不服输，才是企业经营的底色 在商业世界里，没有永远的高光，也没有永恒的低谷。市场风云变幻，技术迭代如潮，政策风向难测，消费者口味更是说变就变。今天还在庆祝销量破 亿，明天可能就被对手截胡；刚融资上市，转眼就被资本抛弃。企业的生命周期，从来不是一条平滑上升的曲线，而是一场不断跌倒、不断爬起的拉锯 战。真正能让一家企业穿越周期的，不是运气，不是风口，而是那股"不服输"的劲儿——明知山有虎，偏向虎山行。 一、不认命，是创业公司的"第一性原理" 2012年，字节跳动刚成立时，BAT三座大山压得所有创业者喘不过气。新闻客户端市场早已是腾讯、网易、搜狐的天下，算法推荐被质疑"没编辑基因"。 张一鸣却带着几十号人，在知春路一家小办公室里日夜迭代，坚信"信息应该主动找人"。头两年，日活迟迟不过千万，投资人劝"早点卖身"，但他就是不 服：为什么中国不能有自己的内容分发操作系统？正是这种"不服"，让今日头条从红海杀出血路，也为抖音的全球化埋下伏笔。后来有人问张一鸣："你 怎么判断风口？"他答："我们不追风口，我们让风来追。"——这不是狂傲，而是把不服输写进了商业模型。 二、跌倒后不"躺平"，才能把危机变成跳板 五、结语：生意有输 ...

Summary of Greater China Semiconductors Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Greater China semiconductor industry, highlighting recent developments in domestic DUV testing and the AI chip market. Key Companies Discussed - **SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp)**: Testing China's first domestic DUV lithography tool from Yuliangsheng - **Yuliangsheng (YLS)**: A Shanghai start-up producing DUV lithography tools - **Nvidia**: Mentioned in the context of a ban on its RTX Pro 6000D chips for Chinese CSPs - **ASMPT**: Equipment vendor expected to benefit from increasing demand - **Wanye**: Another equipment vendor mentioned in relation to domestic demand - **Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC)**: Regulatory body involved in the ban on Nvidia chips Core Insights - **Domestic DUV Lithography Tool**: SMIC is testing YLS's DUV lithography tool, marking a significant step towards self-reliance in wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) in China. However, the tool is still in the demo phase and may take 1-2 years to achieve high-volume production viability [1] - **Ban on Nvidia Chips**: The CAC's instruction to halt testing and cancel orders for Nvidia's RTX Pro 6000D was anticipated due to low demand among Chinese CSPs [1] - **AI Chip Market**: Domestic AI chips such as Ascend, Cambricon, and Kunlunxin are improving in performance, which is expected to sustain positive sentiment in the Chinese AI chip market and its supply chain [1] Financial Projections and Valuations - **ASMPT**: Target price set at HK$85 based on a 22x 2026E P/E, driven by expected revenue recovery from TCB order wins and stabilization in SEMI and SMT markets [4] - **OmniVision**: Target price of Rmb180 based on a 50x 2025E P/E, justified by anticipated strong earnings growth from automotive market share gains [6] - **SG Micro**: Target price of Rmb100 based on a 65x 2026E EPS, reflecting early-stage analog localization in China [8] - **Wanye**: Target price of Rmb13.0, reflecting a discount due to underperformance in revenue growth and profitability [10] - **SMIC**: Target price of HK$53.0 based on a 2.4x 2026 P/B, supported by US-China decoupling demand and gradual industry recovery [13] Risks Identified - **ASMPT**: Risks include a worsening semiconductor outlook, market share loss, and competition [5] - **OmniVision**: Risks involve pricing pressure in automotive CIS, market share loss, and competition [7] - **SG Micro**: Risks include price competition, inventory corrections, and demand slowdowns [9] - **Wanye**: Risks include supply chain disruptions due to US restrictions and underperformance in revenue growth [11] - **SMIC**: Risks include margin pressures from depreciation, weak policy support, and demand fluctuations [15] Additional Insights - The ongoing developments in the semiconductor industry reflect a broader trend towards localization and self-sufficiency in China, particularly in response to geopolitical tensions and export restrictions from the US [1][3] - The positive sentiment surrounding domestic AI chips indicates a potential shift in market dynamics, favoring local manufacturers over foreign competitors [1] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Greater China semiconductor industry.