Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (September 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of September 11-17, 2025 [1][4]. Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 852,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 3% year-over-year (YoY) [2]. - Aluminum billet production was 361kt, also flat WoW, with a 6% increase YoY [2]. - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 32.0 million tons (mnt), up 2.9% YoY, while aluminum billet production totaled 12.9mnt, up 5.7% YoY [2]. Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory stood at 927kt on September 18, 2025, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a 5% decrease YoY [3]. - Social inventory was 780kt, up 3% WoW, while producers' inventory was 148kt, down 4% WoW [3]. - For aluminum ingots, inventory was 701kt, up 2% WoW and down 8% YoY; for aluminum billets, inventory was 226kt, down 1% WoW and up 5% YoY [3]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 873kt during the week, down 2% WoW but up 6% YoY [4]. - Apparent consumption for aluminum ingots was 892kt, down 2% WoW, while for billets it was 342kt, down 1% WoW [4]. - YTD apparent consumption reached 32.9mnt, up 4.7% YoY, with ingots and billets showing increases of 4.1% and 7.6% YoY, respectively [4]. Market Sentiment - The market expectation for demand recovery in the aluminum sector remains cautious, with the latest sector ranking being copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel > lithium > thermal coal [1]. Additional Insights - The increase in total aluminum inventory during the week indicates a potential shift in demand dynamics, as inventory levels are lower than the same period in 2021-22 and 2024 but higher than in 2023 [5]. - Apparent consumption levels are higher than the same period in 2022-23 but lower than in 2024, suggesting fluctuating demand patterns [8]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry in China is experiencing stable production levels with a cautious outlook on demand recovery. Inventory levels are being closely monitored, and apparent consumption trends indicate a mixed performance compared to previous years.

Summary of Aluminum Industry Research Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels from September 4th to 10th, 2025. Market expectations for demand recovery are described as cautious [1] Key Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 851,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 2% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Aluminum billet production was 361kt, also flat WoW, with a 6% increase YoY [2] - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 31.1 million tons (mnt), up 2.9% YoY, while aluminum billet production totaled 12.6mnt, up 5.7% YoY [2] Inventory Insights - As of September 11, 2025, total aluminum ingot and billet inventory was 914kt, down 1% WoW and 5% YoY [3] - Social inventory was 759kt, down 1% WoW and 11% YoY, while producers' inventory was 155kt, down 2% WoW but up 43% YoY [3] - For aluminum ingots, total inventory was 686kt, down 1% WoW and 11% YoY, while aluminum billets had an inventory of 228kt, down 2% WoW but up 21% YoY [3] Apparent Consumption Trends - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 895kt during the week, up 3% WoW but down 1% YoY [4] - Apparent consumption of aluminum ingots was 911kt, up 2% WoW but down 2% YoY, while aluminum billets saw consumption of 345kt, up 3% WoW and up 8% YoY [4] - YTD apparent consumption reached 32.1mnt, up 4.6% YoY, with aluminum ingots and billets showing increases of 4.1% and 7.3% YoY, respectively [4] Key Takeaways - The report emphasizes that aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand [5] - Total aluminum inventory decreased WoW, with levels lower than the same period in 2021-22 and 2024, but higher than in 2023 on a lunar calendar basis [5] - Apparent consumption levels were higher than the same period in 2022-24 on a lunar calendar [7] Conclusion - The aluminum industry in China is experiencing cautious demand recovery, with production and consumption showing modest growth. Inventory levels are fluctuating, indicating a complex market environment that requires close monitoring for potential investment opportunities and risks.

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (August 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of August 21 to August 27, 2025 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 849,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 2% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Aluminum billet production reached 354 kt, marking a 2% increase WoW, 3% YoY, and 4% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production for the calendar year was 29.4 million tons (mnt), up 2.9% YoY, while aluminum billet production was 11.9 mnt, up 5.7% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory stood at 911 kt on August 28, 2025, reflecting a 3% increase WoW but a 13% decrease YoY [3] - Breakdown of inventory: - Social inventory: 753 kt (+5% WoW, -19% YoY) - Producers' inventory: 158 kt (-5% WoW, +36% YoY) [3] - Specific inventory levels: - Aluminum ingot inventory: 681 kt (+4% WoW, -21% YoY) - Aluminum billet inventory: 230 kt (+1% WoW, +25% YoY) [3] Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 868 kt, down 5% WoW but up 3% YoY [4] - Breakdown of apparent consumption: - Aluminum ingot: 886 kt (-3% WoW, +3% YoY) - Aluminum billet: 336 kt (-4% WoW, +3% YoY) [4] - YTD apparent consumption for the calendar year was 30.3 mnt, reflecting a 5.0% increase YoY [4] Market Insights - The aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is considered more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand due to its inclusivity of various inventory types [5] - The total aluminum inventory increased WoW, but levels were lower compared to the same period in 2021-2022 and 2024, while being higher than in 2023 on the lunar calendar [5] - Apparent consumption decreased WoW but was higher than the same period in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [7] Additional Observations - The report indicates a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector, with a pecking order of demand being aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement [1] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the report on the aluminum industry in China for the specified week, highlighting production, inventory, and consumption trends.

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (August 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of August 14-20, 2025 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 848,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 2% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Aluminum billet production reached 348 kt, showing a 1% increase WoW and a 3% increase YoY [2] - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production for 2025 was 28.6 million tons (mnt), up 2.9% YoY, while aluminum billet production was 11.5 mnt, up 5.8% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory was 883 kt as of August 21, 2025, a decrease of 2% WoW and 15% YoY [3] - Breakdown of inventory: - Social inventory: 717 kt, down 1% WoW and 22% YoY - Producers' inventory: 167 kt, down 5% WoW but up 30% YoY [3] - Specific inventory levels: - Aluminum ingot inventory: 655 kt, flat WoW and down 23% YoY - Aluminum billet inventory: 228 kt, down 7% WoW but up 20% YoY [3] Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 898 kt during the week, an increase of 3% WoW and 2% YoY [4] - Breakdown of apparent consumption: - Aluminum ingot: 897 kt, up 2% WoW and 1% YoY - Aluminum billet: 349 kt, up 5% WoW and 4% YoY [4] - YTD apparent consumption for 2025 was 29.4 mnt, reflecting a 4.8% increase YoY [4] Market Insights - The report suggests that the aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand, as it encompasses a broader range of inventory types [5] - The total aluminum inventory decreased WoW and was lower than the same period in 2021-2022 and 2024, but higher than in 2023 on a lunar calendar basis [5] - Apparent consumption levels were higher than the same period in 2022-2024 on a lunar calendar [7] Additional Insights - The aluminum sector is currently ranked highest in demand compared to other materials such as steel, copper, and thermal coal, indicating a strong market position [1] - The cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery is noted, suggesting potential volatility in future demand trends [1] This summary encapsulates the key findings from the report on aluminum inventory and consumption in China, highlighting production, inventory levels, apparent consumption, and market insights.

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (14 Aug 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, analyzing high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of 7th to 13th August 2025 [1][2]. Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 848,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 2% year-over-year (YoY) [2]. - Aluminum billet production reached 343 kt, showing a 1% increase WoW and a 2% increase YoY [2]. - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production for the calendar year was 27.7 million tons (mnt), up 3.0% YoY, while aluminum billet production was 11.2 mnt, up 5.9% YoY [2]. Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory was 899 kt as of 14th August, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a 17% decrease YoY [3]. - Breakdown of inventory: - Social inventory: 723 kt (+3% WoW, -23% YoY) - Producers' inventory: 176 kt (-5% WoW, +17% YoY) [3]. - Specific inventory levels: - Aluminum ingot inventory: 653 kt (+3% WoW, -26% YoY) - Aluminum billet inventory: 246 kt (-3% WoW, +17% YoY) [3]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 873 kt during the week, flat WoW and YoY [4]. - Breakdown of apparent consumption: - Aluminum ingot: 883 kt (flat WoW, +1% YoY) - Aluminum billet: 334 kt (flat WoW, +1% YoY) [4]. - YTD apparent consumption for the calendar year was 28.5 mnt, up 4.9% YoY [4]. Market Sentiment and Trends - The aluminum inventory data is considered more representative for calculating overall demand as it includes various types of aluminum inventory [5]. - Total aluminum inventory increased WoW, with levels lower than the same period in 2021-22 and 2024, but higher than in 2023 on the lunar calendar [5]. - Apparent consumption levels were higher than the same period in 2022-23 but lower than in 2024 on the lunar calendar [8]. Additional Insights - The report indicates a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector, with aluminum being prioritized over other materials such as steel and copper in the current market pecking order [1]. - The data is sourced from Mysteel, a consultancy specializing in market analysis [1][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the report on aluminum inventory and consumption trends in China as of mid-August 2025, highlighting production, inventory, and consumption metrics along with market sentiment.

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of July 31 to August 6, 2025 [1][2]. Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 846,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 2% year-over-year (YoY) [1]. - Aluminum billet production was 338 kt, showing a decrease of 1% WoW but an increase of 1% YoY [1]. - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 26.9 million tons (mnt), up 3.0% YoY, while aluminum billet production was 10.8 mnt, up 6.0% YoY [1]. Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory stood at 889 kt on August 7, 2025, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a 20% decrease YoY [1]. - Breakdown of inventory: - Social inventory: 704 kt (+3% WoW, -26% YoY) - Producers' inventory: 185 kt (-8% WoW, +9% YoY) [1]. - For aluminum ingots, total inventory was 637 kt (+3% WoW, -28% YoY) and for aluminum billets, it was 252 kt (-4% WoW, +10% YoY) [1]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 874 kt, increasing by 6% WoW and 2% YoY [2]. - Specific consumption figures: - Aluminum ingot consumption: 881 kt (+5% WoW, +2% YoY) - Aluminum billet consumption: 332 kt (+1% WoW, +1% YoY) [2]. - YTD apparent consumption reached 27.6 mnt, up 5.0% YoY [2]. Market Sentiment - The market expectation for demand recovery in the aluminum sector remains cautious, despite the increase in apparent consumption [1][2]. - The report suggests that the inventory data for aluminum ingots and billets is more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand [3]. Comparative Analysis - The current inventory levels are lower than those recorded during the same period in 2021-2022 and 2024, but higher than in 2023 on the lunar calendar [3]. - Apparent consumption levels are higher than the same period in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [5]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels as a key indicator of market demand and potential price movements in the aluminum sector [3]. - The aluminum sector is currently ranked highest in demand compared to other materials such as steel, copper, and thermal coal [1]. This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the report on the aluminum industry in China, highlighting production, inventory, and consumption trends.

Investment Rating - The latest sector pecking order for investment is aluminum > lithium > copper > steel > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1] Core Insights - Market expectations on demand recovery for aluminum in China remain cautious, with production data showing a flat week-over-week (WoW) performance but a 2% year-over-year (YoY) increase [1] - Total aluminum production in China for the week of June 26 to July 2, 2025, was 844kt, with aluminum billet production at 349kt, reflecting a 2% decrease WoW but an 8% increase YoY [1][2] - The year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production in China reached 22.6 million tonnes (mnt), marking a 3.2% increase YoY, while aluminum billet production was 9.1mnt, up 6.4% YoY [1] Production Summary - Total aluminum production in China was 844kt for the week, flat WoW, and up 2% YoY [1] - Aluminum billet production was 349kt, down 2% WoW, but up 8% YoY [1] - YTD aluminum production was 22.6mnt, with a 3.2% YoY increase [1] Inventory Summary - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory in China was 773kt on July 3, 2025, reflecting a 3% increase WoW but a 33% decrease YoY [2] - The inventory of aluminum ingot was 517kt, up 2% WoW and down 41% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 256kt, up 5% WoW and down 8% YoY [2] Consumption Summary - Overall aluminum apparent consumption in China was 833kt for the week, flat WoW and down 1% YoY [3] - Aluminum ingot apparent consumption was 864kt, flat WoW, and up 4% YoY, while aluminum billet apparent consumption was 318kt, down 2% WoW and down 4% YoY [3] - YTD overall aluminum apparent consumption was 23.3mnt, with a 5.7% YoY increase [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb9.62 per share based on a 2.22x 2025E P/B [18] - The investment rating for Baoshan Iron & Steel is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb8.2 per share based on a 0.85x 2025E P/B [22] - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium is "Hold" with a target price of HK$23.0 for H-shares and Rmb26.26 for A-shares [24][27] Core Insights - The report indicates cautious market expectations regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector in China, with a near-term pecking order of steel > aluminum > lithium > copper > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1] - Total aluminum production in China for the week of June 12-18, 2025, was 845kt, flat week-over-week (WoW), and up 3% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Total aluminum inventory in China stood at 722kt on June 19, 2025, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a significant 38% decrease YoY [3] - Apparent aluminum consumption in China was 849kt during the same week, down 6% WoW but up 5.8% YoY for the year-to-date [4] Production Summary - China's total aluminum production year-to-date reached 20.9 million tonnes (mnt), representing a 3.2% increase YoY, while aluminum billet production was 8.4mnt, up 6.2% YoY [2] - Aluminum billet production for the week was 365kt, flat WoW, and up 9% YoY [2] Inventory Summary - The total inventory of aluminum ingots was 493kt, down 3% WoW and 40% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 229kt, up 9% WoW but down 30% YoY [3] - The inventory levels are lower than the same period in 2021-2024 on a lunar calendar basis [7] Consumption Summary - Apparent consumption of aluminum ingots was 885kt, down 3% WoW but up 1% YoY, while aluminum billet apparent consumption was 329kt, down 7% WoW but up 3% YoY [4] - Year-to-date apparent consumption of aluminum in China reached 21.6mnt, reflecting a 5.8% increase YoY [4]