Market Analysis by covering: Copper Futures, Natural Gas Futures. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 10, 2025 [1][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 92,220, LME price is not given, and the three - month price in China is 91,170 with an LME price of 11,470 and a ratio of 8.00. Spot import and export profit data are not provided [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 23,190, LME price is 3,264 with a ratio of 7.10. Three - month price in China is 23,080, LME price is 3,102 with a ratio of 5.54. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.43, and the profit is - 4,325.31 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 21,880, LME price is 2,826 with a ratio of 7.75. Three - month price in China is 21,825, LME price is 2,858 with a ratio of 7.64. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.31, and the profit is - 1,606.98 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 120,300, LME price is 14,620 with a ratio of 8.23. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.12, and the profit is - 942.40 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 17,150, LME price is 1,942 with a ratio of 8.80. Three - month price in China is 17,165, LME price is 1,992 with a ratio of 11.59. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.67, and the profit is 251.19 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 1,860, - 1,780, - 1,750, and - 1,850 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 567, 1,032, 1,505, and 1,979 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 200, - 190, - 175, and - 175 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 219, 345, 470, and 595 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 475, - 425, - 380, and - 340 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 222, 346, 469, and 592 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 115, - 120, - 120, and - 135 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 211, 319, 426, and 534 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 380, - 110, 20, and 260 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 890, and the theoretical spread is 6,436 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Domestic (Shanghai)**: The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc are 3.95, 4.18, 5.31, 0.95, 1.27, and 0.74 respectively [5] - **LME**: The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc are 3.72, 4.02, 5.81, 0.92, 1.44, and 0.64 respectively [5] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 785 and - 1,075 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 278 and 516 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 80 and - 120 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 75 and 210 (also 150 and 212 in another record) [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 135 and 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 115 and 229 [5]

Market Analysis by covering: Gold Spot US Dollar, Silver Spot US Dollar, Copper Futures, Crude Oil WTI Futures. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific investment suggestions for each metal: - Copper: Recommended to gradually buy on dips, with a short - term pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton and support range of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [3]. - Zinc: Consider buying on dips and selling out - of - the - money put options. The upper pressure is around 22,800 - 23,000, and short - term support is around 22,300 - 22,400 [4]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: For aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; for alumina, short positions should be held cautiously; for recycled aluminum alloy, take a bullish approach [5]. - Tin: Suggested to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 290,000 - 300,000 and a support range of 260,000 - 270,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - Lead: Consider a double - selling option strategy, with short - term support around 17,300 - 17,400 and upper pressure around 17,800 - 18,000 [8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, wait and see the support at the lower range and consider selling out - of - the - money put options on dips; for stainless steel, it is in a weak shock, with support around 12,500 - 12,600 and upper pressure around 13,000 - 13,200 [9]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall upward trend of the non - ferrous sector remains unchanged, but the weak manufacturing data in China and the US and the uncertainty of interest rate cuts have affected the upward pace of non - ferrous metals. The recent rebound of the US dollar index has put pressure on risk assets [12]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations. For example, copper has supply constraints and is expected to enter a demand peak season; zinc has a strong mine end and weak demand; aluminum has production capacity changes and a transition from peak to off - peak season; tin has supply shortages and limited demand recovery; lead has supply recovery and demand decline; nickel and stainless steel have weak supply - demand fundamentals [14][15][16][17][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The overall non - ferrous sector is still in an upward trend, but the focus has shifted from macro - narrative to real demand. The weak manufacturing data in China and the US and the uncertainty of interest rate cuts have affected the upward pace. The rebound of the US dollar index has put pressure on risk assets. The voices of the Fed officials after the October resolution are divided on interest rate cuts [12]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal**: See the content in the "Report Industry Investment Rating" section above [3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Copper closed at 85,670 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.08%; zinc closed at 22,650 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.09%; aluminum closed at 21,395 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.33%; alumina closed at 2,772 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.07%; tin closed at 282,090 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.58%; lead closed at 17,475 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34%; nickel closed at 120,030 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.28%; stainless steel closed at 12,535 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.08%; cast aluminum alloy closed at 20,830 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.62% [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report provides the latest position analysis of non - ferrous metals, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, net long - position changes, net short - position changes, and influencing factors of various varieties such as Shanghai lead, industrial silicon, alumina, etc. [21][22]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report lists the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report presents various charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc. For example, for copper, there are charts of exchange copper inventory changes and LME copper inventory; for zinc, there are charts of zinc inventory changes and zinc concentrate processing fee changes [25][27]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report shows various charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio changes, the spread between Shanghai copper and London copper, zinc's Shanghai - London ratio changes, etc. [54][56]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides various charts related to non - ferrous metals options, such as copper option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, etc. [72][73].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 27, 2025, to provide data support for potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 27, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86,475, the LME price was 10,922, and the ratio was 7.88; the domestic three - month price was 87,680, the LME price was 10,948, and the ratio was 7.89. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.09 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,190, the LME price was 3,216, and the ratio was 6.90; the domestic three - month price was 22,385, the LME price was 3,029, and the ratio was 5.78. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.51, with a loss of 5,172.40 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,110, the LME price was 2,884, and the ratio was 7.32; the domestic three - month price was 21,245, the LME price was 2,881, and the ratio was 7.35. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.36, with a loss of 2,991.35 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 124,100, the LME price was 15,131, and the ratio was 8.20. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.19, with a loss of 1,226.75 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,275, the LME price was 1,980, and the ratio was 8.74; the domestic three - month price was 17,550, the LME price was 2,017, and the ratio was 11.03. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.82, with a loss of 158.57 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 27, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 1,690, 1,650, 1,610, and 1,650 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 532, 962, 1,401, and 1,841 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 55, 85, 120, and 135, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 335, 456, and 576 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 90, 110, 95, and 80, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 334, 452, and 570 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, - 65, - 75, and - 70, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 322, 431, and 540 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1,000, 1,160, 1,330, and 1,600 [4]. - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 10, and the theoretical spread was 5,878 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 350 and 1,340 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 338 and 1,063 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 110 and 165, and the theoretical spreads were 180 and 309 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 340 and 320, and the theoretical spreads were 202 and 317 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 27, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.92, 4.13, 5.00, 0.95, 1.21, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous) were 3.63, 3.83, 5.43, 0.95, 1.42, and 0.67 [5].

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $68, or 0.64%, closing at $10,623.50 per ton due to a strong dollar and signs of weak demand, although a decline in LME inventories provided some support [1][4] - LME registered copper inventories decreased to 127,350 tons, the lowest level since July, which helped to mitigate the price decline [4] - The copper premium at Yangshan Port dropped by 38% over the past month to $36 per ton, the lowest since July, indicating reduced buying interest from China [4] Group 2 - LME zinc prices increased by $9.5, or 0.32%, closing at $2,988.00 per ton, reflecting a tight supply situation [4][5] - LME zinc inventories fell to 37,275 tons, the lowest level since the beginning of 2023, despite expectations of a surplus in the global zinc market for this year and next [6]

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a buy-on-dip approach considering the ongoing tightness in the mining end and the growing infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 per ton for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold at low prices in the long term while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1] - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export profit, and increased macro - uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider gradually taking profits on long - short spreads between domestic and foreign markets and look for reverse spread opportunities in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, but there are still potential price - support factors from the Indonesian policy side [3][4] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro - trade friction uncertainty and some price - support motivation from the Indonesian policy side [9] - For lead, the lead price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the range of 17,000 - 17,400 next week, with weakening demand and uncertain inventory drawdown in October [13][14] - For tin, follow the macro sentiment in the short term and consider holding at low prices near the cost line in the long term, paying attention to the expected changes in supply and demand after October [17] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is balanced in Q4, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the long term [18] - For lithium carbonate, the price has high elasticity after supply - side disturbance speculation is realized and strong downward support before the disturbance, with a general de - stocking trend [18] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the spot premium of SHFE copper changed by 30, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased by 140, and the SHFE copper warehouse receipt increased by 8,236. LME copper closed above $10,300 per ton on Friday, down 4.5% [1] - **Market Analysis**: The current tariff conflict may not be as severe as the Qingming Festival disturbance. There is still room for negotiation. On the fundamental side, there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week, and the downstream's price - fixing and receiving sentiment is expected to increase next week after the price drop. The copper cable's recent start - up is significantly different from that of the aluminum cable [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 30, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 4,975 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The operating capacity is increasing slightly. The demand for photovoltaic components has stabilized, but there is seasonal inventory accumulation. The global economic recovery is showing signs, but the Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, leading to a divergence in the internal and external market trends [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 200, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 250 [2] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose this week. The domestic TC decreased, and the imported TC increased. The domestic mine is expected to be tighter from Q4 to Q1 next year, while the overseas mine had an unexpected increase in Q2. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average. The export window has opened [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the SHFE nickel spot price increased by 400, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 3,498 [3] - **Market Analysis**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing overseas. The Indonesian policy still has price - support motivation [3][4] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel decreased by 20 [9] - **Market Analysis**: The steel mill's production in October increased slightly. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The cost remains stable, and the inventory increased during the holiday [9] Lead - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the lead price increased due to macro factors. The LME lead inventory increased by 8,225 [13][14] - **Market Analysis**: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The recycled lead production is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The demand may weaken after the National Day holiday. The market expects a shift from peak season to off - season in October [13][14] Tin - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the tin price increased due to macro factors. The LME tin inventory increased by 190 [17] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic smelting plants have reduced production, and the overseas supply is expected to recover in October. The domestic market is in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold at low prices in the long term [17] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 50, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 840 [18] - **Market Analysis**: The Xinjiang enterprises are resuming production, and the Sichuan and Yunnan operations are stable. The supply - demand is balanced in Q4, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom in the long term [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 2,104 [18] - **Market Analysis**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated this week. The overseas mines are firm on prices, and the salt plants are less accepting of high - priced lithium ore. The market is in an over - capacity stage, but there is de - stocking due to seasonal and demand factors [18]

Group 1 - The article provides a market analysis covering various financial instruments including the US Dollar, Chinese Yuan, Copper Futures, Brent Oil Futures, and Crude Oil WTI Futures [1] Group 2 - The analysis highlights the performance trends of the US Dollar against the Chinese Yuan, indicating fluctuations that may impact trade dynamics [1] - It discusses the current state of Copper Futures, noting price movements that reflect supply and demand factors in the market [1] - The report examines Brent Oil Futures and Crude Oil WTI Futures, analyzing their price trends and implications for the energy sector [1]

Core Insights - The analysis focuses on exploiting recurring intraday movements in the metals futures markets, specifically Gold, Silver, Copper, and Platinum, which are characterized by high liquidity and wide circulation [1][2] - The strategy employed is based on "bias" strategies that capitalize on market behaviors that tend to repeat during specific time frames, rather than relying on technical indicators [2][4] Market Analysis - The gold market serves as the benchmark for the entire metals sector, with the analysis indicating a consistent pattern of weakness during night hours followed by a rebound in the afternoon [6][4] - The operational rules for the strategy involve entering a long position at 10:00 a.m. and a short position at 2:00 a.m. the following day, with trades alternating between long and short positions [7][10] Performance Results - The backtest results for the bias trading strategy on Gold show a total of 8,071 trades, with a winning percentage of 50.96% and an average winning trade of $784.49 [12] - The strategy's performance is also tested on Silver, Platinum, and Copper, revealing that similar bias patterns are present across these metals, confirming the hypothesis of persistent patterns in the sector [14][13] Future Development - The analysis suggests potential improvements to the bias trading system, including the application of operational filters and the introduction of stop-loss and take-profit mechanisms to enhance risk management [18][20] - Multi-asset validation is emphasized as a crucial aspect of the strategy, as testing across related markets helps to distinguish genuine trading edges from random results [22] Conclusion - Intraday biases present valuable operational insights and opportunities for developing automated trading systems, with the goal of achieving a sufficiently large average trade to make the strategy viable for live trading [24]

Group 1 - The article provides a market analysis covering various commodities including Gold Spot in US Dollar, Copper Futures, US Coffee C Futures, and Brent Oil Futures [1] Group 2 - The analysis highlights the current trends and price movements in these commodities, which are essential for investors to make informed decisions [1]