability windows, further driving industry growth [6]. - The second-generation IO track is still in the expansion phase, with significant potential and investment prospects, particularly for companies like 3SBio, Innovent Biologics, and Abogen Biosciences [4][13]. Noteworthy Developments - The increase in BD activities is attributed to both supply and demand factors, with MNCs needing to fill sales gaps due to expiring patents on major drugs, while Chinese companies have made substantial advancements in drug development [7][8]. - The ADC and second-generation IO fields are highlighted as key areas of focus, with Chinese companies showing strong competitive advantages and technological capabilities [9][10]. Investment Logic and Company Classification - Investment logic varies among innovative drug companies based on their R&D direction, technology platform, and market demand, necessitating a comprehensive evaluation of specific fields and company strengths [16]. - Companies can be classified into four categories: early-stage biotech, pre-balance biotech, platform biopharma, and generic innovators, each with distinct characteristics and development stages [17][18]. Conclusion - The innovative drug sector in China is poised for growth, driven by advancements in BD activities, strong company performances, and a favorable market environment, making it a critical area for investment and research [1][6][19].