Core Insights - Demand for Eli Lilly's GLP-1 medicines, Mounjaro and Zepbound, remains robust, generating $6.15 billion in Q1 2025, accounting for approximately 48% of total revenues [1][8] - Sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound rebounded in Q1 2025 due to new international market launches and improved supply, despite lower-than-expected sales in the second half of 2024 [2][8] - The company anticipates Q2 2025 sales of $4.5 billion for Mounjaro and $3.1 billion for Zepbound, driven by deeper market penetration [3][8] Company Performance - Eli Lilly's broader portfolio, including oncology and immunology drugs, continues to show steady growth, with contributions from recently launched products [4] - The company's shares have outperformed the industry year-to-date, indicating strong market performance [7] Industry Context - The U.S. obesity market is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as the primary competitors [5] - Novo Nordisk's semaglutide medicines, Ozempic and Wegovy, compete directly with Lilly's offerings, contributing significantly to Novo's revenues [5] - Other companies, such as Viking Therapeutics, are also advancing in the obesity space with new investigational drugs [6] Valuation and Estimates - Eli Lilly's shares are currently trading at a P/E ratio of 29.66, above the industry average of 15.16, but below its five-year mean of 34.54 [10] - The bottom-line estimate for 2025 remains at $21.92, while the estimate for 2026 has slightly decreased from $30.91 to $30.84 [11]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly has shown exceptional financial performance and market growth, leading to a high forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 35, which is significantly above the healthcare industry average of 15.8, raising questions about the timing of investment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Leadership in Weight Loss - Eli Lilly has established itself as a leader in the diabetes drug market and has made significant strides in the anti-obesity sector, with products like Mounjaro and Zepbound generating over $1 billion in quarterly revenue [4]. - The company is advancing its pipeline with investigational drugs such as orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 medicine, and retatrutide, a triple agonist, both showing promising clinical results [5]. - Eli Lilly has outperformed its competitor Novo Nordisk in the weight management market, capitalizing on clinical successes while the latter faced setbacks [6]. Group 2: Diversification of Product Line and Pipeline - Eli Lilly's portfolio includes successful drugs like Verzenio for cancer and Taltz for immunosuppression, along with potential future blockbusters such as Kisunla for Alzheimer's and Ebglyss for eczema [8]. - The company is actively expanding its pipeline through acquisitions, including SiteOne Therapeutics for $1 billion, which focuses on a non-opioid pain treatment, and Verve Therapeutics for $1.3 billion, which develops gene-editing therapies for cardiovascular diseases [9][10]. Group 3: Financial Outlook and Valuation Justification - Despite a high valuation that may deter some investors, Eli Lilly's revenue grew by 45% year over year to $12.7 billion, with net income increasing by 29% to $3 billion, showcasing strong financial health [12]. - The company's ongoing developments in weight management and diabetes are expected to yield significant clinical and regulatory successes, supporting above-average growth in the coming years, thus justifying its premium valuation [13].

Core Insights - Eli Lilly has been a top-performing healthcare megacap stock, driven primarily by its advancements in diabetes and weight loss markets, positioning it as a leader alongside Novo Nordisk [1][2] - The recent acquisition of SiteOne Therapeutics for $1 billion highlights Eli Lilly's strategy to diversify its portfolio beyond diabetes and obesity treatments [4][5] Financial Performance - In Q1, Eli Lilly's revenue grew by 45% year over year to $12.73 billion, with significant contributions from its cancer drug Verzenio, which generated $1.2 billion in sales, and immunosuppressant Taltz, which brought in $762 million [6][7] - Sales from products outside diabetes and obesity accounted for nearly 28% of Eli Lilly's total revenue, indicating a more diversified revenue stream compared to Novo Nordisk [7] Product Pipeline and Market Position - Eli Lilly's newer products include treatments for Alzheimer's disease, oncology, and eczema, showcasing its commitment to expanding beyond its core areas [8] - The company is also advancing in the GLP-1 market, with Mounjaro's revenue increasing by 113% year over year to $3.8 billion and Zepbound's sales rising by 347% to $2.3 billion in Q1 [9] - Eli Lilly has 11 obesity pipeline candidates, including the investigational oral GLP-1 therapy orforglipron, which recently passed a phase 3 study [10] Competitive Advantage - Eli Lilly's diversified portfolio and strong presence in multiple therapeutic areas, including oncology and immunology, provide a competitive edge over rivals, making it an attractive long-term investment [11]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company is set to present data on several investigational drugs at the 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting, including imlunestrant, olomorasib, LY4170156, and Verzenio [1] Group 1: Imlunestrant (Investigational Oral SERD) - The company will present patient-reported outcomes from the Phase 3 EMBER-3 trial for patients with ER+, HER2- advanced breast cancer [2] - Expanded safety analyses from the EMBER-3 trial will also be featured in a poster presentation [2] Group 2: Olomorasib (Investigational KRAS G12C Inhibitor) - Updated results from a Phase 1/2 study of olomorasib will be reported, showing preliminary evidence of CNS activity in combination with pembrolizumab for KRAS G12C-mutant advanced NSCLC and with cetuximab for KRAS G12C-mutant colorectal cancer [3] - The presentations will utilize data cut-off dates of January 15, 2025, and November 13, 2024 [3] Group 3: LY4170156 (Investigational ADC Targeting FRα) - Initial results from a Phase 1a/1b study of LY4170156 in patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer will be presented [4] - The study involves a humanized monoclonal antibody linked to a topoisomerase I inhibitor [4] Group 4: Verzenio (Abemaciclib) - The impact of body mass index (BMI) on the efficacy and safety of Verzenio in breast cancer patients will be discussed [8] - Verzenio is an approved treatment for certain HR+, HER2- breast cancers and is available in multiple strengths [12][13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company's full year revenue increased by 32%, reaching $45 billion, with fourth quarter revenue growing by 45% [19] - The company invested nearly $11 billion in R&D, representing about 24% of its revenue, with an 18% year-over-year increase [19] - A new $15 billion share repurchase program was announced, marking the seventh consecutive year of a 15% increase in quarterly dividends [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The performance of Monjaro, Zepbound, and Verzenio significantly contributed to revenue growth [16] - The company launched five new medicines since 2022, including Evolus, Jaypirca, Kisunla, Monjaro, Zepbound, and Omvoh, enhancing patient reach [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expanded its manufacturing capacity to meet increasing demand and opened new facilities, including the Lilly Seaport Innovation Center in Boston and a Lilly Gateway Lab in the UK [20][21] - A major investment in the United States was announced, bringing total manufacturing commitments since 2020 to over $50 billion [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on solving serious healthcare problems and aims to deliver life-changing medicines to millions [16] - The long-term balanced growth strategy includes advancements in obesity, diabetes, oncology, neuroscience, and immunology [16] - The company is complementing its pipeline through acquisitions and collaborations, such as acquiring Morphic Therapeutics and partnering with OpenAI [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential for significant growth from late-stage readouts in 2025 [17] - The company is committed to enhancing supply chain resilience and creating high-paying jobs through its investments [21] - Management emphasized the importance of their workforce and collaborations in achieving their goals [22] Other Important Information - The proposals to amend the articles of incorporation regarding the board structure and voting provisions did not receive the required votes [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Does the compensation committee use the compensation actually paid total in setting the CEO target total compensation award for the coming year? - Management clarified that the compensation actually paid is not used to set the target compensation, as it reflects a mark-to-market value rather than actual compensation [26][28] Question: How much training is provided to employees to prevent clicking on links resulting in malware or breaks in cybersecurity? - Management confirmed that a comprehensive cybersecurity program is in place, including training to prevent incidents related to malware [29]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Company reported mixed first-quarter 2025 results, missing earnings estimates but exceeding revenue expectations, driven by strong sales of its diabetes and weight loss medications [1][2][13]. Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS for Q1 2025 was $3.34, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.52, but representing a 29% year-over-year increase [1]. - Total revenues reached $12.73 billion, a 45% increase year-over-year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.62 billion [2]. Key Drug Sales - Mounjaro sales were $3.84 billion, up 113% year-over-year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.75 billion [3]. - Zepbound generated $2.31 billion in sales, compared to $1.91 billion in the previous quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.27 billion [4]. - Trulicity sales fell 25% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, aligning with the Zacks Consensus Estimate [6]. - Jardiance sales increased 48% to $1.01 billion, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $675 million [7]. - Taltz generated $761.9 million, up 30% year-over-year, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $663 million [7]. - Verzenio sales were $1.16 billion, a 10% increase year-over-year, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.25 billion [8]. - Emgality revenues dropped 45% to $124.6 million, while Olumiant sales rose 5% to $228.7 million [9]. Guidance and Market Position - The company maintained its 2025 revenue guidance of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, indicating a 32% year-over-year growth, but lowered EPS guidance to $20.78 to $22.28 [11][12]. - Competition from Novo Nordisk's semaglutide products is significant, with expectations of strong revenue growth for Novo's offerings [5][16]. - Lilly is investing in obesity treatments and has new molecules in clinical development, including a promising oral GLP-1 agonist [16][18]. Market Reaction - Despite strong sales, Lilly's shares fell nearly 5% in pre-market trading due to the EPS miss and lowered earnings guidance [14]. - CVS Caremark's decision to exclude Zepbound from its preferred drug list may impact sales [14]. - Lilly's stock has increased 16.7% year-to-date, outperforming the industry average of 3.5% [14].

Core Insights - Eli Lilly reported a revenue of $12.73 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, marking a 45.2% increase year-over-year, with an EPS of $3.34 compared to $2.58 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.62 billion by 0.86%, while the EPS fell short of the consensus estimate of $3.52 by 5.11% [1] Financial Performance - Key metrics indicate that Eli Lilly's shares have returned +9.9% over the past month, contrasting with a -0.7% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3] Sales Breakdown - Verzenio in the U.S. generated net sales of $657.60 million, below the average estimate of $720.57 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3% [4] - Neuroscience products in the U.S. achieved net sales of $189.30 million, slightly above the average estimate of $188.66 million, with a year-over-year growth of 16% [4] - Geographic revenue from the U.S. reached $8.49 billion, slightly below the $8.50 billion estimate, representing a 49.1% year-over-year increase [4] - Humalog's net sales were $335.10 million, below the average estimate of $361.22 million, showing a year-over-year decline of 1% [4] - Cyramza's total net sales were $224.90 million, slightly below the estimate of $227.45 million, with a year-over-year decrease of 2.2% [4] - Humulin's net sales were $173.20 million, significantly below the estimate of $203.01 million, reflecting a 16% year-over-year decline [4] - Forteo's net sales were $66.60 million, exceeding the average estimate of $50.84 million, with an 8.7% year-over-year increase [4] - Erbitux's net sales were $149 million, slightly above the estimate of $146.04 million, indicating a 3% year-over-year increase [4] - Alimta's net sales were $28.20 million, significantly below the estimate of $46.13 million, showing a 59.4% year-over-year decline [4] - Other pharmaceuticals generated net sales of $212.90 million, slightly below the estimate of $213.18 million, reflecting a 12% year-over-year decline [4] - Oncology products achieved net sales of $1.95 billion, below the average estimate of $2.07 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 7.6% [4]

Dave Ricks, Chair and Chief Executive Officer Q1 2025 Financial Results Lucas Montarce, Chief Financial Officer R&D Update Dan Skovronsky, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Scientific Officer Q1 2025 EARNINGS CALL ELI LILLY AND COMPANY Agenda Introduction and Key Events Closing Remarks Dave Ricks, Chair and Chief Executive Officer Question & Answer Session 3 2025 Q1 EARNINGS Safe Harbor Provision and Other Information This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on management's current expectations ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company reported a strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with a 45% year-over-year revenue growth driven by robust sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound [2][3][7] - The company is investing in manufacturing to meet global demand for its new medicines, including plans to build four new facilities [2][19] - The pipeline continues to show promise with recent product approvals in oncology and immunology, and positive Phase 3 trial results for orforglipron in diabetes and obesity [2][19] Financial Results - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $12.73 billion, a 45% increase from $8.77 billion in Q1 2024, primarily due to a 53% increase in volume [3][7] - Net income for Q1 2025 was $2.76 billion, up 23% from $2.24 billion in Q1 2024, with reported earnings per share (EPS) increasing to $3.06 from $2.48 [11][36] - Non-GAAP net income was $3.00 billion, a 29% increase from $2.34 billion in Q1 2024, with non-GAAP EPS rising to $3.34 from $2.58 [13][36] Revenue Breakdown - U.S. revenue increased by 49% to $8.49 billion, driven by a 57% increase in volume, mainly from Zepbound and Mounjaro [4][7] - Revenue outside the U.S. rose 38% to $4.24 billion, with a 46% increase in volume, primarily from Mounjaro and Jardiance [5][7] - Mounjaro revenue surged 113% to $3.84 billion, while Zepbound revenue reached $2.31 billion, up from $517.4 million in Q1 2024 [16][17] Cost and Margin Analysis - Gross margin increased 48% to $10.50 billion, with a gross margin percentage of 82.5%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous year [6][11] - Research and development expenses rose 8% to $2.73 billion, representing 21.5% of revenue, while marketing, selling, and administrative expenses increased 26% to $2.47 billion [8][11] Guidance and Future Outlook - The company reaffirmed its 2025 revenue guidance of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, with an expected performance margin of 40.5% to 42.5% on a reported basis [20][22] - The effective tax rate for 2025 is projected to be around 17%, up from approximately 16% [21][22] - EPS guidance for 2025 has been adjusted to a range of $20.17 to $21.67 on a reported basis, reflecting the impact of acquired IPR&D charges [22][23]