Geopolitical Context - The U.S.-Iran tensions escalated in January 2026, transitioning into a phase of "high-pressure coercion + parallel negotiations" in February[1][2] - The U.S. military significantly increased its presence in the Middle East, deploying two carrier strike groups with approximately 140-150 aircraft, while intensifying sanctions on Iranian officials and oil trade[1][18] Market Reactions - During the warning phase (January 1-15, 2026), Brent crude oil rose by 4.9%, while the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) surged by 13.7%[4][23] - In the conflict phase (from January 15, 2026, to present), oil prices increased by an additional 11.0%, and BDTI continued to strengthen, rising by 20.6%[4][23] Risk Assessment - The market is currently pricing "transportation risk" ahead of "supply disruption," indicating a lower probability of a decisive U.S. resolution to the Iran issue[4][22] - The geopolitical situation is expected to remain volatile, with potential scenarios including troop withdrawal or escalation of military presence impacting strategic resources like gold and energy[4][30][31] Historical Comparisons - Historical data shows that different types of geopolitical conflicts have varying impacts on oil prices and shipping rates, with the current U.S.-Iran situation focusing on crude supply and transit security risks[4][34] - The Red Sea crisis (November 2023 to January 2024) resulted in Brent crude falling by 11% and BDTI dropping by 15%, while the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) rose by 14.5%[4][26] Strategic Resource Valuation - The ongoing restructuring of the international order is likely to lead to a revaluation of strategic resources, including gold and defense sectors, which are expected to outperform crude oil in the medium to long term[4][10][32] - If the conflict does not escalate into a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil shipping and crude oil prices may revert to fundamental logic after initial volatility[4][32]