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数据算法飞轮启动，中重度游戏、电商行业拓展，业绩加速上行。 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.21 投资要点： 数据算法飞轮启动，业绩加速上行 汇量科技(1860) 本报告导读： [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(港元) | 4.55-20.98 | | --- | --- | | 当前股本(百万股) | 1,574 | | 当前市值(百万港元) | 24,462 | [Table_PicQuote] 52周股价走势图 -41% 2% 45% 88% 130% 173% 2025/3 2025/7 2025/11 2026/3 汇量科技 恒生指数 [Table_Report] 相关报告 股 票 研 究 海 外 公 司 ( 中 国 香 港 ) | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 2047 | 2601 | 3258 | 3864 | | (+/-)% | 36% | 27% | 25% | 19% | | 归母净利润 | ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.21 数据算法飞轮启动，业绩加速上行 汇量科技(1860) 本报告导读： 数据算法飞轮启动，中重度游戏、电商行业拓展，业绩加速上行。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 2047 | 2601 | 3258 | 3864 | | (+/-)% | 36% | 27% | 25% | 19% | | 归母净利润 | 62 | 151 | 245 | 338 | | (+/-)% | 291% | 145% | 62% | 38% | | EPS | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 0.21 | | PE | 48.49 | 22.49 | 13.89 | 10.04 | | 资料来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 | | | | | [Table_Industry] 海外信息科技 | | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | [Table_Marke ...

Core Insights - AppLovin (APP) is expanding its AI-driven ad stack, initially focused on gaming, into web-based e-commerce, aiming to create a second growth avenue as self-serve capabilities develop [1][3] - The current revenue structure remains consolidated under a unified auction system, making it challenging for investors to assess diversification through revenue breakdowns [4] Expansion into E-Commerce - The transition to e-commerce is in its early stages, with gaming still being the primary revenue source [2] - Management is leveraging the Axon engine to enhance recommendations and improve marketplace outcomes through increased advertiser diversity [3] Self-Serve Capabilities - Self-serve Axon Ads for e-commerce are currently available on a referral-only basis, with general availability expected in the first half of 2026 [5] - This self-serve model is crucial for scaling operations and increasing advertiser engagement [5] Conversion Metrics - Approximately 57% of qualified leads currently convert to go-live, indicating a bottleneck in the conversion process [6] - Closing creative gaps is essential to improve this conversion rate and facilitate e-commerce growth [7] Creative Automation Initiatives - AppLovin is piloting creative automation tools, including an interactive page generator and a video ad generator, to enhance ad output and conversion rates [8][9] - These initiatives aim to reduce creative friction and increase efficiency in the advertising process [9] Prospecting Campaigns - The company has introduced prospecting campaigns that focus on acquiring new customers, which has shown rapid adoption [12] - These campaigns help merchants allocate budgets more effectively by targeting net-new customers rather than repeat buyers [12][13] Connected TV Integration - AppLovin's Wurl platform extends its capabilities into connected television, enhancing its advertising reach [14] - This move aligns with industry trends towards ad-tech convergence across various screens, indicating AppLovin's commitment to expanding its advertising solutions [15] Strategic Partnerships - A partnership with Stagwell aims to integrate Axon into Stagwell's media offerings, enhancing transparency and performance for mobile campaigns [16] - This collaboration could broaden access to AppLovin's tools through agency networks [16][17] Upcoming Milestones - Key indicators to watch in the first half of 2026 include progress towards general availability of self-serve e-commerce, improvements in conversion rates, and evidence of increased advertiser output from creative automation [18] - Seasonal dynamics may impact early traction, particularly as e-commerce activity normalizes post-holidays [19]

Core Insights - AppLovin Corporation has transformed into an AI-driven advertising platform aimed at enhancing audience reach and monetization across mobile and connected TV, with significant growth driven by Axon Ads Manager and the MAX marketplace in 2025 [1][6]. Business Model and Structure - The focus has shifted from individual app portfolios to a unified auction system that integrates measurement and distribution tools, facilitating expansion beyond gaming into web-based e-commerce [2]. - AppLovin operates as a single segment following the sale of its Apps business on June 30, 2025, with its current structure encompassing Axon, MAX, Adjust, and Wurl [5]. Financial Performance - In 2025, AppLovin reported total revenue of $5.5 billion, a 70% increase from $3.2 billion in 2024, primarily attributed to Axon Ads Manager [6]. - Revenue distribution was nearly equal, with approximately $2.8 billion from the U.S. and $2.6 billion from international markets, indicating a broad demand base [7]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw revenue rise to $1.66 billion, up 66% year over year, with diluted earnings per share increasing by 87% to $3.24 and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 84% [15][16]. Auction Dynamics and Technology - MAX's real-time bidding enhances bid density and improves the matching process between advertisers and available inventory, which supports better auction economics for publishers [8]. - The interaction between MAX and Axon creates a feedback loop that enhances data collection and campaign outcomes, contributing to an iterative performance improvement [11]. Future Growth and Guidance - Management anticipates a long-term potential to increase overall conversion rates to around 5%, up from historical low single-digit levels, driven by ongoing model iterations and infrastructure scaling [12]. - For Q1 2026, revenue guidance is set between $1.745 billion and $1.775 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected between $1.465 billion and $1.495 billion, reflecting confidence despite seasonal challenges [18]. E-commerce and Onboarding - The company is in the early stages of scaling its e-commerce and web capabilities, with onboarding improvements targeted for the first half of 2026 [21]. - The introduction of a new prospecting capability in Q4 2025 has shown rapid adoption, enhancing reach and performance despite seasonal headwinds [19].

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Core Viewpoint - AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) is considered a strong investment opportunity for long-term holding, with a positive outlook reiterated by William Blair following an investor meeting [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - AppLovin Corporation develops and operates a mobile marketing platform that includes services such as AppDiscovery, MAX, Adjust, and SparkLabs, aimed at enhancing marketing and monetization for mobile application developers [5]. Group 2: Management Insights - During the investor meeting, management addressed concerns about competitive threats from Meta, asserting that these concerns do not reflect the actual business environment [4]. - CEO Adam Foroughi expressed confidence in the company's current business trends and anticipated their continuation, while also highlighting share buybacks as an attractive option for cash deployment [4]. - Foroughi characterized AI as a long-term tailwind for the company rather than a threat, indicating a positive outlook on AI's role in the business [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The firm maintains a bullish sentiment on AppLovin's stock, emphasizing the company's growth potential in non-gaming advertising and AI opportunities [2].

Core Viewpoint - AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) has experienced significant volatility, with various analysts adjusting their price targets following the company's Q4 performance, which exceeded expectations in revenue, EBITDA, and EPS [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Scotiabank upgraded AppLovin's price target to $775 from $750 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing strong Q4 results and a promising e-commerce platform launch in H1 2026 [2]. - BofA reduced its price objective to $705 from $780 but kept a Buy rating, attributing the valuation drop to industry de-rating and slow e-commerce growth, while highlighting the gaming business as a support factor [3]. - Jefferies lowered its price goal to $700 from $860, maintaining a Buy rating and describing the quarterly results as outstanding after revising valuation assumptions [4]. - Wedbush increased its price target to $640 from $465 while keeping an Outperform rating, noting a quarterly earnings beat and solid gaming performance [4]. Group 2: Company Overview - AppLovin Corporation develops and operates a mobile marketing platform that includes AppDiscovery, MAX, Adjust, and SparkLabs, enabling mobile application developers to enhance app marketing and revenue [5].

Core Viewpoint - AppLovin has faced significant challenges from short-seller reports but has historically rebounded, although recent allegations of money laundering have led to a substantial decline in share price [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Background - AppLovin is a mobile technology firm that provides software platforms for app developers to market, monetize, analyze, and publish their content [6]. - The company's key offerings include MAX, AppDiscovery, Adjust, and Wurl, which cater to various aspects of app advertising and analytics [6]. Group 2: Recent Developments - A recent report from CapitalWatch accused AppLovin of being a "digital laundromat" for criminals, resulting in a 32% drop in shares following the allegations [2]. - Despite the money-laundering claims, the company has denied these accusations, attributing the stock's decline to broader market fears rather than the specific allegations [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2026, AppLovin's shares have decreased by 43% year-to-date, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which has seen less than a 1% loss [7]. - The trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 56.9, above the software industry average of around 45, indicating premium pricing for its growth story [8]. - The forward P/E ratio of 30.4 suggests expectations of earnings expansion, while the forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 21.1 indicates elevated valuations compared to the industry range of 10 to 15 [8]. - The PEG ratio of 1.5 implies that the stock is fairly valued when considering projected earnings growth rates exceeding 100% [8].

Core Insights - AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP) is recognized as one of the top 10 growth stocks on NASDAQ for the next decade, with a Buy rating and a price target of $835, indicating a potential upside of 53.96% from current levels [1] - Needham upgraded AppLovin from Hold to Buy, setting a price target of $700, which suggests a 29% upside, based on stronger-than-expected growth in e-commerce revenue [2][3] Company Overview - AppLovin Corporation develops a software-based platform aimed at enhancing monetization and marketing for advertisers, operating in the Apps and Advertising segments [4] Revenue Projections - The e-commerce revenue forecast for AppLovin has been increased to $1.45 billion for 2026, up from a previous estimate of $1.05 billion, reflecting confidence in growth driven by the self-service launch and increased advertiser spending [3]