研究报告 Research Report 27 Feb 2026 银河娱乐 Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK) 25Q4 业绩符合预期，EBITDA 利润率及市场份额均提升 25Q4 Results Inline, with Adjusted EBITDA and GGR Market Share Improving 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$41.44 目标价 HK$47.30 HTI ESG 4.3-4.0-4.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$181.48bn / US$23.21bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$50.19mn 发行股票数目 4,379mn 自由流通股 (%) 45% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$43.90-HK$25.55 注：现价 HK$41.44 为 2026 年 02 月 26 日收盘价 资料来源： Fa ...

里昂发表研报指，银河娱乐2025财年第四季经调整EBITDA按年飙升33%至43亿港元，较该行及市场预 测高出3%；末期息增60%至0.8港元，全年派息率扩张1,100个基点至61%。该行指出，虽然贵宾厅赢率 较平常高，为银娱带来7.31亿港元EBITDA正向影响，但由于竞争压力加剧，其经调整利润率仍稳定维 持在27.2%。 该行表示，由于预期银娱的资本开支会在今年达到高峰，料派息率将可持续扩张。该行继续相信银娱在 澳门市场具备竞争力，能有效捍卫市场份额，并预计其派息有进一步上升空间。该行维持公司"跑赢大 市"评级，续予目标价49.5港元，且继续将公司视为行业首选股。 ...

Revenue Performance - MGM China reported total revenue of HKD 9.62 billion in 25Q4, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%[1] - For the full year 2025, total revenue reached HKD 34.79 billion, up 10.8% year-on-year[1] EBITDA Growth - Adjusted EBITDA for 25Q4 was HKD 2.75 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.5%[1] - The adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 28.6%, up 1.78 percentage points year-on-year[1] Gaming and Non-Gaming Contributions - Gaming revenue contributed HKD 8.46 billion, a 23.0% increase year-on-year, while non-gaming revenue was HKD 1.15 billion, up 10.9%[2] - By property, MGM Macau and MGM Cotai generated revenues of HKD 3.48 billion (+4.1% YoY) and HKD 6.14 billion (+34.1% YoY) respectively[2] Betting Trends - Total betting amount reached HKD 80.16 billion, a 9.9% increase year-on-year[3] - VIP betting increased by 5.7% to HKD 30.64 billion, while mass market betting rose by 13.2% to HKD 31.52 billion[3] Market Share and Customer Insights - MGM China's market share reached 16.5% in 25Q4, up 1.0 percentage points from 15.5% in 25Q3[5] - Management anticipates strong demand during the upcoming Chinese New Year, with robust hotel booking trends observed[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Sands China [2][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved net revenue of USD 2.058 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 16.2%. Adjusted property EBITDA reached USD 608 million, up 6.5% year-over-year, with an adjusted property EBITDA margin of 29.5% [4][12][15]. - The performance of the company's properties varied, with The Venetian and Plaza showing net revenue increases both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, while The Parisian and Sands underperformed [13][14]. - The company's gaming gross revenue increased significantly to USD 2.02 billion, up 23.1% year-over-year, driven by growth in VIP and premium mass segments [5][14]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 29.5%, down 2.7 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to a shift in business structure and rising operating costs [6][15]. - The company's market share improved to 24.4% in Q3 2025, up from 23.7% in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend in competitive positioning [7]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate net revenues of USD 7.937 billion and USD 8.363 billion for FY 2026 and FY 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 6.2% and 5.4% [16]. - Gaming gross revenue is projected to be USD 7.652 billion and USD 8.082 billion for FY 2026 and FY 2027, reflecting year-over-year growth of 6.6% and 5.6% [16]. - Adjusted property EBITDA is forecasted to reach USD 2.483 billion and USD 2.643 billion for FY 2026 and FY 2027, with corresponding margins of 31.3% and 31.6% [16].

Core Insights - Airbnb (ABNB.US) shares rose over 4% pre-market, reaching $125.80 following the release of its Q3 2025 earnings report [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately $4.1 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 10% [1] - Net profit for the same period was around $1.4 billion, remaining flat compared to the previous year [1] - Adjusted EBITDA reached approximately $2.1 billion, marking a record high, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 50% [1] Booking Metrics - Total bookings for accommodations and experiences were about 134 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9% [1] - North America accounted for approximately 30% of total bookings, while markets outside North America experienced double-digit year-over-year growth in bookings, experiences, and services [1] - Gross Booking Value (GBV) was approximately $22.9 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 14% [1]

Core Insights - Galaxy Entertainment reported a total gaming revenue of HKD 12.2 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2% [1] - The group's net revenue for Q3 2025 was HKD 12.2 billion, up 14% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Mass gaming revenue totaled HKD 9.5 billion, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase and a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - VIP gaming revenue reached HKD 2 billion, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 86%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 15% [1] - Slot machine gaming revenue amounted to HKD 738 million, with an 11% year-on-year increase and a 6% quarter-on-quarter decline [1] Financial Performance - The main revenue and profit contributor for the group was "Galaxy Macau™," which generated net revenue of HKD 10.1 billion in Q3 2025, up 20% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was HKD 3.1 billion, reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase but an 8% quarter-on-quarter decline [1] - The high win rate in the "Galaxy Macau™" gaming business contributed an additional HKD 18 million to adjusted EBITDA [1] - After normalizing the win rate, adjusted EBITDA was HKD 3.1 billion, representing an 11% year-on-year increase and a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]

Core Insights - Macquarie's report indicates that Galaxy Entertainment's Q2 net revenue increased by 10% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, with gaming revenue rising by 16% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, slightly below the firm's forecast by 1% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 12% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the firm's forecast by 2% [1] - The firm has adjusted its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment down by 0.1% and 0.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, while increasing the 2027 forecast by 0.6% [1] - The target price for the group has been raised by 4%, from HKD 53.6 to HKD 55.6, while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] Dividend and Financial Health - Galaxy Entertainment declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.7, with a payout ratio of 58%, up from 50% in the same period last year, exceeding market expectations [1] - The firm believes that due to the group's strong free cash flow and net cash accumulation capabilities, it can maintain this payout ratio [1] - The expected payout ratio for the group this year is 60%, translating to a cash dividend yield of 3.5% [1]

Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Wynn Macau reported net revenue of USD 0.883 billion, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year (YoY) and an increase of 2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) [1][8][9] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was USD 0.25 billion, down 9.5% YoY, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28.7%, a decrease of 2.95 percentage points YoY [1][4][12] - For the first half of 2025, total revenue reached USD 1.75 billion, down 7.2% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA was USD 0.51 billion, down 18.4% YoY [1][8] Gaming Revenue - Total gaming revenue in Q2 2025 was USD 0.9 billion, an increase of 2% YoY, but below the industry growth rate of 8.3% [3][11] - The total betting amount reached USD 10.28 billion in Q2 2025, up 17.4% YoY, with VIP betting increasing by 27.1% YoY [2][10] - The VIP win rate for Wynn Palace was 2.86%, lower than the expected range of 3.1% to 3.4% [2][10] Market Share and Outlook - Wynn Macau's market share in Q2 2025 was 11.9%, down 0.5 percentage points from 12.4% in Q1 2025 [5][13] - The company plans to invest USD 200-250 million in capital expenditures for property upgrades in 2025 [5] - A new entertainment center at Wynn Palace is expected to open in early 2028, pending government approval [5] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected macroeconomic growth, stricter gaming regulations in Macau, and increased competition in overseas gaming markets [6][13]

Core Viewpoint - MGM China reported better-than-expected performance for Q2 2025, with net revenue of HKD 8.667 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 157% of Q2 2019 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was HKD 2.511 billion, up 3% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 172% of Q2 2019 levels, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimate of HKD 2.387 billion [1] - Total gaming revenue market share increased to 16.5% in Q2 2025, up from 15.6% in Q1 2025 [1] Business Development Trends - Management observed strong performance across all business segments in July 2025, with expectations for continued strong performance during the summer [1] - The strong market share in July 2025 was attributed to the soft opening of the Alpha Villas targeting ultra-high-end customers, with a full opening expected before the Golden Week in October 2025 [1] - The company aims to maintain its current market share while focusing on product updates and strong performance in high-end mass market operations [1] Market Share and Visitor Trends - Total gaming revenue market share reached 16.6% in Q2 2025, with monthly growth in market share throughout the quarter, peaking at approximately 17% in June 2025, driven by visitor volume and high-end customer engagement [1] - All 28 villa rooms at MGM Macau opened in Q2 2025, and the company plans to maintain a dividend policy with a payout ratio of 50% [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 3% to HKD 9.888 billion and HKD 10.271 billion, respectively, due to the opening of villa products [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 7 times the 2025 EV/EBITDA, with an 18% target price increase to HKD 19.80, reflecting a 27% upside potential based on a 9 times 2025 EV/EBITDA valuation [2]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's research report indicates that MGM China’s Q2 gaming revenue increased by 12% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the firm's expectations by 2% [1] - Total revenue rose by 9% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with the firm's forecasts [1] - Adjusted EBITDA reached a record high of HKD 2.51 billion, surpassing the firm's expectations by 3% [1] Revenue and Market Share - The company's market share grew by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 16.6%, the highest among six operators, with management confident in maintaining a mid-double-digit market share [1] - The firm has adjusted its EBITDA forecasts for MGM China for the years 2025 to 2027, with increases of 2.2% for 2025, a decrease of 0.5% for 2026, and an increase of 0.4% for 2027 [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for MGM China has been slightly reduced from HKD 22.2 to HKD 22.1, while maintaining an "Outperform" rating [1]