盘前市场动向 1. 2月12日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.33%，标普500指数期货涨0.31%，纳指期货涨0.29%。 | ■ US 30 | 50,289.20 | 50,326.40 | 50,080.10 | + | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 를 US 500 | 6,963.10 | 6,967.30 | 6,933.80 | | | 틀 US Tech 100 | 25,275.20 | 25,290.60 | 25,123.80 | | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.22%，英国富时100指数涨0.11%，法国CAC40指数涨0.74%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.59%。 | 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌0.09%，报64.57美元/桶。布伦特原油跌0.17%，报69.28美元/桶。 | | --- | 市场消息 市场误判了沃什立场? 特朗普的"全球最低利率"愿景或将成现实。尽管1月份美国非农就业数据比市场预期强劲得多，导致金融市场对于美联储2026年降息 预期从3次降至2次降息，但是华尔街对冲基金投资巨鳄、绿光资 ...

盘前市场动向 1. 2月12日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.33%，标普500指数期货涨0.31%，纳指期货涨0.29%。 | 틀 US 30 | 50,289.20 | 50,326.40 | 50,080.10 | +' | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 를 US 500 | 6,963.10 | 6,967.30 | 6,933.80 | | | 틀 US Tech 100 | 25,275.20 | 25,290.60 | 25,123.80 | | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.22%，英国富时100指数涨0.11%，法国CAC40指数涨0.74%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.59%。 | 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌0.09%，报64.57美元/桶。布伦特原油跌0.17%，报69.28美元/桶。 | | --- | 市场消息 个股消息 Siri"变身计划"被打散! 苹果(AAPL.US)内部测试翻车，"AI版Siri"被迫分期交付。多次精准提前透露iPhone更新细节的苹果产品爆料人马克·古尔曼最新发文 称，苹果长期筹划的对 ...

Core Insights - Confluent reported revenue of $314.82 million for the quarter ended December 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20.5% and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $307.29 million by 2.45% [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $0.12, an increase from $0.09 in the same quarter last year, and exceeded the consensus EPS estimate of $0.10 by 22.08% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from Services was $13.17 million, exceeding the average estimate of $10.96 million by analysts, representing a year-over-year growth of 24.5% [4] - Subscription revenue reached $301.65 million, surpassing the average estimate of $295.97 million, with a year-over-year increase of 20.4% [4] - Revenue from Confluent Cloud was $169 million, above the average estimate of $165.22 million, showing a year-over-year growth of 22.5% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Confluent's shares have returned +0.6%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has seen a decline of -0.3% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

数据流平台领军者Confluent(CFLT.US)于2月11日美股盘后正式公布了其 2025财年第四季度及全年财务 报告，这也是该公司在被科技巨头IBM(IBM.US)彻底私有化之前，作为独立上市公司的最后一份年度成 绩单。报告显示，Confluent 在核心云业务及盈利能力提升方面表现远超市场预期。截至2025年12月31 日的第四财季，公司总营收攀升至 3.148 亿美元，同比增长21%。其中，旗舰产品 Confluent Cloud 表现 尤为强劲，单季贡献收入 1.69 亿美元，同比增幅达 23%。在盈利指标方面，Confluent 成功实现了利润 率的跨越式增长。第四季度 Non-GAAP 每股收益达到 0.12 美元，显著高于分析师普遍预期的 0.10 美 元。 随着数据流技术从"可选"转变为 AI 时代的"必备"基础设施，并入 IBM 版图后的 Confluent 将如何与 watsonx 等平台深度整合，已成为业界关注的下一个焦点。 从全年维度看，公司 2025 财年总营收达到 11.67 亿美元，订阅收入达 11.2 亿美元，同比增长 21%。尤 为引人注目的是，公司的现金流状况得到了根本 ...

Core Insights - Confluent reported strong financial performance for Q4 and FY2025, with total revenue reaching $314.8 million in Q4, a 21% year-over-year increase [1] - The flagship product, Confluent Cloud, generated $169 million in revenue for the quarter, reflecting a 23% year-over-year growth [1] - The company achieved a significant increase in profitability, with Non-GAAP EPS of $0.12, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.10 [1] Financial Performance - For FY2025, Confluent's total revenue was $1.167 billion, with subscription revenue of $1.12 billion, also a 21% year-over-year increase [1] - The company's adjusted free cash flow improved dramatically from $9.5 million in FY2024 to $76 million in FY2025 [1] Acquisition Context - The financial report coincides with IBM's $11 billion acquisition of Confluent, announced at $31 per share in cash, aimed at enhancing IBM's data capabilities in generative AI and agentic AI [2] - Confluent did not hold a conference call or provide future financial guidance due to the ongoing acquisition process [2] - The acquisition has been approved by both boards and is expected to close by mid-2026, with a focus on integrating Confluent's technology with IBM's platforms like watsonx [2] Customer Metrics - By the end of 2025, the number of large customers with annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding $100,000 reached 1,521, a 10% year-over-year increase [2]

Core Thesis - Confluent, Inc. is experiencing strong growth in its data streaming platform, with a bullish outlook supported by recent financial performance and market positioning [1][8] Financial Performance - As of January 28th, Confluent's share price was $30.53, with a forward P/E ratio of 62.50 [1] - In Q3 2025, Confluent reported subscription revenue of $286 million, a 19% increase year-over-year, exceeding consensus estimates by 2% [3] - Confluent Cloud revenue grew 24% year-over-year to $161 million, also beating expectations by 2% [3] - Operating margins reached 9.7%, significantly above the 7.1% consensus, reflecting effective sales and marketing strategies [4] - Management raised guidance for Q4 2025, projecting total revenue of $296 million (up 18% year-over-year) and Confluent Cloud revenue of $165 million (up 20%) [4] Competitive Positioning - Confluent maintains a strong competitive position, achieving deal win rates above 90% against cloud service provider offerings, with average deal sizes doubling over the past two quarters [5] - Usage across multi-tenant Freight clusters, Enterprise clusters, and WarpStream has quadrupled over the last three quarters, indicating robust demand [5] Partner Ecosystem - The partner ecosystem contributed 25% of new business in Q3 2025, with key partners including Databricks, Microsoft, Google Cloud, AWS, and MongoDB [6] - The improving fundamentals and strong growth in cloud consumption position Confluent for continued momentum in revenue growth and margin expansion [6]

Core Thesis - Confluent, Inc. is experiencing strong growth driven by subscription revenue and operational efficiency, positioning itself as a leader in AI-driven data infrastructure and streaming analytics [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Confluent reported revenue of $298.5 million, a 19.3% increase year over year, surpassing estimates [2]. - Subscription revenue reached $286.3 million, accounting for 96% of total revenue, with Confluent Cloud growing 24% to $161 million [2]. - The Confluent Platform grew 14% to $125.4 million, supported by demand from regulated industries and hybrid deployments [3]. - International revenue surged 29% to $126.4 million, now representing 42% of total revenue [3]. - Non-GAAP operating margin improved by 340 basis points to 9.7%, with free cash flow margin at 8.2% and EPS of $0.13 beating expectations by 30% [3]. Customer Growth and Market Position - RPO increased by 43% to $1.26 billion, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration [3]. - The company has 1,487 clients with over $100K ARR and 234 clients with over $1M ARR, indicating strong large customer momentum [3]. - Flink and WarpStream showed significant growth, with 70% sequential ARR growth and 8× consumption growth, respectively [4]. - Confluent's position as a real-time "data context layer" for AI has led to adoption by over 100 AI-native customers, with AWS and MongoDB contributing 25% of new business [4]. Future Outlook - Management anticipates a minor Q4 headwind from an AI-native client shifting workloads on-prem but maintains a raised full-year guidance with FY25 revenue expected between $1.113 billion and $1.114 billion and 7% operating margins [5]. - The company is focused on healthy pipeline growth, rising profitability, and strategic momentum in AI and streaming analytics, reinforcing its role in the data infrastructure ecosystem [5].

Streaming Industry Overview - Streaming stocks are shares of publicly traded companies primarily delivering audio, video, or live content over the internet, with notable examples including Netflix and Spotify [2] - Investors focus on metrics such as subscriber growth, engagement, churn, content, and marketing spend, as these factors drive recurring revenue and influence valuations and volatility [2] Company Summaries Spotify Technology (SPOT) - Spotify Technology S.A. provides audio streaming subscription services globally, operating through two segments: Premium and Ad-Supported [3] - The Premium segment offers unlimited online and offline streaming access to its music and podcast catalog without commercial breaks [3] Confluent (CFLT) - Confluent, Inc. operates a data streaming platform both in the U.S. and internationally, providing platforms for customers to connect applications, systems, and data layers [3] - Key offerings include Confluent Cloud, a managed cloud-native software-as-a-service, and Confluent Platform, an enterprise-grade self-managed software [3] Roku (ROKU) - Roku, Inc. operates a TV streaming platform in the U.S. and internationally, divided into two segments: Platform and Devices [4] - The Platform segment includes digital advertising services, media and entertainment promotional spending, and revenue shares from streaming services [4] Franco-Nevada (FNV) - Franco-Nevada Corporation is a gold-focused royalty and streaming company operating in various regions including South America, Central America, and the U.S. [5] - The company manages a portfolio focused on precious metals and engages in the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids [5] Logitech International (LOGI) - Logitech International S.A. designs, manufactures, and markets software-enabled hardware solutions for gaming, streaming, and other applications [6] - Product offerings include gaming peripherals, streaming services, and various types of speakers and webcams [6][7]

Core Insights - Confluent, Inc. is a key player in the data streaming industry, known for its Confluent Cloud platform which has experienced significant growth [1] - Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow has set a price target of $27 for Confluent, indicating a potential upside of 22.28% from its current trading price of $22.08 [2][6] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Confluent reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.10, representing a 30% earnings surprise and an improvement from $0.10 EPS in the same quarter last year [3][6] - The company achieved revenues of $298.52 million for the quarter ending September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.22% and showing a significant increase from $250.2 million in the same period last year [4][6] Growth Metrics - Confluent Cloud revenue increased by 24% year-over-year, while remaining performance obligations grew by 43% year-over-year, indicating strong customer engagement and consumption growth [5] - Despite a recent stock price decrease of 3.16%, Confluent's market capitalization remains robust at approximately $7.61 billion, reflecting investor confidence in its long-term potential [5]

Core Insights - Confluent Inc reported better-than-expected earnings for Q3, with earnings of 13 cents per share, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of 10 cents per share [1] - The company achieved quarterly sales of $298.537 million, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $292.871 million [1] - Confluent raised its FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance from $0.36 to a range of $0.39-$0.40 [1] Financial Performance - Confluent experienced a 24% year-over-year growth in Confluent Cloud revenue [2] - There was a 43% year-over-year growth acceleration in remaining performance obligations, indicating strong consumption growth and customer commitment [2] Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, Confluent shares increased by 11% to $24.51 in pre-market trading [2] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Morgan Stanley maintained an Equal-Weight rating and raised the price target from $25 to $27 [5] - Piper Sandler maintained an Overweight rating and increased the price target from $27 to $28 [5] - Baird maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $20 to $26 [5] - Stephens & Co. maintained an Overweight rating and boosted the price target from $25 to $29 [5] - Barclays maintained an Overweight rating and increased the price target from $24 to $27 [5]