隔夜美股科技板块大跌，如何展望后续科技叙事走向？ 20260205 摘要 特朗普提名沃什引发市场短期冲击，主要源于其对美联储政策的批评和 潜在的缩表主张，但考虑到特朗普的政治诉求和沃什上任的时间，预计 美联储年内仍将维持相对宽松的流动性环境，长期影响有限。 市场风格轮动是短期现象，始于 4,200 点难以突破，成交量下滑背景下 科技成长主题资金流入减弱。技术性量价及风格切换通常持续时间不会 超过一个季度，若宏观矛盾解除及财报指引明确，主线行情将回归。 当前 AI 行情类似 1998 年加速阶段，宏观流动性环境宽松，产业趋势类 似，估值因盈利消化较好。若硬件不断兑现并传导至应用端，则类似 1998-1999 年；若应用难以兑现且流动性收紧，则类似 1999-2000 年 泡沫尾部风险暴露阶段。 生成式 AI 产业存在泡沫但尚未达到危险程度，2027、2028 年电子板 块增速最快且估值最低。长期视角看，AI 产业仍处于发展中段，硬件成 本下降速度与推理收费标准下降速度之间的 PK 是关注重点。 Q&A 近期市场对 AI 科技的应用及其对传统 SaaS 业务的冲击产生了较大波动，您 如何看待这种情况？ 近期市场对 ...

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Core Insights - The investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares, with a balanced portfolio of approximately 50% in each [1] - The investment strategy involves identifying stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, their leverage, and to compare financial ratios with sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Investment Strategy - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months [1] - A professional background check is conducted on each insider who purchased shares after a recent sell-off to ensure credibility [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but may also invest in companies from less stable economies [1]