新华财经北京12月24日电（王菁）债市周三（12月24日）被股市小幅施压，银行间现券震荡盘整，短债 略优于长债，国债期货主力也呈现窄幅整理态势；资金面呈结构性分化，跨年需求升温非银融入成本走 高。 亚洲市场方面，日债收益率普遍回升，10年期日债收益率上行0.8BP至2.047%。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间12月23日，10年期法债收益率跌5.1BPs报3.559%，10年期德债收益率跌 3.6BPs报2.860%，10年期意债收益率跌4.9BPs报3.547%，10年期西债收益率跌4.6BPs报3.284%。其他市 场方面，10年期英债收益率跌2.7BPs报4.507%。 【一级市场】 财政部91天、182天、7年期国债加权中标收益率分别为1.2352%、1.3121%、1.66%，边际中标收益率分 别为1.2957%、1.3527%、1.69%，全场倍数分别为2.36、2.64、3.22，边际倍数分别为1.77、1.33、8.8。 机构认为，午间一度浮现降准传言，带动收益率一波快速回落，但影响短暂，随后重归震荡走势。跨年 资金需求有所升温，非银融入价走高相对明显，随着需求集中释放以及年末分层压力，跨年资金利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has returned to a weak state, with government bond futures closing down across the board, and interbank bond yields mostly rising slightly by around 0.5 basis points [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.51% to 113.89, the 10-year main contract down 0.07% to 107.98, the 5-year main contract down 0.06% to 105.77, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02% to 102.388 [2]. - The interbank major rate bond yields showed a weak consolidation, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.05 basis points to 1.828% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.52% at 479.58 points, with a total transaction amount of 443.71 billion [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 7.33 basis points to 4.087% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly fell, with the 10-year yield down 1 basis point to 1.867% [3]. - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all increased, with the 10-year French yield rising by 7.5 basis points to 3.482% [3]. Primary Market - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had a successful auction with 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields at 1.5504%, 1.7565%, and 1.9395% respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.22, 2.4, and 2.89 [4]. Liquidity and Funding - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 156.3 billion at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.5 basis points to 1.302% [5]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the introduction of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) could enhance asset liquidity and potentially lead to a revaluation of related assets and companies [6]. - Huachuang Securities highlighted that the central bank's bond purchase volume in November could be a key observation indicator, with expectations that exceeding 100 billion could catalyze a warming of monetary policy expectations [7].

Market Overview - The China convertible bond index increased by 0.52% during the week of November 10 to November 14, 2025, compared to a previous increase of 0.86% [6] - The overall index for the year-to-date shows a gain of 18.61% for convertible bonds and 23.61% for the broader market index [6] - High-rated bonds (AAA) decreased by 0.61%, while medium-rated bonds (AA) saw an increase of 0.56%, indicating a preference for medium-rated securities [6] Convertible Bond Performance - The average price of convertible bonds reached 133.30 yuan, with a price percentile of 99.28% [8] - The average conversion value was 105.52 yuan, with a percentile of 95.81% [8] - The average conversion premium stood at 27.12%, with a percentile of 18.21% [8] Investment Strategy - The convertible bond market experienced slight growth while the equity market declined, suggesting a shift in investor preference [9] - There is a noted scarcity of high-quality convertible bonds, leading to a need for careful selection and diversification in investment strategies [9] - It is recommended to assess convertible bond terms and underlying stock conditions to balance risk and return effectively [9]

Core Insights - Global stocks are outperforming US stocks despite US markets reaching all-time highs, indicating a complex market dynamic [3][4] - The long-term performance of US stocks remains strong, suggesting that short-term underperformance should not deter investors [5][6] - Increased interest from American investors in international stocks is evident, with a significant portion of the population participating in stock investments [6] Global Stock Performance - The Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-US Index Fund (VEU) serves as a benchmark for global stocks, showing that while US stocks may lag temporarily, they have a strong historical lead [4][5] - International stocks often provide higher dividend yields compared to US firms, with Canadian stocks yielding 2.6% compared to the S&P 500's 1.2% [7] Investment Strategies - Active management is recommended for international stocks to avoid poor-quality companies and those in unstable regions [10] - Three high-yield closed-end funds (CEFs) are highlighted for their performance and ability to provide dividends exceeding 8% [11] Fund Analysis - The Calamos Global Dynamic Income Fund (CHW) offers an 8.1% annualized yield, combining convertible bonds with stock-like upside [12][13] - The LMP Capital & Income Fund (SCD) provides a 9.3% annualized yield, focusing on a mix of income-producing assets and capital-gains stocks [14][15] - The Virtus NFJ Dividend Value Fund (NFJ) generates a 9.3% dividend while blending American and foreign firms, utilizing a covered-call strategy for additional income [16][17] Market Trends - Discounts on these funds have narrowed recently, indicating increased investor interest and potential for share price appreciation [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Bank of Nanjing is maintained at BUY with a target price of RMB 13.29, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the closing price of RMB 11.35 as of 9 June 2025 [1][6]. Core Insights - The conditional redemption clause of the convertible bonds (CBs) has been triggered, which is expected to enhance the capital strength of Bank of Nanjing and support further business expansion [2]. - The unconverted balance of the CBs is approximately RMB 5.2 billion, accounting for about 4% of the company's total market capitalization, suggesting limited share-capital dilution while maintaining a solid dividend profile and growth potential [3]. - Bank of Nanjing has demonstrated steady earnings growth, with a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit of 6.5% and 7.1% respectively in 1Q25, outperforming peers [4]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 45,160 million in 2023 to RMB 61,209 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.27% [12]. - Net profit attributed to the parent is expected to increase from RMB 18,502 million in 2023 to RMB 26,113 million in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [12]. - The estimated dividend yield for 2025 is 5.02%, which remains attractive even after accounting for potential dilution from the CB conversion [3][12]. Valuation Metrics - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.86, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.10x, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [10][12]. - The book value per share (BVPS) is estimated at RMB 14.77 for 2025, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.77x, suggesting that the stock is undervalued relative to its intrinsic value [10][12]. - The core capital adequacy ratio is expected to improve by 0.57 percentage points to 9.46% following the full conversion of the CBs, enhancing the bank's capital position [2].