CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China – market expectation on demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Mysteel, a consultant, on China aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and apparent consumption data during the week of 21st to 27th Aug 2025. Latest sector pecking order: aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement. Production – According to Mys ...

Flash | 21 Aug 2025 13:07:25 ET │ 10 pages China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #125 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China – market expectation on demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Mysteel, a consultant, on China aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and apparent consumption data during the week of 14th to 20th August 2 ...

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (14 Aug 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, analyzing high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of 7th to 13th August 2025 [1][2]. Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 848,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 2% year-over-year (YoY) [2]. - Aluminum billet production reached 343 kt, showing a 1% increase WoW and a 2% increase YoY [2]. - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production for the calendar year was 27.7 million tons (mnt), up 3.0% YoY, while aluminum billet production was 11.2 mnt, up 5.9% YoY [2]. Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory was 899 kt as of 14th August, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a 17% decrease YoY [3]. - Breakdown of inventory: - Social inventory: 723 kt (+3% WoW, -23% YoY) - Producers' inventory: 176 kt (-5% WoW, +17% YoY) [3]. - Specific inventory levels: - Aluminum ingot inventory: 653 kt (+3% WoW, -26% YoY) - Aluminum billet inventory: 246 kt (-3% WoW, +17% YoY) [3]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 873 kt during the week, flat WoW and YoY [4]. - Breakdown of apparent consumption: - Aluminum ingot: 883 kt (flat WoW, +1% YoY) - Aluminum billet: 334 kt (flat WoW, +1% YoY) [4]. - YTD apparent consumption for the calendar year was 28.5 mnt, up 4.9% YoY [4]. Market Sentiment and Trends - The aluminum inventory data is considered more representative for calculating overall demand as it includes various types of aluminum inventory [5]. - Total aluminum inventory increased WoW, with levels lower than the same period in 2021-22 and 2024, but higher than in 2023 on the lunar calendar [5]. - Apparent consumption levels were higher than the same period in 2022-23 but lower than in 2024 on the lunar calendar [8]. Additional Insights - The report indicates a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector, with aluminum being prioritized over other materials such as steel and copper in the current market pecking order [1]. - The data is sourced from Mysteel, a consultancy specializing in market analysis [1][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the report on aluminum inventory and consumption trends in China as of mid-August 2025, highlighting production, inventory, and consumption metrics along with market sentiment.

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of July 31 to August 6, 2025 [1][2]. Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 846,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 2% year-over-year (YoY) [1]. - Aluminum billet production was 338 kt, showing a decrease of 1% WoW but an increase of 1% YoY [1]. - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 26.9 million tons (mnt), up 3.0% YoY, while aluminum billet production was 10.8 mnt, up 6.0% YoY [1]. Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory stood at 889 kt on August 7, 2025, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a 20% decrease YoY [1]. - Breakdown of inventory: - Social inventory: 704 kt (+3% WoW, -26% YoY) - Producers' inventory: 185 kt (-8% WoW, +9% YoY) [1]. - For aluminum ingots, total inventory was 637 kt (+3% WoW, -28% YoY) and for aluminum billets, it was 252 kt (-4% WoW, +10% YoY) [1]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 874 kt, increasing by 6% WoW and 2% YoY [2]. - Specific consumption figures: - Aluminum ingot consumption: 881 kt (+5% WoW, +2% YoY) - Aluminum billet consumption: 332 kt (+1% WoW, +1% YoY) [2]. - YTD apparent consumption reached 27.6 mnt, up 5.0% YoY [2]. Market Sentiment - The market expectation for demand recovery in the aluminum sector remains cautious, despite the increase in apparent consumption [1][2]. - The report suggests that the inventory data for aluminum ingots and billets is more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand [3]. Comparative Analysis - The current inventory levels are lower than those recorded during the same period in 2021-2022 and 2024, but higher than in 2023 on the lunar calendar [3]. - Apparent consumption levels are higher than the same period in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [5]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels as a key indicator of market demand and potential price movements in the aluminum sector [3]. - The aluminum sector is currently ranked highest in demand compared to other materials such as steel, copper, and thermal coal [1]. This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the report on the aluminum industry in China, highlighting production, inventory, and consumption trends.

Investment Rating - The latest sector pecking order for investment is aluminum > lithium > copper > steel > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1] Core Insights - Market expectations on demand recovery for aluminum in China remain cautious, with production data showing a flat week-over-week (WoW) performance but a 2% year-over-year (YoY) increase [1] - Total aluminum production in China for the week of June 26 to July 2, 2025, was 844kt, with aluminum billet production at 349kt, reflecting a 2% decrease WoW but an 8% increase YoY [1][2] - The year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production in China reached 22.6 million tonnes (mnt), marking a 3.2% increase YoY, while aluminum billet production was 9.1mnt, up 6.4% YoY [1] Production Summary - Total aluminum production in China was 844kt for the week, flat WoW, and up 2% YoY [1] - Aluminum billet production was 349kt, down 2% WoW, but up 8% YoY [1] - YTD aluminum production was 22.6mnt, with a 3.2% YoY increase [1] Inventory Summary - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory in China was 773kt on July 3, 2025, reflecting a 3% increase WoW but a 33% decrease YoY [2] - The inventory of aluminum ingot was 517kt, up 2% WoW and down 41% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 256kt, up 5% WoW and down 8% YoY [2] Consumption Summary - Overall aluminum apparent consumption in China was 833kt for the week, flat WoW and down 1% YoY [3] - Aluminum ingot apparent consumption was 864kt, flat WoW, and up 4% YoY, while aluminum billet apparent consumption was 318kt, down 2% WoW and down 4% YoY [3] - YTD overall aluminum apparent consumption was 23.3mnt, with a 5.7% YoY increase [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb9.62 per share based on a 2.22x 2025E P/B [18] - The investment rating for Baoshan Iron & Steel is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb8.2 per share based on a 0.85x 2025E P/B [22] - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium is "Hold" with a target price of HK$23.0 for H-shares and Rmb26.26 for A-shares [24][27] Core Insights - The report indicates cautious market expectations regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector in China, with a near-term pecking order of steel > aluminum > lithium > copper > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1] - Total aluminum production in China for the week of June 12-18, 2025, was 845kt, flat week-over-week (WoW), and up 3% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Total aluminum inventory in China stood at 722kt on June 19, 2025, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a significant 38% decrease YoY [3] - Apparent aluminum consumption in China was 849kt during the same week, down 6% WoW but up 5.8% YoY for the year-to-date [4] Production Summary - China's total aluminum production year-to-date reached 20.9 million tonnes (mnt), representing a 3.2% increase YoY, while aluminum billet production was 8.4mnt, up 6.2% YoY [2] - Aluminum billet production for the week was 365kt, flat WoW, and up 9% YoY [2] Inventory Summary - The total inventory of aluminum ingots was 493kt, down 3% WoW and 40% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 229kt, up 9% WoW but down 30% YoY [3] - The inventory levels are lower than the same period in 2021-2024 on a lunar calendar basis [7] Consumption Summary - Apparent consumption of aluminum ingots was 885kt, down 3% WoW but up 1% YoY, while aluminum billet apparent consumption was 329kt, down 7% WoW but up 3% YoY [4] - Year-to-date apparent consumption of aluminum in China reached 21.6mnt, reflecting a 5.8% increase YoY [4]