Investors with a lot of money to spend have taken a bearish stance on Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY).And retail traders should know.We noticed this today when the trades showed up on publicly available options history that we track here at Benzinga.Whether these are institutions or just wealthy individuals, we don't know. But when something this big happens with LLY, it often means somebody knows something is about to happen.So how do we know what these investors just did? Today, Benzinga's options scanner spotted 33 ...

Core Insights - The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) in Australia issued a safety alert regarding GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs), linking them to potential suicidal thoughts or behaviors, amidst increasing scrutiny of these weight-loss and diabetes medications [1][2][8] Regulatory Changes - All GLP-1 RAs marketed in Australia, including popular brands like Ozempic and Wegovy, will now feature a standardized warning about reported suicidal behavior and ideation [2][3] - The TGA's Advisory Committee on Medicines reviewed existing evidence and found no definitive causal link but noted inconsistencies in product information, prompting a harmonized update [3][4] Market Implications - The rising use of GLP-1 RAs for obesity management has generated both optimism and concern, with significant global uptake [5] - Increased scrutiny from meta-analyses and pharmacovigilance studies suggests a possible association between GLP-1 RA use and mental health issues, although some studies found no increased risk compared to other therapies [6][7] Impact on Healthcare Providers - Clinicians are urged to monitor patients for mood changes and suicidal thoughts, especially for those with a history of mental illness [9] - The updated warnings may alter prescribing patterns, particularly for off-label use of GLP-1 RAs for weight loss [10] Industry and Investment Considerations - The TGA's alert adds a layer of reputational and regulatory risk for biotech firms and drug developers in the GLP-1 RA space, which remains attractive despite potential tightening of public and medical scrutiny [11] - While the alert may not drastically shift the global investment thesis, it could influence sentiment as companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly expand their offerings [10][12] Conclusion - The TGA's safety alert highlights the need for vigilance among patients and healthcare providers regarding the use of GLP-1 RAs, balancing the benefits of these powerful medications against emerging safety concerns [12][13]

Core Insights - Financial institutions are showing a bullish sentiment towards Eli Lilly, with 41% of traders being bullish and 32% bearish, indicating a strong interest in the stock [1] - The predicted price range for Eli Lilly over the last three months is between $730.0 and $1200.0, suggesting significant market expectations [2] - Analysts have set an average target price of $1174.2 for Eli Lilly, with various firms maintaining or upgrading their ratings [9][10] Options Activity - A total of 46 unusual trades were identified for Eli Lilly, with 41 being calls valued at $2,414,792 and 5 puts valued at $616,686, reflecting a preference for bullish positions [1] - The mean open interest for Eli Lilly options trades is 648.68, with a total volume of 1,068.00, indicating active trading [3] - Noteworthy options activity includes a mix of bullish and bearish trades, with significant volumes and varying strike prices [7] Company Overview - Eli Lilly focuses on neuroscience, cardiometabolic diseases, cancer, and immunology, with key products including Verzenio, Mounjaro, and Taltz [8] - The stock is currently trading at $1059.99, reflecting a slight increase of 0.03%, with an anticipated earnings release in 73 days [12]

Core Insights - GLP-1 medicines are experiencing significant growth in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly for weight management, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as the leading companies [1][6] - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide has rapidly become the world's best-selling drug, generating $24.8 billion in revenue in the first nine months of 2025 [2] - Eli Lilly is advancing its position with additional candidates like orforglipron and retatrutide, which could enhance its competitive edge in the GLP-1 market [4][5] Eli Lilly's Position - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, marketed as Mounjaro and Zepbound, has cannibalized sales of its previous best-seller, Trulicity, and has shown effectiveness in multiple indications [1] - The drug mimics both GLP-1 and GIP hormones, leading to superior performance in weight management compared to competitors [3] - Eli Lilly has completed phase 3 studies for orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 medicine, which could be a first in the weight management category [4] - Retatrutide, currently in phase 3 studies, mimics three hormones and may further improve treatment efficacy [5] Novo Nordisk's Challenges - Novo Nordisk, previously the market leader, has seen its global market share decline from 55.7% to 49.3% as of August [7] - The company markets semaglutide under well-known brands like Ozempic and Wegovy but is struggling to keep pace with Eli Lilly's advancements [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) is recognized as one of the best aggressive growth stocks, with a Buy rating and a price target of $960 following a government agreement to expand access to obesity medications [1][5]. Group 1: Government Agreement and Pricing - Starting April 1, 2026, Medicare beneficiaries will pay no more than $50 per month for Zepbound (tirzepatide) and orforglipron, contingent on FDA approval [2]. - The lowest dose of Zepbound will be priced at $299, with higher doses reaching up to $449, which is $50 lower than current prices [3]. - Orforglipron will start at $149 for the lowest dose, with additional doses priced up to $399 [3]. Group 2: Additional Products and Pricing Strategy - Eli Lilly will also offer Emgality (galcanezumab-gnlm), Trulicity (dulaglutide), and Mounjaro (tirzepatide) to self-pay patients at prices 50-60% lower than current list prices [4]. - The pricing deal is expected to accelerate price reductions for these medications, although the long-term impact may be modest due to potential increases in sales and patient adherence [5]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - Medicare coverage for Zepbound is viewed as a positive development for Eli Lilly, indicating potential growth in patient access and sales [5].

Group 1 - Eli Lilly's stock has surged by 21% this month due to strong third-quarter earnings and a favorable pricing deal for obesity drugs with the U.S. government [2] - The company's market capitalization has exceeded $900 billion, driven by a threefold increase in sales of its GLP-1 weight-loss products like Zepbound [3] - Despite recent successes, Eli Lilly faces challenges from increasing competition in the obesity market and potential pricing scrutiny that could impact future profit margins [3] Group 2 - Historical trends indicate that Eli Lilly's stock is not immune to significant market downturns, with past declines of approximately 43% during the Dot-Com bubble and over 50% during the Global Financial Crisis [7] - The competition for GLP-1 products is intensifying, with 16 new weight-loss medications expected by 2029, which could threaten Eli Lilly's market share [9] - Patent expirations, particularly for Trulicity, which generated $7.1 billion in sales in 2023, pose a risk to future revenue as it faces a significant decline in sales projected for 2024 [9] Group 3 - Eli Lilly's revenue growth has been impressive, with a 36.8% growth over the last twelve months and a 23.4% average growth over the last three years [10] - The company has a free cash flow margin of nearly -0.09% and an operating margin of 43.0% for the last twelve months [10] - The stock is currently trading at a P/E multiple of 64.3, indicating a high valuation relative to earnings [10]

Core Insights - Trump announced agreements with pharmaceutical giants Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to reduce the prices of their popular weight loss drugs [3][4] - Novo Nordisk plans to set the monthly price for the lowest dose of Wegovy at $149, expanding this pricing strategy to all patient-facing products [3] - Eli Lilly's lowest dose of Zepbound will start at $299, with the highest dose at $449, approximately $50 lower than current direct-to-patient prices [3] Pricing Strategies - Novo Nordisk will lower prices for its injectable drugs, including Wegovy and Ozempic, under Medicare Part D, Medicaid, and self-pay channels [3] - Eli Lilly's new oral weight loss drug, Orforglipron, will also have a minimum dose price of $149, pending federal approval [3] Market Impact - The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary stated that this initiative will significantly impact all citizens, including those without insurance, by providing equal access to GLP-1 drugs [4] - It is projected that by next year, the cumulative weight loss among Americans could reach 125 million pounds (approximately 56 million kilograms) due to increased accessibility to weight loss medications [4]

Core Points - The U.S. government has reached a price control agreement with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk for obesity medications, which will be available through the TrumpRx direct drug sales channel [1][3] - Novo Nordisk's semaglutide injection price will drop from $1,350 to an average of $350 per month, while Eli Lilly's tirzepatide injection and the pending oral drug Orforglipron will decrease from $1,086 to an average of $346 per month [3] - Medicare and Medicaid will now reimburse obesity medications for patients, allowing Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to exchange price reductions for increased volume [4] Pricing and Investment Details - Under the agreement, all doses of GLP-1 injections from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly will be priced at $245, with Medicare beneficiaries only paying $50 per month after reimbursement [4] - The GLP-1 injections will also be reduced to $245 in the TrumpRx channel over the next two years [4] - Novo Nordisk has committed to invest an additional $10 billion in the U.S., including local production of oral semaglutide once approved [4] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, Novo Nordisk's stock fell by 4%, while Eli Lilly's stock rose by 1.26% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has reached a drug price control agreement with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, allowing discounted drugs to be sold through the "TrumpRx" direct sales channel [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - Novo Nordisk's semaglutide injection price will drop from $1,350 per month to an average of $350 [7] - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide injection and the pending oral drug (Orforglipron) will decrease from $1,086 per month to an average of $346 [7] - If the FDA approves the oral version of semaglutide or other oral drugs from both companies, pricing will start at $150 per month [7] Group 2: Insurance Coverage and Financial Implications - Medicare and Medicaid will reimburse obesity medications for the first time, representing a "price for volume" trade for both companies [8] - Under U.S. insurance coverage, all doses of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly's GLP-1 injections will be priced at $245, with beneficiaries paying only $50 per month after reimbursement [9] - The GLP-1 injections will also be priced at $245 in the "TrumpRx" channel over the next two years [10] Group 3: Additional Commitments and Investments - Novo Nordisk has committed to invest an additional $10 billion in the U.S., including local production of the oral semaglutide once approved [11] - The agreement is expected to have a "low single-digit" negative impact on global sales growth in 2026 [11] - Both companies will receive a three-year grace period from tariffs on drug imports following the agreement with the White House [12]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.02, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.02 per share, and significantly up from $1.18 per share in the same quarter last year [1][9] - Revenues reached $17.60 billion, a 54% increase year over year, driven by strong sales of GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.01 billion [2][9] Revenue and Sales Performance - Mounjaro sales were $6.52 billion, up 109% year over year, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.48 billion [3] - Zepbound recorded sales of $3.59 billion, a 185% increase year over year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.45 billion [4] - Trulicity generated revenues of $1.05 billion, down 19% year over year, in line with estimates [6] - Jardiance sales rose 40% to $959 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $687 million [6] - Taltz brought in sales of $901.5 million, up 2% year over year, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate [7] - Verzenio generated sales of $1.47 billion, up 7% year over year, but also missed estimates [7] - Emgality revenues were $175.7 million, down 13% year over year, while Olumiant sales were $268.9 million, up 7% [8] Market Dynamics and Competition - Mounjaro and Zepbound are gaining market share from Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy, despite facing strong competition [5] - The company is investing in obesity treatments and has several new molecules in clinical development, including orforglipron and retatrutide [14] Guidance and Future Outlook - Lilly raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $63.0 billion to $63.5 billion, up from a previous range of $60.0 billion to $62.0 billion, and increased EPS guidance to $23.00 to $23.70 [11][13] - The company is expanding its portfolio beyond GLP-1 drugs into cardiovascular, oncology, and neuroscience areas, with recent acquisitions to enhance its pipeline [17][18] Stock Performance - Following the strong third-quarter results and guidance increase, Lilly's shares rose more than 5% in pre-market trading, with a year-to-date increase of 5.3% compared to the industry average of 3.3% [13]