DoorDash (DASH US) 增长再投资下短期利润略逊预期 2025 年 11 月 07 日│美国 互联网 证券研究报告 DoorDash 公布 3Q25 业绩：GOV（总交易额）达 250.2 亿美元，yoy+25.1%， 超 VA 一致预期（下称预期）1.9%；收入 34.5 亿美元，yoy+27.3%，超预 期 2.6%，主要得益于月活用户显著增长和平均订单金额及频率的同比提升； GAAP 净利润 2.4 亿美元，预期 2.9 亿美元；调整后 EBITDA 为 7.5 亿美 元，yoy+42%，基本符合预期。4Q 交易额指引中值高于预期 1.7%，而调 整后 EBITDA 指引中值低于预期 10.6%。公司本季度核心经营指标增长表 现亮眼，但是利润端不及预期，主因运营成本的上升和 Deliveroo 的整合。 同时公司提出 26 年将增加数亿美元的再投资，可能会带来短期盈利压力， 但是我们认为有利于中长期的持续发展，并看好公司在国际业务和多品类垂 直方向的增长潜力，维持买入评级。 总交易额超预期，核心品类与国际扩张双驱动 3Q25 公司订单量达 7.76 亿单，yoy +21%，超预期 0.4% ...

Core Viewpoint - DoorDash reported mixed third-quarter results, with strong demand for food delivery but earnings falling short of analyst expectations, leading to a significant drop in stock price [1][12]. Financial Performance - DoorDash earned 55 cents per share for the September-ended quarter, a 44% increase year-over-year, but below the expected 68 cents per share [2]. - Sales rose 27% to $3.45 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $3.36 billion [2]. - The total value of orders on DoorDash's platforms grew 25% year-over-year to $25 billion, exceeding the forecast of $24.5 billion [3]. Future Guidance - For the current quarter, DoorDash projected a gross order value of $29.2 billion, higher than the analyst projection of $26.55 billion [4]. - The adjusted EBITDA forecast for Q4 is $760 million, which is below the analyst estimate of $807 million [4]. Investment Strategy - DoorDash plans to invest "several hundred million dollars more" in new initiatives and platform development in 2026 compared to 2025 [5]. - The investments aim to create a global technology platform to unify DoorDash's app with those of Wolt and Deliveroo, enhancing efficiency in feature deployment [6]. Product Development - Recent product launches include a delivery robot named Dot and DashMart Fulfillment Services, which partners with retailers like CVS for rapid delivery [7]. Analyst Sentiment - Despite concerns over new investments impacting growth, some analysts maintain a positive outlook, citing DoorDash's strong execution and improving margins in its core business [9][11]. - Analysts have adjusted their price targets for DoorDash stock, with JPMorgan lowering it to 300 from 325 and Truist to 330 from 340 [10]. Stock Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, DoorDash stock fell over 14% to 203.64, marking a significant decline from its record high of 285 reached on October 16 [12].

Core Insights - Kroger is expanding its delivery capabilities by partnering with DoorDash's DashMart Fulfillment Services, which will allow the grocer to reach urban areas where its stores are not present [4][9] - The partnership builds on Kroger's existing relationships with DoorDash and other delivery services, enhancing its e-commerce strategy [8][9] - DashMart, launched five years ago, now operates over 100 locations and provides a fulfillment service for retailers, allowing them to offer quick delivery without significant infrastructure costs [6][7] Group 1 - Kroger is utilizing DashMart facilities for online order fulfillment, indicating a shift towards using stores for picking and packing e-commerce orders [3] - The fulfillment service will enable Kroger to offer groceries and household items through DoorDash, joining other retailers like CVS and Party City [9] - The announcement follows Kroger's expansion of DoorDash delivery to all 2,700 of its stores, highlighting the grocer's reliance on third-party delivery services [9] Group 2 - DoorDash's DashMart provides a "turnkey model" for retailers, allowing them to enhance their digital presence without incurring high costs for new infrastructure or technology [7] - The timeline and specifics of when Kroger will start utilizing DashMart facilities remain unclear, as the partnership is still in its early stages [5] - Kroger's previous collaborations with DoorDash include sushi and floral delivery, and it also has a long-standing relationship with Instacart and Uber for delivery services [8]

Core Insights - DoorDash has launched a new fulfillment service called DashMart Fulfillment Services, leveraging its DashMart network and a new delivery robot named Dot [1][6] Group 1: DashMart Fulfillment Services - The service utilizes DoorDash's DashMart locations for inventory management, picking, packing, and delivery, providing retailers with a logistics solution without the need for their own infrastructure [2][3] - CVS Pharmacy and Party City are the first retailers to adopt this service, with Kroger expected to follow soon [1] - DashMart locations serve as additional sales channels for brands and local businesses, offering consumers access to a variety of products including groceries and household essentials [2][4] Group 2: Delivery Robot - Dot - Dot is a self-designed, all-electric delivery robot capable of navigating various terrains, including bike lanes and sidewalks, and can carry up to 30 pounds of cargo [6][7] - The robot is designed for quick neighborhood deliveries, traveling at speeds of up to 20 mph, and is compact enough to fit through most doorways [7] - The introduction of Dot aims to reduce the reliance on full-sized vehicles for small deliveries, thereby decreasing traffic and fossil fuel emissions [7]

Core Insights - DoorDash aims to enhance local commerce through innovative solutions that empower merchants, consumers, and Dashers, with a focus on solving real problems [1][2] New Features and Innovations - The introduction of "Going Out" allows users to make reservations, earn in-store rewards, and access exclusive offers, enhancing the dining experience and helping restaurants attract customers [3][4] - The "Dot" autonomous delivery robot is designed for local commerce, capable of traveling at up to 20 mph and engineered for safety, currently being tested in the Phoenix metro area [6][8] - "SmartScale" technology helps restaurants improve order accuracy, reducing missing item claims by up to 30%, with Panera Bread being the first national restaurant to adopt it [9][21] Retail and Grocery Expansion - DoorDash is launching "DashMart Fulfillment Services" to help retailers manage inventory and delivery, with CVS, Party City, and Kroger already participating [11][12] - Starting October 1, nearly 2,700 Kroger stores will be available on DoorDash, making it the largest grocery partner on the platform, offering a wide range of products with delivery in as little as an hour [12] Enhanced User Experience - The app will feature AI-powered recommendations, personalized content, and new tools for Dashers to improve their experience and earnings [14][18] - Partnerships with platforms like Yelp will enhance the discovery of restaurants and streamline the ordering process [14]