瑞银发布研报称，对中国长期医疗市场潜力保持乐观看法，但在中国制药行业因授权许可乐观情绪推动 下今年以来已累涨64%，加上潜在的美国行政命令风险增加和估值偏高，预计市场焦点将重新转向有机 收入/利润增长。基于基本面疲弱，将石药集团(01093)和科伦药业(002422.SZ) 评级降至"中性"，并将行 业首选从三生制药(01530)更换为翰森制药(03692) ，因其稳定的传统业务和创新的管线储备。长期管线 潜力方面，该行认为恒瑞医药(01276)及翰森制药表现最佳。 该行对中国长期医疗市场潜力保持乐观看法，但在中国制药行业因授权许可乐观情绪推动下今年以来已 累涨64%，加上潜在的美国行政命令风险增加和估值偏高，预计市场焦点将重新转向有机收入/利润增 长。 报告指，石药集团的核心传统产品NBP(占2024年成品药收入的32%)持续失去市场份额，而其对未确认 的业务拓展(BD)收入的高依赖增加了不确定性。科伦药业面临需求疲弱和激烈竞争，可能导致其2025 年收入增长在同行中最低。追加内容 本文作者可以追加内容哦 ! 报告指，中国制药股的远期市盈率高于五年平均水平，然而美国行政命令风险的上升正将市场焦点转回 有机增 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains an optimistic outlook on the long-term potential of China's healthcare market, but due to a 64% increase in the pharmaceutical sector driven by licensing optimism, along with rising risks from potential U.S. executive orders and high valuations, the market focus is expected to shift back to organic revenue/profit growth [1] Company Ratings - The ratings for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) and Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422) have been downgraded to "Neutral" due to weak fundamentals [1] - The preferred stock in the industry has shifted from 3SBio (01530) to Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) because of its stable traditional business and innovative pipeline reserves [1] Long-term Pipeline Potential - The report indicates that the best performers in terms of long-term pipeline potential are Hengrui Medicine (600276) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical [1] Valuation and Market Focus - Chinese pharmaceutical stocks have a forward P/E ratio higher than the five-year average, but the rising risk of U.S. executive orders is shifting market focus back to organic growth [1] - CSPC and Kelun are expected to have the lowest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue from 2024 to 2034, at half the average rate of 13% for 3SBio, Hansoh, and Innovent Biologics [1] Company-Specific Challenges - CSPC's core traditional product NBP, which accounts for 32% of its 2024 finished drug revenue, continues to lose market share, increasing uncertainty due to high reliance on unconfirmed business development revenue [1] - Kelun Pharmaceutical faces weak demand and intense competition, which may lead to the lowest revenue growth among peers by 2025 [1]

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，对中国长期医疗市场潜力保持乐观看法，但在中国制药行业因授 权许可乐观情绪推动下今年以来已累涨64%，加上潜在的美国行政命令风险增加和估值偏高，预计市场 焦点将重新转向有机收入/利润增长。基于基本面疲弱，将石药集团(01093)和科伦药业(002422.SZ) 评级 降至"中性"，并将行业首选从三生制药(01530)更换为翰森制药(03692) ，因其稳定的传统业务和创新的 管线储备。长期管线潜力方面，该行认为恒瑞医药(01276)及翰森制药表现最佳。 报告指，中国制药股的远期市盈率高于五年平均水平，然而美国行政命令风险的上升正将市场焦点转回 有机增长。预计石药和科伦药业在2024-2034年的收入复合年增长率最低，仅为三生制药、翰森制药和 信达生物13%平均水平的一半。 报告指，石药集团的核心传统产品NBP(占2024年成品药收入的32%)持续失去市场份额，而其对未确认 的业务拓展(BD)收入的高依赖增加了不确定性。科伦药业面临需求疲弱和激烈竞争，可能导致其2025 年收入增长在同行中最低。 ...

Summary of CSPC Pharma Earnings Review and Industry Insights Company Overview - **Company**: CSPC Pharma (1093.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$121.1 billion / $15.5 billion - **Industry**: China Pharma, Biotech & Medtech Key Financial Highlights - **2Q Revenue**: Rmb 6.3 billion, down 14% year-over-year (y/y) - **Finished Drug Sales**: Rmb 4.4 billion, down 27% y/y, below expectations (GSe Rmb 5.4 billion) [1] - **CNS Drug Sales**: Declined by 27% y/y due to stricter regulatory monitoring, particularly affecting capsule sales [1] - **Oncology Sales**: Decreased by 54% y/y, impacted by value-based pricing (VBP) for Duomeisu / Jinyouli [1] - **Earnings**: Rmb 1.1 billion, down 24% y/y or 46% y/y excluding business development (BD) [1] - **R&D Expenses**: Rmb 1.4 billion, up 1% y/y; SG&A savings of 26% y/y partially offset the earnings decline [1] Management Guidance - **Sales Growth Resumption**: Expected in 2H25, with finished drug sales projected to grow by over 5% half-on-half (h/h) [1] - **Collaboration Income**: Potential for higher collaboration income for dividend payouts [1] Business Development (BD) Insights - **BD Progress**: Company is on track with three major BD deals expected in 2025, with one already delivered (platform collaboration with AZ) [3] - **SYS6010 (EGFR ADC)**: Smooth overseas development progress, with FDA approval for including China patients in trials [3][7] Metabolism Franchise Opportunities - **Licensing Deals**: Recent licensing-out deal of oral GLP-1 to Madrigal highlights potential deal-making opportunities [2] - **Pipeline Assets**: Includes oral small molecules for weight loss and muscle enhancement, monthly-dose formulations, and siRNA drugs [2] Earnings Estimates and Price Target - **Revised Earnings Estimates**: Decreased by 5.1% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 9.9% for 2027 to reflect lower expectations on finished drug sales [8] - **12-Month Price Target**: Increased to HK$11.28 from HK$10.55, indicating a potential upside of 7.4% from the current price of HK$10.51 [10] Valuation Methodology - **SOTP Valuation**: - DCF-based valuation for NBP: HK$7.2 billion - New product wave: HK$69.3 billion - Legacy portfolio and generics: HK$37.0 billion - API business: HK$4.0 billion [9] Risks and Considerations - **Key Downside Risks**: - Earlier-than-expected VBP for NBP - Slower-than-expected ramp-up of new products - Failure of major R&D projects - Greater-than-expected price cut impacts on generic drug sales [9] Conclusion CSPC Pharma is navigating a challenging environment with declining sales in key segments but is positioned for potential recovery in the latter half of 2025. The company’s focus on business development and innovative product pipelines may provide avenues for growth despite current headwinds.

Core Insights - CSPC reported total revenue of RMB7.0 billion in Q1 2025, with RMB718 million from out-licensing income [1] - Core revenue, excluding out-licensing, reached RMB6.3 billion, reflecting a 1% quarter-over-quarter increase and accounting for 22% of previous FY25 estimates [2] - Core net profit, excluding out-licensing, was RMB868 million, a 58% quarter-over-quarter increase, representing 27% of FY25 estimates [2] Revenue and Profit Trends - Finished drug sales, excluding out-licensing income, declined by 5% quarter-over-quarter and 37% year-over-year, primarily due to a 21% quarter-over-quarter decline in CNS products [2] - Oncology product sales decreased by 7% quarter-over-quarter [2] - Selling expenses fell by 19% quarter-over-quarter to RMB1.7 billion, attributed to the volume-based procurement (VBP) of core products [2] Business Development (BD) Opportunities - CSPC expects three large-scale out-licensing deals in 2025, each with potential deal values exceeding US$5 billion [3] - The company has completed two additional BD agreements in 2025 and anticipates further deals involving key technology platforms [3] - CSPC has invested RMB 5.2 billion in R&D in FY24, supporting a pipeline of 40-50 assets with BD potential [3] Product Development and Clinical Trials - SYS6010, CSPC's leading ADC candidate, is in global Phase 3 development, with pivotal studies ongoing in China and plans for additional trials in the US [4] - SYS6010 demonstrated a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 7.6 months in specific patient populations, indicating promising efficacy [4] - The company plans to initiate two Phase 3 trials in the second half of 2025 for SYS6010 in various NSCLC patient groups [4] Future Outlook - CSPC's BD deals are expected to drive sustainable earnings growth, with projected revenue and net profit growth of 5.8% and 30.4% year-over-year in 2025 [5] - The target price has been revised from HK$5.71 to HK$10.08, reflecting positive growth expectations [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10.12 HKD [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in 1Q25, with revenue of 7.015 billion RMB (-21.9% year-on-year, +11% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 1.48 billion RMB (-8.4% year-on-year, +169% quarter-on-quarter) [1]. - Key drivers for the positive performance include the stabilization of core business and the recognition of upfront payments from Lp(a) and MAT2A small molecule BD transactions [2]. - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in revenue and profit throughout the year, driven by the inventory cycle and new product launches [2]. - The EGFR ADC clinical trials are progressing rapidly, with promising data expected to enhance the company's international potential [3]. - The company is focusing on innovative pipelines, including HER2-targeted therapies and GLP-1 analogs, with expected market entries in the coming years [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts EPS of 0.49, 0.50, and 0.57 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price based on a 19x PE ratio for 2025 [5]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 31.101 billion RMB, with a conservative estimate of approximately 4 billion RMB in net profit for the year [2][19]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit margins, with a projected net profit margin of 18.31% for 2025 [19].

Summary of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Ltd - **Ticker**: 1093.HK - **Industry**: Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology Key Financial Results - **FY24 Revenue**: Declined by 8% YoY to CNY 29,009 million, in line with profit warnings [1][8] - **FY24 EPS**: Decreased by 25% YoY to CNY 0.37, also in line with profit warnings [1][8] - **Q4 Revenue**: Declined by 17% YoY, worse than expectations [1] - **Net Profit**: Decreased by 26% YoY to CNY 4,339 million [1][8] - **Operating Profit Margin**: Declined by approximately 4% from FY23 [1] Sales Performance - **Finished Drugs**: Revenue decreased by 7% YoY to CNY 23,736 million [10] - **Bulk Products**: Stagnant with a slight decline of 2% YoY [10] - **Functional Foods**: Experienced a significant decline of 22% YoY [10] - **Major Drug Impact**: Four major drugs, accounting for over 40% of FY23 revenue, faced significant price cuts due to VBP inclusion/exclusion [5] Future Outlook - **Growth Guidance for 2025**: Management anticipates overall growth, driven by new products like Mingfule (TNK) expected to contribute CNY 1.5 billion in incremental sales [1][2] - **Pipeline Expansion**: Over 20 products expected to launch by 2027, including biosimilars and generics [2] - **Early Stage Pipeline**: Management highlighted promising early-stage assets and plans for 3-4 out-licensing deals per year [2] Market Performance - **Current Price Target**: HKD 5.00, with a Market-Perform rating maintained [20] - **Stock Performance**: Year-to-date performance shows a 5.6% increase, but a 29.9% decline over the past 12 months [3][21] Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: Potential losses in upcoming VBP bids and delays in regulatory approvals for new molecules [26] - **Competitive Environment**: Concerns regarding the late entry of innovative assets into a competitive market [2] Additional Insights - **R&D Expenses**: Increased by 7% YoY to CNY 5,191 million, indicating continued investment in innovation despite financial challenges [8] - **Collaboration Deals**: Recent collaborations with BeiGene and Radiance Bio for drug development, with significant potential milestone payments [14][15] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Ltd, highlighting its financial performance, future outlook, and market positioning within the pharmaceutical industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [15]. Core Insights - CSPC's total revenue is projected to decline by 7.8% YoY to RMB29.0 billion in FY24, primarily due to significant drops in oncology and cardiovascular drug sales [7]. - The company anticipates a return to positive organic revenue growth in FY2025, driven by new product launches and business development (BD) initiatives [7]. - CSPC has made substantial progress in out-licensing innovative assets, aiming to secure 3-4 out-licensing deals annually to generate recurring revenue [7]. - The target price for CSPC is revised to HK$5.71 from HK$5.97, reflecting a 15.5% upside from the current price of HK$4.94 [3][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY23 is reported at RMB31,450 million, with a slight YoY growth of 1.7%, while FY24 revenue is expected to drop to RMB29,009 million [2][12]. - Net profit for FY23 is RMB6,072.7 million, showing a decline of 2.6% YoY, with further expected declines in FY24 to RMB4,338.8 million [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY23 is reported at RMB0.49, with projections of RMB0.37 for FY24 [2][12]. Business Development and Pipeline - CSPC's business development efforts are expected to create a sustainable revenue stream, with a robust pipeline of 40-50 assets identified for out-licensing potential [7]. - The company is focusing on clinical trials for its EGFR ADC (SYS6010), which is currently in Phase 3 development globally [7]. Market Performance - CSPC's market capitalization is reported at HK$58,871 million, with a 52-week high of HK$7.12 and a low of HK$4.34 [3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month absolute performance of 4.9% and a 3-month performance of 3.3% [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 8.26 HKD [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 29 billion RMB in 2024, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.328 billion RMB, down 26.3% year-on-year, which aligns with previous profit forecasts. The decline is attributed to the impact of tumor drug procurement and inventory pressure, along with falling raw material prices. Looking ahead to 2025, the report anticipates a stabilization in internal profit scale driven by the impact of procurement and accelerated entry of innovative drugs, estimating over 1.5 billion RMB in revenue from new products [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects a revenue of 29.594 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 2.01% increase, and a net profit of 5.644 billion RMB, representing a 30.41% increase year-on-year [7][18]. Drug Business Outlook - The company's drug segment revenue for 2024 was 23.7 billion RMB, down 7.4% year-on-year, primarily due to procurement impacts and competition. However, the report is optimistic about a recovery in 2025, particularly in the NBP segment, which is expected to grow steadily due to moderate price reductions in negotiations and expansion in retail channels [2][3]. New Product Contributions - The report highlights that the tumor line revenue for 2024 was 4.4 billion RMB, down 28.3% year-on-year, but anticipates new drug contributions exceeding 1.5 billion RMB in 2025, with several new products expected to enter the market [3][4]. Business Development (BD) Acceleration - The company has accelerated its BD efforts, with three successful BD agreements already in place and expectations for 2-3 more by the end of the year. This is seen as a potential source of regular income for the company [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 0.49 RMB, with a PE ratio of 15.5 times, leading to a target price of 8.26 HKD. This reflects a discount compared to comparable companies, which are projected at 22 times PE [5][9].