Analysts on Wall Street project that Eli Lilly (LLY) will announce quarterly earnings of $6.99 per share in its forthcoming report, representing an increase of 31.4% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $17.87 billion, increasing 32.1% from the same quarter last year.The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 8.6% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This reflects how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reevaluated their initial estimates during this ti ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly (LLY) is a market leader in the GLP-1 segment with its tirzepatide medicines Mounjaro and Zepbound, while also generating significant revenue from its oncology franchise, which accounted for over 15% of its first-half 2025 revenues, growing approximately 10% year over year [1] Oncology Sales Performance - The oncology unit's sales for Q3 2025 are estimated at $2.58 billion, reflecting over 15% year-over-year growth, primarily driven by the blockbuster breast cancer drug Verzenio, which saw increased demand and higher prices, despite currency headwinds and competitive pressures [2][9] - Sales from RET inhibitor Retevmo and lymphoma drug Jaypirca are expected to positively contribute to growth, although this may be partially offset by declining sales of older drugs like Alimta and Cyramza due to competition from immuno-oncology agents [3] New Drug Launch - Eli Lilly received FDA approval for its new breast cancer drug Inluriyo in late September, but the launch is expected to occur in the coming weeks, meaning no sales contribution from this drug in Q3 [4] Market Dynamics - Attention is shifting towards Lilly's oncology unit, which is demonstrating consistent double-digit growth, potentially reassuring investors that the company's earnings are not solely reliant on the obesity segment ahead of Q3 results on October 30 [5] Competitive Landscape - Major competitors in the oncology space include AstraZeneca, Merck, and Pfizer, with AstraZeneca's oncology sales accounting for nearly 43% of total revenues and growing 11% in the first half of 2025, driven by drugs like Tagrisso and Lynparza [6] - Merck's Keytruda accounted for over 48% of its total revenues in the first half of 2025, while Pfizer's oncology revenues grew 9% operationally, driven by drugs like Xtandi and Lorbrena [7] Valuation and Estimates - Eli Lilly's shares are currently trading at a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.99, which is higher than the industry average of 15.56 but below its five-year mean of 34.54 [10] - EPS estimates for 2025 have decreased from $23.15 to $22.86, and for 2026 from $30.82 to $30.78 over the past 30 days [12]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect Eli Lilly (LLY) to report quarterly earnings of $5.61 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 43.1%, with revenues projected at $14.75 billion, up 30.5% from the previous year [1] Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 1.5% in the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [1][2] Key Metrics Forecast - Analysts predict 'Net Sales- Cyramza' at $246.20 million, a decrease of 1.1% year-over-year [4] - 'Net Sales- Humulin' is expected to be $206.10 million, down 7.8% year-over-year [4] - 'Net Sales- Humalog' is projected at $609.52 million, reflecting a decline of 3.5% from the previous year [4] - 'Net Sales- Forteo' is estimated at $62.76 million, down 10.2% year-over-year [5] - 'Net Sales- International-Forteo' is forecasted at $34.28 million, a decrease of 11% [5] - 'Net Sales- Cyramza (ROW)' is expected to reach $130.32 million, down 1.9% year-over-year [6] - 'Net Sales- Emgality (ROW)' is projected at $42.01 million, indicating a significant decline of 22.8% [6] - 'Net Sales- International-Alimta' is estimated at $17.05 million, down 20.3% from the previous year [6] - 'Net Sales- US-Humulin' is expected to be $154.98 million, down 8.5% year-over-year [7] - 'Net Sales- Emgality (US)' is projected at $135.67 million, reflecting a decrease of 1.4% [7] - 'Net Sales- US-Humalog' is estimated at $412.17 million, down 5.2% year-over-year [7] - 'Net Sales- US-Forteo' is expected to reach $28.73 million, indicating a decline of 8.8% [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Lilly have returned -2.4%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% change [8]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly reported a revenue of $12.73 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, marking a 45.2% increase year-over-year, with an EPS of $3.34 compared to $2.58 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.62 billion by 0.86%, while the EPS fell short of the consensus estimate of $3.52 by 5.11% [1] Financial Performance - Key metrics indicate that Eli Lilly's shares have returned +9.9% over the past month, contrasting with a -0.7% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3] Sales Breakdown - Verzenio in the U.S. generated net sales of $657.60 million, below the average estimate of $720.57 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3% [4] - Neuroscience products in the U.S. achieved net sales of $189.30 million, slightly above the average estimate of $188.66 million, with a year-over-year growth of 16% [4] - Geographic revenue from the U.S. reached $8.49 billion, slightly below the $8.50 billion estimate, representing a 49.1% year-over-year increase [4] - Humalog's net sales were $335.10 million, below the average estimate of $361.22 million, showing a year-over-year decline of 1% [4] - Cyramza's total net sales were $224.90 million, slightly below the estimate of $227.45 million, with a year-over-year decrease of 2.2% [4] - Humulin's net sales were $173.20 million, significantly below the estimate of $203.01 million, reflecting a 16% year-over-year decline [4] - Forteo's net sales were $66.60 million, exceeding the average estimate of $50.84 million, with an 8.7% year-over-year increase [4] - Erbitux's net sales were $149 million, slightly above the estimate of $146.04 million, indicating a 3% year-over-year increase [4] - Alimta's net sales were $28.20 million, significantly below the estimate of $46.13 million, showing a 59.4% year-over-year decline [4] - Other pharmaceuticals generated net sales of $212.90 million, slightly below the estimate of $213.18 million, reflecting a 12% year-over-year decline [4] - Oncology products achieved net sales of $1.95 billion, below the average estimate of $2.07 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 7.6% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Company is set to report its first-quarter earnings on May 1, with sales and earnings estimates at $12.62 billion and $3.52 per share, respectively. However, earnings estimates for 2025 have seen a decline from $23.53 to $22.43 per share over the past month [1][4]. Earnings Performance - The company has had a mixed earnings performance, exceeding expectations in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 8.47% [2][3]. Earnings Estimates and Trends - Current earnings estimates for Q1, Q2, 2025, and 2026 are $3.52, $5.58, $22.43, and $31.15 per share, respectively. Notably, the earnings estimate for Q1 has decreased by 22.30% over the past month [1][4]. Factors Influencing Upcoming Results - Top-line growth in Q1 is expected to be driven by demand for FDA-approved tirzepatide medicines, specifically the diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine Zepbound. However, sales of these drugs were below expectations in the latter half of 2024 due to slower growth and unfavorable channel dynamics [5][6]. Sales Estimates for Key Products - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mounjaro and Zepbound is $3.75 billion and $2.27 billion, respectively, while the company's estimates are $3.82 billion and $2.19 billion. Increased demand for other key growth drugs is also anticipated to support top-line growth [8][10]. Competitive Landscape - Sales of Trulicity are expected to decline due to competitive dynamics and lower realized prices in the U.S., with patient switches to Mounjaro impacting its performance [9][22]. The obesity market is becoming increasingly competitive, with several companies developing GLP-1-based candidates [23][24]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Lilly's stock has risen 14.8% year-to-date, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 index. The stock is currently trading at a premium compared to the industry [13][16]. Investment Outlook - Despite challenges, including declining sales of key products and increasing competition, the company is viewed as having robust growth prospects, particularly with new product launches and expansions planned for 2025 [20][25].