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中国材料:2026 年实地需求监测-铝库存与消费-China Materials_ 2026 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #20 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption
2026-02-11 15:40
Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (Feb 2026) Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminum - **Focus**: Tracking and analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends in China, particularly aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and consumption data for the week of January 29 to February 4, 2026 [1] Key Points Production Data - **Total Aluminum Production**: 859,000 tons (kt), unchanged week-over-week (WoW), +3% year-over-year (YoY), and +3% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - **Aluminum Billet Production**: 301,000 kt, -4% WoW, +13% YoY, and -10% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Production**: - Total aluminum: 5.1 million tons (mnt), +2.9% YoY - Aluminum billets: 2.0 mnt, +8.3% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - **Total Aluminum Inventory**: 1,376 kt as of February 5, 2026, +8% WoW, -19% YoY, and +78% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - **Social Inventory**: 1,130 kt, +7% WoW, +8% YoY, +87% YoY on lunar calendar - **Producers' Inventory**: 246 kt, +11% WoW, -67% YoY, +45% YoY on lunar calendar - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: 939 kt, +7% WoW, +4% YoY, +86% YoY on lunar calendar [3] - **Aluminum Billet Inventory**: 437 kt, +11% WoW, -45% YoY, +62% YoY on lunar calendar [3] Apparent Consumption - **Overall Aluminum Apparent Consumption**: 797 kt, flat WoW, +84% YoY, and -6% YoY on lunar calendar [4] - **Aluminum Ingot Consumption**: 851 kt, -1% WoW, +28% YoY, -5% YoY on lunar calendar - **Aluminum Billet Consumption**: 246 kt, -3% WoW, +638% YoY, -13% YoY on lunar calendar - **YTD Apparent Consumption**: - Overall: 4.8 mnt, +14.8% YoY - Aluminum ingot: +5.1% YoY - Aluminum billet: +45.3% YoY [4] Market Sentiment and Analysis - **Market Expectation**: Cautious outlook on demand recovery in the aluminum sector [1] - **Inventory Data Significance**: The aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is deemed more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand due to its inclusivity of various inventory types [5] - **Comparative Analysis**: Total aluminum apparent consumption decreased WoW but remains higher than the same period in 2022-23, while lower than 2024-25 on the lunar calendar [7] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels as a key indicator of market demand and potential price movements in the aluminum sector [5]
中国材料行业_2026 实地需求监测- 铝库存与消费-China Materials_ 2026 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #16 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption
2026-02-03 02:06
Summary of Aluminum Industry Research Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of January 22 to January 28, 2026 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 859,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 3% year-over-year (YoY) and 3% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Aluminum billet production was 314,000 kt, showing a decrease of 5% WoW, an increase of 15% YoY, and a decrease of 8% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 4.3 million tons (mnt), up 2.9% YoY, while aluminum billet production was 1.7 mnt, up 7.6% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory stood at 1,274 kt on January 29, 2026, reflecting a 6% increase WoW, a 2% increase YoY, and a 64% increase YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - Social and producers' inventory comprised 1,053 kt and 222 kt respectively, with social inventory up 6% WoW and 44% YoY, while producers' inventory increased by 9% WoW but decreased by 58% YoY [3] - For aluminum ingot, total inventory was 881 kt (+4% WoW, +28% YoY, +66% YoY on lunar calendar), and for aluminum billet, total inventory was 393 kt (+11% WoW, -31% YoY, +60% YoY on lunar calendar) [3] Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption in China was 798 kt during the week, down 5% WoW but up 53% YoY, and down 5% YoY on the lunar calendar [4] - Apparent consumption for aluminum ingot was 850 kt (-2% WoW, +18% YoY) and for aluminum billet was 262 kt (-13% WoW, +243% YoY) [4] - YTD overall aluminum apparent consumption was 4.0 mnt, up 6.4% YoY, with aluminum ingot and billet apparent consumption increasing by 0.2% and 31.4% YoY respectively [4] Market Sentiment and Analysis - The report indicates that the aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand due to the inclusion of various types of aluminum inventory [5] - Total aluminum inventory increased WoW, and the inventory level was higher than the same period in 2022-2025 on the lunar calendar [5] - Apparent consumption levels were higher than the same period in 2023 but lower than in 2024-2025 on the lunar calendar [7] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector [1] - The aluminum sector is currently ranked highest in the sector pecking order, followed by copper, battery materials, gold, coal, cement, and steel [1] This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the research report on the aluminum industry in China, highlighting production, inventory, and consumption trends along with market sentiment.
中国材料_2026 实地需求监测-铝库存与消费-China Materials_ 2026 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #8 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption
2026-01-20 01:50
Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (January 2026) Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminum - **Focus**: Tracking and analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends in China for aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and consumption during the week of January 8–14, 2026 [1] Key Points Production Data - **Total Aluminum Production**: 857,000 tons (kt), flat week-over-week (WoW), +3% year-over-year (YoY), and +3% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - **Aluminum Billet Production**: 344,000 kt, -3% WoW, +6% YoY, flat YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Production**: - Total aluminum production: 2.6 million tons (mnt), +2.8% YoY - Aluminum billet production: 1.1 mnt, +5.4% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - **Total Aluminum Inventory**: 1,172 kt on January 15, 2026, +7% WoW and +51% YoY - **Social Inventory**: 963 kt, +7% WoW, +59% YoY - **Producer Inventory**: 210 kt, +8% WoW, +24% YoY - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: 837 kt, +5% WoW, +66% YoY - **Aluminum Billet Inventory**: 335 kt, +12% WoW, +25% YoY [3] Apparent Consumption - **Overall Aluminum Apparent Consumption**: 794 kt, +8% WoW, -7% YoY - **Aluminum Ingot Consumption**: 843 kt, +5% WoW, -6% YoY - **Aluminum Billet Consumption**: 295 kt, +2% WoW, +4% YoY - **YTD Apparent Consumption**: - Overall: 2.3 mnt, -7.2% YoY - Aluminum ingot: -6.1% YoY - Aluminum billet: +3.5% YoY [4] Takeaways - The aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is deemed more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand due to its inclusion of various types of aluminum inventory. - Total aluminum inventory increased WoW, higher than the same period in 2022 and 2024-25, but lower than in 2023. - Apparent consumption increased WoW, higher than the same period in 2022-23 but lower than in 2024-25 [5] Additional Insights - Market expectations on demand recovery remain cautious, indicating a potential risk for future investments in the aluminum sector [1] - The data reflects a mixed outlook for the aluminum industry, with production and inventory levels showing growth, while apparent consumption presents a decline YoY [4][5] This summary encapsulates the key findings from the aluminum inventory and consumption report, providing insights into production, inventory, and consumption trends within the Chinese aluminum market.
中国材料行业-2025 实地需求监测:铝库存与消费-China Materials_ 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #181 - Aluminum Inventory and Consumption
2025-12-22 14:29
Summary of Aluminum Industry Research Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels from December 11 to December 17, 2025. The overall market expectation for demand recovery remains cautious [1]. Key Data Points Production - Total aluminum production in China was 857,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but showing a 3% increase year-over-year (YoY). Aluminum billet production was 362 kt, also flat WoW, with a 6% YoY increase [2]. - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 43.1 million tons (mnt), up 2.8% YoY, while aluminum billet production totaled 17.6 mnt, up 6.1% YoY [2]. Inventory - As of December 18, 2025, total aluminum ingot and billet inventory was 844 kt, down 1% WoW but up 9% YoY. The inventory included 691 kt from social sources and 154 kt from producers, with respective changes of -2% and +8% WoW [3]. - Total aluminum ingot inventory was 614 kt, down 3% WoW and up 6% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 230 kt, up 7% WoW and 18% YoY [3]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption in China was 894 kt during the week, down 2% WoW and 1% YoY. The apparent consumption of aluminum ingot and billet was 925 kt and 331 kt, respectively [4]. - YTD apparent consumption reached 44.4 mnt, reflecting a 4.1% YoY increase [4]. Core Insights - The report suggests that aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is more representative of overall aluminum demand, as it captures a broader range of inventory types. The total aluminum inventory decreased WoW, indicating a tighter supply compared to the same period in 2021, although it remains higher than in 2022-2024 [5]. - Apparent consumption levels were lower than in 2023 but higher than in 2022 and 2024 on the lunar calendar [7]. Investment Recommendations - Top picks in the aluminum sector include Hongqiao, Chalco H/A, Zijin Mining H/A, and CATL-A, reflecting a preference for companies with strong fundamentals and market positioning [1]. Risks - Key risks identified for the aluminum sector include: 1. Lower-than-expected aluminum and alumina prices [18][20]. 2. Higher-than-expected operational costs [18][20]. 3. Potential impairment losses [18][20]. 4. Changes in government policies regarding supply cuts if prices rise excessively [18][20]. Company Valuations - **Chalco A-share**: Target price set at RMB 14.77 per share, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.93x for 2026E, reflecting expected higher aluminum margins due to decreasing raw material costs [17]. - **Chalco H-share**: Target price of HK$ 12.41 per share, based on a PB ratio of 2.28x for 2026E [19]. - **CATL**: Valued at RMB 571 per share, based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.3x for 2026E [21]. - **China Hongqiao**: Target price of HK$ 36.00 per share, based on a PE ratio of 11.4x for 2026E [22]. - **Zijin Mining**: Target price of RMB 35.5 per share, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation [25]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry in China is experiencing cautious demand recovery, with production and consumption trends indicating a complex market environment. Investment opportunities exist, particularly in companies with strong fundamentals, but potential risks must be carefully monitored.
中国材料:2025 实地需求监测-铝库存与消费情况
2025-12-16 03:27
Summary of Aluminum Industry Research Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels from December 4 to December 10, 2025 [1][2][4]. Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 856,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but showing a 3% increase year-over-year (YoY) [2]. - Aluminum billet production was 361kt, also flat WoW, with a 7% increase YoY [2]. - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 42.2 million tons (mnt), up 2.8% YoY, while aluminum billet production totaled 17.3mnt, up 6.1% YoY [2]. Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory was 850kt as of December 11, 2025, a decrease of 3% WoW but an increase of 3% YoY [3]. - Social and producers' inventory levels were 708kt and 143kt, respectively, with social inventory down 3% WoW and producers' inventory down 6% WoW [3]. - For aluminum ingots, inventory was 635kt (-3% WoW, +4% YoY), and for aluminum billets, it was 215kt (-5% WoW, +1% YoY) [3]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 916kt during the week, a 2% increase WoW and a 5% increase YoY [4]. - Apparent consumption for aluminum ingots was 921kt (+2% WoW, +5% YoY) and for aluminum billets was 356kt (flat WoW, +6% YoY) [4]. - YTD apparent consumption reached 43.5mnt, up 4.2% YoY [4]. Market Sentiment - Market expectations for demand recovery in the aluminum sector remain cautious, with a pecking order of demand indicating aluminum is prioritized over other materials like copper and coal [1]. - Top picks in the sector include Hongqiao, Chalco H/A, Zijin Mining H/A, and CATL-A [1]. Valuation Insights Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - Target price for Chalco H-share is HK$12.41, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.28x for 2026E, reflecting stronger-than-average return on equity (ROE) due to higher aluminum margins [15]. - Target price for Chalco A-share is Rmb14.77, based on a PB ratio of 2.93x for 2026E [17]. Risks - Key risks affecting stock prices include lower-than-expected aluminum prices, higher costs, and potential government policy changes regarding supply cuts [16][18]. Other Companies - CATL's target price is Rmb571/share, based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.3x for 2026E [19]. - Hongqiao's target price is HK$36.00/share, based on a PE ratio of 11.4x for 2026E [20]. - Zijin Mining's target price is Rmb35.5/share, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation [23]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry in China is experiencing cautious demand recovery, with production and consumption showing positive trends. However, potential risks remain that could impact stock valuations and market dynamics. Key players in the industry are positioned for growth, but external factors such as pricing and government policies will play a significant role in their performance moving forward.
中国材料行业-2025 实地需求监测:铝库存与消费情况-China Materials_ 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #169 - Aluminum Inventory and Consumption
2025-12-02 06:57
Summary of Aluminum Industry Research Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels from November 20 to November 26, 2025. The overall market expectation for demand recovery remains cautious [1]. Key Data Points Production - Total aluminum production in China was 856,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but showing a 3% increase year-over-year (YoY). Aluminum billet production was 363 kt, also flat WoW, with an 8% increase YoY [2]. Inventory - As of November 27, 2025, total aluminum ingot and billet inventory was 887 kt, a decrease of 3% WoW but an increase of 3% YoY. The breakdown includes: - Social inventory: 734 kt, down 4% WoW, up 9% YoY - Producers' inventory: 153 kt, up 4% WoW, down 17% YoY - For aluminum ingot, inventory was 652 kt (down 3% WoW, up 6% YoY), and for aluminum billet, it was 235 kt (down 2% WoW, down 2% YoY) [3]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 911 kt, up 2% WoW and 11% YoY. Specific consumption figures include: - Aluminum ingot: 928 kt, up 2% WoW, 11% YoY - Aluminum billet: 345 kt, down 1% WoW, up 8% YoY - Year-to-date apparent consumption for aluminum was 41.8 million tons (mnt), reflecting a 4.5% increase YoY [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand, as it encompasses a broader range of inventory types. The total aluminum inventory decreased WoW, indicating a tighter supply compared to the same period in 2021, although it remains higher than in 2022-2024 on a lunar calendar basis [5]. Investment Recommendations - Top picks in the aluminum sector include: - Hongqiao - Chalco H/A - Zijin Mining H/A - CATL-A [1]. Additional Notes - The report indicates that the apparent consumption level is higher than the same period in 2022-2024 on a lunar calendar basis, suggesting a potential recovery in demand [7]. Companies Mentioned - Aluminum Corporation of China (2600.HK; 601600.SS) - CATL (300750.SZ) - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) - Zijin Mining (2899.HK; 601899.SS) [16]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the aluminum industry research report, providing a comprehensive overview of production, inventory, consumption, and investment opportunities within the sector.
中国材料_2025 年实地需求监测— 铝库存与消费-China Materials_ 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #161 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption
2025-11-10 03:34
Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (Nov 2025) Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminum - **Region**: China - **Report Date**: November 6, 2025 - **Source**: Citi Research, Mysteel Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China for the week of October 30 to November 5, 2025, was **854,000 tons (kt)**, remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but showing a **3% increase year-over-year (YoY)** and a **2% increase YoY on the lunar calendar [2]** - Aluminum billet production was **358,000 tons (kt)**, also flat WoW, with a **7% increase YoY** and a **6% increase YoY on the lunar calendar [2]** - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production for the calendar year reached **37.9 million tons (mnt)**, reflecting a **2.8% increase YoY**, while aluminum billet production totaled **15.5 million tons (mnt)**, up **6.0% YoY [2]** Inventory Levels - As of November 6, 2025, total aluminum ingot and billet inventory in China was **915,000 tons (kt)**, flat WoW, with a **4% increase YoY** and a **5% increase YoY on the lunar calendar [3]** - Breakdown of inventory: - Social inventory: **759,000 tons (kt)**, flat WoW, **10% increase YoY** - Producers' inventory: **156,000 tons (kt)**, up **2% WoW**, but down **17% YoY [3]** - Total aluminum ingot inventory was **666,000 tons (kt)**, up **1% WoW** and **6% YoY**, while aluminum billet inventory was **249,000 tons (kt)**, flat WoW and down **3% YoY [3]** Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption for the week was **881,000 tons (kt)**, down **5% WoW**, flat YoY, but up **4% YoY on the lunar calendar [4]** - Specific consumption figures: - Aluminum ingot: **903,000 tons (kt)**, down **2% WoW**, flat YoY - Aluminum billet: **336,000 tons (kt)**, down **7% WoW**, but up **9% YoY [4]** - YTD overall aluminum apparent consumption reached **39.1 million tons (mnt)**, reflecting a **4.5% increase YoY [4]** Market Sentiment and Analysis - The aluminum inventory data is considered more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand as it encompasses various types of aluminum inventory [5] - The current inventory level is lower than the same period in 2021 but higher than the levels observed in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [5] - Apparent consumption levels have decreased WoW but are higher than the same period in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [7] Additional Insights - The report indicates a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector, with a pecking order of demand across various materials: copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel > lithium > thermal coal [1]
中国材料行业:2025 年实地需求监测-铝库存与消费情况-China Materials_ 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #149 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption
2025-10-19 15:58
Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (Week of 9th to 15th Oct 2025) Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminum - **Focus**: Tracking and analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends in China, particularly in aluminum production, inventory, and consumption [1] Key Points Production Data - **Total Aluminum Production**: 853kt, unchanged week-over-week (WoW), +3% year-over-year (YoY), and +2% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - **Aluminum Billet Production**: 361kt, +1% WoW, +7% YoY, and +7% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Production**: - Total aluminum production: 35.4 million tonnes (mnt), +2.9% YoY - Aluminum billet production: 14.4 mnt, +5.9% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - **Total Aluminum Inventory**: 976kt as of 16th Oct, -3% WoW, +1% YoY, and +6% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - **Social Inventory**: 776kt, -2% WoW, -1% YoY, +4% YoY on the lunar calendar - **Producers' Inventory**: 200kt, -10% WoW, +10% YoY, +12% YoY on the lunar calendar - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: 684kt, -3% WoW, -1% YoY, +3% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - **Aluminum Billet Inventory**: 292kt, -3% WoW, +8% YoY, +14% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] Apparent Consumption - **Overall Aluminum Apparent Consumption**: 917kt, +22% WoW, +6% YoY, +3% YoY on the lunar calendar [4] - **Aluminum Ingot Consumption**: 923kt, +10% WoW, +3% YoY, +3% YoY on the lunar calendar - **Aluminum Billet Consumption**: 355kt, +30% WoW, +15% YoY, +7% YoY on the lunar calendar - **YTD Apparent Consumption**: - Overall: 36.3 mnt, +4.1% YoY - Ingot: +3.5% YoY - Billet: +7.7% YoY [4] Takeaways - The aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is deemed more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand due to its inclusion of various inventory types [5] - Total aluminum inventory decreased WoW, indicating a tighter supply compared to the same period in 2021, but higher than 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [5] - Apparent consumption levels increased WoW and are higher than the same period in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [7] Additional Insights - The current sector pecking order in terms of demand recovery is copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel > lithium > thermal coal [1]
中国材料行业_2025 年实地需求监测- 铝库存与消费-China Materials_ 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #141 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption
2025-09-23 02:34
Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (September 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of September 11-17, 2025 [1][4]. Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 852,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 3% year-over-year (YoY) [2]. - Aluminum billet production was 361kt, also flat WoW, with a 6% increase YoY [2]. - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 32.0 million tons (mnt), up 2.9% YoY, while aluminum billet production totaled 12.9mnt, up 5.7% YoY [2]. Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory stood at 927kt on September 18, 2025, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a 5% decrease YoY [3]. - Social inventory was 780kt, up 3% WoW, while producers' inventory was 148kt, down 4% WoW [3]. - For aluminum ingots, inventory was 701kt, up 2% WoW and down 8% YoY; for aluminum billets, inventory was 226kt, down 1% WoW and up 5% YoY [3]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 873kt during the week, down 2% WoW but up 6% YoY [4]. - Apparent consumption for aluminum ingots was 892kt, down 2% WoW, while for billets it was 342kt, down 1% WoW [4]. - YTD apparent consumption reached 32.9mnt, up 4.7% YoY, with ingots and billets showing increases of 4.1% and 7.6% YoY, respectively [4]. Market Sentiment - The market expectation for demand recovery in the aluminum sector remains cautious, with the latest sector ranking being copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel > lithium > thermal coal [1]. Additional Insights - The increase in total aluminum inventory during the week indicates a potential shift in demand dynamics, as inventory levels are lower than the same period in 2021-22 and 2024 but higher than in 2023 [5]. - Apparent consumption levels are higher than the same period in 2022-23 but lower than in 2024, suggesting fluctuating demand patterns [8]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry in China is experiencing stable production levels with a cautious outlook on demand recovery. Inventory levels are being closely monitored, and apparent consumption trends indicate a mixed performance compared to previous years.
中国材料_2025 年实地需求监测- 铝库存与消费-China Materials_ 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #137
2025-09-15 13:17
Summary of Aluminum Industry Research Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels from September 4th to 10th, 2025. Market expectations for demand recovery are described as cautious [1] Key Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 851,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 2% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Aluminum billet production was 361kt, also flat WoW, with a 6% increase YoY [2] - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 31.1 million tons (mnt), up 2.9% YoY, while aluminum billet production totaled 12.6mnt, up 5.7% YoY [2] Inventory Insights - As of September 11, 2025, total aluminum ingot and billet inventory was 914kt, down 1% WoW and 5% YoY [3] - Social inventory was 759kt, down 1% WoW and 11% YoY, while producers' inventory was 155kt, down 2% WoW but up 43% YoY [3] - For aluminum ingots, total inventory was 686kt, down 1% WoW and 11% YoY, while aluminum billets had an inventory of 228kt, down 2% WoW but up 21% YoY [3] Apparent Consumption Trends - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 895kt during the week, up 3% WoW but down 1% YoY [4] - Apparent consumption of aluminum ingots was 911kt, up 2% WoW but down 2% YoY, while aluminum billets saw consumption of 345kt, up 3% WoW and up 8% YoY [4] - YTD apparent consumption reached 32.1mnt, up 4.6% YoY, with aluminum ingots and billets showing increases of 4.1% and 7.3% YoY, respectively [4] Key Takeaways - The report emphasizes that aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand [5] - Total aluminum inventory decreased WoW, with levels lower than the same period in 2021-22 and 2024, but higher than in 2023 on a lunar calendar basis [5] - Apparent consumption levels were higher than the same period in 2022-24 on a lunar calendar [7] Conclusion - The aluminum industry in China is experiencing cautious demand recovery, with production and consumption showing modest growth. Inventory levels are fluctuating, indicating a complex market environment that requires close monitoring for potential investment opportunities and risks.