作为标普500最大权重股和AI交易中心，英伟达业绩的重要性前所未有。分析人士指出，如果投资者满意 三季度业绩和指引，多头将推动全球市场在年末迎来乐观收官；如果不满意，市场可能面临更深的调整。 全球市场正陷入一场危险的集体焦虑，而唯一能打破这种僵局的恐怕只有英伟达。这家市值4.5万亿美元 的芯片巨头将于美东时间周三（北京时间周四凌晨）美股盘后公布三季度财报，这份财报将决定全球市 场在今年最后几周的走向。 眼下，市场的紧张情绪正在蔓延：从比特币到科技股，从黄金到国债，从私募市场到企业债券，几乎所 有资产类别都遭遇抛售压力。 在这样的背景下，投资者将目光聚焦在英伟达身上，这既是希望也是无 奈。 这家公司的业绩将直接反映科技巨头们数千亿美元AI投资的真实回报。 目前，华尔街分析师普遍看好英伟达即将公布的财报，预计净利润和营收将双双增长超过50%。 分析人士指出， 如果投资者满意英伟达的三季度业绩和四季度指引，多头将推动市场迎来乐观收官；如 果不满意，市场可能面临更深的调整 。正如华尔街人士所言， "这是一份英伟达走向如何，市场就走向 如何的报告。" 值得注意的是，在市场高度集中风险下，英伟达作为标普500指数最大权重 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley anticipates that NVIDIA's Q3 revenue will exceed market expectations of approximately $55 billion, with Q4 guidance reaching between $63 billion and $64 billion, significantly higher than the consensus estimate of $61.5 billion. The primary constraint on growth is supply chain capacity rather than demand, which is expected to persist until 2026 [1][3][5]. Supply Chain Capacity - The report emphasizes that supply chain capacity is the sole limiting factor for NVIDIA's growth, as demand for AI computing power continues to significantly outstrip supply. Major customers, including hyperscale cloud service providers and AI research labs, are still facing computing power shortages [5][8]. - NVIDIA's Blackwell/Blackwell Ultra rack shipments are projected to have increased by approximately 50% quarter-over-quarter, reaching around 10,000 racks in Q3. This growth momentum is expected to continue into Q4 [4][9]. - For the entire fiscal year 2026, NVIDIA's total rack shipments are expected to reach between 28,000 and 30,000 units, although supply chain capacity will remain a key limiting factor until 2026 [9][11]. Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley provides an optimistic long-term signal, suggesting that NVIDIA's supply chain has the capacity to support rack shipments doubling year-over-year by FY2027, reaching between 60,000 and 70,000 racks. The backlog of orders has already exceeded 70,000 racks, indicating strong future growth potential [11][12]. Key Focus Areas for Investors - Investors are advised to pay close attention to management's commentary on four key long-term variables during the upcoming earnings call: 1. The ramp-up trajectory of Blackwell/Blackwell Ultra capacity entering the first half of FY2027 [14] 2. The sustainability of AI spending, with expectations of ample funding in the AI sector until 2030 [15] 3. The impact of power limitations, as approximately 120 GW of data center power capacity is expected to come online globally over the next five years [16] 4. The influence of component cost inflation on gross margins, particularly regarding rising prices for memory and chips [17] Gross Margin Analysis - The report details that the rising prices of LPDDR memory pose a greater pressure point than HBM memory. Although HBM4 is expected to see a 30-40% increase in average selling price, NVIDIA can incorporate these costs into the pricing of its next-generation Rubin platform. However, for LPDDR memory, the company may have to accept variable market prices, limiting the potential for further gross margin improvement [18][19].