2025年08月25日 证券研究报告 | 人工智能行业专题（11） 探究模型能力与应用的进展和边界 行业研究 · 行业专题 互联网 · 互联网II 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：张伦可 证券分析师：陈淑媛 证券分析师：刘子谭 证券分析师：张昊晨 0755-81982651 021-60375431 liuzitan@guosen.com.cn zhanghaochen1@guosen.com.cn zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn chenshuyuan@guosen.com.cn S0980525060001 S0980525010001 S0980521120004 S0980524030003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 报告摘要 Ø 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险、广告增长不及预期风险、行业竞争加剧风险、AI技术进展不及预期风险等。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2 Ø 本篇报告主要针对海内外模型发展、探究模型能力与应用的进展和边界。我们认为当前海外模型呈现差异化发展，企业调用考虑性价比。当前 OpenAI在技术路径上相对领先，聚焦强化推理与专业 ...

Core Insights - Roblox Corporation (RBLX) is focusing on its developer ecosystem as a key growth driver, with recent results showing positive momentum in this area [1] Group 1: Developer Ecosystem and Monetization - Creator payouts increased by 39% year over year to $281 million, with over 100 developers earning $1 million or more in the past year, indicating a growing and maturing development community [1][7] - The platform's investment in tools and incentives has made game creation easier and more profitable, with 24% of the top 100 experiences by spending in March being developed within the past year, reflecting strong content turnover [2][7] - AI tools like Cube 3D and generative 4D asset creation have enabled developers to create interactive experiences at scale, leading to a 35% year-over-year increase in earnings for the top 100 creators, averaging $6.7 million [3][7] Group 2: Market Position and Performance - Roblox aims for a 10% market share in global gaming, focusing on scaling its ecosystem by supporting a diverse range of creators across genres [4] - RBLX shares have risen by 77.8% over the past three months, outperforming the industry average increase of 26.5% [5] - The current forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio for RBLX is 13.22, which is higher than industry peers like Take-Two Interactive and Electronic Arts, which have ratios of 5.62 and 4.8, respectively [9] Group 3: Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RBLX's loss per share for 2025 has widened to $1.42, compared to an adjusted loss per share of $1.44 reported in 2024 [11] - Earnings growth for competitors Take-Two Interactive and Electronic Arts in fiscal 2026 is projected at 31.7% and 20.5%, respectively [12]

Core Viewpoint - Roblox has shown significant growth, with its stock price increasing by 185% over the past 12 months, leading to a reassessment of its investment potential [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Roblox has returned to a growth trajectory after a brief slowdown in 2022, demonstrating the sustainability of its business model [3] - Daily active users (DAU) increased from 66.1 million in Q1 2023 to 97.8 million in Q1 2025, with users aged 13 and above growing at a faster rate [4] - Quarterly revenue rose from $655 million in Q1 2023 to $1.035 billion in Q1 2025, while quarterly free cash flow increased from $82 million to $427 million during the same period [5] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Roblox has formed strategic partnerships, such as with Google Ads, and introduced its generative AI system, Cube 3D, to enhance content creation [6] - The company is expanding its user base to include older demographics and diversifying content offerings to meet varying needs [8] - Roblox is targeting fast-growing markets in the Asia Pacific and Latin America, localizing content and investing in cloud infrastructure [9] Group 3: Growth Drivers - The adoption of AI technologies is expected to accelerate Roblox's growth by improving content creation efficiency and operational effectiveness [10] - The company aims to reach a long-term goal of 1 billion users by expanding its ecosystem with more content and improved monetization strategies [14] Group 4: Valuation Considerations - Roblox's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio stands at 17.2, significantly higher than Meta Platforms' P/S ratio of 10.7, indicating a premium valuation [12] - While Roblox has growth potential, the current stock price reflects much of the optimism, suggesting caution for new investors [15]