Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating to RoboSense (02498.HK) with a target price of HK$ 48.50 per share [2][7]. Core Insights - RoboSense reported strong Q4 2025 operating metrics, achieving breakeven in the quarter due to significant increases in LiDAR shipments for both ADAS and robotics [3][7]. - The robotics segment, particularly lawn mower robots, was a key driver of growth, supported by product upgrades and new customer additions [4]. - Demand for new digital LiDAR products, EMX and EM4, is expected to exceed expectations, contributing significantly to revenue in 2026 [5]. - Technological advancements showcased at CES, including a Delivery Assistant robot, highlight RoboSense's innovation capabilities [6]. - The upward revision of sales volume forecasts and revenue assumptions reflects stronger-than-expected demand, leading to improved gross margin forecasts [7]. Financial Overview - For 2025, RoboSense is projected to generate revenue of RMB 2,019.6 million, with a gross profit of RMB 557.9 million and a gross margin of 27.6% [8]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue to RMB 4,002.8 million by 2026, with a gross profit of RMB 1,142.1 million [8]. - The financial metrics indicate a path to profitability, with net profit expected to turn positive by 2026, reaching RMB 221.6 million [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HK$ 48.50 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a breakeven point in Q4 2025, driven by strong operational performance, with ADAS lidar sales reaching 238,400 units (up 54.8% year-on-year) and robotic lidar sales soaring to 221,200 units (up 2,565.1% year-on-year) [2][5]. - The growth in robotic lidar sales is primarily attributed to the demand for lawnmower robots, with expectations for continued growth due to product upgrades and new customer acquisitions [3]. - The new digital lidar products EMX (192 lines) and EM4 (>500 lines) are expected to become major revenue sources in 2026, gradually replacing older models [4]. - The company showcased advanced technology at CES, including a delivery robot capable of performing nearly 20 complex tasks, enhancing its product matrix with new lidar products [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 1,648.9 million for 2024, RMB 2,019.6 million for 2025, RMB 4,002.8 million for 2026, and RMB 5,147.3 million for 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 47.2% in 2024 and 22.5% in 2025 [13]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from RMB 283.6 million in 2024 to RMB 1,445.4 million in 2027, with gross margins improving from 17.2% to 28.1% over the same period [13]. - The company anticipates a net profit of RMB 221.6 million in 2026 and RMB 421.9 million in 2027, following a loss of RMB 481.8 million in 2024 and a reduced loss of RMB 239.2 million in 2025 [6][13].

Group 1 - RoboSense will showcase its second-generation solid-state LiDAR E1 Gen2, the world's first 3D safety LiDAR Safety Airy, and the ultra-mini LiDAR Airy Lite at the 2026 CES, aimed at automotive, robotics, and industrial applications [1] - E1 Gen2 is 25% smaller than its predecessor and offers enhanced performance, targeting various robotic perception and autonomous driving applications, with previous model E1 already securing millions of orders in the Robotaxi and lawnmower sectors [1] - The 3D safety LiDAR Safety Airy upgrades from traditional 2D warnings to near-hemispherical protection, designed to detect intrusions and provide high-resolution 3D point clouds, addressing limitations of existing 2D products in industrial safety [2] Group 2 - The global industrial safety LiDAR market reached $180 million in 2023, with projections to grow to $230 million by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4.2% [2] - Airy Lite is designed for robots, featuring a 360°×45° field of view, 60m range, and ±1cm precision, catering to consumer-grade robots' needs for compact and high-precision sensing [2] - RoboSense's self-developed chip capabilities support a comprehensive product matrix, enhancing perception solutions across various sectors, with core components like SPAD-SoC and VCSEL chips achieving automotive-grade mass production [3]

Group 1: Product Launch and Features - RoboSense will showcase its second-generation solid-state LiDAR E1 Gen2, the world's first 3D safety LiDAR Safety Airy, and the ultra-mini LiDAR Airy Lite at the 2026 CES, targeting automotive, robotics, and industrial applications [1] - E1 Gen2 is 25% smaller than its predecessor and offers enhanced performance, suitable for various robotic perception and autonomous driving applications [1] - Safety Airy upgrades from traditional 2D to near-hemispherical 3D protection, designed to detect intrusions and provide high-resolution 3D point clouds, addressing limitations of existing 2D products in industrial safety [2] - Airy Lite features a 360°×45° field of view, 60m range, and ±1cm precision, catering to consumer-grade robots with its compact design [2] Group 2: Market Potential and Growth - The global industrial safety LiDAR market reached $180 million in 2023, projected to grow to $230 million by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.2% [2] - RoboSense has served over 3,200 robotic clients globally across various sectors, reinforcing its market leadership [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - RoboSense's self-developed chip capabilities support a comprehensive product matrix, providing tailored perception solutions for various niche markets [3] - The SPAD-SoC and 2D addressable VCSEL chips have achieved automotive-grade mass production, laying a solid foundation for the widespread adoption of LiDAR technology [3]