Core Insights - Eli Lilly's share price increased over 30% in the past year following strong sales of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and positive guidance for 2026 [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Sales of Mounjaro surged 110% to $7.4 billion in Q4, while Zepbound revenue increased 123% from $1.9 billion a year ago to $4.3 billion [2] - Overall Q4 revenue grew by 43% to $19.29 billion, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rising 42% to $7.54, exceeding analyst expectations [4] Group 2: Future Guidance - The company projects 2026 revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, indicating a 25% growth at the midpoint, with adjusted EPS forecasted to range from $33.50 to $35 [5] - Projections for 2026 are significantly above consensus estimates, which anticipated EPS of $33.23 on sales of $77.72 billion [5] Group 3: Product Outlook - Continued strong demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound is expected, potentially enhanced by Medicare coverage later this year [6] - The anticipated approval of orforglipron for obesity in Q2 presents a significant opportunity, as it is an oral medication rather than an injectable, which may attract a larger market [7]

华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈·第162期 2025年1-11月实体药店市场分析 本周专题联系人：高初蕾 | 华创医药团队： | | | --- | --- | | 首席分析师郑辰 | 执业编号：S0360520110002邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | 联席首席分析师刘浩 | 执业编号: S0360520120002邮箱: liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长李蝉娟 | 执业编号：S0360520110004邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长高初蕾 | 执业编号：S0360524070002邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 高级分析师王宏雨 | 执业编号: S0360523080006邮箱: wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 高级分析师朱珂琛 | 执业编号：S0360524070007邮箱：zhukechen@hcyjs.com | | 分析师陈俊威 | 执业编号：S0360525060002邮箱:chenjunwei@hcyjs.com | | 分析师张良龙 | 执业编号：S0360525 ...

Booming sales for GLP-1RA drugs fuelled a 45% surge in Eli Lilly’s revenue for 2025, cementing the drugmaker’s dominant position in the obesity market. Lilly’s total revenue reached $65.2bn for the full-year 2025, a significant increase from the $45bn recorded in 2024. Shares in Lilly jumped 7.1% to $1075.12 at market open on 4 February from a previous close of $1003.46. Share price continued to rise further to $1100 by 11.15am ET, a 9.62% increase on the 3 February close. Lilly’s market cap is fluctuati ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.54, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.99, and a year-over-year earnings increase of 42% [1] - Revenues reached $19.3 billion, a 43% increase year over year, driven by the success of GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.87 billion [1] Revenue Drivers - Mounjaro generated sales of $7.41 billion, up 110% year over year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.65 billion [2] - Zepbound recorded sales of $4.26 billion, a 123% increase year over year, also beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.87 billion [3] Competitive Landscape - Mounjaro and Zepbound face competition from Novo Nordisk's semaglutide products, with Novo Nordisk reporting a decline in its Diabetes and Obesity Care segment sales due to competitive pressure from Lilly's offerings [4] - Despite competitive dynamics, Mounjaro and Zepbound are expected to maintain strong demand in 2026 [13] Other Drug Performance - Trulicity generated $1.04 billion in revenue, down 17% year over year, but still beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.0 billion [5] - Jardiance sales fell 36% to $768 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $776 million [5] - Taltz brought in $1.05 billion, up 10% year over year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $955 million [6] - Verzenio generated $1.60 billion, up 3% year over year, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.62 billion [6] Full-Year Performance - For the full year 2025, Eli Lilly's sales rose 45% to $65.2 billion, significantly beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $63.54 billion [10] - Adjusted earnings for 2025 were $24.21 per share, an 86% increase year over year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $23.74 [10] 2026 Outlook - Eli Lilly expects 2026 revenues in the range of $80 billion to $83 billion, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $77.5 billion [11] - EPS for 2026 is projected to be between $33.50 and $35.00, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $33.24 [11] Market Reaction - Following the positive quarterly earnings and optimistic 2026 outlook, Lilly's shares rose approximately 9% in pre-market trading [14] - Over the past year, Lilly's stock has increased by 19.2%, outperforming the industry average of 17.1% [14] Strategic Initiatives - Lilly is investing in obesity treatments and has several new molecules in clinical development, including orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 small molecule [16][17] - The company is diversifying its portfolio beyond GLP-1 drugs into cardiovascular, oncology, and neuroscience areas, including recent acquisitions to enhance its capabilities in oral small-molecule therapies [19]

Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE:LLY) stock is trading higher after the company released better-than-expected Q4 earnings and issued fiscal 2026 guidance.Earnings OverviewEli Lilly reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $7.54 per share, beating the consensus of $6.67.The company's sales reached $19.3 billion, beating the consensus of $17.96 billion.Sales jumped 43% year over year, driven by a 46% increase in volume, partially offset by a 5% decrease due to lower realized prices.Gross profit increased 43% to $1 ...

更为重要的是，礼来对未来的展望极大提振了市场信心。公司预计2026年全年营收将在800亿美元至830亿美元之间，轻松击败华尔街平 均预期的777亿美元；调整后每股收益预计在33.50美元至35.00美元之间，同样优于分析师预期的33.08美元。礼来正利用其专利护城河、 更积极的产能扩张以及即将推出的口服制剂，在与远程医疗公司廉价仿制药及诺和诺德的竞争中占据上风。 核心单品不仅是"印钞机"：Mounjaro与Zepbound合计贡献超六成营收 得益于GLP-1减肥药销量的爆发，礼来四季度营收、利润以及全年指引均超出市场预期。在减肥药双雄的巅峰对决中，礼来似乎已经给出了 胜负的答案。诺和诺德此前警告称，受价格战加剧影响，今年销售额可能下滑13%，而礼来却预计自身销售额将实现高达27%的增长。 在减肥药双雄的巅峰对决中，礼来（Eli Lilly）似乎已经给出了胜负的答案。 美东时间周三，礼来公布了强劲的2025年第四季度财报，并给出了远超华尔街预期的2026年业绩指引。受此消息刺激，礼来股价美股盘 前一度大涨8%。这一乐观前景与竞争对手诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk）周二发布的悲观预警形成了鲜明对比——诺和诺德 ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company reported significant financial growth in Q4 2025, with a 43% increase in revenue to $19.3 billion compared to Q4 2024, driven by strong volume growth from key products like Mounjaro and Zepbound [3][4][8] - The company provided optimistic financial guidance for 2026, projecting revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion and non-GAAP EPS in the range of $33.50 to $35.00 [25][26] Financial Results - Q4 2025 revenue reached $19.3 billion, a 43% increase from $13.5 billion in Q4 2024, with a 46% increase in volume offset by a 5% decrease in realized prices [4][8] - Net income for Q4 2025 was $6.6 billion, up 50% from $4.4 billion in Q4 2024, with reported EPS increasing by 51% to $7.39 [11][15] - Non-GAAP net income for Q4 2025 was $6.8 billion, a 41% increase from $4.8 billion in Q4 2024, with non-GAAP EPS rising by 42% to $7.54 [14][37] Revenue Breakdown - U.S. revenue increased by 43% to $12.9 billion, driven by a 50% increase in volume, primarily from Zepbound and Mounjaro [5][8] - International revenue also rose by 43% to $6.4 billion, with a 38% increase in volume, largely attributed to Mounjaro [6][8] Key Product Performance - Mounjaro revenue surged by 110% to $7.4 billion in Q4 2025, with U.S. revenue at $4.1 billion, reflecting strong demand [18] - Zepbound revenue increased by 123% to $4.3 billion in Q4 2025, driven by heightened demand [19] - Verzenio revenue saw a modest increase of 3% to $1.6 billion, with U.S. revenue declining by 4% [20] Regulatory and Pipeline Developments - Regulatory advancements included FDA approvals for Kwikpen for tirzepatide and expanded indications for Jaypirca, along with submissions for orforglipron for obesity [8][21] - Positive Phase 3 trial results were reported for Taltz and Zepbound in treating psoriatic arthritis and obesity [23] Operational Expenses - Research and development expenses rose by 26% to $3.8 billion, representing 20% of revenue, reflecting ongoing investments in the product pipeline [9] - Marketing, selling, and administrative expenses increased by 29% to $3.1 billion, driven by promotional efforts for product launches [10] Gross Margin and Tax Rate - Gross margin for Q4 2025 was $15.9 billion, a 43% increase, with a gross margin percentage of 82.5% [9][12] - The effective tax rate for Q4 2025 was 19.7%, up from 12.5% in Q4 2024, influenced by a less favorable jurisdictional mix of earnings [10][13]

Core Insights - Financial giants are showing a bullish sentiment towards Eli Lilly and Co, with 47% of traders being bullish and 29% bearish based on options trading analysis [1] - The predicted price range for Eli Lilly and Co is between $720.0 and $1580.0, indicating significant interest from major players [2] - The average open interest for options stands at 224.91, with a total volume of 1,733.00, reflecting active trading in the past month [3] Options Activity - The largest options trades include a bullish sweep call with a total trade value of $967.9K at a strike price of $1160.00, indicating strong bullish sentiment [6] - Other notable trades include bearish calls with varying strike prices, showcasing mixed sentiments among traders [6] Company Overview - Eli Lilly and Co specializes in neuroscience, cardiometabolic, cancer, and immunology, with key products including Verzenio, Mounjaro, and Taltz [7] - Analysts have set an average price target of $1205.5 for Eli Lilly and Co, reflecting positive expectations for the stock [8] Market Performance - The current trading volume for Eli Lilly is 709,068, with the stock price up by 0.99% to $1089.16, indicating a stable market position [10] - Analysts from Guggenheim maintain a Buy rating with a target price of $1161, while UBS has adjusted its target price to $1250, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [10]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are competing in the rapidly growing weight loss market, alongside their long-standing rivalry in diabetes medications [1][2] Group 1: Market Position - Novo Nordisk had a first-mover advantage with its diabetes drug Ozempic, which was introduced in 2018 and later led to the approval of Wegovy in 2021 for weight management [4] - Eli Lilly's Zepbound (tirzepatide) received approval in late 2023 and has surpassed Wegovy in quarterly sales due to its superior effectiveness demonstrated in clinical trials [4] Group 2: Product Development - Novo Nordisk is advancing with an oral formulation of Wegovy and has submitted an application for CagriSema, another weight loss therapy [5] - Eli Lilly is close to obtaining approval for its oral weight loss medication orforglipron and has a candidate, retatrutide, that achieved a mean weight loss of 28.7% after 68 weeks, the best in the industry [6] Group 3: Revenue Diversification - Novo Nordisk relies heavily on its diabetes and weight loss products for revenue, lacking blockbuster drugs outside these markets [7] - Eli Lilly has a more diversified portfolio, including cancer and psoriasis treatments like Verzenio and Taltz, each generating over $1 billion in annual sales [7]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly (LLY) has established a strong position in the cardiometabolic market, primarily due to the success of its GLP-1 therapies, Mounjaro and Zepbound, which generated $24.8 billion in sales, representing 54% of total revenues in the first nine months of 2025 [1][10] Group 1: Product Performance - Mounjaro and Zepbound's sales growth is attributed to improved domestic supply and expansion into new international markets, prompting Eli Lilly to raise its sales and earnings guidance twice in 2025 [2] - Sales estimates for Mounjaro and Zepbound for the upcoming quarter are projected at $6.55 billion and $3.62 billion, respectively, driven by stronger market penetration in the U.S. and international adoption [3] Group 2: Broader Portfolio Growth - Eli Lilly's portfolio, including oncology drug Verzenio and immunology drug Taltz, continues to show steady growth, with new launches like Omvoh, Ebglyss, Jaypirca, and Kisunla contributing to overall revenue [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk (NVO) are the leading players in the obesity market, with Mounjaro and Zepbound competing against NVO's semaglutide products, Ozempic and Wegovy [5] - Novo Nordisk received FDA approval for its oral Wegovy pill, enhancing its competitive edge, while Eli Lilly is seeking FDA approval for its own oral GLP-1 pill, orforglipron [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The obesity market is gaining attention due to its significant growth potential, with smaller biotech firms like Viking Therapeutics and Structure Therapeutics developing competing GLP-1 therapies [7][8] Group 5: Stock Performance and Valuation - Eli Lilly's stock has increased by 35.9% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average of 20.9% [11] - The stock is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 31.58, which is higher than the industry average of 17.86, but below its five-year mean of 34.56 [14] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have improved from $23.69 to $23.85 per share, and for 2026 from $32.06 to $33.25 [18]