自动驾驶行业等了多年，终于在CES2026等来了关键转折点。 过去五年，自动驾驶赛道经历了过山车般的命运：资本疯狂涌入，L4马上落地、全场景无人化的呐喊此起彼伏；潮水退去后，裸泳者尽显，头部企业持续 巨亏，行业陷入深刻的创新疲劳——大家都在做技术，但没人想清下一步往哪走。 雷科技CES报道团在跨越11000公里之后抵达现场，在CES 2026的喧嚣里，我们找到了破局的线索。 截图：英伟达官方直播 关于Alpamayo的技术解读已有许多，相关内容可以看看我们的另一篇文章《智驾战场来到CES2026：英伟达硬刚特斯拉，中国车企集体突围，AI成唯一答 案！》。 技术层面几乎没有什么悬念，悬念在于，黄仁勋怎么突然跟马斯克干上了？说白了，这依旧是那套视觉系VS传感器系的路线之争。 英伟达入局，电车通推测有两点原因： 一是英伟达的业务需要强调传感器融合方案的重要性。英伟达的核心营收来源是智驾芯片（如Orin X、Thor），若特斯拉的纯视觉路线大规模普及，将削弱 激光雷达等传感器的必要性，进而冲击英伟达的芯片销售基本盘。 二是行业需要一个属于自动驾驶的安卓系统。暂且不论自动驾驶、AI、大模型这些宏大叙事，从商业本质来说， ...

国盛证券（002670）发布研报称，看好速腾聚创(02498)激光雷达产品的订单需求和商业化潜力，预计 2025-2027年的总收入达23/35/44亿，同比增长37%/56%/24%;non-GAAP归母净利润为-1.72/1.63/3.66亿 元。基于6x2026e P/S，该行给予速腾聚创约211.4亿人民币目标市值，对应约50港币目标价，重申"买 入"评级。 在割草机器人领域，公司推出E1R和Airy两款产品，满足了割草场景中复杂的边界识别需求。在城市配 送领域，公司依托EMX、E1R与Fairy三款核心产品，已与全球90%的头部客户建立合作关系。Robotaxi 方面，速腾聚创与滴滴达成新一代Robotaxi车型定点合作，将采用单车10颗数字化激光雷达方案。北美 客户将于2025年底扩大车队规模，加速EM4与E1的量产落地。 AC系列打开长期增长空间 10月IROS大会上，公司推出的Active Camera2是业内首款将dTOF、RGB双目与IMU深度集成的一体化 传感器系统，能为机器人操作提供底层硬件级融合的3D空间感知与6自由度运动信息，被Yole Group选 为人形机器人融合感知方案的唯一 ...

速腾聚创基于SPAD-SoC与VCSEL数字化架构，构建了行业内唯一可量产的数字化激光雷 达矩阵。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜ Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，工信部于12月15日发文称，许可两款L3级自动驾驶产品。 这意味着，L3车型在政策上已实质性落地。当然，本次"放行"还设置了一些特定条件，譬如不同城 市的ODD条件不同、仍具实验性质等；但无论如何，本次落地某种程度上而言预示着L3级别将是汽 车行业新一轮竞争的关键。 而 要想L3车型真正迈入商业化应用，感知能力无疑将是"重中之重"。毕竟，在L3条件下，驾驶责任 主体将 从驾驶员切 换到汽车系统 。 在这一根本性变革下，激光雷达作为自动驾驶"感知之眼"，其 价值与要求正被重新定义，它需要发挥比以往更关键的作用，相应地也对激光雷达厂商提出了更高的 要求， 无论是单个产品的极致体验还是产品组合的多元配置。 值得注意的是， 在当前市面上的激光雷达产品中，速腾聚创的EM4是全球唯一可量产的超500线数 字化激光雷达 ——作为目前测远能力最强的车载数字化激光雷达，EM4具备300m@10%的有效测 距能力和600米 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 407 million yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.6% [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was -101 million yuan, compared to -51 million yuan in Q2 2025 and -82 million yuan in Q3 2024 [1] - The sales revenue from ADAS-related LiDAR products was 245 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.8% [1] - The revenue from robotics and other products was 142 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 157.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.3% [1] - Total sales volume of LiDAR products reached 185,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 34.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.3% [1] - The gross margin improved by 6.5 percentage points year-on-year to 23.9%, while the net margin was -24.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5 percentage points [1] Product Development and Market Position - The company has a strong order backlog benefiting from the rapid development of ADAS and high-level autonomous driving [2] - In 2025, the company’s self-developed SPAD-SoC and 2D VCSEL chips received AEC-Q series automotive certification, establishing a unique mass-producible digital LiDAR matrix [2] - The company has secured contracts with 13 automotive manufacturers for 56 vehicle models, and over 90% of global Robotaxi and Robotruck companies have partnered with the company [2] - The company has achieved contracts with 12 overseas and joint venture brands for 23 vehicle models, covering key markets in Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America [2] - The company has a total of 32 automotive manufacturers and Tier 1 suppliers with contracts for 144 vehicle models [2] Technological Advancements - The company introduced the "Active Camera2" at the IROS conference in October 2025, which is the first industry product to integrate dTOF, RGB stereo, and IMU for enhanced robotic perception [3] - The AC2 system provides 3D spatial awareness and six degrees of freedom motion information for robotic operations [3] Financial Forecast Adjustments - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 2.069 billion, 3.109 billion, and 4.313 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 2.489 billion, 3.617 billion, and 5.275 billion yuan [3] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised to -250 million, 60 million, and 460 million yuan, up from previous estimates of -280 million, 60 million, and 460 million yuan [3] - The company maintains an outperform rating despite the adjustments due to anticipated fluctuations in downstream demand [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][6][72] Core Insights - The company aims to become a global leader in robotic technology platforms, leveraging its advancements in AI and laser radar technology [25][72] - The company has seen a significant increase in laser radar sales, with a 34% year-on-year growth in total sales volume for Q3 2025 [1][9] - The company has a robust order book, benefiting from the rapid development of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and high-level autonomous driving [2][72] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 407 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year and a 10.6% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][8] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was -101 million yuan, compared to -51 million yuan in Q2 2025 and -82 million yuan in Q3 2024 [1][8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 improved by 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 23.9% [1][16] Product Development - The company has developed a unique digital laser radar matrix, including products like EM4, EMX, and E1, which have passed automotive standards certification [2][35] - The company launched the "Active Camera 2," a pioneering sensor system that integrates multiple technologies for enhanced robotic perception [3][54] - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in the robotics sector, focusing on components that enhance robotic capabilities [39][43] Market Position - The company has secured partnerships with over 90% of key players in the Robotaxi and Robotruck sectors, indicating strong market penetration [2][65] - The company has received orders from 32 automotive manufacturers for a total of 144 vehicle models, showcasing its competitive position in the market [58][60] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for digital laser radar in various applications, including autonomous vehicles and robotics [72][65]

3Q25 收入环比下降10.6%，预计4Q25 实现扭亏为盈。 EM 系列产品获得多款车型定点，Robotaxi 对雷达需求的潜力巨大。 重申"买入"评级，最新目标价为41.40 港元。 机构：华兴证券 研究员：王一鸣 4Q25 有望实现盈利，预计明年销量放量增长 3Q25 收入环比下降，预计4Q25 实现扭亏：根据速腾聚创3Q25 季报，当期收入为4.07亿元（同比持平/ 环比 -10.6%），ADAS 和机器人分别贡献2.45 亿元（同比 -25.7%/ 环比-9.8%）和1.42 亿元（同比 +157.8%/环比 -3.3%）；激光雷达总销量为18.6 万颗（同比+34.0%/环比 +17.3%），用于ADAS 和机器 人的分别为15.0 万颗（同比 +14.3%/环比+21.2%）和3.6 万颗（同比 +393.1%/环比 +3.2%）。本季度收 入下滑的主要原因是ADAS雷达单价下降至~1,600 元（二季度为~2,200 元）。当期综合毛利率为23.9% （同比+6.4ppts/ 环比 -3.8ppts），三费总额为2.63 亿元（同比 +44.8%/ 环比 +14.0%）。综合而言，调整 后（N ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$41.40, representing a potential upside of 27% from the current price of HK$32.58 [1][7][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve profitability in Q4 2025, with significant sales growth anticipated in the following year. The revenue for Q3 2025 was reported at RMB 407 million, with a decline of 10.6% quarter-on-quarter [5][8]. - The EM platform has gained market recognition, and the potential for Robotaxi is substantial, with expectations of increased demand for lidar units [6][10]. - The report projects a significant increase in radar sales, with estimates of 2.3 million units in 2026 and 3.1 million units in 2027, driven by the growth in the robotics sector [7][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 2,204 million in 2025, RMB 3,126 million in 2026, and RMB 4,038 million in 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.6% in 2025 and 41.8% in 2026 [8][9]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve significantly, with estimates of RMB -83 million in 2025, RMB 230 million in 2026, and RMB 533 million in 2027 [9][10]. - The company anticipates a gross margin of 27.3% in 2025, increasing to 30.2% in 2026 and 31.2% in 2027 [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC expresses optimism about Suton Ju Chuang (02498) benefiting from rapid growth in downstream demand due to its digital product advantages, maintaining an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 47.00, which corresponds to 10.9x and 7.1x P/S for 2025/2026, indicating a 43% upside from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 407 million, aligning with CICC's previous expectations [2] - The gross margin improved year-on-year, increasing by 6.5 percentage points to 23.9% in Q3 2025 [2] - The robotics sector showed remarkable performance, with laser radar sales in this field growing by 393.1% year-on-year and revenue increasing by 157.8% [2] - The company aims to achieve profitability in Q4 2025 [2] Group 2: ADAS Business - The EM platform's digital products have gained customer recognition, with 13 automakers securing 56 model designations [3] - The EMX platform, targeting L2+, has received 49 model designations and is expected to enter mass production in 2026, potentially becoming a key support for the ADAS business [3] - The EM4 platform has been adopted in several models, including Zeekr 9X and Zhiji LS6/LS9, and is anticipated to be a core configuration for L3 vehicles [3] - The company has secured multiple model designations from 12 overseas and joint venture brands, including major European and North American electric vehicle manufacturers, with order volumes exceeding 500,000 units [3] Group 3: Robotics and Other Businesses - The company has partnered with Didi to equip its next-generation Robotaxi with 10 units of its automotive-grade digital laser radar [4] - The company is entering the lawn mowing robot market with E1R and Airy, having established partnerships with several top 5 industry clients, with large-scale production set to begin in Q4 2025 [4] - In urban delivery, the company collaborates with 90% of leading global clients, and the newly launched Fairy has been commercialized on the New Stone Unmanned Vehicle X3 [4] - In October, the company introduced Active Camera 2, enhancing its embodied intelligence layout [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to benefit from rapid growth in downstream demand due to its digital product advantages, maintaining an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 47.00, which implies a 43% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 407 million, aligning with previous expectations [2] - Gross margin improved year-on-year by 6.5 percentage points to 23.9% in Q3 2025 [2] - The robotics sector showed significant growth, with laser radar sales increasing by 393.1% year-on-year and revenue rising by 157.8% [2] - The company aims to achieve profitability in Q4 2025 [2] ADAS Business - The new EM platform digital products have gained recognition, with 13 automakers securing 56 model designations [3] - The EMX platform, targeting L2+ vehicles, has received 49 model designations and is expected to enter mass production in 2026 [3] - The EM4 platform is already integrated into several models, including Zeekr 9X and Zhiji LS6/LS9, positioning it as a core component for L3 vehicles [3] - The company has secured multiple model designations from 12 overseas and joint venture brands, including major European and North American electric vehicle manufacturers, indicating a new growth avenue [3] Robotics and Other Businesses - The company has partnered with Didi to equip its next-generation Robotaxi with 10 units of automotive-grade digital laser radar [4] - The company is entering the lawn mowing robot market with E1R and Airy, collaborating with several top 5 industry clients, with large-scale production set to begin in Q4 2025 [4] - In urban delivery, the company has partnered with 90% of leading global clients, and the newly launched Fairy has been commercialized with the New Stone Age unmanned vehicle X3 [4] - The introduction of Active Camera2 in October enhances the company's embodied intelligence layout [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully delivered new digital lidar products and reported a third-quarter revenue of 407 million yuan, with a net profit loss of 101 million yuan, but shows potential for improvement in gross margin and profitability in the upcoming quarters [1] Group 1: ADAS Business - The ADAS digital product matrix has entered a delivery phase, with a significant increase in the number of designated models, laying the foundation for scale delivery [2] - The company has received designations from 13 automakers for 56 vehicle models, with the EMX platform achieving 49 designations since its launch [2] - The EM4 radar, recognized as an industry leader, has been installed in several models and is expected to become a core configuration under L3 regulations [2] Group 2: Robotaxi Business - The EM4+E1 digital combination scheme is accelerating penetration into the L4 market, with a recent designation for a new generation Robotaxi model from Didi [2] - The product features a high-redundancy perception scheme, indicating its entry into high-reliability application scenarios [2] - The demand for lidar products is expected to strengthen as the autonomous driving industry commercializes, positioning the Robotaxi business as a key growth driver [2] Group 3: Robotics Business - The robotics business is entering a rapid growth phase, with digital radar and AC platform products achieving breakthroughs in multiple scenarios [3] - The company’s products are being applied in leading autonomous driving manufacturers' models, with increasing demand in lawn mowing robots and unmanned agricultural machinery [3] - The introduction of the AC2 product enhances six-dimensional motion perception and three-dimensional spatial information support for robotics applications [3] Group 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains revenue forecasts of 2.4 billion, 3.73 billion, and 5.14 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit forecasts of -150 million, 190 million, and 510 million yuan [3] - The target price is set at 51.48 HKD, reflecting a premium based on comparable companies and the anticipated rapid growth in digital lidar deliveries [4]