While most investors are chasing artificial intelligence (AI) chipmakers, the real backbone of the AI revolution may be chip designer Arm Holdings (ARM). Its chip designs power everything from smartphones to hyperscale data centers, positioning it as a key player of the next decade of AI. After delivering its strongest quarter ever, Arm is set to report its third quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Feb. 4 after the market closes. Is this a good opportunity to grab this AI chip stock now? More News from Barc ...

Core Viewpoint - Arm Holdings reported strong Q2 FY2026 results with record revenue of $1.14 billion, a 34% year-over-year increase, exceeding guidance by $75 million [1][10] - The growth was driven by increased demand for AI computing across various sectors, including data centers, smartphones, automotive, and IoT [6][10] Revenue Breakdown - Royalty revenue reached a record $620 million, up 21% year-over-year, benefiting from growth in all major markets [1][10] - Licensing revenue surged 56% to $515 million, driven by customer demand for next-generation AI products [1][10][11] - Annual Contract Value (ACV) increased by 28%, significantly above the company's long-term expectations of mid-single-digit growth [1][11] AI Computing Demand - The acceleration in AI computing demand spans from milliwatt-level edge devices to megawatt-level hyperscale data centers [2][6] - Arm's Neoverse platform has seen significant adoption, with over 1 billion CPUs deployed, addressing power constraints in data centers [2][6] - Strategic partnerships, such as with Meta, aim to enhance AI efficiency across unified computing platforms [2][6] Market Trends - The demand for computing subsystems (CSS) continues to exceed expectations, with 19 CSS licensing agreements signed [2][7] - The introduction of Lumix CSS mobile computing platform enhances AI capabilities in mobile devices [8] - The automotive sector is witnessing advancements with Arm's technology, contributing to the development of smart vehicles [8] Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q3 revenue midpoint of $1.225 billion, representing approximately 25% year-over-year growth [13] - Royalty revenue is expected to grow slightly above 20%, while licensing revenue is projected to increase by 25% to 30% [13] - Continued investment in R&D is planned to capture the vast opportunities presented by AI [13][47]

Core Insights - Arm's presence in the server market is rapidly increasing, with its CPU market share reaching 25% in Q2 2025, up from 15% a year prior [1] - The growth is primarily driven by the widespread adoption of Nvidia's Grace-Blackwell architecture-based computing platforms [1][2] Group 1: Grace-Blackwell Platform Impact - Each NVL72 system, consuming 120 kW, is equipped with 72 Blackwell GPUs and 36 Grace CPUs, optimized for data transfer using Nvidia's custom NVLink-C2C interface [2] - The initial systems were shipped in small quantities at the end of last year, with upgraded versions based on Blackwell Ultra architecture starting delivery in Q2 this year [2] - Arm's server market share previously relied heavily on custom cloud chips like AWS Graviton, but now revenue from Grace is comparable to cloud GPUs [2] Group 2: Cloud Vendors and Arm's Strategy - AWS has invested in custom Arm chips since 2018, while Microsoft and Google have recently launched their own Arm CPUs, Cobalt and Axion, respectively [3] - Despite rapid progress, Arm's 25% market share is still significantly below the 50% target set for the end of 2025 [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Arm's market share is expected to continue growing, with Nvidia developing a new Arm CPU codenamed Vera and Qualcomm and Fujitsu advancing their next-generation server chips [4] - Arm's ambitions extend beyond the server market, with predictions that by 2029, half of all Windows PCs sold globally will be powered by Arm chips [4] Group 4: Market Growth Driven by AI - The server and storage component market is projected to grow by 44% year-on-year by Q2 2025, driven by AI investment expansion [5] - Sales of SmartNICs and Data Processing Units (DPUs) have nearly doubled, benefiting from the trend of AI clusters migrating to Ethernet architectures [5] - Custom AI ASIC shipments have reached parity with GPUs, although GPUs still dominate revenue in the accelerator market [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenue of $1,050,000,000 for Q1, marking the highest revenue quarter and the second highest revenue quarter overall [6][12] - Royalty revenue reached $585,000,000, up 25% year on year, with strong momentum across all end markets [6][12] - Licensing revenue was $468,000,000, showing a slight decrease of 1% year on year, as expected [12][13] - Non-GAAP operating profit was $412,000,000, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.35, above the midpoint of guidance [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARM Neoverse data center chips saw a 40% year-on-year increase in enterprises running AI workloads, now exceeding 70,000 [6] - The compute subsystems (CSS) are driving double the royalty of RMV9, with three new CSS licenses signed this quarter [9][13] - The average contract value (ACV) increased by 28% year on year, significantly above previous expectations [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The smartphone segment grew faster than the overall market, although growth was slower than anticipated [12][28] - ARM's market share in AI workloads is expected to reach nearly 50% this year, up from approximately 18% last year [7][34] - ARM's China business accounted for 21% of revenue, showing growth from previous quarters [67] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding into full end solutions and exploring opportunities in ASICs and chiplets [20][24] - Continued investment in R&D is prioritized to support customer needs and capitalize on AI demand [10][18] - The company aims to maintain its leadership in AI by leveraging its extensive developer ecosystem of over 22 million developers [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in healthy growth driven by visibility into customer design pipelines and rising demand for custom silicon [18][61] - The ongoing increase in CapEx from hyperscalers is viewed as a strong tailwind for ARM's royalty growth [61] - Management acknowledged potential indirect impacts from macroeconomic conditions but expects limited direct effects on royalty and licensing revenues [16] Other Important Information - The company is seeing significant adoption of its V9 architecture, with royalties stepping up from 18% to 25% [71] - The CSS platforms are expected to deliver the highest royalty rates seen to date, with new deals indicating strong future growth [13][51] Q&A Session Summary Question: ARM's strategy in ASICs and full end solutions - Management indicated that further integration is a direction of travel, with insights into chiplet development and the potential for full solutions [20][24] Question: Royalty growth expectations - Management noted that royalty growth was slightly below expectations due to slower growth in the smartphone sector, but overall forecasts remain stable [28][30] Question: Market share context for Neoverse chips - Management highlighted significant share gains in AI workloads, moving from sub-20% to nearly 50% market share [34] Question: FX impact on EPS - Management expects approximately $0.01 impact on EPS for the next three quarters, with a hedging strategy in place [40][41] Question: ACV drivers - The increase in ACV was driven by new CSS deals and expanded licensing with SoftBank, contributing to a 28% year-on-year growth [49] Question: ARM China business impact - Management stated that ARM's China business continues to grow consistently with the global market, unaffected by recent export controls [66][67] Question: Adoption of ARM V9 - Management confirmed that V9 adoption continues to grow, with royalty rates increasing faster than adoption rates [71] Question: CSS applications in automotive - Management indicated that CSS is well-suited for automotive applications, particularly in ADAS, with strong customer interest [78]

Core Viewpoint - Arm Holdings experienced a significant stock price decline of 44% since reaching a high on January 22, 2025, despite delivering stronger-than-expected results, primarily due to high valuation and economic uncertainties [1][2]. Company Overview - Arm does not manufacture semiconductor chips but develops technology and maintains intellectual property (IP) that is licensed to various companies for chip design and manufacturing [3]. - Major customers include Apple, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Samsung, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, with Arm holding over 99% market share in mobile application processors [4]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Arm aims to capture a 50% share of the data center CPU market in 2025, a significant increase from 15% in 2024, driven by adoption from major tech companies [5]. - The lower power consumption of Arm's designs has attracted chipmakers like Nvidia and Amazon, who are utilizing Arm's architecture for their custom AI processors [6]. Strategic Initiatives - Arm is involved in the Stargate Project, which anticipates $500 billion investment in AI infrastructure over the next four years, potentially boosting its cloud revenue [8]. - The cloud CPU market was valued at $21 billion at the end of fiscal 2024, with expectations for growth in the current fiscal year [9]. Financial Performance and Valuation - Analysts expect Arm's earnings growth to accelerate following a 26% increase in fiscal 2025, with a significant jump in data center CPU revenue anticipated due to increased licensing deals [9]. - The stock's pullback has made it relatively cheaper, trading at 132 times trailing earnings, down from 205 times at the end of 2024, with a forward earnings multiple of 50 [10]. - The median price target for Arm stock is $177.50, suggesting potential gains of 77% over the next 12 months [11].