February 6, 2026 05:00 AM GMT Arm Holdings plc | North America Pullback creates a buying opportunity Near-term shortages stress sentiment on royalties growth while a longer term transition to complete chip design offers strong intrigue. These opposing forces add to volatility and will be the tale of price progression into FY27. We keep our $135 price target and Overweight rating despite shortage fears. Key Takeaways Concerns outweigh longer-term transition. Management struck a positive tone on the Q3 result ...

Core Insights - Arm reported Q3 FY26 revenue of $1.24 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, slightly above market expectations of $1.23 billion [4] - Despite a high gross margin of 97.4%, GAAP operating profit was low at $185 million, below the expected $246 million, primarily due to high R&D expenses [3][4] - Management indicated that the growth in data center revenue is expected to surpass mobile revenue in 2-3 years, driven by custom chips for large cloud service providers [10][12] Financial Performance - Revenue: $1.24 billion, up 26% YoY, exceeding the guidance of $1.23 billion [4] - GAAP Gross Margin: 97.4%, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points YoY, but below the expected 97.7% [4] - GAAP Operating Profit: $185 million, a 6% increase YoY, but below the expected $246 million; GAAP operating margin at 15%, down 3 percentage points YoY [4] - Non-GAAP Net Profit: $457 million, up 10% YoY, exceeding expectations of $438 million; Non-GAAP net margin at 37%, down 5 percentage points YoY [4] Business Segments - License & Other Revenue: $505 million, a 25% YoY increase; 50 Arm Total Access contracts signed, with a 7% annual fee increase [7] - Royalty Revenue: $737 million, a 26% YoY increase, driven by growth in data centers and mobile; data center royalty revenue has doubled YoY [10] Market Outlook - Management expects Q4 revenue of $1.47 billion, an 18% YoY increase, with Non-GAAP net profit projected at $620 million, a 6% increase [12] - Anticipated growth in Royalty revenue in Q4 is expected to be in the low double digits, while License revenue is expected to grow in the high double digits [12] - Management's guidance for FY27 indicates a reasonable expectation of 20% revenue growth [12] Strategic Insights - The demand for server CPUs is being driven by Agentic AI, which aligns with Arm's strengths in energy efficiency [12] - The first generation of CSS royalty fees is significantly higher than previous generations, indicating a potential for increased revenue from new mobile devices [12] - Management expressed concerns about the impact of a potential 20% decrease in mobile shipments on royalty revenue, estimating a 4-6% impact on mobile royalty income [12]

Group 1: AI Investment and Valuation - Microsoft and NVIDIA plan to invest up to $15 billion in AI startup Anthropic, raising its valuation to $350 billion from $183 billion in September [2][3] - Anthropic will purchase $30 billion worth of computing power from Microsoft's Azure cloud platform, committing to a capacity of up to 1 billion watts [2][3] - This investment reflects the growing interconnection between cloud computing, chip suppliers, and leading AI developers, raising concerns about a potential valuation bubble [3] Group 2: GlobalFoundries Acquisition - GlobalFoundries announced the acquisition of Singapore-based silicon photonics chip manufacturer AMF, aiming to become the largest silicon photonics chip manufacturer globally [5][6] - The acquisition will enhance GlobalFoundries' technology portfolio and production capabilities, integrating AMF's assets and expertise to meet the growing demand in AI data centers and telecommunications [5][6] - Silicon photonics technology is expected to replace traditional optical modules, with market share projected to increase from 30% in 2025 to 60% by 2030 [6] Group 3: Arm and NVIDIA Collaboration - Arm announced the integration of its Neoverse platform with NVIDIA's NVLink Fusion technology, facilitating easier pairing of Arm-based CPUs with NVIDIA's GPUs for large-scale data center operators [7][8] - This collaboration aims to set new standards for AI infrastructure, with Arm's Neoverse platform expected to capture 50% of the global market share in top-tier data centers by 2025 [7][8] - The partnership reflects NVIDIA's strategy to open its NVLink platform for integration with various custom chips, reinforcing its central position in the AI industry [8]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about an AI valuation bubble persist in the market, yet major chip companies continue to make significant investments in the sector [1] Group 1: Investment in AI Startup Anthropic - Microsoft and NVIDIA plan to invest up to $15 billion in AI startup Anthropic, raising its valuation to $350 billion from $183 billion in September [2][4] - Anthropic will purchase $30 billion worth of computing power from Microsoft's Azure cloud platform, committing to a capacity of up to 1 billion watts [2][3] - This investment reflects the growing interdependence between cloud computing, chip suppliers, and leading AI developers, with concerns about potential cyclical AI transaction bubbles [3] Group 2: GlobalFoundries Acquires AMF - GlobalFoundries announced the acquisition of Singapore-based silicon photonics chip manufacturer AMF, aiming to become the largest silicon photonics chip manufacturer globally [5] - The acquisition will enhance GlobalFoundries' technology portfolio and production capabilities in Singapore, complementing its existing capabilities in the U.S. [5][6] - Silicon photonics technology is crucial for AI infrastructure, enabling high-speed, energy-efficient data transmission [6] Group 3: Arm and NVIDIA Collaboration - Arm announced the integration of its Neoverse platform with NVIDIA's NVLink Fusion technology, facilitating easier pairing of Arm-based CPUs with NVIDIA GPUs for large-scale data center operators [8][9] - The Neoverse platform is designed for high-efficiency and high-performance scalability, with expectations to capture 50% of the global market share in top-tier data centers by 2025 [8] - This collaboration signifies NVIDIA's strategy to open its NVLink platform for integration with various custom chips, reinforcing its central role in the AI industry [9]

Core Insights - ARM's efficiency in computing platforms is approximately 50% higher than competing solutions, leading to significant adoption by major companies like NVIDIA, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Tesla [1][2] - The unprecedented demand for computing power is primarily based on ARM technology, contributing to over 100% year-on-year growth in the Neoverse business segment [1][2] - The Chinese market has shown strong performance with historical high demand, driven mainly by license revenue, including a large licensing deal [1][7] Financial Performance - In Q2, SoftBank-related revenue increased from $126 million to $178 million, a rise of $52 million, which serves as a future reference benchmark [5] - The revenue from SoftBank includes IP licensing and design services, with design services having a lower profit margin [5] Strategic Initiatives - ARM's acquisition of DreamBig Semiconductor is aimed at enhancing its Ethernet and DMA controller capabilities, which will expand its product offerings [3] - Collaboration with SoftBank on the Stargate project is expected to provide significant business opportunities in data center construction [3] Market Trends - The infrastructure business is growing at twice the average rate of other categories, with expectations of a 15% to 20% revenue share in ARM's royalty income [6] - The shift in data center computing from training to inference is anticipated, with strong demand for ARM's technologies in edge computing [7] Future Outlook - ARM maintains confidence in its future prospects based on current capital expenditures and the ongoing strong AI cycle [1][7] - The company plans to provide clearer guidance for Q4 based on its licensing reserves and the timing of large licensing deals [1][7]

Core Viewpoint - Arm Holdings Plc is optimistic about its revenue forecast, driven by increasing interest in chip designs for AI data centers, with projected Q3 revenue around $1.23 billion and earnings per share of $0.41, surpassing analyst expectations [5][6]. Group 1: AI and Chip Development - Arm's strategy involves close collaboration with clients in chip development, providing support to those with less manufacturing experience [2][3]. - The demand for AI is substantial, with expectations that it will significantly improve health outcomes, cure diseases, and enhance software development in the next decade [2][3]. - Arm does not perceive a bubble in AI, as the created capacity is being fully utilized across various industries to develop new applications and enhance productivity [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Arm's revenue for Q2 increased by 34% to approximately $1.14 billion, with earnings per share of $0.39, and licensing revenue of $515 million, exceeding analyst expectations [7]. - The company is experiencing strong demand for its Neoverse products used in data center computing, with revenue doubling [6][7]. - Arm's stock price rose approximately 3.6% in after-hours trading, reflecting a 30% increase year-to-date, although it still lags behind other chip stocks benefiting from AI demand [7]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Arm is transforming into a more comprehensive design provider under CEO Rene Haas, aiming to capture market share in AI computing data centers [5][6]. - The company plans to acquire DreamBig Semiconductor Inc., which produces chips for networking, indicating a strategic move to enhance its offerings [7].

Core Viewpoint - Arm Holdings reported strong Q2 FY2026 results with record revenue of $1.14 billion, a 34% year-over-year increase, exceeding guidance by $75 million [1][10] - The growth was driven by increased demand for AI computing across various sectors, including data centers, smartphones, automotive, and IoT [6][10] Revenue Breakdown - Royalty revenue reached a record $620 million, up 21% year-over-year, benefiting from growth in all major markets [1][10] - Licensing revenue surged 56% to $515 million, driven by customer demand for next-generation AI products [1][10][11] - Annual Contract Value (ACV) increased by 28%, significantly above the company's long-term expectations of mid-single-digit growth [1][11] AI Computing Demand - The acceleration in AI computing demand spans from milliwatt-level edge devices to megawatt-level hyperscale data centers [2][6] - Arm's Neoverse platform has seen significant adoption, with over 1 billion CPUs deployed, addressing power constraints in data centers [2][6] - Strategic partnerships, such as with Meta, aim to enhance AI efficiency across unified computing platforms [2][6] Market Trends - The demand for computing subsystems (CSS) continues to exceed expectations, with 19 CSS licensing agreements signed [2][7] - The introduction of Lumix CSS mobile computing platform enhances AI capabilities in mobile devices [8] - The automotive sector is witnessing advancements with Arm's technology, contributing to the development of smart vehicles [8] Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q3 revenue midpoint of $1.225 billion, representing approximately 25% year-over-year growth [13] - Royalty revenue is expected to grow slightly above 20%, while licensing revenue is projected to increase by 25% to 30% [13] - Continued investment in R&D is planned to capture the vast opportunities presented by AI [13][47]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q2 reached $1.14 billion, up 34% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive billion-dollar quarter [4][11] - Royalty revenue hit a record $620 million, up 21% year-on-year, driven by growth across major markets [4][11] - Licensing revenue rose 56% to $515 million, reflecting strong demand for next-generation architectures [4][13] - Non-GAAP operating income was $467 million, up 43% year-on-year, resulting in a non-GAAP operating margin of 41.1% [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Royalty revenue from smartphones grew significantly, driven by higher royalty rates per chip and the deployment of Arm V9 and CSS chips [12][13] - Data center royalties more than doubled year-on-year due to the deployment of Arm-based chips by hyperscaler companies [12][13] - CSS licenses increased, with three new licenses signed during the quarter, bringing the total to 19 across 11 companies [7][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for compute in data centers has surged, with Arm's neoverse royalties more than doubling year-on-year [21] - The automotive sector continues to grow, with significant advancements in AI performance for electric vehicles [9] - The software developer ecosystem has expanded to over 22 million, representing over 80% of the world's developer base, driving further demand for Arm's compute platform [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a strategic partnership with Meta to enhance AI efficiency across various compute layers [6] - Continued investment in R&D is prioritized to meet the increasing demand for Arm technology, particularly in AI [10][16] - The company is exploring opportunities beyond its current platform, including chiplets and complex SOCs [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that power has become a bottleneck in data centers, emphasizing the efficiency of Arm's compute platform [20] - The future demand for compute is expected to grow, particularly as AI workloads transition from cloud to edge devices [61] - The company remains confident in its long-term growth trajectory and strategy to enable AI everywhere [16][71] Other Important Information - Non-GAAP operating expenses were $648 million, up 31% year-on-year, reflecting strong R&D investment [15] - The company expects Q3 revenue of $1.225 billion, representing approximately 25% year-on-year growth [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: AI opportunity and data center deals - Management noted that power efficiency is critical, with Arm being about 50% more efficient than competitors, driving growth in the neoverse business [20][21] Question: Acquisition of Dream Big Semiconductor - The acquisition aims to enhance Arm's offerings in high-speed communications, particularly in data centers [24] Question: Related party revenue and SoftBank relationship - Management explained that the relationship with SoftBank provides significant opportunities for technology integration in data center solutions [27] Question: OPEX and go-to-market strategies - Management indicated that details on new products will be shared once milestones are achieved, focusing on R&D investments [30][32] Question: SoftBank contribution and revenue streams - The contribution from SoftBank was approximately $178 million, with expectations for continued strong revenue streams [36] Question: Stargate revenue opportunities - Management expressed optimism about the demand for compute, indicating that the opportunity has grown since the Stargate announcement [44] Question: Arm's penetration in data centers - Management confirmed that Arm technology is increasingly used across networking stacks, with expectations for royalty revenue to rise [52][53] Question: Chip demand and inference world - Management anticipates a shift from cloud-based training to edge-based inference, which will benefit Arm's position in the market [61] Question: Performance in China - The demand in China has been strong, with licensing being a significant driver of revenue growth [66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q2 2026 reached $1.14 billion, up 34% year-on-year, marking the best second quarter ever and the third consecutive billion-dollar quarter [5][11] - Royalty revenue hit a record $620 million, up 21% year-on-year, driven by growth across all major markets [5][12] - Licensing revenue increased by 56% to $515 million, reflecting strong demand for next-generation architectures [5][12] - Non-GAAP operating income was $467 million, up 43% year-on-year, resulting in a non-GAAP operating margin of 41.1% [15][11] - Non-GAAP EPS was $0.39, exceeding the midpoint of guidance by 6 cents [15][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Royalty revenue from smartphones grew significantly, driven by higher royalty rates per chip, while data center royalties doubled year-on-year due to the deployment of Arm-based chips by hyperscaler companies [12][5] - The addition of five new CSS licenses brought the total to 19 across 11 companies, indicating strong demand for compute subsystems [8][12] - CSS has become a starting point for customers building next-generation silicon, with significant interest in the newly launched Lumix CSS platform [9][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The data center market saw unprecedented compute demand, with Arm's neoverse royalties more than doubling year-on-year [5][20] - China accounted for approximately 22% of sales in Q2, with strong demand driven by licensing deals [67][68] - The mix of royalty revenues from cloud and networking is expected to increase, potentially reaching 15-20% of total royalty revenues [52][55] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a strategic partnership with Meta to enhance AI efficiency across various compute layers [6][5] - Continued investment in R&D is prioritized to meet the increasing demand for Arm technology, particularly in AI and edge computing [11][15] - The company is exploring opportunities to expand beyond its current platform into additional compute subsystems, chiplets, or complex SOCs [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that power has become a bottleneck in data centers, driving the need for more efficient compute platforms [19][20] - The demand for compute is expected to grow as AI workloads transition from cloud to edge devices, presenting significant opportunities for Arm [63][64] - The company remains confident in its long-term growth trajectory and strategy to enable AI everywhere [16][11] Other Important Information - Non-GAAP operating expenses were $648 million, up 31% year-on-year, reflecting strong R&D investment [15][11] - The company signed a deal to acquire Dream Big Semiconductor, which will enhance its offerings in high-speed communications [24][11] Q&A Session Summary Question: AI opportunity and data center deals - Management expressed confidence in Arm's strategic positioning for AI deals, noting that power efficiency is critical and Arm's technology is about 50% more efficient than competitors [19][20] Question: Acquisition of Dream Big Semiconductor - The acquisition aims to enhance Arm's capabilities in scale-up and scale-out networking, which is crucial for data center demands [24][11] Question: Related party revenue and SoftBank relationship - Management indicated a significant increase in related party revenue, with ongoing collaboration with SoftBank providing opportunities for technology integration in data centers [26][27] Question: OPEX and go-to-market strategies - Management acknowledged the increase in OPEX but emphasized that revenue growth is outpacing OPEX increases, ensuring a balanced approach to investment [30][31] Question: SoftBank contribution and licensing pipeline - The contribution from SoftBank was approximately $178 million, with a strong licensing pipeline expected for the remainder of the year [36][37] Question: Revenue opportunity from Stargate - Management noted that the demand for compute has grown since the Stargate announcement, with expectations for significant revenue opportunities in the coming years [44][45] Question: Lumix CSS royalty revenues - Early royalty revenues from Lumix CSS were reported, indicating faster-than-expected adoption due to existing partnerships [46][47] Question: Chip demand and implications for Arm - Management highlighted the shift from cloud to edge computing, with increasing demand for Arm's scalable solutions for AI workloads [63][64] Question: Performance in China - Strong demand in China was attributed to significant licensing deals, with licensing being a larger driver than royalties this quarter [67][68]

Core Viewpoint - Arm has established itself as a dominant player in the chip architecture market, transitioning from a focus on general computing solutions to developing infrastructure-specific technologies with its Neoverse product line, which caters to data centers, edge computing, and high-performance computing (HPC) [2][3][4]. Group 1: Arm's Market Position and Product Lines - Arm was founded in 1990 and began licensing its processor IP in 1993, later acquired by SoftBank for $32 billion in 2016, and went public again in 2023 while remaining under SoftBank's majority ownership [2]. - The Neoverse product line is categorized into three main series: the V series for high-performance general computing, the N series for server markets, and the E series for edge computing [3][4]. - The V2 series is utilized by major companies like AWS, Google, and Nvidia, while the N2 series is used in Microsoft's Cobalt chips, highlighting Arm's integration into significant cloud and AI workloads [4][8]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Challenges - The industry is shifting focus from traditional computing to encompass networking and storage, driven by the emergence of Data Processing Units (DPUs) and the need for more integrated solutions [5][10]. - Arm's approach to Neoverse has evolved to provide integrated subsystems that allow for rapid customization without significant investment, changing the game for data center optimization [7][12]. - The demand for performance is increasing, with a blurred line between power and performance in AI systems, necessitating a focus on optimizing infrastructure to meet these demands [10][11]. Group 3: Future Directions and Innovations - Arm aims to facilitate seamless workload migration across infrastructures, emphasizing the importance of efficiency and performance in a system-level world [13]. - The company is recognized for its partnerships with major hyperscale companies, which enhances its reputation and assures new clients of the longevity and reliability of its products [12]. - By 2025, a significant portion of infrastructure investments is expected to concentrate on a few technology providers, most of whom collaborate with Arm, indicating a trend towards customizable chips designed for specific workloads [11][12].