新华财经北京2月3日电债市周二（2月3日）依旧震荡为主，多空交织之下波动有限，国债期货主力多数 收涨，银行间现券收益率窄幅整理，国债略优于国开债；公开市场单日净回笼2965亿元，短端资金利率 上行。 机构认为，节前债市料将维持震荡态势，10年期国债收益率来到1.8%重要关口附近后，止盈压力在增 加。跨月之后，资金拆借结构性矛盾缓解，不过存款类机构拆借价格仍未完全松动。央行春节前应该还 会出手呵护市场，关注买断式逆回购及14天逆回购等情况。 【行情跟踪】 【一级市场】 财政部28天、182天期国债加权中标收益率分别为1.0959%、1.2755%，边际中标收益率分别为 1.1612%、1.3324%，全场倍数分别为3.49、2.72，边际倍数分别为1.11、10.57。 国开行3期金融债中标收益率均低于中债估值。国开行2年、5年、10年期金融债中标收益率分别为 1.4944%、1.7258%、1.9501%，全场倍数分别为4.1、3.13、2.48，边际倍数分别为6.43、1.04、1.36。 【资金面】 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2月3日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1055亿元7天期逆回购操作，操 作利率1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by the stock market, with short-term bonds performing slightly better than long-term bonds, and the overall liquidity remaining manageable under the central bank's guidance [1] Market Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a slight increase, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.02% to 112.84, and the 10-year main contract also up by 0.02% to 108.23 [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond decreased by 0.2 basis points to 2.2210%, while the yield on the 10-year government bond increased by 0.4 basis points to 1.9020% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields varied, with the 2-year yield rising by 3.18 basis points to 3.532% and the 30-year yield falling by 1.12 basis points to 4.824% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 0.8 basis points to 2.047% [4] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 91-day, 182-day, and 7-year government bonds at 1.2352%, 1.3121%, and 1.66% respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.36, 2.64, and 3.22 [5] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 260 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan for the day [6] - The Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate falling to 1.267%, the lowest since August 2023, while the 1-month rate rose to 1.579%, the highest since July 2025 [6] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted an improvement in bond market sentiment, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing below 1.85%, and expectations for a "cross-year market" revival [8] - China International Capital Corporation highlighted that credit bond demand may remain stable despite potential pressures on wealth management products as the year-end approaches [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has returned to a weak state, with government bond futures closing down across the board, and interbank bond yields mostly rising slightly by around 0.5 basis points [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.51% to 113.89, the 10-year main contract down 0.07% to 107.98, the 5-year main contract down 0.06% to 105.77, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02% to 102.388 [2]. - The interbank major rate bond yields showed a weak consolidation, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.05 basis points to 1.828% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.52% at 479.58 points, with a total transaction amount of 443.71 billion [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 7.33 basis points to 4.087% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly fell, with the 10-year yield down 1 basis point to 1.867% [3]. - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all increased, with the 10-year French yield rising by 7.5 basis points to 3.482% [3]. Primary Market - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had a successful auction with 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields at 1.5504%, 1.7565%, and 1.9395% respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.22, 2.4, and 2.89 [4]. Liquidity and Funding - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 156.3 billion at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.5 basis points to 1.302% [5]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the introduction of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) could enhance asset liquidity and potentially lead to a revaluation of related assets and companies [6]. - Huachuang Securities highlighted that the central bank's bond purchase volume in November could be a key observation indicator, with expectations that exceeding 100 billion could catalyze a warming of monetary policy expectations [7].

Market Overview - The China convertible bond index increased by 0.52% during the week of November 10 to November 14, 2025, compared to a previous increase of 0.86% [6] - The overall index for the year-to-date shows a gain of 18.61% for convertible bonds and 23.61% for the broader market index [6] - High-rated bonds (AAA) decreased by 0.61%, while medium-rated bonds (AA) saw an increase of 0.56%, indicating a preference for medium-rated securities [6] Convertible Bond Performance - The average price of convertible bonds reached 133.30 yuan, with a price percentile of 99.28% [8] - The average conversion value was 105.52 yuan, with a percentile of 95.81% [8] - The average conversion premium stood at 27.12%, with a percentile of 18.21% [8] Investment Strategy - The convertible bond market experienced slight growth while the equity market declined, suggesting a shift in investor preference [9] - There is a noted scarcity of high-quality convertible bonds, leading to a need for careful selection and diversification in investment strategies [9] - It is recommended to assess convertible bond terms and underlying stock conditions to balance risk and return effectively [9]

Core Insights - Global stocks are outperforming US stocks despite US markets reaching all-time highs, indicating a complex market dynamic [3][4] - The long-term performance of US stocks remains strong, suggesting that short-term underperformance should not deter investors [5][6] - Increased interest from American investors in international stocks is evident, with a significant portion of the population participating in stock investments [6] Global Stock Performance - The Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-US Index Fund (VEU) serves as a benchmark for global stocks, showing that while US stocks may lag temporarily, they have a strong historical lead [4][5] - International stocks often provide higher dividend yields compared to US firms, with Canadian stocks yielding 2.6% compared to the S&P 500's 1.2% [7] Investment Strategies - Active management is recommended for international stocks to avoid poor-quality companies and those in unstable regions [10] - Three high-yield closed-end funds (CEFs) are highlighted for their performance and ability to provide dividends exceeding 8% [11] Fund Analysis - The Calamos Global Dynamic Income Fund (CHW) offers an 8.1% annualized yield, combining convertible bonds with stock-like upside [12][13] - The LMP Capital & Income Fund (SCD) provides a 9.3% annualized yield, focusing on a mix of income-producing assets and capital-gains stocks [14][15] - The Virtus NFJ Dividend Value Fund (NFJ) generates a 9.3% dividend while blending American and foreign firms, utilizing a covered-call strategy for additional income [16][17] Market Trends - Discounts on these funds have narrowed recently, indicating increased investor interest and potential for share price appreciation [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Bank of Nanjing is maintained at BUY with a target price of RMB 13.29, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the closing price of RMB 11.35 as of 9 June 2025 [1][6]. Core Insights - The conditional redemption clause of the convertible bonds (CBs) has been triggered, which is expected to enhance the capital strength of Bank of Nanjing and support further business expansion [2]. - The unconverted balance of the CBs is approximately RMB 5.2 billion, accounting for about 4% of the company's total market capitalization, suggesting limited share-capital dilution while maintaining a solid dividend profile and growth potential [3]. - Bank of Nanjing has demonstrated steady earnings growth, with a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit of 6.5% and 7.1% respectively in 1Q25, outperforming peers [4]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 45,160 million in 2023 to RMB 61,209 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.27% [12]. - Net profit attributed to the parent is expected to increase from RMB 18,502 million in 2023 to RMB 26,113 million in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [12]. - The estimated dividend yield for 2025 is 5.02%, which remains attractive even after accounting for potential dilution from the CB conversion [3][12]. Valuation Metrics - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.86, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.10x, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [10][12]. - The book value per share (BVPS) is estimated at RMB 14.77 for 2025, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.77x, suggesting that the stock is undervalued relative to its intrinsic value [10][12]. - The core capital adequacy ratio is expected to improve by 0.57 percentage points to 9.46% following the full conversion of the CBs, enhancing the bank's capital position [2].