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美高梅中国(02282.HK):ALPHAVILLA预计将于十一黄金周前正式开业
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-01 19:21
Core Viewpoint - MGM China reported better-than-expected performance for Q2 2025, with net revenue of HKD 8.667 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 157% of Q2 2019 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was HKD 2.511 billion, up 3% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 172% of Q2 2019 levels, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimate of HKD 2.387 billion [1] - Total gaming revenue market share increased to 16.5% in Q2 2025, up from 15.6% in Q1 2025 [1] Business Development Trends - Management observed strong performance across all business segments in July 2025, with expectations for continued strong performance during the summer [1] - The strong market share in July 2025 was attributed to the soft opening of the Alpha Villas targeting ultra-high-end customers, with a full opening expected before the Golden Week in October 2025 [1] - The company aims to maintain its current market share while focusing on product updates and strong performance in high-end mass market operations [1] Market Share and Visitor Trends - Total gaming revenue market share reached 16.6% in Q2 2025, with monthly growth in market share throughout the quarter, peaking at approximately 17% in June 2025, driven by visitor volume and high-end customer engagement [1] - All 28 villa rooms at MGM Macau opened in Q2 2025, and the company plans to maintain a dividend policy with a payout ratio of 50% [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 3% to HKD 9.888 billion and HKD 10.271 billion, respectively, due to the opening of villa products [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 7 times the 2025 EV/EBITDA, with an 18% target price increase to HKD 19.80, reflecting a 27% upside potential based on a 9 times 2025 EV/EBITDA valuation [2]
中金:升美高梅中国(02282)目标价至19.80港元 维持“跑赢行业”评级
智通财经网· 2025-08-01 02:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that MGM China (02282) is expected to see an increase in adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to HKD 9.888 billion and HKD 10.271 billion respectively, due to the opening of villa products [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a 7x EV/EBITDA for 2025, and the target price has been raised by 18% to HKD 19.80, indicating a 27% upside potential compared to the current stock price [1] - MGM China's Q2 2025 performance showed net revenue of HKD 8.667 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 157% of Q2 2019 levels [1] Group 2 - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was HKD 2.511 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6%, recovering to 172% of Q2 2019 levels, outperforming consensus expectations [1] - The strong performance is attributed to the robust results from MGM Macau and MGM Cotai, with total gaming revenue recovering to 100% and 214% of Q2 2019 levels respectively [1] - The total gaming revenue market share increased to 16.5% in Q2 2025, up from 15.6% in Q1 2025 [1] Group 3 - The management observed strong performance across all business segments in July 2025, with stable market share and profit margins, and expects continued strong performance during the summer [2] - The strong market share is primarily driven by the trial operation of the Alpha villa targeting ultra-high-end customers, which is expected to officially open before the National Day Golden Week in 2025 [2] - The total gaming revenue market share reached 16.6% in Q2 2025, with a monthly increase, and approximately 17% in June 2025, driven by visitor volume and high-end customers [2]