2026 could be a pivotal year for Zura Bio Ltd. (ZURA), with key data readouts for its lead investigational drug expected to significantly influence the company's strategic direction and market position.Zura is a clinical-stage, multi-asset immunology company advancing treatments for immune-mediated diseases where there is an unmet medical need. Its lead product candidate is Tibulizumab, a potential first-in-class dual-pathway biologic designed to target cytokines IL-17A and BAFF. Tibulizumab is currently b ...

Key Points Novartis and Gilead Sciences have businesses that can perform well during downturns. Novartis has an extensive portfolio of medicines across many therapeutic areas. Gilead Sciences leads the HIV market and is expanding its oncology lineup. 10 stocks we like better than Novartis › Equity markets experienced significant volatility this year. Many investors feared that President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies would plunge the economy into a recession and lead to a full-blown sto ...

直接面向消费者(DTC)的销售模式近期加速发展，礼来(LLY.US)、辉瑞(PFE.US)和阿斯利康(AZN.US)等 药企已陆续上线自有平台。当天，瑞士制药巨头诺华(NOVN.US) 宣布，将于11月1日在美国推出直销平 台，首批产品为抗炎药Cosentyx，现金支付患者可享受55%的价格折扣，并计划未来扩展至更多产品及 直销雇主模式。 此外，PhRMA补充称，制药商已宣布总额5000亿美元 的美国本土生产及基础设施投资，预计将创造1.2 万亿美元的经济产出，并新增10万个以上就业岗位。 智通财经APP获悉，周一，美国制药行业游说组织PhRMA表示，将于2025年1月推出全新网站 AmericasMedicines.com，帮助患者直接从制药商处购买处方药，从而绕过药房福利管理公司(PBMs)等 中间环节，以降低药价并简化购药流程。 PhRMA表示，该网站将允许药企直接列出可购买的药品，并为患者提供更优惠的价格选择和减少获取 药物的障碍。这一举措是在特朗普政府不断施压制药行业降低美国药价背景下推出的。 美国总统特朗普今年7月已向17家大型制药公司发函，要求它们将美国处方药价格降至与其他发达国家 水平一致，并 ...

Market Overview - U.S. equities opened positively on September 29, 2025, aiming to recover from previous week's losses, with major indexes showing resilience and gains at the start of trading [1][2] - The S&P 500 rose to 6672 points, gaining 0.42% from the previous session, while September has been a winning month overall with the S&P 500 up 2.8%, Dow up 1.5%, and Nasdaq up 2.9% [2] Economic Indicators - Personal spending data indicates resilient final demand, with second-quarter GDP growth revised up to 3.8%, but core inflation in services remains a concern for the Federal Reserve [3] - The upcoming September jobs report is expected to show 43,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, providing critical insights into the labor market [5] Corporate Developments - Electronic Arts (EA) is set to be acquired by an investor consortium in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $55 billion, representing a 25% premium to EA's unaffected share price [8] - Baker Hughes (BKR) received a significant award from Petrobras for subsea tree systems, expected to boost Brazil's offshore energy sector [12] - Apple (AAPL) shares gained 2.1% on reports of a new AI-powered Siri app, indicating ongoing innovation [12] - Intel (INTC) climbed 3.4% amid speculation of a White House initiative to reduce reliance on overseas chip production [12] - Boeing (BA) advanced 3.6% after regulators restored some oversight powers, signaling increased confidence [12] - AstraZeneca (AZN) plans to list its shares directly on the New York Stock Exchange, replacing its existing ADR listing on Nasdaq [12] - Novartis (NVS) is launching a direct-to-patient platform for its Cosentyx drug in the U.S. [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company is taking steps to reduce drug prices in response to the upcoming deadline set by the Trump administration [1] Group 1 - The company is identified as a major player in the pharmaceutical industry [1] - The price-cutting initiative aligns with broader industry trends as other pharmaceutical giants are also making similar moves [1] - The actions are being taken ahead of a regulatory deadline, indicating a proactive approach to compliance [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs downgraded Novartis' stock rating from "Neutral" to "Sell" and slightly reduced the target price from 95.00 CHF to 94.00 CHF, indicating a bearish outlook for the stock over the next 12 months [1] - Novartis' current trading price is around 101 CHF in the European market, while its ADR in the US market is reported at 127.70 USD, with a year-to-date return of 36%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index [1] - Concerns about Novartis' growth rate were raised, with expectations of a structural decline in overall growth due to increased competition in the generic drug market after several years of significant sales growth [1][2] Group 2 - The full launch of the generic version of "Entresto" is expected to challenge Novartis' earnings momentum, leading to a relatively quiet news flow for the company over the next 12-18 months [2] - Goldman Sachs believes that the recent valuation multiple expansion for Novartis does not adequately reflect forward-looking growth risks, suggesting a potential decline in valuation [2] - Morgan Stanley upgraded Novartis' stock rating from "Underweight" to "Equal Weight" and raised the target price from 91 USD to 100 USD, reflecting a slight improvement in the company's mid-term growth outlook [2] Group 3 - Novartis is a global innovative pharmaceutical giant headquartered in Basel, Switzerland, focusing on prescription drugs and has divested its generic drug business [3] - The company is one of the largest multinational pharmaceutical companies globally, competing with major players like Roche, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, Merck, and AstraZeneca [3] - Novartis' key therapeutic areas include oncology, cardiology, immunology, and neuroscience, with core products such as Entresto, Cosentyx, Kesimpta, Kisqali, and Pluvicto [3]

Summary of Novartis (NOVN.S) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Novartis (NOVN.S) - **Market Cap**: SFr199.4 billion / $250.5 billion - **Enterprise Value**: SFr215.4 billion / $270.7 billion - **Current Price**: SFr101.78 - **12-Month Price Target**: SFr94.00, indicating a downside of approximately 7.6% from current levels [1][2] Industry Context - The EU Large Pharma sector has fragmented into three categories: - 'Growth Stocks' (e.g., Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca) - 'Value Stocks/Innovation Laggards' (e.g., Roche, Novartis, Sanofi, GSK) - 'Special Situations' (e.g., Bayer) [1] Core Insights - **Performance**: Novartis has been the best performer among 'Value Stocks/Innovation Laggards' over the past 1, 3, and 5 years, with a significant share price increase of approximately 31% since early 2023 [1][17]. - **Valuation Concerns**: The current valuation of Novartis, trading at about 14x 2026E PE, is viewed as stretched, especially given the anticipated impact of generic competition [1][16]. - **Earnings Momentum**: The earnings momentum story is expected to stall post-launch of Entresto generics, which have already captured a 35% market share shortly after their introduction [1][33]. Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024: $50.32 billion - 2025E: $54.80 billion - 2026E: $56.51 billion - 2027E: $59.09 billion [3][11] - **EPS Growth**: - 2024: $7.74 - 2025E: $8.89 - 2026E: $9.13 - 2027E: $9.98 [3][11] Risks and Challenges - **Generic Competition**: The company faces significant risks from generic competition, particularly with the launch of Entresto generics, which is expected to lead to a structural reset in growth rates from high single-digit/low double-digit (HSD/LDD) to low single-digit/mid-single-digit (LSD/MSD) growth [1][14][16]. - **Patent Expirations**: Novartis has approximately $40 billion in peak sales at risk due to upcoming patent expirations, with significant revenue declines expected from 2030 onwards [1][14][25]. - **Pipeline Gaps**: The pipeline is not expected to fully offset the revenue losses from patent expirations, with a projected revenue drop to $45 billion by 2036 if current trends continue [1][28]. Other Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: Despite recent outperformance, the stock's current multiple does not adequately reflect the risks associated with upcoming patent cliffs and generic competition [1][16][44]. - **M&A Potential**: Future M&A activities could provide a buffer against the impending patent cliffs, but this is contingent on the quality and price of potential acquisitions [1][15]. - **Pipeline Developments**: Limited value-driving catalysts are expected in the near term, with key clinical trials scheduled for 2026 that could influence future performance [1][15][49]. Conclusion - The downgrade to a "Sell" rating reflects concerns that Novartis' recent stock performance and multiple expansion do not adequately account for the significant risks posed by generic competition and patent expirations. The new target price of CHF94 suggests an 8% downside from current levels, indicating a cautious outlook for the company in the near to medium term [1][16].

Industry Overview - The biopharmaceutical industry is experiencing challenges due to ongoing tariffs and drug pricing pressures from the Trump administration, leading to a 5.7% decline in the combined market capitalisation of the top 20 global biopharmaceutical companies, from $3.92 trillion on March 31, 2025, to $3.70 trillion on June 30, 2025 [1] Company Performances - Alnylam achieved the largest market capitalisation growth of 21.8%, reaching $42.5 billion, driven by strong sales of its RNA interference therapeutic Amvuttra, which saw a 59% year-on-year increase in global sales to $310 million in Q1 2025 [2] - Novartis reported a 7.7% increase in market capitalisation in Q2 2025, bolstered by strong sales of blockbuster drugs such as Entresto, Cosentyx, Kesimpta, and Kisqali, along with the acquisition of Regulus Therapeutics for $1.7 billion, enhancing its renal disease portfolio [3] - Bristol Myers Squibb experienced the largest decline in market capitalisation at 22.9% due to mixed Q1 2025 financial results and negative trial outcomes, particularly the failure of its Phase III ARISE trial for Cobenfy [4] - Regeneron and Sanofi saw market capitalisation declines of 18.7% and 13.8%, respectively, following the failure of their partnered drug itepekimab in the Phase III AERIFY-2 trial, which aimed to reduce exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [5]

Financial Performance - Novartis shares experienced a decline of nearly 3% despite exceeding expectations for both top and bottom lines [1] - The company has raised its guidance for the 10th consecutive quarter, demonstrating strong sales and core operating income performance exceeding 20% [3] - Key growth drivers, including breast cancer drug Kisqali and prostate cancer drug, are performing above expectations [3] Market Dynamics & Strategy - The US policy environment is creating an overhang on the sector, impacting stock performance [2] - Novartis believes its build-up of U S inventories will help mitigate the impact of tariffs this year [1] - Cosentyx is still growing in the mid-single digits and on its way to becoming an $8 billion medicine [6] - The company aims to balance patient costs and affordability with investments in innovative medicines, especially considering competition from China [8] Leadership Transition - Harry Kirsch will step down as CFO after 13 years, which is considered normal for a company of Novartis's size [4][6]

Core Insights - Novartis AG reported better-than-expected Q2 2025 results, with core earnings of $2.42 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.38 and up from $1.97 a year ago, driven by strong sales growth [1][6] - Revenues reached $14.05 billion, a 12% increase from the previous year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.04 billion [1][6] Sales Performance - On a constant currency basis, sales increased by 11%, supported by strong performances from key drugs including Kisqali, Entresto, Kesimpta, Scemblix, Leqvio, and Pluvicto [2][6] - Entresto's sales rose 22% to $2.36 billion, driven by heart failure indications in the U.S. and Europe, and hypertension indications in China and Japan, beating estimates [5][6] - Kisqali's sales surged 64% to $1.2 billion, with strong growth in the U.S. due to recent launches [8] - Kesimpta sales totaled $1.1 billion, up 33%, driven by increased demand [9] - Cosentyx sales increased 6% to $1.6 billion but missed estimates, impacting investor sentiment [7][6] - Pluvicto sales reached $454 million, up 30%, following FDA approval for earlier use, significantly expanding the eligible patient population [12] - Leqvio sales soared 61% to $298 million, driven by steady demand growth [13] Financial Guidance and Strategic Moves - Novartis raised its 2025 core operating income growth outlook to low teens, reflecting strong product and pipeline performance [6][16] - The company initiated a $10 billion share buyback plan, expected to be completed by 2027 [17] - Novartis acquired Regulus Therapeutics Inc. for $0.8 billion, with potential additional payments based on regulatory milestones [21] Management Changes - CFO Harry Kirsch announced his retirement, with Mukul Mehta appointed as the new CFO, effective March 15, 2026 [18]