格隆汇2月24日｜在研究公司Citrini Research发布报告、阐述人工智能(AI)可能对全球经济不同领域构成 潜在风险之后，美股多个板块包括配送、支付以及软件类股份周一大幅下挫，其中，KKR收跌8.89%， 黑石(Blackstone)收跌6.23%，美国运通收跌7.2%，DoorDash收跌6.6%。报告中提及的其他公司，包括 Uber、万事达卡(Mastercard)、Visa，股价跌幅介乎4.3%至5.8%。 在这场"思想实验"中，Citrini描绘多种可能结果，其中包括DoorDash和Uber Eats等外卖送餐应用程式的 主导地位，被所谓的"vibe-coded"(氛围编程)方案所取代。DoorDash共同创办人Andy Fang在社交媒体回 应表示，确实相信AI代理型商业将为行业带来颠覆性改变，行业的地平线正在发生变化，业界必须适 应。报告还描述另一个未来情景，即AI代理商透过消除Mastercard和Visa等支付公司收取的交易费用， 帮助用户节省金钱。Citrini Research的报引发市场剧烈反应，但有部分市场人士认为，当前的市场反应 或已高估AI风险。 Citrini Res ...

CitriniResearch日前发布报告，详细分析了人工智能（AI）可能给全球经济多个领域带来的潜在风险，导致送餐、 支付和软件类股票周一大幅下跌。 DoorDash.、AmericanExpress、KKR&Co Inc.和Blackstone股价周一盘中均下跌超过8%。 文章中被点名的其他公司，包括Uber、Mastercard、Visa、CapitalOne和Apoll CitriniResearch日前发布报告，详细分析了人工智能（AI）可能给全球经济多个领域带来的潜在风险，导致送餐、 支付和软件类股票周一大幅下跌。 DoorDash.、AmericanExpress、KKR&Co Inc.和Blackstone股价周一盘中均下跌超过8%。 文章中被点名的其他公司，包括Uber、Mastercard、Visa、CapitalOne和Apollo GlobalManagement Inc.，股价也至少下 跌3%。 这篇周日发布的报告在前言中写道： "本文的唯一目的，是对一个此前相对缺乏深入探讨的情景进行建模。 希望读完之后，你能为人工智能让经济变得越来越'奇怪'所带来的潜在尾部风险做好准备。 " Ci ...

Industry Overview - The Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry is facing a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by high costs and declining traffic, but is experiencing sales growth due to menu price hikes and average check growth [1][3] - Industry participants are leveraging partnerships with delivery channels and digital platforms to enhance sales [1] Industry Description - The industry includes various types of restaurants, from casual to fine dining, and also encompasses operators of specialty coffee and quick-service restaurants [2] Current Trends - The restaurant industry is grappling with persistent inflation and reduced consumer purchasing power, leading to declining traffic due to rising menu prices [3] - Intense competition and high wages are contributing to increased expenses, affecting profit margins [4] Future Outlook - The National Restaurant Association projects U.S. restaurant sales to reach approximately $1.55 trillion by 2026, with slight employment growth expected [5] - Restaurants are investing in technology and workforce development to enhance efficiency and guest experiences [5] Digitalization and Off-Premise Sales - Digital innovation and partnerships with delivery services are driving growth, with operators focusing on cost-saving initiatives [6] - The increase in off-premise sales, including delivery and takeout, is positively impacting the industry [7] Industry Performance - The Zacks Restaurant industry has underperformed the S&P 500, declining 6.6% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's rise of 15.8% [10] - The industry is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 25.08X, higher than the S&P 500's 22.9X [13] Key Company Insights - **Brinker International**: Focused on driving traffic and revenues through menu innovation and better service platforms, with anticipated sales and earnings growth of 8% and 19.8% for fiscal 2026 [16][17] - **Yum China**: Benefiting from strong delivery momentum and plans to open over 1,900 new stores by 2026, with projected sales and earnings growth of 7.4% and 15.9% [20][21] - **BJ's Restaurants**: Enhancing operational efficiency and brand positioning through remodeling and menu innovations, with expected sales and earnings growth of 2.4% and 3.3% for 2026 [24][23]

Summary of Key Points from the Earnings Call Transcript Industry Overview - The Mobility/Delivery Internet sub-sector is expected to report results in line with investor expectations, supported by a healthy consumer backdrop across the industry [1][2] - Rideshare and food delivery are identified as two of the fastest-growing verticals in the US Internet, with projected CAGRs of +13% and +11% from 2025 to 2030, respectively [1][2] Rideshare Industry Insights - The mobility landscape benefits from rising utility trends among upper-banded users, despite upward pricing dynamics [2] - The impact of Autonomous Vehicles (AV) on demand and supply remains a key debate, with investors closely monitoring upcoming market launches [2][10] - Uber's operating estimates have been raised, with expectations of increased trip frequency per rider and a low double-digit percentage (LDD) bookings CAGR through 2030 [10] - Lyft's acquisition of FREENOW allows it to operate a multimodal transportation network, with expectations of sustaining a LDD % bookings CAGR over the next five years [10] - The rise of AVs could represent a mid-single-digit percentage (MSD) of total rideshare industry bookings by 2030 [10] Food Delivery Industry Insights - The food delivery landscape is expanding from food to grocery delivery and local commerce, presenting significant growth opportunities [3][19] - The US food delivery market is segmented into first-party online, third-party online, and offline delivery, with 3P delivery expected to grow at a faster rate (11% CAGR) than overall delivery (10% CAGR) [28] - DoorDash is projected to grow inline with the broader industry, maintaining a 66% share of 3P delivery sales [28] Company-Specific Updates Uber (UBER) - Q3 Mobility gross bookings (GBs) grew +20% YoY, driven by trip growth (+22% YoY) and strong platform engagement [29] - Q3 Delivery GBs grew +25% YoY, with significant contributions from Grocery & Retail, achieving a $12 billion annualized GBs run-rate [29] - The company announced a $1.5 billion share buyback in Q3 as part of a $20 billion repurchase program [29] DoorDash (DASH) - Marketplace gross order value (GOV) accelerated +25% YoY in Q3, driven by strong growth in monthly active users and increasing order frequency [29] - The company plans significant investments in 2026 towards a single integrated global platform and new initiatives [29] Instacart (CART) - Q3 gross transaction value (GTV) grew +10% YoY, driven by order growth (+14% YoY) [30] - The company continues to focus on advertising as a growth driver, despite macro uncertainties affecting ad revenues [30] Lyft (LYFT) - Gross bookings rose +16% YoY in Q3, supported by record rides and expansion in Europe [30] - The company is developing partnerships for AVs and expects to generate over $1 billion in free cash flow per year through 2026 and 2027 [30] Financial Estimates and Projections - Uber's gross bookings are projected to reach $354.9 billion by 2030, with a YoY growth trend of 10% [32] - DoorDash's gross bookings are expected to grow to $235.9 billion by 2030, with a 15% YoY growth trend [32] - Lyft's gross bookings are projected to reach $33.5 billion by 2030, with a 10% YoY growth trend [32] Consumer Trends and Market Dynamics - The overall health of the consumer and durability of current operating trends are under scrutiny, with household income cohort trends analyzed to frame purchase intent [6] - Monthly active users (MAUs) for Uber grew +16% YoY in international markets, while Lyft's MAUs grew +1% YoY [43][50] Conclusion - The rideshare and food delivery industries are poised for significant growth, driven by consumer trends, technological advancements, and strategic company initiatives. Investors should remain vigilant regarding competitive dynamics and market developments as these sectors evolve.

Group 1 - The term "kill line" has gained popularity online, originally referring to a player's low health in games, now used to describe the indifference and fragility of the U.S. social security system [2] - An anonymous post on Reddit claimed to expose the "algorithmic secrets" of U.S. food delivery platforms, alleging that they exploit riders through an algorithm called "desperation scoring" [2][4] - The post suggested that delivery platforms intentionally underpay full-time riders while offering higher tips to part-time riders, creating a system of exploitation [4][5] Group 2 - The post sparked widespread discussion, with "desperation scoring" being cited as evidence of the platforms' exploitative practices [7] - However, the post was quickly debunked as an AI-generated rumor, with the original poster using a fake Uber Eats badge to support their claims [7] - Uber's COO publicly refuted the claims, stating that the information was fabricated and urging caution against believing everything online [7][8] Group 3 - DoorDash's founder also condemned the post, emphasizing that the described corporate culture was unacceptable and denying the existence of a "rider welfare fee" [7] - The incident highlights the growing issue of AI-generated misinformation on social media platforms, with similar posts frequently appearing [8][9] - Experts warn that the combination of deepfake technology and social engineering could lead to automated attacks, creating market panic or targeted scams [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of technological change on the workforce, particularly focusing on the Labor Economy, which comprises 60 million U.S. hourly workers who contribute significantly to consumer spending and the economy [8][12][18]. Group 1: Historical Context and Workforce Transition - Historical examples illustrate how different groups adapt to technological changes, with blacksmiths transitioning to auto mechanics due to transferable skills, while lamplighters struggled to find new roles after the advent of electric lights [4][5][6]. - The Labor Economy is at a similar inflection point today, facing potential displacement due to advancements in artificial intelligence and technology [7][29]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Labor Economy - The Labor Economy drives $1.7 trillion in annual consumer spending in the U.S., with workers typically earning between $30,000 and $40,000 per year [8][18]. - Approximately 36% of U.S. workers participate in the Labor Economy, with high participation rates in transportation, hospitality, retail, and personal services [17]. Group 3: Financial Fragility and Spending Patterns - Labor Economy workers often experience financial fragility, with limited savings and difficulty covering emergencies, which impacts their spending and, consequently, the broader economy [20][21]. - Their spending patterns are closely tied to their work hours and pay schedules, making timely paychecks crucial for economic stability [22]. Group 4: Innovation and Technology in the Labor Economy - Digital platforms have emerged as essential tools for Labor Economy workers, providing flexible income opportunities and access to on-demand pay, which enhances financial control [24][26]. - The article emphasizes the need for upward innovation, where technology creates pathways to higher-skill jobs, requiring training and support for workers [14][30]. Group 5: Future of Work and Structural Changes - The future of the Labor Economy will depend on how technology, innovation, and new staffing models interact to create stability and opportunities for workers [27][31]. - There is a call for creating infrastructure that connects technological advancements with workforce inclusion, ensuring that workers can adapt and thrive in a changing economy [40][42].

RT flock (6'3) (@melgibsonfan99)due to turbulent market conditions, i have been forced to adjust my default doordash tip to $0. I hope you understand during these trying times 🙏🏻 ...

Core Insights - The average retirement age is 65 for men and 62 for women, highlighting the importance of financial planning for retirement [1] Group 1: Retirement Planning - Retirement income sources include Social Security benefits, Roth IRAs, brokerage accounts, estate planning, and passive income, which are essential to counteract rising living costs [2] - Effective financial planning is crucial to manage expenses and maximize savings for retirement [2] Group 2: Expenses to Cut - Dining out significantly impacts retirement savings, with American families spending an average of $3,459 annually on dining out, which could be redirected into retirement accounts [5] - Reducing impulse shopping and excessive spending can prevent derailment of retirement plans, emphasizing the need for mindful financial habits [6]

Group 1 - DoorDash, Inc. (NASDAQ:DASH) is recommended as a solid investment for young investors, alongside Robinhood and Reddit, due to its recognition among teenagers [1] - Investors are advised to purchase shares of DoorDash gradually, suggesting buying in increments of 2 shares at a time, especially since there are no commission fees for small transactions [1] - The company operates a commerce platform that connects merchants, consumers, and delivery contractors through its DoorDash and Wolt marketplaces [2] Group 2 - While DoorDash is acknowledged as a potential investment, there are AI stocks that may offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [3]

Core Points - Will Shu, the founder of Deliveroo, will step down as CEO after 13 years as the company prepares for a takeover by DoorDash, valued at £2.9 billion ($4 billion) [3][4] - The acquisition will expand DoorDash's delivery service to over 40 countries, reaching approximately 50 million monthly active users [4] - Deliveroo achieved its first annual profit in March after years of losses due to high investment costs, with its IPO in 2021 valuing the company at £7.6 billion [5][6] Company Overview - Deliveroo was founded by Shu after he faced challenges in finding restaurants that delivered food to his workplace in London [6] - The company saw a significant increase in demand during the COVID-19 pandemic, but has since scaled back operations, including exiting the Hong Kong market [6] - The DoorDash offer of £1.80 per share is less than half of Deliveroo's IPO price of £3.90 [5] Industry Context - DoorDash, the largest food delivery app in the U.S., entered the European market in 2021 by acquiring Wolt for $8.1 billion [7] - The food delivery industry has faced scrutiny regarding the employment status of self-employed riders, with a recent UK Supreme Court ruling stating that Deliveroo riders are not entitled to trade union rights [7]