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CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL(1093.HK):LARGE-SCALE BD OUT-LICENSING DEALS LIKELY IN NEAR TERM
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-02 18:07
Core Insights - CSPC reported total revenue of RMB7.0 billion in Q1 2025, with RMB718 million from out-licensing income [1] - Core revenue, excluding out-licensing, reached RMB6.3 billion, reflecting a 1% quarter-over-quarter increase and accounting for 22% of previous FY25 estimates [2] - Core net profit, excluding out-licensing, was RMB868 million, a 58% quarter-over-quarter increase, representing 27% of FY25 estimates [2] Revenue and Profit Trends - Finished drug sales, excluding out-licensing income, declined by 5% quarter-over-quarter and 37% year-over-year, primarily due to a 21% quarter-over-quarter decline in CNS products [2] - Oncology product sales decreased by 7% quarter-over-quarter [2] - Selling expenses fell by 19% quarter-over-quarter to RMB1.7 billion, attributed to the volume-based procurement (VBP) of core products [2] Business Development (BD) Opportunities - CSPC expects three large-scale out-licensing deals in 2025, each with potential deal values exceeding US$5 billion [3] - The company has completed two additional BD agreements in 2025 and anticipates further deals involving key technology platforms [3] - CSPC has invested RMB 5.2 billion in R&D in FY24, supporting a pipeline of 40-50 assets with BD potential [3] Product Development and Clinical Trials - SYS6010, CSPC's leading ADC candidate, is in global Phase 3 development, with pivotal studies ongoing in China and plans for additional trials in the US [4] - SYS6010 demonstrated a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 7.6 months in specific patient populations, indicating promising efficacy [4] - The company plans to initiate two Phase 3 trials in the second half of 2025 for SYS6010 in various NSCLC patient groups [4] Future Outlook - CSPC's BD deals are expected to drive sustainable earnings growth, with projected revenue and net profit growth of 5.8% and 30.4% year-over-year in 2025 [5] - The target price has been revised from HK$5.71 to HK$10.08, reflecting positive growth expectations [5]
石药集团:Resilient BD momentum offsets sales pressure-20250401
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-04-01 02:28
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [15]. Core Insights - CSPC's total revenue is projected to decline by 7.8% YoY to RMB29.0 billion in FY24, primarily due to significant drops in oncology and cardiovascular drug sales [7]. - The company anticipates a return to positive organic revenue growth in FY2025, driven by new product launches and business development (BD) initiatives [7]. - CSPC has made substantial progress in out-licensing innovative assets, aiming to secure 3-4 out-licensing deals annually to generate recurring revenue [7]. - The target price for CSPC is revised to HK$5.71 from HK$5.97, reflecting a 15.5% upside from the current price of HK$4.94 [3][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY23 is reported at RMB31,450 million, with a slight YoY growth of 1.7%, while FY24 revenue is expected to drop to RMB29,009 million [2][12]. - Net profit for FY23 is RMB6,072.7 million, showing a decline of 2.6% YoY, with further expected declines in FY24 to RMB4,338.8 million [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY23 is reported at RMB0.49, with projections of RMB0.37 for FY24 [2][12]. Business Development and Pipeline - CSPC's business development efforts are expected to create a sustainable revenue stream, with a robust pipeline of 40-50 assets identified for out-licensing potential [7]. - The company is focusing on clinical trials for its EGFR ADC (SYS6010), which is currently in Phase 3 development globally [7]. Market Performance - CSPC's market capitalization is reported at HK$58,871 million, with a 52-week high of HK$7.12 and a low of HK$4.34 [3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month absolute performance of 4.9% and a 3-month performance of 3.3% [5].