丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨通信设备Ⅲ [Table_Title] 英伟达财报超预期，谷歌 Gemini 3 大放异彩 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 英伟达 FY26Q3 业绩超预期，数据中心业务高速增长；GB300 加速放量，Rubin 平台预计在 2026H2 加速推广。谷歌 Gemini 3 展现强劲多模态能力，支持原生生成式 UI，全面接入搜索 场景；模型采用自研 TPU 训练，有望提升成本效率。全球算力需求加速释放，产业景气再得 验证，持续看好海外 AI 算力供应链。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517110002 SAC：S0490522050005 SFC：BUX641 于海宁 黄天佑 操俊茹 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 通信设备Ⅲ cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 英伟达财报超预期，谷歌 Gemini 3 大放异彩 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 风险提示 丨证券研究报告丨 2025-11-21 行业研究丨点评报告 [Table_Rank ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA, indicating expected investment returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's FY26Q3 revenue reached $57.006 billion, exceeding market expectations and showing a year-over-year growth of 62% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 22% [1][2]. - The company expects FY26Q4 revenue guidance of $65 billion, which is higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $62.133 billion [1]. - Strong demand for AI and data center products, particularly from the Blackwell and Rubin platforms, is driving revenue growth [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY26Q3 revenue was $57.006 billion, with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 73.6% and a Non-GAAP net profit of $31.767 billion, resulting in a Non-GAAP EPS of $1.30 [1]. - The data center business generated $51.215 billion in revenue, up 66% year-over-year and 25% quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The gaming segment reported $4.265 billion in revenue, a 30% increase year-over-year [3]. Business Segments - Data Center: Contributed significantly to revenue, with expectations of continued capital expenditure growth from major cloud service providers [2]. - Gaming: Revenue growth driven by strong demand for Blackwell architecture chips [3]. - Professional Visualization: Revenue of $760 million, up 56% year-over-year, attributed to new product sales [3]. - Automotive: Revenue reached $592 million, a 32% increase year-over-year, supported by the adoption of the autonomous driving platform [3]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts NVIDIA's GAAP net profit for FY2026 at $113.88 billion, with upward revisions for FY2027 and FY2028 net profits to $170.236 billion and $209.333 billion, respectively [4][5]. - The current stock price of $186.52 corresponds to projected P/E ratios of 40x for FY2026, 27x for FY2027, and 22x for FY2028 [4].

在AI泡沫论日趋盛行的背景下，全球算力龙头英伟达11月20日发布的2026财年第三季度财务报告，单 季度收入570亿美元再创新高，进一步"背书"AI市场繁荣。 展望2026财年第四季度，英伟达收入预计将达到650亿美元，上下浮动2%；GAAP和非GAAP毛利率预 计分别为74.8%和75.0%，上下浮动50个基准点。 英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋表示："Blackwell的销量远超预期，云端GPU也已售罄。训练和推理 领域的计算需求持续加速扩大，且均呈指数级增长。" 11月20日，截至记者发稿，美股英伟达盘前上涨约5.08%；A股英伟达产业链指数下跌，天孚通信 （300394）上涨约4.48%。 目标5000亿美元 财报显示，英伟达截至2025年10月26日的第三季度收入为570亿美元，较上一季度增长22%，较去年同 期增长62%；净利润319.1亿元，同比增长65%，增速创年内季度新高。 作为主要收入来源，英伟达数据中心第三季度收入创下512亿美元的纪录，同比增长66%；其次，游戏 收入为43亿美元，同比增长30%，专业视觉收入和汽车收入同比增长。 在业绩说明会上，英伟达CFO科莱特.克雷斯表示，加速计算 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia reported strong financial results for FY26Q3, with revenue of $57.006 billion, a year-over-year increase of 62% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 22%, exceeding market expectations [1] - The company achieved a net profit of $31.910 billion, up 65% year-over-year and 21% quarter-over-quarter, also surpassing market forecasts [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.30, reflecting a 67% increase year-over-year and a 20% increase quarter-over-quarter, exceeding the expected $1.26 [1] Financial Performance - FY26Q4 revenue is projected to be $65 billion, representing a 65% year-over-year increase and a 14% quarter-over-quarter increase, surpassing market expectations of $61.6 billion [3] - Gross margin for FY26Q3 was reported at 73.4%, exceeding the previous guidance of 72.4%, with guidance for FY26Q4 set at 74.8% [4] Business Segments - Data Center revenue reached $43.028 billion, a 56% year-over-year increase and a 57% quarter-over-quarter increase, exceeding expectations [3] - Gaming revenue for FY26Q3 was $4.265 billion, falling short of the expected $4.425 billion [3] - Automotive revenue was $0.592 billion, also below the expected $0.622 billion [3] Market Outlook - Nvidia's CEO emphasized that AI investments are not in a bubble, citing three major paradigm shifts in the information technology sector that will drive infrastructure growth in the coming years [5] - The company has established strong partnerships across its supply chain, ensuring effective planning and management of resources [5] - The global AI infrastructure market is projected to reach $3-4 trillion by 2030, indicating significant growth potential [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's FY26Q3 financial report indicates a robust demand for AI computing power, with a significant revenue forecast of $500 billion from the Blackwell and Rubin platforms by the end of 2026, amidst a backdrop of global GPU shortages and a backlog of 5 million orders [1][2][30]. Financial Performance - Revenue reached $57.01 billion, exceeding expectations by nearly $2 billion and showing a year-over-year increase of 62% [2][3]. - Adjusted net profit was $31.7 billion, translating to an average daily profit of $350 million, surpassing the annual revenue of many tech companies [2][4]. - Adjusted gross margin was 73.6%, with a target of 75% for FY27, reflecting improved profitability [5][7]. Business Segments - Data center revenue was $51.2 billion, accounting for 90% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 66% [9]. - The computing business grew by 56%, supported by the GB300 product line [10]. - Networking revenue doubled to $8.2 billion, driven by NVLink and Spectrum-X [13]. - Gaming revenue was $4.3 billion, up 30% year-over-year, while professional visualization and automotive segments also showed strong growth [16]. Demand and Orders - Nvidia reported a staggering demand for GPUs, with a backlog of 5 million units and a projected revenue visibility of $500 billion from AI projects through 2026 [18][30]. - Major partnerships include a 1 GW computing power agreement with Anthropic and a three-year supply deal with Saudi Arabia for 400,000 to 600,000 GPUs [18]. Technological Advancements - The Blackwell platform, particularly the GB300, is expected to dominate the market, offering performance improvements over previous models [19]. - The upcoming Rubin platform, set to launch in late 2026, aims for significant performance enhancements [19][31]. Strategic Partnerships and Supply Chain - Nvidia's growth is supported by strategic partnerships across various sectors, including collaborations with OpenAI and traditional industries like Caterpillar and Toyota [22][25]. - The company is focused on building a resilient global supply chain, with key partnerships with TSMC and other suppliers to ensure production capacity [26][27]. Future Outlook - Nvidia's financial results challenge the notion of an AI bubble, demonstrating real demand and profitability in the AI sector [30]. - Key indicators for future growth include meeting revenue targets for FY26Q4, successful launch of the Rubin platform, and maintaining supply chain stability [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's FY26Q3 financial report indicates a robust and sustained demand for AI computing power, with significant revenue growth and a strong order backlog, dispelling concerns about an AI bubble [2][4][49]. Financial Performance - Revenue reached $57.01 billion, exceeding expectations by nearly $2 billion and showing a year-over-year increase of 62% [3][5]. - Adjusted net profit was $31.7 billion, translating to an average daily profit of $350 million, surpassing the annual revenue of many tech companies [3][4]. - The adjusted gross margin was 73.6%, with a target of 75% for FY27, indicating improved profitability [7][9]. Business Segments - Data center revenue was $51.2 billion, accounting for 90% of total revenue, with a year-over-year increase of 66% [11]. - The computing business grew by 56%, supported by the GB300 product line [12]. - Networking revenue doubled to $8.2 billion, driven by NVLink and Spectrum-X [15][38]. - Automotive revenue reached $592 million, a 32% increase year-over-year, indicating future potential in autonomous driving [17]. Demand Dynamics - Nvidia has a backlog of $500 billion in orders, with 5 million GPUs needed for AI projects this quarter [18][22]. - The demand spans across cloud providers, sovereign nations, and tech companies, with no signs of a seasonal slowdown [23][24]. - Key partnerships include a 1 GW computing power agreement with Anthropic and a three-year supply deal with Saudi Arabia for 400,000 to 600,000 GPUs [21]. Technological Leadership - The Blackwell platform is a key driver, with the GB300 product contributing nearly two-thirds of its revenue and outperforming previous models [31][32]. - The upcoming Rubin platform, set to launch in the second half of 2026, aims for significant performance improvements [34]. - The CUDA ecosystem remains a critical competitive advantage, ensuring customer retention and performance upgrades [36]. Supply Chain and Partnerships - Nvidia is building a resilient global supply chain, with key partners including TSMC and Foxconn [44]. - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is projected to reach 105,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026 [45]. - The company maintains a cooperative stance with competitors like Intel, balancing competition with collaboration [46]. Future Outlook - Key indicators for Nvidia's continued growth include meeting FY26Q4 revenue targets, successful Rubin platform production, and stable supply chain costs [51]. - Nvidia's core advantages include its technological monopoly, the CUDA ecosystem, and a substantial order backlog, positioning it as a critical player in the AI infrastructure market [52].

Core Insights - The AI server design is undergoing a structural transformation, with the transition to cableless architecture and high-density interconnect (HDI) designs becoming central to the PCB industry's evolution [1][2] - The introduction of the Rubin platform marks a significant shift in PCB's role, emphasizing signal integrity and transmission stability as core design metrics [1][2] Group 1: PCB Design and Technology - The Rubin platform utilizes a cableless interconnect design, enhancing the PCB industry's status by shifting from traditional cable-based connections to multi-layer PCBs [1] - The new design materials include M8U grade for Switch Tray and M9 for Midplane, with PCB value per server increasing by over two times compared to previous generations [2] - The design logic of Rubin has become a common language in the industry, influencing other ASIC AI servers like Google TPU V7 and AWS Trainium3 [2] Group 2: Material Innovations - The demand for PCB performance in AI servers is driving significant changes in upstream materials, focusing on dielectric and thermal stability [2] - Nittobo is investing 15 billion yen to expand production of T-glass, which is expected to triple its capacity by the end of 2026, becoming a core material for ABF and BT substrates [2] - Low roughness HVLP4 copper foil is becoming mainstream due to the increasing impact of skin effect, leading to long-term supply tightness and a shift in bargaining power back to upstream material suppliers [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights a structural transformation in AI server design, emphasizing the shift from traditional cable-based architectures to cableless interconnect designs, particularly with NVIDIA's Rubin platform [2][3] - The transition to high-density interconnects and advanced materials in PCB design is identified as a key driver for enhancing server performance and efficiency [3][4] Group 1: AI Server Design Evolution - AI servers are moving towards a cableless architecture, which enhances signal integrity and transmission stability by utilizing multi-layer PCBs instead of traditional cabling [2] - The Rubin platform's design incorporates advanced materials and high-density interconnects, resulting in a more than twofold increase in PCB value compared to previous generations [3] Group 2: Material Upgrades and Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand for high-performance PCBs in AI servers is driving significant changes in upstream materials, particularly in fiberglass and copper foil, which are critical for dielectric and thermal stability [4] - Japanese company Nittobo is investing 15 billion yen to expand production of T-glass, which is expected to triple its capacity by the end of 2026, highlighting the increasing importance of advanced materials in PCB manufacturing [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - TrendForce anticipates that 2026 will mark a new starting point for PCBs, driven by technology content that enhances value [5]

Core Insights - Nvidia reported Q3 FY26 revenue of $57.01 billion, exceeding market expectations of $54.92 billion, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 22% and a year-over-year growth of 62% [2][3] - The net income for the quarter was $31.91 billion, a significant increase of 65% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.30, surpassing the expected $1.25 [2][3] - The gross margin stood at 73.4%, slightly down by 1.2 percentage points year-over-year [2][3] Revenue Breakdown - Data center business accounted for nearly 90% of total revenue, reaching a record $51.2 billion, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 25% and a year-over-year growth of 66% [3][4] - Gaming revenue was $4.3 billion, showing a slight decline of 1% quarter-over-quarter but a growth of 30% year-over-year [4] - Professional visualization revenue was $760 million, up 26% quarter-over-quarter and 56% year-over-year [4] - Automotive revenue reached $592 million, with a 1% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 32% increase year-over-year [4] Future Outlook - For Q4 FY26, Nvidia expects revenue to be around $65 billion, with a margin of fluctuation of 2% [4] - Projected gross margins are expected to be 74.8% under GAAP and 75.0% under non-GAAP, with a fluctuation of 50 basis points [4] Market Context - Concerns regarding an "AI bubble" have led to significant sell-offs in tech stocks, including Nvidia, with notable investors like SoftBank and Peter Thiel reducing their stakes [5] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that the company views the current market dynamics differently, highlighting three major platform transformations: the shift from CPU to GPU computing, the critical point of AI, and the rise of intelligent AI systems [5][6] Infrastructure Investment - Nvidia's CFO Colette Kress projected that revenue from the Blackwell and Rubin platforms will reach $500 billion from early 2023 to December 2026 [6] - The company aims to be a preferred partner in the $3 trillion to $4 trillion AI infrastructure market by the end of the decade, with demand for AI infrastructure exceeding expectations [6] - The Rubin platform is set to begin production in 2026, promising significant performance improvements over the Blackwell platform [6] Geopolitical Challenges - Nvidia faced challenges in fulfilling large orders from the Chinese market due to geopolitical issues and increased competition [6][7] - The company remains committed to engaging with both the U.S. and Chinese governments to maintain competitiveness in the AI computing sector [7]

Core Insights - Nvidia reported record revenue of $57.01 billion for Q3 FY2026, a 62% year-over-year increase, significantly exceeding market expectations [3][5] - The company provided a strong revenue guidance of $65 billion for Q4 FY2026, indicating robust growth momentum [3][7] - The Blackwell platform is a major revenue driver, with GB300 accounting for two-thirds of Blackwell's total revenue, and demand for cloud GPUs has outstripped supply [3][6][7] - The next-generation Rubin platform is progressing as planned, with the first chip delivered and mass production expected in FY2026 [3][6] - Software and services, particularly AI Enterprise and DGX Cloud, are experiencing significant growth, enhancing revenue visibility and resilience [3][6] Financial Performance - Revenue reached $57.01 billion, up 62% year-over-year and 22% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing the market expectation of $55.19 billion [5] - Net profit was $31.9 billion, reflecting a 65% year-over-year increase [5] - Gross margin was reported at 73.4% (GAAP) and 73.6% (non-GAAP) [5] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $1.30 (non-GAAP) [5] Business Segment Performance - Data center revenue was $51.2 billion, a 66% year-over-year increase [6] - Gaming/AI PC business generated $4.3 billion, up 30% year-over-year [6] - Professional visualization revenue reached $760 million, a 56% year-over-year increase [6] - Automotive and robotics revenue was $592 million, reflecting a 32% year-over-year growth [6] Future Guidance - The company expects Q4 revenue to be $65 billion (±2%) [7] - Non-GAAP gross margin guidance is set at 75.0% (±50 basis points), significantly above market expectations [7] Business Highlights and Strategic Direction - Demand for data center products remains strong, with supply being a key focus [7] - CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the emergence of new AI model manufacturers and startups across various industries and countries [7] - Nvidia is positioned as a leader in AI infrastructure, with a comprehensive system offering beyond just chip sales [10][12] Management Commentary - CEO Jensen Huang noted that computational demand in training and inference is accelerating, creating a compounding effect [11] - CFO Colette Kress confirmed that demand for AI infrastructure continues to exceed expectations and projected a gross margin of around 70% by FY2027 [12] - Management addressed investor concerns about sustainability of growth, indicating that demand is accelerating and new applications are emerging [13] - Inventory levels have increased, but management clarified that this is likely a strategic move to prepare for future demand rather than a sign of weakening demand [15]