可能有朋友会问，那中长线该咋应对？帮主的观点很明确：这种回调不仅不是坏事，反而可能是给中长线投资者送机会。就像有策略师说的，现在市场已经 有些超卖了，情绪指标都到了极端恐惧的水平，这其实是洗出不坚定筹码的过程——那些只想赚快钱的人跑了，真正优质的标的反而会露出真面目。咱们做 中长线，不用天天盯着大盘的涨跌数字，要抓核心逻辑：美联储降息的大方向没改，只是节奏可能慢一点；AI赛道的长期价值还在，只是前期涨太急需要 消化估值；而那些业绩扎实、估值合理的标的，回调之后反而更有布局价值。 朋友们，帮主郑重又来跟大家唠实打实的财经了！周五凌晨打开行情软件，美股那波上涨确实挺吸睛，道指一下窜了快500点，纳指、标普也跟着往上走， 但咱把时间拉长到一周再看，三大股指全是绿的，纳指都连跌三周了，是不是有朋友心里开始犯嘀咕：这市场到底咋回事，该慌吗？ 其实这周美股的戏可比电视剧还精彩，咱们先回头唠唠周四那波过山车。早盘道指直接冲了700多点，大家一看英伟达财报亮眼，都以为AI股要接着领跑， 结果美国9月非农数据一公布，市场瞬间就变了脸——担心美联储年底前降息的事儿要泡汤，资金立马开始撤退。英伟达更惨，从早盘涨5%硬生生砸到跌 3 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index (沪指) rose by 72 points in October, an increase of 1.85%, while the Shenzhen Index and the ChiNext Index both recorded declines, with the STAR 50 experiencing the largest drop of 5.33%, reversing more than half of its September gains [1] - Micro-cap stocks saw the best performance in October, rising by 7.46%, while the North Exchange 50 also increased by 3.54% [1] - A notable market phenomenon occurred where the index declined while individual stocks rose, with 3,760 stocks gaining, indicating a shift from large-cap to small-cap stocks [1] Economic Indicators - The fourth quarter typically sees a style switch in the market, as investors tend to adopt a defensive posture to protect gains as the year-end approaches [2] - Recent statements from three Federal Reserve officials indicated that there is no need for interest rate cuts in December, leading to a stronger US dollar and fluctuations in the US stock market [2] Federal Reserve and Economic Concerns - The shift in the Federal Reserve's stance is attributed to the ongoing US government shutdown, which has lasted for a month with no signs of resolution, potentially impacting economic conditions and raising concerns about a recession [4] - The market is particularly sensitive to the changing expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with a shift from extreme optimism to extreme pessimism [4] Company-Specific Insights - Microsoft's recent financial report revealed that OpenAI incurred a significant loss of $11.5 billion in the third quarter, far exceeding market expectations, raising questions about the sustainability of the AI "myth" in the stock market [4] - The performance of AI-related stocks in the US market could have repercussions for the A-share market in China if trust in these companies diminishes [4] Technical Analysis - The recent decline in the Shanghai Composite Index has confirmed a daily top structure, indicating a need for defensive strategies as the market may face adjustments [6] - The critical support level for the index is at 3,890, which serves as an important dividing line for bullish and bearish sentiment [6] - The STAR market has emerged as the weakest index, warranting attention for potential bottoming patterns [6]