瑞幸咖啡及行业更新：饮茶 or 喝咖啡？20250605 摘要 瑞幸咖啡通过产品创新（如轻乳茶、柠檬茶）和短期促销活动（如五块 六、五块九）保持竞争力，新品对夏季门店销售有明显拉动作用，且不 影响咖啡交付效率。 瑞幸咖啡开店速度超预期，高线城市与低线城市的新开比例约为六四开， 表明高线城市用户教育和消费频次持续向上，预计全年开店数量将超过 年初指引。 外卖业务显著推动了瑞幸咖啡及整个餐饮行业的发展，尽管平台补贴减 少，但品牌通过增加自身补贴维持门店实收增长，瑞幸咖啡外卖订单占 比已接近 30%。 咖啡期货价格波动对成本端产生影响，但近期阿拉比卡咖啡期货价格回 落，且公司签订采购大单并推出高利润率新品，有助于缓解成本压力并 改善毛利。 茶饮品牌在外卖平台表现良好，普遍有较高的外卖占比，受益于外卖平 台补贴。蜜雪冰城和茶百道等品牌积极参与外卖活动，门店数量和同店 销售额均呈现增长趋势。 Q&A 请介绍一下瑞幸咖啡最近的经营状况和发展趋势。 根据我们的跟踪观察，瑞幸咖啡的同店数据和开店节奏均表现良好，超出预期。 具体来说，同店数据环比和同比均有所改善。虽然具体数据不便透露，但从第 三方数据和专家分析来看，这一趋势得 ...

端午送好礼 为感恩每一位关注与支持新华网财经的朋友，我们精心筹备了端午惊喜福利！ 参与方式超简单：关注新华网财经微信公众号，并在本篇文章下方的评论区留言。我 们将选取前两位留言的幸运儿，送上极具特色的「夏午唱游 蜀韵山河」端午风物礼 盒！先到先得哦！每位朋友仅可领取一份，可别错过啦～ 据"京东黑板报"消息，京东外卖全职骑手规模已突破10万人，比原计划提前近2个月达成。京东外卖表 示，将加大招聘力度，近期将扩招至15万名全职骑手。据介绍，京东外卖日订单量已突破2500万单，有 超过150万家品质餐饮门店入驻。 据第一财经此前报道，在2月初官宣上线京东外卖服务后，京东在骑手招聘上层层加码。4月27日，京东 宣布将进一步加大全职骑手的招聘力度。未来三个月，京东将招聘10万名全职骑手。待遇方面，全部缴 纳五险一金且所有费用都由公司承担。 来源：第一财经 「夏午唱游 蜀韵山河」端午礼盒 礼盒包括： 扇形蜀韵画框、风物特产非遗川粽、三才盖碗、四川限定刺绣冰箱贴、旅行风物四川 特刊 如果这次与福利擦肩也别遗憾！端午假期期间，我们将在每日的推送中持续派送礼 盒。快把我们设为星标，不错过每一份好运！ ...

Core Insights - The company reported 1Q25 revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, an 18% year-on-year increase, exceeding expectations by 1.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit for 1Q25 was 10.95 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 21%, driven by better-than-expected core local business operating profit and lower-than-expected losses from undistributed projects [1] - The adjusted net profit margin stood at 12.6% [1] Revenue Growth Trends - In 1Q25, core local business revenue grew 18% to 64.3 billion yuan, with takeaway orders expected to maintain a growth rate of nearly 10% and revenue increasing by 14% [1] - For 2Q25, takeaway order volume is projected to continue the same year-on-year growth rate, but revenue is expected to increase by only 5% due to subsidy impacts [1] - Instant retail segment saw a 32% growth in order volume in 1Q25, with expectations of maintaining this growth rate in 2Q25 following the launch of the "Meituan Flash Purchase" brand [1] - The in-store hotel and travel segment's gross transaction value (GTV) grew 30% in 1Q25, with a forecasted 28% growth in 2Q25 [1] Operating Profit Margin (OPM) Insights - Core local business operating profit increased by 39% to 13.49 billion yuan in 1Q25, exceeding expectations by 10%, with OPM rising from 17.8% to 21% [2] - However, 2Q25 operating profit margin for takeaway is expected to decline due to intensified industry competition and increased subsidy investments [2] - The in-store hotel and travel business's OPM is anticipated to slightly decrease in 2Q25 due to factors such as expansion into lower-tier cities and seasonal variations [2] New Business Developments - New business revenue grew 19% to 22.2 billion yuan in 1Q25, with operating losses narrowing to 2.27 billion yuan, better than expectations [3] - For 2Q25, new business revenue is projected to increase by 21% to 26.1 billion yuan, with expected operating losses rising to 2.6 billion yuan due to overseas investment [3] - The company plans to expand into more cities in Saudi Arabia and potentially enter the Brazilian market later in the year [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has lowered its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 13% and 5% to 40.9 billion yuan and 54.1 billion yuan, respectively, due to increased subsidy pressures and overseas investments [3] - Despite these adjustments, the company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 177 HKD, corresponding to 25/26 adjusted P/E ratios of 25/18 times [3] - Current stock price trades at 25/26 adjusted P/E ratios of 18/14 times [3]

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved total revenue of 86.557 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 10.949 billion yuan, up 46.2%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] Financial Performance - Meituan's core local commerce revenue reached 64.325 billion yuan in Q1, growing 17.76% year-on-year, with adjusted operating profit of 13.5 billion yuan, up 39.10% [1] - Delivery service revenue was 25.7 billion yuan, a 22.11% increase year-on-year, while commission revenue was 24.1 billion yuan, up 20.05% [1] - Online marketing service revenue was 11.9 billion yuan, growing 15.09% year-on-year [1] Market Competition - Increased competition in the delivery market, particularly from JD.com, is expected to impact Meituan's profits starting in Q2, with revenue growth anticipated to slow [1] - The long-term view suggests that irrational competition in the industry may not be sustainable, with Meituan's delivery business having higher barriers compared to in-store travel and dining [1] New Business Developments - Meituan's new business segment reported revenue of 22.2 billion yuan in Q1, a 19% year-on-year increase, but incurred an adjusted operating loss of 2.3 billion yuan, slightly widening due to increased investment in Keeta in the Middle East [2] - The long-term outlook for Keeta is positive, with potential for significant profit margins in overseas markets, particularly in Brazil [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Meituan's projected revenues for FY25 and FY26 are 388.997 billion yuan and 456.662 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.23% and 17.39% respectively [2] - Non-GAAP profits are expected to be 40.986 billion yuan and 52.824 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.37% and an increase of 28.88% [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a target price of 146.33 HKD, corresponding to a 20X PE for 2025 [2]

2025.05. 26 本文字数：1060，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 陆涵之 5月26日，美团(股票代码:3690.HK)发布2025年第一季度业绩报告，公司季度营收达866亿元，同比 增长18%。 美团表示，在2025年第一季度，美团闪购非食品品类的订单增长超过60%，同时美团成功引入了苏 泊尔、美的等知名品牌。 此外，陈少晖还在会上预告了美团今年的618大促安排，他表示："为了更好满足消费者在即时零售 平台购物的需求，美团外卖和美团闪购将联合众多餐饮品牌及零售品牌开启618促销活动，向消费者 提供更优惠的商品和外卖。"据第一财经了解，美团618将于5月28日正式开始。 微信编辑 | 小羊 此外，美团还观察到消费者在其他平台上的体验并不理想，有时会出现系统宕机和送货延迟等问题， 退款率较高。 美团后续计划协助中小商家获得更多客户并不断提升收入，同时帮助品牌餐厅进行更多创新以及优化 当前的商业模式，例如品牌卫星店就是一种非常好的模式。基于种种因素，美团对保持在行业中长期 的领导者地位充满信心。 5月12日，美团宣布在未来几个月内将旗下外卖服务Keeta引入巴西，并计划5年内在巴西投入10亿 美 ...

近期与在美团工作过的朋友交流，了解了美团的相关业务的发展情况，以及和竞争对手的对比，分享给 大家： Q：美团外卖业务的增长动力（如何）？渗透率较高？ A：国内DAU高速涨幅有难度，未来看国外，可以关注下拼好饭（下沉市场）和神枪手（提升用户粘 性），美团大会员是今年重点项目，这两年投入成本做骑手关怀，解决社保问题。 Q：美团的骑手直接雇佣比例？社保分担比例？ A：大部分是众包骑手，主要通过代理商运营。也有专送的，主要是直营全职的（编者注：专送骑手为 加盟商管理）。美团分担部分社保，骑手自己分担部分。可能全职的也就80万人。社保具体的影响还不 大确定。 Q：新进入者京东怎么看？ A：京东比较难，主要在某些局部市场做小生意，目前仍然在拉新引流阶段，京东外卖入口比较深，难 找到，现在还是搞PR，跑UE模型阶段。通过对京东的观察，（我）认为京东还有差距，企业文化难以 打硬仗。一方面，做外卖要投入很大资源，老板要下很大决心，另一方面，京东在多线作战，公司在推 广国际化，电商在打英国和中东市场。抖音当时搞外卖也没有做起来，一些公司做高毛利生意可以，但 做低毛利生意很难。 Q：为何美团能把外卖做好？ A：美团很务实，特别擅长 ...

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, JD achieved revenue of 301.08 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.78%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 12.76 billion RMB, up 43.4%, with a net profit margin of 4.24%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - JD's Q1 2025 revenue was 3010.82 billion RMB, with 1P revenue at 2423.09 billion RMB (up 16.2%) and 3P revenue at 587.73 billion RMB (up 14.0%) [1] - The retail segment generated revenue of 2638.45 billion RMB, a 16.3% increase, with adjusted operating profit of 128.46 billion RMB and a profit margin of 4.87% [1] - The logistics segment reported revenue of 46.97 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, with adjusted operating profit of 1.45 billion RMB and a profit margin of 0.31% [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Policies - National subsidy policies have supported JD's continued growth, with expectations for these policies to persist in 2025, further enhancing offline integration [1] - JD's new food delivery service has made significant progress, with daily order volume surpassing 10 million, indicating strong market penetration compared to competitors [2] - Regulatory bodies are emphasizing compliance and fair competition in the food delivery sector, which may lead to a more rational investment approach in the future [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for JD are 1286.4 billion RMB and 1375.1 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with expected growth rates of 11.01% and 6.90% [3] - Non-GAAP net profit projections are 51.01 billion RMB and 59.28 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, with growth rates of 6.66% and 16.22% [3] - The target price is set at 207.89 HKD, corresponding to a 12x PE for the group in 2025 [3]

5月13日晚，京东披露了2025年一季报。报告期内，实现营收3011亿元人民币，同比增长15.8%，增速 创近三年来新高，远超市场预期；归母净利润为108.9亿元，较上年同期增长52.73%，毛利率为 15.89%。 而此前受高基数+线下经济恢复影响，京东日用百货收入增速曾一度跌入谷底，2023年上半年，日用百 货收入最低增速已接近-9%，随着后续季度的持续爬坡，目前已稳健向好发展。 京东物流业务的营收为469.67亿元，同比增长11.5%。其中，一体化供应链收入同比增长13.2%，外部一 体化供应链客户数同比增长13.1%。 备受关注的外卖业务所在的新业务板块，一季度实现营收为57.53亿元，同比增长18.1%，是京东增速最 快的业务板块。在2月底，京东正式宣布进军外卖，先后推出了"0佣金招募品质商家"、"为全职骑手交 五险一金"等举措。 数据显示，3月底，京东外卖的日订单量为100万单，到了4月15日已达500万单，一周后又宣布日订单量 已突破1000万单。许冉透露称，京东外卖或将很快突破2000万单。得益于外卖业务的爆火，京东一季度 活跃用户数同比增速超20%，已连续6个季度保持双位数增长，第三方商家数 ...

【中信社服】DoorDash 25Q1业绩速览：利润表现强劲，收购Deliveroo及SevenRooms 25Q1营收30.3亿美元/YoY+20.7%；我们计算25Q1 GOVtake rate为13.1%/YoY+8bps，环比24Q4下降36bps。 #运营端：量价齐增驱动GMV维持高增。 25Q1公司订单量达7.32亿/YoY+18.1%，系用户总数增长、核心用户数提升购频提升、新垂类贡献度提升。 25Q1 GOV230.8亿美元/YoY+19.9%，我们计算AOV为31.5美元/YoY+1.6%。 【中信社服】DoorDash 25Q1业绩速览：利润表现强劲，收购Deliveroo及SevenRooms #运营端：量价齐增驱动GMV维持高增。 25Q1公司订单量达7.32亿/YoY+18.1%，系用户总数增长、核心用户数提升购频提升、新垂类贡献度提升。 25Q1 GOV230.8亿美元/YoY+19.9%，我们计算AOV为31.5美元/YoY+1.6%。 #收入端：货币化率同比稳定、环比下滑。 #费用端：规模效应下毛利率提升、折旧与摊销费用优化显著。 25Q1公司实现经调毛利润14.6亿美元/毛利 ...

在一系列热点事件发酵及刘强东的"强力带货"下，4月24日，京东对外宣布，截至4月22日，京东外卖日 单量突破1000万单。美团外卖2023年全年单量为220亿单，平均日单量约为6027万单，按照这一数据， 京东外卖日单量接近美团外卖的六分之一。 同时，京东也在加紧扩充外卖骑手队伍抢占市场，不少骑手还在社交媒体发布了更换成京东骑手的视 频。4月27日，京东发文称未来三个月将招聘10万名骑手。而另一边，美团则针对近期"双开App被封 号""外卖柜排他""买到缩水餐"等问题再次发布澄清声明，外卖大战持续升级。 美团2021年最后一次单独披露外卖业务的经营利润率约为6.4%；摩根大通根据另一口径测算的2024年 全球九家主流外卖平台净利润率则在1.5%-3.3%之间 文｜ 《财经》特约撰稿人 康国亮 编辑 | 杨秀红 近日，京东（9618.HK，JD.US）、美团（3690.HK）的外卖大战愈演愈烈。让外界好奇的是，两大巨 头争抢的外卖业务到底有多赚钱？ 京东先是在两个月前高调宣布进军外卖市场，推出"京东外卖"业务。此后，京东率先宣布为全职骑手缴 纳社保，近期又因骑手"二选一"争议发酵，掀起了一轮外卖大战。与此同时， ...