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这不是一个均值回归的市场!高盛顶级交易员对市场的十大观察
美股IPO· 2025-08-01 09:06
Core Viewpoint - The current market is not characterized by "mean reversion," with AI significantly impacting tech giants, leading to better-than-expected performance and increased capital expenditures [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Meta Platforms reported impressive earnings, with advertising revenue growth accelerating by 2 percentage points to 22% year-over-year, driven by AI improvements [3][7]. - Microsoft's recent earnings report was outstanding, maintaining stable gross and operating margins despite significant capital expenditure increases and AI-driven revenue growth [4]. - AI investments are yielding clear returns for Meta, enhancing the efficiency and profitability of its advertising systems [5][7]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - Google raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast by approximately $18 billion to $102 billion, while Meta and Microsoft also significantly increased their capital expenditures [8]. - Meta's 2026 capital expenditure was adjusted upward by about $25 billion to $100 billion, and Microsoft's was raised to approximately $116 billion for 2026 [8]. Group 3: Software Industry Insights - The software industry is showing mixed results, with strong performances from Microsoft and ServiceNow, but disappointing results from Check Point and Confluent, indicating a challenging market environment [9]. - The software sector is described as a "stock-picking market," reflecting the ongoing volatility and lack of a clear upward trend [9]. Group 4: Cloud Services Growth - Public cloud services remain a major growth theme, with Microsoft's Azure revenue growth accelerating by 4 percentage points to 39% year-over-year, amid ongoing capacity shortages [10]. - Microsoft Fabric has seen a 55% year-over-year growth, with over 25,000 users, indicating strong demand for cloud services [10]. Group 5: AI and Internet Sector - The internet sector's sentiment towards AI is generally moderate, with companies leveraging AI to enhance user experiences, as seen with Meta and Booking Holdings [11]. - The narrative around AI assistants is gaining traction, showcasing the potential for personalized services in the internet space [11]. Group 6: Market Dynamics - The market is increasingly characterized by a "stronger gets stronger" dynamic, where favored AI-related large-cap stocks continue to attract capital and outperform [12]. - Companies that have lagged behind, even with lowered expectations or valuations, continue to struggle post-earnings announcements [12].