Novartis (NYSE:NVS) FY Conference January 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsVasant Narasimhan - CEOAngus Liu - JournalistConference Call ParticipantsRichard Vosser - European Pharma AnalystRichard VosserWelcome to the 44th J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. I'm Richard Vosser, European Pharma Analyst at J.P. Morgan. It's my great pleasure to host the CEO of Novartis, Vasant Narasimhan, for this presentation. Just a housekeeping: if you have a question, you can either raise your hand or you can go thr ...

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Core Insights - The article highlights the performance and outlook of several stocks, including Microsoft, Novartis, RTX, and Air T, as analyzed by Zacks Equity Research [1][2]. Microsoft - Microsoft's shares have outperformed the Zacks Computer - Software industry over the past year, with a growth of 6.8% compared to the industry's 2.3% [4]. - The company holds a 25% market share in the cloud sector through Azure and integrates AI strategically via OpenAI, generating over $100 billion in annual operating cash flows with margins exceeding 40% [4]. - Fiscal 2026 net sales are expected to grow by 15.1% from fiscal 2025, but the company faces competition from AWS and Google Cloud, regulatory scrutiny, and rising capital expenditures for AI infrastructure [5]. Novartis - Novartis has outperformed the Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry over the past year, with a growth of 38.8% compared to 14.9% for the industry [6]. - The company has a diverse portfolio, including drugs like Kisqali and Pluvicto, with projected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 37.9% and 43.3% over the next three years [7]. - New drug approvals and label expansions are expected to mitigate the impact of generic competition for key drugs, supported by recent acquisitions and collaborations [8]. RTX - RTX's shares have outperformed the Zacks Aerospace - Defense industry over the past year, with a growth of 54.1% compared to 28.1% for the industry [9]. - The company has a backlog of $251 billion as of September 30, 2025, driven by strong demand for defense products and improving global commercial air traffic [10]. - However, uncertainties from U.S. government import tariffs and ongoing supply-chain challenges pose risks to RTX's performance [11]. Air T - Air T has outperformed the Zacks Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry over the past year, with a growth of 0.8% compared to a decline of 8.4% for the industry [12]. - The company shows operational strength with margin expansion in Commercial Aircraft & Engines and stable cash flow from FedEx feeder operations [12]. - Elevated leverage, rising interest costs, and execution risks across segments constrain earnings durability, with liquidity pressured by volatile working-capital needs [13].

Group 1 - Novartis AG is recognized as a strong slow growth stock, with a projected sales CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2029, supported by recent meetings with TD Cowen [1][2] - Key growth contributors include existing medicines such as Cosentyx, Pluvicto, Kisqali, Leqvio, Kesimpta, and Scemblix, which are expected to mitigate the impact of generic erosion, particularly for Entresto [2] - The company has a robust position in immunology with products like Rhapsido and ianalumab, which are considered "substantially de-risked" and likely to contribute to growth before 2030 [2] Group 2 - Novartis revised its mid-term sales target for 2025-2030 to a CAGR of 5-6% in constant currencies and aims to achieve margins above 40% by 2029, despite a projected 1-2 percentage points dilution from the acquisition of Avidity Biosciences [3] - The company is focused on discovering, developing, and manufacturing innovative treatments aimed at improving and extending lives while addressing serious diseases [4]

Core Insights - Novartis (NVS) projects a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5-6% for sales from 2025 to 2030, with an upgraded sales guidance for 2024-2029 to 6% from 5% due to strong growth drivers and upcoming launches [1][7] - The company faces generic competition for its drug Entresto, but strong performances from products like Kisqali, Kesimpta, Pluvicto, and Scemblix support its momentum [2][12] - Novartis raised its peak sales guidance for Kisqali to over $10 billion from over $8 billion, reflecting its strong performance [3] Sales Performance - Kisqali's sales increased by 68% to $1.33 billion in Q3, driven by growth in the U.S. market, particularly from the early breast cancer indication [4] - Scemblix sales surged by 95% to $358 million in Q3, supported by growth in chronic myeloid leukemia and new indications in the U.S. and Japan [5] - Novartis has eight de-risked, in-market drugs with peak sales potential ranging from $3 billion to $10 billion [5] Regulatory Approvals and Pipeline - Novartis received FDA approval for remibrutinib (Rhapsido) as an oral treatment for chronic spontaneous urticaria, marking it as the first FDA-approved Bruton's tyrosine kinase inhibitor for this condition [8] - The company is focused on four core therapeutic areas: cardiovascular-renal-metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, and oncology [8] - Key pipeline candidates include ianalumab, pelacarsen, OAV101 IT, del-desiran, abelacimab, and farabursen [9] Strategic Acquisitions - Novartis announced the acquisition of Avidity Biosciences for $12 billion to enhance its neuroscience pipeline, with the deal expected to close in the first half of 2026 [10][11] - The acquisition of Tourmaline Bio for $1.4 billion adds a phase III-ready candidate to Novartis' cardiovascular pipeline [13] - Novartis has entered into collaboration agreements with Monte Rosa Therapeutics and Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals to expand its research capabilities [14][15]

Core Insights - Novartis AG projects a stronger growth trajectory through 2030, with expectations for key medicines and a pipeline strategy to sustain momentum into the next decade [1] - The company anticipates a compound annual sales growth rate of 5% to 6% on a constant-currency basis from 2025 to 2030, reflecting higher confidence in long-term demand drivers and upcoming drug launches [2] Financial Performance - Novartis has a strong track record of sales growth and core margin expansion, with core operating income margin reaching 41.2% for the first nine months of 2025, two years ahead of schedule [3][7] - Management expects margins to remain above 40% starting in 2029, even after accounting for dilution from the planned acquisition of Avidity Biosciences Inc [7] Product Pipeline and Sales Projections - The company raised peak sales projections for several core products, including Kisqali, now expected to generate over $10 billion in peak sales, and Scemblix, with guidance lifted to more than $4 billion [5] - Novartis highlights eight commercialized assets with multibillion-dollar potential, forming a stable base for mid-term revenue growth [6] Strategic Initiatives - Over the past two years, Novartis executed more than 30 strategic deals to bolster its pipeline and strengthen business outlook into the mid-2030s [4] - The company is entering a catalyst-heavy period with over 15 potentially submission-enabling readouts expected in the next two years [6] Expansion Plans - Novartis announced plans to expand operations in North Carolina as part of a $23 billion investment in U.S.-based infrastructure, expected to create 700 new jobs and over 3,000 indirect jobs by the end of 2030 [8]

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.56%, S&P 500 futures by 1.17%, and Nasdaq futures by 1.60% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 0.74%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.46%, France's CAC 40 up 0.65%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.81% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 0.95% to $59.81 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.90% to $64.08 per barrel [3][4] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Insights - The US Labor Department is set to release September's non-farm payroll data, which is expected to show an increase of 50,000 jobs, indicating a weak labor market [5] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes reveal significant internal disagreement regarding future rate cuts, with a 10-2 vote to lower rates by 25 basis points [7] Company Performance and Forecasts - Barclays has raised its S&P 500 target for the end of 2026 to 7400 points, an 11.4% potential increase from the recent close, driven by strong performance in large-cap tech stocks [6] - Nvidia reported Q3 revenue of $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, with data center revenue surging 66% to $51.2 billion [11] - Walmart's Q3 revenue reached $179.5 billion, exceeding expectations by $4.33 billion, and the company raised its fiscal 2026 sales growth forecast to 4.8%-5.1% [12] - Palo Alto Networks reported Q1 revenue of $2.47 billion, slightly above expectations, but saw a decline in platform growth [13] - Novartis raised its peak sales forecast for cancer drugs Kisqali and Scemblix, projecting annual revenue growth of 5%-6% through 2030 [14] - NetEase reported a Q3 net profit of approximately 8.62 billion yuan, a 31.77% year-over-year increase [14]

盘前市场动向 1. 11月20日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.56%，标普500指数期货涨1.17%，纳指期货涨 1.60%。 | = US 30 | 46,395.50 | 46,498.20 | 46,150.50 | +256.70 | +0.56% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6.720.10 | 6,736.90 | 6.674.30 | +77.90 | +1.17% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 25,034.60 | 25,124.60 | 24,876.30 | +394.10 | +1.60% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.74%，英国富时100指数涨0.46%，法国CAC40指数涨0.65%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.81%。 | 德国DAX30 | 23,376.65 | 23,454.15 | 23,311.50 | +172.51 | +0.74% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 瑞 英国富时100 | ...

Summary of Novartis Management Investor Event Company Overview - **Company**: Novartis - **Event**: 2025 Meet Novartis Management Investor event - **Focus**: Interaction between investors, analysts, and management teams, discussing company performance and future strategies [1][3] Core Industry Insights - **Industry**: Pharmaceuticals - **Strategy**: Transitioned to a pure-play medicines company, divesting from Alcon and Sandoz, leading to a focused strategy on four key therapeutic areas and key geographies [4][6] Financial Performance - **Sales Growth**: Achieved 7% sales growth and 15% core operating income growth [4] - **Free Cash Flow**: Generated $15.9 billion in the first nine months of the year, comparable to the full year 2024 number [5] - **Return on Invested Capital**: Improved to 17%, above peer median [5] - **Shareholder Returns**: Ranked in the top five for total shareholder returns over five years and second over three years [5] Strategic Focus Areas - **Therapeutic Areas**: Focus on four key therapeutic areas and technology platforms, including data science and artificial intelligence [6] - **Capital Allocation**: Emphasis on investing in business growth, with ongoing share buybacks and a commitment to a growing dividend [7] Product Portfolio and Pipeline - **Blockbusters**: 14 in-market blockbusters and eight brands with peak sales potential over $3 billion [8] - **Pipeline Assets**: 30 high-value pipeline assets with 15 submission-enabling readouts expected in the next two years [11][22] - **Market Potential**: Estimated market sizes for new platforms: $36 billion in RNA therapeutics, $28 billion in radioligand therapies, and up to $49 billion in cell and gene therapies [9] Growth Outlook - **Sales Guidance**: Upgraded guidance for 2024-2029 to 6% sales growth, with 5-6% expected from 2025 to 2030 [11][12] - **Core Margin**: Anticipated decline of 1-2 percentage points in core margin in 2026 due to the Avidity acquisition, with recovery expected to over 40% by 2029 [12] Launch Performance - **Recent Launches**: Strong performance in recent product launches, with significant market shares achieved within months [15][16] - **International Markets**: Notable growth in China, Germany, and Japan, with aspirations to improve market positions [16] Key Product Updates - **Kisqali**: Upgraded to over $10 billion peak sales potential based on strong early performance [17] - **Cosentyx**: Maintained outlook at $8 billion, supported by recent positive data [17] - **Kesimpta**: Projected at over $6 billion, with ongoing evaluations of competitive dynamics [17] - **Scemblix**: Upgraded guidance based on strong brand share growth despite competition [18] Regulatory and Market Challenges - **European Market**: Facing challenges due to MFN agreements affecting pricing and market access, leading to potential delays in product launches [55][56] - **Asia Growth**: Significant opportunities identified in Asian markets, particularly China and Japan [56] ESG Commitment - **Sustainability**: Recognized as a leader in ESG matters, with a AAA MSCI rating and a commitment to global health initiatives [48] Conclusion - **Overall Strategy**: Novartis is positioned for continued growth with a strong pipeline, focused strategy, and commitment to shareholder returns, despite facing regulatory challenges in Europe and a competitive market landscape [49]

Core Insights - Novartis (NVS.US) expects its sales to grow by 5% to 6% by 2030, adjusted for currency, driven by higher revenue expectations for its cancer drugs Kisqali and Scemblix [1] Sales Projections - The peak sales forecast for Kisqali, used to treat a common type of breast cancer, has been raised from $8 billion to at least $10 billion [1] - For the leukemia drug Scemblix, the peak sales forecast is now at least $4 billion, up from a previous estimate of at least $3 billion [1] - The company indicates that its eight most promising approved drugs each have potential peak sales ranging from $3 billion to $10 billion [1] Strategic Acquisitions - Recently, the company acquired Avidity Biosciences for $12 billion to enhance its pipeline of treatments for muscle diseases, part of a broader strategy to offset declining sales from existing products, including its heart failure drug Entresto [1] - This acquisition is expected to increase the company's annual sales growth forecast for 2024 to 2029 to 6%, up from a prior estimate of 5% [1]