Core Viewpoint - The shortage and price increase of storage chips may continue for another two to three years, driven by the surge in AI demand, ultimately impacting consumers who will face higher prices for electronic devices like smartphones [1][24]. Market Dynamics - The storage chip market is currently experiencing significant price increases, with DDR5 memory prices rising by 307% in just over two months, and NAND Flash prices also seeing substantial weekly increases [5][6]. - The market is characterized by instability, with manufacturers often not providing clear pricing, leading to panic and confusion among buyers [6][12]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - Despite the price surges, the growth in end-user demand for devices like smartphones and PCs has not kept pace, with global smartphone shipments only increasing by 2.6% year-on-year [7][8]. - The current price increases are primarily driven by supply-side adjustments, as manufacturers are cautious about expanding production capacity after previous overproduction led to price drops [9][12]. AI Demand Impact - The explosion of demand for AI servers from major cloud service providers has redirected production capacity away from consumer electronics, leading to a scarcity of chips for smartphones and PCs [9][10]. - Major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are prioritizing high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and enterprise solid-state drives (eSSD) for AI applications, which are more profitable than traditional memory products [10][11]. Price Transmission to Consumers - The rising costs of memory components are expected to lead to significant price increases for smartphones and PCs, with manufacturers indicating that they cannot fully absorb the costs [16][18]. - Xiaomi and Lenovo have both acknowledged that the surge in memory prices will necessitate higher retail prices for their products in the coming year [16][19]. Market Segmentation - The storage market is becoming increasingly divided, with large clients having priority access to supply, while smaller brands face severe shortages and higher prices [12][19]. - The shift in focus towards AI has left many smaller players in the consumer electronics space struggling to secure necessary components, leading to a potential reshaping of the market landscape [19][22]. Long-term Outlook - The current supply constraints are expected to persist, with predictions indicating a 40%-50% increase in server storage demand against a supply growth of only 20%-30% [14]. - The ongoing supply-demand imbalance suggests that the price increases for storage chips will not revert to previous levels, making higher prices a new norm for consumers [20][24].

Core Insights - The memory market is experiencing unprecedented price increases, with DDR5 memory prices rising by 307% in just over two months, while NAND Flash prices have also surged significantly [2][6] - The current market dynamics are characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, primarily driven by the explosive demand for AI server storage, which has led to a scarcity of conventional memory products for consumer electronics [6][10] - Major memory manufacturers are prioritizing production for AI applications, resulting in a strategic shift that leaves consumer electronics facing higher costs and potential shortages [11][16] Market Dynamics - Memory prices have skyrocketed, with DDR4 memory prices doubling from earlier this year, reflecting a significant shift from a year ago when the market was struggling with excess inventory [1][2] - The supply chain is under pressure, as manufacturers are cautious about expanding production capacity after previous overproduction led to price declines [5][10] - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and enterprise solid-state drives (eSSD) from major cloud service providers is driving the current price increases, with traditional consumer memory products being deprioritized [6][8] Consumer Electronics Impact - The rising costs of memory components are expected to lead to higher retail prices for smartphones and PCs, with manufacturers indicating that they cannot fully absorb the increased costs [11][13] - Companies like Xiaomi and Lenovo have acknowledged that the surge in memory prices will necessitate price increases for their products in the coming year [11][12] - The trend of "downgrading" specifications, such as reducing standard memory from 12GB to 8GB in new smartphone models, is emerging as a strategy to manage costs [12][13] Future Outlook - The supply-demand gap is projected to persist, with global server storage demand expected to grow by 40%-50% while supply increases only by 20%-30% [10][18] - The current market conditions suggest that the memory chip shortage and price increases could last for two to three more years, fundamentally altering the pricing landscape for consumer electronics [18] - Domestic manufacturers are beginning to fill the gaps left by major suppliers focusing on AI, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and opportunities for smaller players [16][17]

根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新发布的存储现货价格趋势报告，DRAM方面，自9月初至今，DDR41Gx8和DDR52Gx8颗粒现货价均有不同程度的上涨。预计 现货市场内存模组价格上涨速度将加快，从而缩小与颗粒价格的差距。与此同时，NAND闪存方面，由于供应极度紧张，现货价格持续上涨，报价每日都 在波动。DRAM方面，DDR4与DDR5颗粒的现货价格已经大幅上涨。自九月初至今，DDR41Gx8颗粒价格环比上涨158%，DDR52Gx8颗粒现货价环比大 涨307%，这使得买方难以追价，因此交易量进一步萎缩。然而这并未改变当前DRAM市场的强劲前景。 延续TrendForce先前的预测，目前现货市场并非观察当前价格走势的最佳指标，应着重观察合约价格的波动。预计现货市场内存模组价格涨幅将加快，以 收敛与颗粒价格的差距。 主流颗粒DDR41Gx83200MT/s在本周的价格涨幅为4.75%，从US$12.179上涨至US$12.757。 至于NAND方面，受到供应极度吃紧的心理影响，现货市场价格急速上扬，报价甚至呈现"每日一变"。在原厂无额外产能可释放的状况下，中小型客户只 能转向现货市场寻求供应，使价格持续受到推 ...