J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 21 August 2025 GDS Holdings Prepping for an AI-driven uptick; DayOne growth continues to accelerate; stay OW GDS 2Q results were largely in-line, with FY25 EBITDA and revenue guidance maintained (despite some deconsolidation of datacenter assets that have been injected into the ABS and C-REIT during 2025), indicating stronger underlying growth. For now, GDS appears to be still taking a more guarded approach to AI projects as customers are still awaiting final cla ...

Summary of Key Points from the Multi-Industry Capex Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the multi-industry capital expenditure (capex) trends, analyzing approximately €3.1 trillion of capex across around 4,000 companies in 26 different end markets [1][7][43]. Core Insights - **Medium-term Capex Growth**: The medium-term capex growth has been revised upward slightly, now indicating a 5.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2024-2028, which is a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous update in April [7][13]. - **2025 Capex Downgrade**: For 2025, the capex growth expectation has been downgraded by 0.4 percentage points to 4.9%, attributed to some spending being deferred to 2026 due to tariff and policy uncertainties [7][8][13]. - **Sector Performance**: - **Strong Growth Areas**: Technology (specifically Datacenters) and Utilities (Power grids, Renewables) are expected to see favorable capex environments, with companies like Legrand, Schneider, Siemens, Prysmian, and Nexans recommended for investment [7][26]. - **Weak Growth Areas**: Sectors such as Biotech, Pulp & Paper, and REITs are experiencing the largest cuts in capex growth [7][8]. Additional Insights - **Geographical Drivers**: The US remains the primary driver of strength in the capex tracker, despite uncertainties regarding tariffs and interest rates. Europe is also expected to see strong investments in grid and defense [8][9]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Capacity utilization is below historical median levels in Europe but aligns with historical medians in the US and China. Elevated asset age in sectors like Oil & Gas, Vehicles, Airlines, and Healthcare indicates a need for replacement capex [8][9][21]. - **Macro Risks**: Key risks to the capex estimates for 2025 include tariff-driven inflation, structural overcapacity in China, and competitiveness issues for core capex spenders in Europe [9][10]. Sector-Specific Capex Growth Projections - **Datacenters**: Expected to grow at a CAGR of 23.0% for 2024-2028, with a 36.5% growth forecast for 2025 [20]. - **Renewables and Transmission**: Projected CAGR of 16.3% for 2024-2028, with 25.5% growth in 2025 [20]. - **Semiconductors**: Anticipated CAGR of 12.9% for 2024-2028, with 11.2% growth in 2025 [20]. - **Biotech**: Expected to decline with a CAGR of -8.1% for 2024-2028, and a -10.7% growth forecast for 2025 [20]. Conclusion - The capex tracker indicates a mixed outlook for various sectors, with technology and utilities poised for growth while others like biotech and pulp & paper face challenges. The overall capex environment remains healthy, but macroeconomic uncertainties could impact future investments [7][9][10].

Investment Rating - The industry view for Greater China Telecoms is rated as Attractive [2][78]. Core Insights - The datacenter industry is currently experiencing a multi-year upcycle, driven primarily by inference demand, which is expected to significantly influence future capital expenditures [6][7]. - The top six companies in the datacenter sector are projected to increase their capital expenditures by 62% year-over-year, reaching approximately Rmb373 billion [9]. - Datacenter electricity consumption is anticipated to account for 2.9% of total electricity usage in China [13]. Summary by Sections Datacenter Cycle - The industry is in a multi-year upcycle, with strong demand expected to drive capital expenditures [6][7]. Capital Expenditure Forecast - Significant growth in capital expenditures is expected, with a forecast of Rmb373 billion for the top six companies, marking a 62% increase year-over-year [9]. Datacenter Orders and Capacity - Datacenter orders are forecasted to reach approximately 3.7GW over the next three years, indicating robust demand [11]. - New supply was limited during the previous downcycle, leading to a more rational approach to new third-party wholesale capacity [15][20]. REITs and Valuation - Rapid progress in REITs issuance is noted as a key driver for valuation and funding within the industry [20][23]. - A dividend yield of 5-6% is expected at issuance, with trading multiples potentially exceeding the issuance [25]. Regional Market Insights - Various regional markets, including Hong Kong, Greater Tokyo, and Singapore, show differing dynamics in terms of market size, return profiles, and future supply trends [28]. - Finland is emerging as a key secondary market in Europe, benefiting from favorable energy resources and a mix of green energy capacity [39][41]. Financial Forecasts - GDS Holdings is projected to achieve an EBITDA of approximately Rmb6,740 million by 2027, with a consistent growth trajectory in net revenues [49]. - The utilization rate for datacenter area is expected to increase to 81% by 2027, reflecting improved operational efficiency [50].