Core Insights - Merck & Co. (MRK) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) are significant players in the pharmaceutical industry with diverse product portfolios [1][2] - Merck is recognized for its leadership in oncology, while Bristol Myers focuses on breakthrough therapies across multiple therapeutic areas [1][2] Merck (MRK) Overview - Merck has over six blockbuster drugs, with Keytruda accounting for 54% of total sales in 2025, driving revenue growth [3][4] - Keytruda's sales increased by approximately 7% in 2025, benefiting from its approval for various oncology indications [4] - The FDA approved Keytruda Qlex for subcutaneous administration in September 2025, with peak sales targeted at $35 billion by 2028 [5] - Other oncology drugs like Welireg, Lynparza, and Lenvima are contributing to growth, alongside a strong launch of Winrevair in pulmonary arterial hypertension [6] - Merck is enhancing its vaccine portfolio, particularly with the new 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, Capvaxive [7] - The company has around 80 ongoing late-stage studies, expecting over $70 billion in potential commercial opportunities by the mid-2030s [8] Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) Overview - BMY's growth portfolio includes key brands such as Opdivo, Yervoy, and Reblozyl, with a strong oncology focus [12] - Opdivo's consistent label expansion has maintained its momentum, and the approval of Opdivo Qvantig has strengthened its franchise [13] - BMY's Reblozyl sales exceed $2 billion annually, and strong performance in cardiovascular drug Camzyos has boosted revenues [14] - However, legacy drugs face significant generic competition, with expected sales declines of 12-16% in 2026 [15] - BMY is pursuing strategic acquisitions and collaborations, including a recent agreement with BioNTech to co-develop a bispecific antibody [16][17] - The company aims for $2 billion in annualized cost savings by the end of 2027, having achieved approximately $1 billion in savings in 2025 [18] Financial Performance and Valuation - MRK's 2026 sales are estimated to increase by 2.59%, but EPS is expected to decline by 38.75% [20] - BMY's 2026 sales are projected to decrease by 2.32%, while EPS is expected to increase by 0.33% [20] - MRK shares trade at 21X forward earnings, while BMY trades at 9.74X, with the industry average at 18.74X [24] - BMY offers a higher dividend yield of 4.22% compared to MRK's 2.79% [25] Investment Outlook - BMY is currently viewed as a stronger near-term investment option compared to MRK, which faces multiple headwinds [9][30] - BMY's strategic initiatives and new drug approvals position it favorably against MRK's challenges, including declining sales of Gardasil and competitive pressures on Keytruda [27][30]

Core Insights - Merck's stock has increased by 7.4% over the past month, driven by better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and a positive outlook for future growth [1][10] - The company reported fourth-quarter earnings of $2.04 per share, a 19% year-over-year increase, and sales of $16.40 billion, up 5% [1] - Merck's 2026 revenue outlook is projected between $65.5 billion and $67.0 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 1% to 3%, but adjusted EPS is expected to decline significantly due to higher business development charges [2] Financial Performance - In Q4, Merck's earnings and sales exceeded estimates, contributing to the stock's rise [1][10] - The company anticipates a decline in adjusted EPS from $8.98 in 2025 to between $5.00 and $5.15 in 2026 [2] - Merck's stock has outperformed the industry, rising 43.6% in the past year compared to the industry's 19.1% increase [24][25] Product Portfolio and Pipeline - Keytruda remains a significant driver for Merck, accounting for approximately 55% of pharmaceutical sales, with sales of $31.7 billion in 2025, a 7% increase year-over-year [5][6] - The company expects Keytruda to achieve peak sales of $35 billion by 2028, despite the impending loss of patent exclusivity [8] - Merck's pipeline has expanded significantly, with new products like Capvaxive and Winrevair showing potential for substantial revenue generation [11][12] Strategic Initiatives - Merck is pursuing innovative strategies to enhance Keytruda's long-term growth, including new immuno-oncology combinations and partnerships for personalized cancer vaccines [7] - The company has been active in acquisitions to bolster its pipeline, including the purchase of Verona and Cidara Therapeutics, which added promising candidates to its portfolio [14][15] - Merck's Animal Health business is projected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with expectations of doubling sales by the mid-2030s [32] Challenges and Market Dynamics - Sales of Gardasil, Merck's HPV vaccine, have declined due to weak demand in China, with a 39% drop in 2025 [16] - The company faces increasing competition for Keytruda from new dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitors, which may impact its market position [19][20] - Merck anticipates a revenue hit of approximately $2.5 billion in 2026 due to generic competition affecting several of its products [22][23]

Core Insights - Merck (MRK) reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.04, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.03, with a 19% year-over-year increase [1] - Q4 revenues rose 5% year-over-year to $16.40 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.19 billion [1][10] Sales Performance - Keytruda generated $8.37 billion in Q4 sales, a 5% increase, driven by strong uptake in earlier-stage indications and metastatic indications, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.31 billion [3] - Alliance revenues from Lynparza and Lenvima contributed to oncology sales, with Lynparza revenues increasing 4% to $389 million and Lenvima revenues totaling $272 million, up 6% [4] - Welireg recorded sales of $220 million, up 37%, benefiting from higher demand in the U.S. and launch uptake in Europe [5] - HPV vaccine sales (Gardasil and Gardasil 9) fell 35% to $1.03 billion due to lower demand in China and Japan, narrowly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.04 billion [6] - Capvaxive, a newly launched pneumococcal vaccine, generated $279 million in sales, while Bridion injection sales reached $499 million, up 11% [7] - Januvia/Janumet franchise sales rose 3% to $501 million, driven by higher net pricing in the U.S. [8] Full-Year Results - Full-year 2025 sales increased 1% to $65.01 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $64.80 billion, with pharmaceutical sales also growing 1% to $58.10 billion [12] - Adjusted earnings for 2025 were $8.98 per share, a 17% year-over-year increase, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.95 per share [12] 2026 Guidance - Merck's 2026 revenue guidance is projected between $65.5 billion and $67.0 billion, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $67.36 billion [13] - Adjusted EPS is expected to be between $5.00 and $5.15, significantly lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.20 per share, including a one-time charge of $9 billion related to the acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics [14] - The adjusted gross margin is anticipated to be around 82% [14] Market Reaction - Despite strong Q4 results, investor sentiment was dampened by the weak 2026 guidance, leading to a decline in stock price during pre-market trading [17] - Over the past six months, Merck's shares have increased by 42.4%, outperforming the industry average increase of 26.4% [17] Pipeline and Future Outlook - Merck's late-stage pipeline has nearly tripled in the past three years, positioning the company for several new product launches over the next five years [19] - The company is also pursuing external growth opportunities through mergers and acquisitions to diversify its product lineup [19]

Core Viewpoint - Merck is expected to report its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings on February 3, with a consensus estimate of $16.19 billion in sales and $2.04 per share in earnings, but earnings estimates for 2026 have declined significantly due to costs from recent M&A activities [1][7][34] Financial Performance - Merck has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the past four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 5.08% and a notable 9.32% surprise in the last quarter [3][34] - The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.33% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [4] Factors Influencing Upcoming Results - Q4 growth is anticipated from Keytruda, Animal Health, and new drugs, although this may be offset by weaker performance from Gardasil and M&A-related costs [7][34] - Keytruda sales are projected to reach $8.31 billion, driven by strong uptake in early-stage indications and metastatic indications [9][34] - The HPV vaccine Gardasil is expected to see lower sales, particularly in China and Japan, with estimates at $1.04 billion [13][34] - The Animal Health segment is estimated to generate $1.48 billion, with mixed performance in livestock and companion animal products [17][34] Strategic Initiatives - Merck has been active in acquisitions, including Cidara Therapeutics for $9.2 billion and Verona Pharma for around $10 billion, aimed at bolstering its pipeline ahead of Keytruda's patent expiration in 2028 [28][30] - The company is positioned to launch approximately 20 new vaccines and drugs in the coming years, with several having blockbuster potential [27][34] Market Position and Valuation - Merck's stock has increased by 9.4% over the past year, underperforming the industry average of 16.1% [20][34] - The company's shares trade at a forward P/E ratio of 15.62, lower than the industry average of 18.18, but above its five-year mean of 12.48 [23][34] Investment Considerations - While Keytruda remains a significant revenue driver, there are concerns about Merck's reliance on this drug and its ability to diversify its product lineup [31][34] - Short-term investors may be cautious due to challenges such as Gardasil's performance, potential competition for Keytruda, and rising pressures from generics [34]

Core Insights - Merck (MRK) reported Q3 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.58, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.36, with a year-over-year increase of 64% on a reported basis and 65% excluding foreign exchange [1][10] - Revenues for Q3 increased by 4% year-over-year to $17.28 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.06 billion [1][10] Sales Performance of Key Products - Keytruda, Merck's leading oncology drug, generated sales of $8.14 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.40 billion [3] - Alliance revenues from Lynparza and Lenvima contributed positively, with Lynparza sales rising 12% to $379 million and Lenvima revenues totaling $258 million, up 2% [4] - Welireg recorded sales of $196 million, reflecting a 41% increase due to higher demand in the U.S. and early uptake in Europe [5] - HPV vaccines, Gardasil and Gardasil 9, saw a 25% decline in sales to $1.75 billion, primarily due to lower demand in China and Japan [6] - Capvaxive, a new pneumococcal vaccine, generated $244 million in sales, up from $129 million in the previous quarter [7] - The diabetes drug franchise, Januvia/Janumet, saw a 29% increase in sales to $624 million, driven by higher net pricing in the U.S. [8] Animal Health Segment - The animal health segment generated revenues of $1.62 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, driven by higher demand for livestock products [11] 2025 Guidance - Merck narrowed its 2025 sales guidance to $64.5-$65.0 billion, reflecting a slight adjustment from the previous range [12] - Adjusted EPS guidance for 2025 was raised to a range of $8.93 to $8.98, incorporating a revised negative impact from foreign exchange [13] - The updated EPS outlook includes benefits from a revised AstraZeneca deal and improved operations, partially offset by costs from the acquisition of Verona Pharma [14][15] Market Reaction - Despite strong Q3 results, Merck's shares fell over 2% in pre-market trading due to Keytruda's weaker-than-expected sales and the narrowed sales guidance [19]

Core Insights - Merck (MRK) reported Q2 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.13, exceeding estimates, but a 7% decline year-over-year on a reported basis due to a $200 million upfront payment for a license agreement with Hengrui Pharma [2][9][17] - Revenues decreased 2% year-over-year to $15.81 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [3][9] Sales Performance of Oncology Drugs - Keytruda sales reached $7.96 billion, a 9% increase, driven by strong uptake in various cancer indications, surpassing estimates [4][9] - Alliance revenues from Lynparza and Lenvima contributed positively, with Lynparza sales up 15% to $370 million and Lenvima revenues totaling $265 million, up 5% [5] Sales Performance of Other Key Products - HPV vaccine sales (Gardasil and Gardasil 9) fell 55% to $1.13 billion due to reduced demand in China, missing estimates [7] - Sales of other vaccines showed mixed results, with Vaxneuvance increasing 20% to $229 million, while Rotateq and Pneumovax 23 saw significant declines [8][10] Animal Health Segment - The Animal Health segment generated $1.65 billion in revenues, an 11% increase year-over-year, driven by higher demand and the inclusion of Elanco aqua business sales [12] Cost and Margin Discussion - Adjusted gross margin improved to 82.2%, up 130 basis points year-over-year, attributed to a favorable product mix [13] - Adjusted R&D spending rose 15% to $3.99 billion, influenced by the upfront payment to Hengrui Pharma and increased compensation costs [14] 2025 Guidance - Merck narrowed its 2025 revenue guidance to $64.3-$65.3 billion, reflecting a less negative currency impact [15] - Adjusted EPS guidance is now between $8.87 and $8.97, accounting for a revised negative impact from foreign exchange [16] Acquisition Plans - Merck announced plans to acquire Verona Pharma for approximately $10 billion, expected to close in Q4 2025, which will enhance its portfolio in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [19]

Core Viewpoint - Merck is set to report its second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 29, with consensus estimates for sales at $15.77 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.99, reflecting a decline in earnings estimates over the past month [1][6]. Earnings Estimates and Trends - The current EPS estimate for Q2 is $1.99, down from $2.03 30 days ago, indicating a downward trend in earnings expectations [2]. - The average earnings surprise over the last four quarters is 3.82%, with the last quarter showing a surprise of 3.26% [3]. Factors Influencing Upcoming Results - Keytruda, Merck's leading cancer drug, is expected to drive top-line growth in Q2, with sales estimates for Keytruda at $7.90 billion [5][7]. - Other drugs like Lynparza and new products such as Capvaxive are anticipated to contribute positively to pharmaceutical sales [6][14]. Performance of Specific Products - Sales of Keytruda are likely boosted by its uptake in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer and continued demand in metastatic indications [7]. - The HPV vaccine Gardasil is expected to see mixed results, with lower demand in China but increased sales in other markets [10]. - Generic competition is impacting sales of certain products, such as Bridion, while new drugs like Winrevair and Capvaxive are showing promising sales growth [11][13]. Valuation and Market Performance - Merck's shares have underperformed the industry and the S&P 500, with a year-to-date loss of 13.9% [16][22]. - The company's price/earnings ratio of 9.05 is lower than the industry average of 15.25, suggesting potential attractiveness from a valuation perspective [17]. Strategic Developments - Merck's acquisition of Verona Pharma for approximately $10 billion is expected to enhance its cardio-pulmonary pipeline [21][23]. - Despite the strength of Keytruda, there are concerns regarding the company's reliance on this drug and the need for diversification [20][24]. Long-Term Outlook - While Merck faces challenges such as declining sales for Gardasil in China and potential competition for Keytruda, the company is expected to maintain strong sales until Keytruda's patent expiration in 2028 [26][27]. - Long-term investors are encouraged to stay invested, while short-term investors may consider selling due to immediate challenges [27].

Core Insights - Merck (MRK) is anticipated to encounter significant challenges affecting its long-term growth, primarily due to the expected loss of exclusivity for its leading PD-L1 inhibitor, Keytruda, in 2028 [1][10] - Keytruda, which accounts for approximately 50% of Merck's sales, generated $7.21 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase [2][10] - The company is also facing declining sales for its second-largest product, Gardasil, which saw a 40% drop in Q1 2025 due to weak demand in China [3][10] Revenue Drivers - Keytruda is projected to maintain strong sales until its patent expiration in 2028, with an estimated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% over the next three years [2] - Gardasil's sales have been declining, with a 3% decrease to $8.58 billion in 2024, and a negative CAGR of 6.4% expected over the next three years [4] Regulatory Impact - The redesign of Medicare Part D under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), effective in 2025, is expected to negatively impact sales of Merck's diabetes drug, Januvia/Janumet, in 2026, and Keytruda starting in 2028 [5][10] - Other pharmaceutical companies, including J&J, Pfizer, and Eli Lilly, are also anticipating adverse effects from the Medicare Part D changes [8] Future Growth Potential - Merck's new products, such as the 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, Capvaxive, and the pulmonary arterial hypertension drug, Winrevair, are expected to support growth post-Keytruda exclusivity [6] - The company is actively seeking to diversify its product offerings, particularly in the non-oncology sector, to mitigate potential challenges [6] Market Performance - Year-to-date, Merck's shares have decreased by 18.2%, contrasting with a 1.1% decline in the industry [11] - Merck's current price/earnings ratio stands at 8.71, which is lower than the industry average of 14.93 and its own 5-year mean of 12.83, indicating an attractive valuation [12] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Merck's 2025 earnings has slightly decreased from $8.94 to $8.91 per share, while the estimate for 2026 has dropped from $9.77 to $9.73 over the past 60 days [13]

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is expected to face multiple challenges in the coming years, including declining sales from COVID products and significant revenue impacts from patent expirations and Medicare Part D redesign [2][3][4]. Group 1: Revenue Challenges - Sales from COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, are projected to decline, with revenues in 2025 expected to be similar to 2024 [2]. - The loss of exclusivity (LOE) for key products like Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xeljanz, and Xtandi is anticipated to have a significant negative impact from 2026 to 2030 [3]. - The redesign of Medicare Part D under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is expected to adversely affect Pfizer's revenues by approximately $1 billion starting in 2025, particularly impacting higher-priced drugs [4]. Group 2: Market Environment - The appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services has put additional pressure on vaccine manufacturers like Pfizer [5]. - Broader economic factors, including tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, are contributing to muted economic growth [5]. Group 3: Growth Prospects - Despite the challenges, Pfizer's key drugs such as Vyndaqel, Padcev, and Eliquis, along with new products, are expected to drive top-line growth [6]. - Pfizer is implementing significant cost-reduction measures and improving R&D productivity, which should support profit growth despite anticipated revenue declines [6]. Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Pfizer's stock has decreased by 6.2% this year, compared to a 1.3% decline in the industry [9]. - The company is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 7.82, below the industry average of 14.81 and its own 5-year mean of 10.89, indicating attractive valuation [11]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has increased from $2.99 to $3.06 per share, while the estimate for 2026 has risen from $3.02 to $3.09 per share over the past 60 days [12].

Core Insights - Merck reported Q1 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.22, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.15, with a year-over-year earnings increase of 7% on a reported basis and 12% excluding foreign exchange impacts [1][2] - Revenues declined 2% year-over-year to $15.53 billion, but still surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.39 billion [2] Sales Performance - Keytruda, Merck's flagship product, generated sales of $7.21 billion, a 6% increase, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.55 billion due to timing issues in wholesaler purchases [3] - Alliance revenues from Lynparza and Lenvima contributed positively, with Lynparza sales increasing 8% to $312 million and Lenvima revenues totaling $258 million, up 2% [4] - Welireg sales surged 63% to $137 million, driven by higher demand in the U.S. [5] Vaccine Sales - Sales of HPV vaccines Gardasil and Gardasil 9 fell 40% to $1.33 billion, primarily due to lower demand in China [6] - Combined sales of Proquad, M-M-R II, and Varivax vaccines decreased 5% to $539 million, while sales of the pneumococcal 15-valent conjugate vaccine Vaxneuvance rose 7% to $230 million [7][8] Diabetes and Other Products - Sales of the Januvia/Janumet franchise rose 21% year-over-year to $796 million, benefiting from higher net pricing in the U.S. [9] - New PAH drug Winrevair generated $280 million in sales, up from $200 million in the previous quarter [9] Animal Health Segment - The Animal Health segment generated revenues of $1.59 billion, up 5% year-over-year, driven by higher demand for livestock products [11] Cost and Margin Analysis - Adjusted gross margin was 82.2%, up 100 basis points year-over-year, while adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses rose 3% to $2.53 billion [12] - Adjusted R&D spending decreased 9% to $3.61 billion, attributed to lower business development charges [13] 2025 Guidance - Merck maintained its sales guidance for 2025, expecting revenues between $64.1 billion and $65.6 billion, with a revised negative impact from foreign exchange of around 1% [14] - Adjusted EPS guidance was revised to a range of $8.82 to $8.97, accounting for a one-time charge related to a licensing agreement [16] Market Reaction and Future Outlook - Shares of Merck traded higher in pre-market following the earnings report, despite a 21% year-to-date decline compared to a 3% fall in the industry [19] - The company is aware of its reliance on Keytruda and is taking steps to diversify its portfolio, with a late-stage pipeline that has nearly tripled over the past three years [21]